BUSINESS AS USUAL
Pressing on with the new energy story that was sketched here not long ago.
The so-called green energy transition has hit the wall. Worldwide, trillions of dollars of investment have shifted the contribution of organic (hydrocarbon or fossil) fuel from about 82% of total energy use to 80 or 81%. In Australia we are one coal station closure from crisis in the power supply every night when the wind is low.
According to the old narrative, South Australia is showing the way. Lately we read a tweet:
South Australia does it again!
70.7% of SA’s electricity was generated from renewable in 2022. A new record and up from 65.7% in calendar year 2021. By comparison the International Energy Agency estimates Denmark 68.9%, Ireland 33%, Germany 26%, USA 12%, China 11%.
As for the performance of South Australia, simply observing the balance of power at sunrise and sunset demonstrates that the state is importing power and burning gas almost every day. The exceptions are when the wind is a long way above the average Capacity Factor of 29%. This has been reported many times before and it is a message that has to spread wider, as indeed it will as the National Information Network is rolled out.
This morning at 7am Sydney time SA was importing 15% of the demand while 20% of local generation was gas. The wind was well above average at CF 40!
Incidentally Tasmania (the battery of the nation) was importing 40% of demand, drawing (mostly) coal power from Victoria. At the time 73% of Victoria’s power came from coal, so you can see that both SA and Tasmania will be in trouble when Daniel Andrews closes the coal stations.
Wind literacy is fundamental to explaining the death of the old narrative. This note contains an appendix on wind-watching. But be warned, wind-watching can be time-consuming and habit forming, so Watch Responsibly!
Fake Weather News
Climate alarm sustained by fake news that ignores the clear evidence of public records of previous fires, floods, droughts and storms. Chris Kenny recently published a good article on this. Our colleague Peter Smith is active in this space as well. Graham Lloyd in The Australian wrote well on this today.