Mater’s Musings #24: Excess Deaths

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

I’ll point out the obvious, and you can make conclusions.

The Orange line represents the average number of deaths for the five years 2015-2019. The Blue area represents the range of deaths for that same period.

The Red line represents Deaths last year, running into this year, and the Blue line represents the daily new infections of Covid.

Notice how the 2020 deaths are running BELOW the average during 2020, through the ‘infection’ spike of August, and for several months afterwards? Do you notice how 2020 deaths didn’t even break the average, during or after the spike in cases? Do you notice that at points, it is at historically low levels even after the spike? A pandemic worthy of the destruction of our society, yet deaths are at historically low levels during, and for many weeks after, a spike in cases?

Now, do you notice how the deaths start to go above the average, and even the extremes, several months after the spike and whilst the Covid infections are negligible (about 1 Nov 2020)? Do you notice that trend has continued up until today, regardless of the Covid situation? Do you think that is a result of Covid or a result of people being locked up (on and off) since April 2020? Could it have anything to do with other, untreated, undiagnosed medical issues?

Here are some clues from the same paper:

Cancer: “This is 1,149 deaths (6.0%) higher than the 2015-19 average

Diabetes: “This is 158 deaths (9.2%) higher than the 2015-19 average”

Dementia: “This is 888 deaths (17.1%) higher than the 2015-19 average”

Excess deaths are up, yet:

Influenza and pneumonia: “This is 223 deaths (22.5%) lower than the 2015-19 average”

Influenza: “There has not been a death certified due to influenza since late July 2020

Pneumonia: “The number of deaths due to pneumonia has been largely below average since late April 2020.”

Why has Influenza disappeared, and the associated Pneumonia dropped? They say that it’s because of the measures taken against Covid…yet Covid manages to survive and, at times, prosper.

12 responses to “Mater’s Musings #24: Excess Deaths”

  1. 132andBush Avatar

    I was going to post this on the OT but here might be just as appropriate.

    “Due to the risk that continues to be posed by the movement of the virus across NSW, and what that poses to a number of states including Victoria, we are further tightening the border requirement restrictions as they apply to specified worker groups for multiple entry permits,” Health Minister Martin Foley said today, adding that the Covid-19 digital certificate will be one of the preferred methods to use as proof of vaccination status.

    That’s from an article about mandatory vaccination of truck drivers for entry to Victoria.

    Forcing a medical procedure that is pointless in stopping what he states is their primary concern.

  2. mem Avatar

    If there are more people in the 70 plus group you will get more deaths relating to cancer, diabetes and dementia. However it is indeed curious that the death whisperers (pneumonia and its seasonal assistant, influenza) seem to have lost their influence. Could it just be that they haven’t abated but been morphed into Covid 19 for the death count? I know this has occurred in the UK and has distorted figures for Covid deaths by some 25%. Also the disappearance of influenza may have more to do do with when Corona virus became a notifiable disease in Australia commencing at the end of January 2020.References to read, the first from the UK which is a little out of date and doesn’t include some changes to how Corona deaths are counted but teases out the many issues of understanding the stats and a reference to when corona became notifiable in Australia and large penalties were brought in for not notifying within 24 hours, which in my view would create enormous pressure to classify a death with lung heart issues as Corona just to avoid the likelihood of a fine..

  3. Shy Ted Avatar
    Shy Ted

    Looking forward to your article about excess politicians, journos and celebrities excess deaths. Death certificates will read “Covid with comorbidities of multiple injuries”.

  4. Rorschach Avatar

    The health costs of the lockdowns… there will be more.

    Saw a preso by John Brogden on Lifeline calls – 3,500 per day. Suicides numbers are prob not high to make the stats – but the call numbers are all indicative of that stress / depression.

    Stress and depression are known factors in increased chance of cancer (and other disease) lethality.

    Also – The fact that patients don’t want to go see the doctor (clinics have COVID cases!) and doctors then can’t or won’t see a patient physically (do it on line / over the phone) means that early diagnosis may be be missed.

    I’m guessing that we will see an increased rate yet again over the next couple of years…

  5. jupes Avatar

    Point very well made Mater. Imagine a journalist bringing this graph to the attention of the Premiers during their ridiculous daily presses.

  6. mem Avatar

    Mater, is it possible to juxtapose a graph of Corona virus deaths with the drop off in influenza and pneumonia deaths, and with a marker for when corona became a notifiable disease?

  7. Miss Anthropist Avatar
    Miss Anthropist

    What’s a few lives here and there to Fascist? The ideology must come first.
    Check out our politicians. Not a skerrick of humanity or compassion amongst the lot of them. The same for their courtiers and enablers.
    Our doctors have given the hippopotamus oath the flick.
    We live in interesting times.

  8. Mater Avatar

    I’ll have a look at what’s available, and see what I can do.
    No data is really easy to get.
    They really don’t want us to do any analysis ourselves.

  9. mem Avatar

    Thanks Mater. The other way to demonstrate/estimate how much the corona figures might be inflated is show a graph of corona then subtract the 5 year average flu and pneumonia deaths less the reported flu and pneumonia figures for the period.

  10. Crossie Avatar

    Why has Influenza disappeared, and the associated Pneumonia dropped? They say that it’s because of the measures taken against Covid…yet Covid manages to survive and, at times, prosper.

    Now you are just being obstructionist, not a team player. Groupthink is now the greatest corporate value.

  11. Crossie Avatar

    That’s from an article about mandatory vaccination of truck drivers for entry to Victoria.

    I see a lot of empty supermarket shelves in our future.

    We ended up a Soviet republic with all the attendant deprivations for the sake of a seasonal cold.

  12. Pat Avatar

    The biggest issue the journo would have is getting the premier to understand the graphs.

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