“Citing new modelling”

Five million Melburnians will be freed from a months-long lockdown this week after the Victorian government accelerated the easing of restrictions, citing new modelling which has drastically cut projections for hospitalisations.

This was the lead para in the front page story in The Oz today: Melbourne lockdown: Vaccine surge delivers freedom for five million people. New modelling! That is, up until now their calculations have been wrong and they now have an improved calculation. Any chance of an apology? 

What a despicable crew of incompetents! The real change is in the government in NSW which has led the way. Dan had little choice but to follow along. 

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews.

30 thoughts on ““Citing new modelling””

  1. “…citing new modelling…”

    Decoded: We are in trouble in the polls. Re-do your work and this time the target is to get any restrictions lifted. As before, reality is irrelevant – just tell us what we want to hear!


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  2. What a despicable crew of incompetents!

    That’s the key here. Victoria’s public health bureaucracy is utterly incompetent and making it up as it goes along according to “modelling” that makes up whatever the modellers think the bureaucrats paying for the advice want to hear.

    The top echelon of the health bureaucracy, like Brett Sutton, got their jobs because they’re political activists who share the same mad ideology as their political masters — so arrogant they believe, for example, the human race controls the earth’s climate and should be punished for its sins against the animist gods that control their thinking.

    The health bureaucrats have no skin in the game and, in some cases, have been rewarded with salary increases in the past two years for being wrong.

    They’re not only incompetent, but must answer to charges of corruption in the iFoods case – exactly what you’d expect of political hoodlums who have no oversight and are out of control.


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  3. If climate change has taught us anything, it is that “modelling” is total BS. It’s that complicated process that the experts use to come to the conclusion they are paid to reach. Too detailed for the average punter to understand.


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  4. Why are so many people afraid to live?

    To paraphrase Dan Bongino from memory:

    Yes, many people have died from covid.
    Yes, many more will die from it.
    Yes, I may be one of them.
    But if, because of the above, I cower in fear under my bed, seeing no-one and going nowhere, I may as well already be dead.
    I choose to live.
    And I’m not looking back.


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  5. Mad Dictator Dan’s “modelling” isn’t worth the paper it’s written on, and is about as reliable as climate change modelling and Michael Mann’s hockey stick.


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  6. citing new modelling which has drastically cut projections for hospitalisations.
    and…
    Vaccine surge delivers freedom for five million people.

    Aside from the “freedom” bullshit, is it true to say that the supposed “modelling… projections” are driven to any material extent by vaccination rates?
    Or is the headline just really “All hail the vaccine! Everyone must worship the vaccine!”?


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  7. “…about as reliable as climate change modelling and Michael Mann’s hockey stick.”

    Perhaps more on point to refer to the BSE modelling scare in the UK – 1M+ drooling idiots expected, in reality, at best several hundred, if that.
    Same people who modelled COVID.
    Yeah, well…

    It’s really, really simple: when you don’t pay a price for being wrong, there’s no reason to be careful, and every reason to pump up your numbers to make headlines – especially when those in power want and need a big scare.

    And here we are.

    “Can’t be too careful, can we?”
    YES, yes we can be! And you’re doing it now. So F-off and leave my health choices up to me.

    “You don’t have the right to infect other people!”
    I don’t? So when are the primary schools being shut down permanently? After all, every parent knows their primary school kids come home from school with a new cold every week or so, and pass it around the family, so SHUT THEM DOWN NOW! You don’t have the right to make me sick!

    “It’s deadly!”
    So can be crossing the road, catching a plane, bus or train, getting out of bed, taking a shower… get the F over yourself. You’ll die at some point, regardless of when or how, and regardless of how hard you try to avoid it. Just get on with your life and let me do the same. You take the risks you want, I’ll take the ones I want, OK?

    “We’ve never seen anything like it!”
    Except for plague, smallpox, leprosy, polio … the list is endless. We found a way to either live with them or beat them – every single one. This one is no different – except in this case, it’s not some historical “nobodies” at risk, it’s YOU. Stop being so ignorant and selfish.

    “You just want to kill Grandma for your own monetary benefit”
    No, I don’t want anyone to die, but that doesn’t mean they won’t. Destroying wealth is a greater risk to health and longevity than pretty much anything and everything else. Besides, maybe you should ask her: “Hey Granny, do you want to live another couple of years and destroy your kids and grandkids future, or take your chances with our best effort to save you?” I reckon 90+% would say: “Don’t worry about me, I’ve had a good life, the little ones are more important than me, make sure they have a good life too.” But you won’t do that, will you?


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  8. It’s really, really simple: when you don’t pay a price for being wrong, there’s no reason to be careful…

    Correct. Giving power to politicians and public servants who’ve never had jobs producing items of value in the real economy, but are paid by people who do, amounts to a coup d’etat against taxpayers.

    The system is broken. Revolution now!


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  9. The point is that, between Model #1 produced by the Carol Burnett Institute and Model #2 nothing has changed.
    Vax rates followed the predicted projections within a day or two of key targets, and lockdown settings didn’t change.
    The only thing was that the Carol Burnett Institute got it horribly wrong on every score … infection rate, severity requiring hospitalisation/ICU and ultimately deaths.
    FMD, six weeks ago it was Armageddon.
    The only difference is that, six weeks ago, Hunchback wanted to make the case for lockDans to suppress it to zero.
    Now he wants to make the case for opening up because he finally realises he can’t get the genie back in the bottle.
    On both occasions the Carol Burnett Institute served up exactly what he wanted.
    Is Steve Bracks chair of the Carol Burnett Institute?


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  10. Every government decision nowadays seems to be done via modelling. Because, science.

    This way they don’t have to make their own decisions, they can’t be held responsible and will always have an excuse, a get out of jail card.


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  11. Tom says:
    October 18, 2021 at 4:26 pm
    The system is broken. Revolution now!

    Yes!!
    It’s been broken for decades, but now the power balance has shifted so far, they don’t even pretend to give a shit about governing competently or fairly.
    Rank lying and deceit every.fucking.day.

    In a righteous society, they would all be tried and executed, with prejudice.
    Instead they’ll retire to even more highly comfy sinecures, pensions and trailing emoluments.

    Exactly the wrong incentives for encouraging to do the right thing.


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  12. Now he wants to make the case for opening up because he finally realises he can’t get the genie back in the bottle.

    Also, the fact that support for him in the polls is apparently dropping must have something to do with it.
    No doubt Dictator Dan puts his political survival above any other consideration.


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  13. Models can only ever give results according to what has been input into them.
    Garbage in & garbage out.
    But then, it never was about ‘saving’ anyone’s life.
    Because if it had been, there would be no lockdowns or masks, which we have known for decades do not work.
    Nor would there be mandates for leaky ‘vaccines’, which are dangerous, do not work and have not been tested to any meaningful extent.
    It’s about more power & control. Always.


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  14. Five million Melburnians will be freed from a months-long lockdown this week after the Victorian government accelerated the easing of restrictions, citing new modelling which has drastically cut projections for hospitalisations.

    Bloody hell a months lockdown! I haven’t been able to get out of my house since early July and it’s almost the end of October.! Who writes this crap? And for every day of every week 5 million people have suffered. And only 120 people have died who mostly were already in their twilight years or dying of other causes, but whose deaths have been used by the health mafia and politicians to blackmail and repress all they leave behind.


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  15. Reminds me of the bit in Applebaums book on the Soviet caused Ukrainian famine.

    A few years after the famine Stalin wanted a census to show how the country was thriving.
    No one told the census takers and compilers.
    They dutifully reported the real numbers.
    That was suppressed, the people doing the figures dutifully found themselves traitors and wreckers right down to the actual bloke who knocked on the doors to get numbers.
    A lot were shot and the rest Siberiaed.
    The new census takers were wise enough to find the right numbers first go.


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  16. “It’s been broken for decades, but now the power balance has shifted so far, they don’t even pretend to give a shit about governing competently or fairly.”

    It’s not so much that they get it wrong – everyone makes mistakes – it’s that they will never admit they made a mistake. THAT is where our politics is broken – inability to admit mistakes.

    I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’d be more than happy to vote for someone who stuffed something up badly providing they were wiling and able to say “Oops! Sorry, we got that wrong. Undoing it now, and trying a different approach…”
    Mainly because the “problems” that they now want to fix are either 1) ones that have been around forever, and no-one has “the answer”, so we’re still looking or need to accept a compromise; or 2) brand new and no-one knows how to “fix” them. So I personally don’t expect they will get it right the first time – I expect mistakes. But I also expect mistakes to be acknowledged, undone and another, different, attempt made. Instead, all we seem to get is “we didn’t do it enough, so let’s go harder on what we already know doesn’t work”. Arrrgh!

    Mayhap what we need is to have all such attempts to “fix” things have a pre-defined and “unfudgable” criteria for success/failure and a sunset clause that says “if you don’t meet your pre-defined goals, these rules go away”. Give us a “best case”, “worst case” and “most likely case” – if you are outside the best/worst case, scrap it and try a different way. Civil service / “advisor” status and continued employment reliant on NOT having the majoroity of stuff “scrapped”. IOW, incentive to measure what’s important (rather than making important what can be measured), and incentive to find solutions that actually work.

    Sigh. Never happen though – sadly. Or if it did, the media and opposition pollies would castigate the people doing it as idiots because they admitted they got it wrong. The pollies is fair enough, but the media? Yeah, they are the problem, alright.


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  17. We need reform on how public experts are chosen.

    If they are going to be making policy, I expect them to be elected.

    I don’t think that is the problem. I think the major problem is that we don’t see their work. Same goes for CHO advice. The advice is generated in a black box. The government and the court stenographers then talk about the Science™. It’s akin to only publishing the results without any methods or data package; it’s contemptible.


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  18. Just called Vinnie’s to protest the ‘show me your papers’ routine before you can shop in one of their stores. I have a lot of Mum’s stuff still in storage which I was going to donate. Into a skip with it now.

    Anyway, the switchboard chick put me onto the general manager, for whom I left a message.

    The interesting thing was that the switch operator said she was taking angry call after angry call, which is encouraging. Apparently there are still a few Australians who object to having some blue-rinsed matron behind a charity shop counter lay down the law for her fellow citizens.


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  19. Steve there was speculation of a federal election this year and with lockdowns it would make it difficult for the PM to campaign in the states but now that he going overseas things have changed.
    When an election is called the states would only need one case to lockdown again and 14 days quarantine.
    moderated

  20. The only “modelling” the Premiers have seen are the polling figures and the explosive growth of the United Australia Party membership. Lockdowns will cease simply because they don’t want to go into the next election cycle with an earnest looking Craig Kelly on the TV every two minutes shouting “No More Lockdowns.”


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  21. Hasn’t been a good leader anywhere in Australia since John Gorton. If only a law was made where only bastards wearing there arses on their faces could be a prime minister or premier. Happy days.


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  22. “…citing new modelling…”

    They know that even with 2000 cases a day they need new modelling showing they can open otherwise it’s tumbrils and piano wire.

    [what’s the bet that Dan shooting “freedom” protesters in the streets has been noticed overseas and the word has come down : too early too much – don’t give the game away!]


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  23. The real change is in the government in NSW which has led the way. Dan had little choice but to follow along.

    So the clown leader of one state must follow the clown leader of another state because apart from being a complete clown he has less compliant citizens?


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