Here is H.G. Wells explaining in his book Anticipations (1901) why the steam engine rather than windmills became preferred for pumping water from low-lying coal mines in England:
“Wind was extremely inconvenient for the purpose of pumping, because in these latitudes it is inconstant: it was costly, too, because at any time the labourers might be obliged to sit at the pit’s mouth for weeks together whistling for a gale.”
One hundred and twenty-three years later and that fickle wind is still playing up. Wind turbines produce only about 30 percent of their registered capacity. So you need to build more than three gigawatt’s worth to get one gigawatt. Ditto (and more so) for solar panels even in sunny Australia. The attendant need to seriously overbuild is a problem in itself but it is, by far, the least of four problems. The other three: extensive land usage, interminable stretches of pylons and wires, and those damnable dunkelflautes.
It matters not whether the whole country is covered with wind and solar eruptions, on windless nights there is nothing. Aught, nought, zilch and zippo. And if you think batteries will fill the breach you have another think coming.
The US National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s middling estimate for the capital cost of a battery in 2030 is US$326 per kWh. That’s about $487 per kWh in Aussie dollars. Let’s say our modest dunkelflaute is simply a windless night lasting 10 hours, when a very modest continuous stream of one gigawatt is required. A battery to fill the gap would cost close to $5 billion dollars. And, best to remember, when empty, batteries have to be recharged from spare power.
Now, first, imagine backing up the NEM which at times can require well over 30 gigawatts. Electrical engineer Paul Miskelly analysed data produced by AEMO for the first half of 2010. He found that there were 58 intervals of various durations in which the output from the whole fleet of wind farms across Eastern Australia fell below 2 percent of registered capacity; the longest for 19 hours.
Now, second, appreciate that the demand for electricity is growing fast. In 1985 the world’s demand for electricity was estimated at 9,754 terawatt hours (TWh). By 2023 this had increased to 29,479 TWh – a threefold increase. AEMO in its latest ISP, forecasts that Australia’s electricity consumption will increase by just little over two times between now and 2050. Unless the Greens have their way and we are battered back to the Stone Age, this is a gross underestimation. Electrification driven by mad governments, population growth, and the demands of data processing will see electricity consumption tripling at least.
Now, finally, imagine in 2050 that we have no coal or nuclear and that just a dribble of gas has managed to survive the onslaught of green and indigenous lawfare.
Well, of course, it doesn’t stack up, does it? Blind Freddy can see that. Which brings me to the real problem, the fifth problem, which spawns the four problems which I mentioned above. That is that Chris Bowen and his ilk are far blinder than Blind Freddy. They live in their own world utterly divorced from reality.
Quite so Peter. The Greens and Labor have no grasp of the laws of physics, economics, future energy demand and much more. If they did they wouldn’t be Greens and lefties anyway. If I may, I’d add a sixth obstacle, being the fact that a sizeable proportion of Australia’s export economy comes from coal, iron ore, tin, uranium and bauxite. These prop up the Australian tax base, and the State government exchequers. Without them there is no money for public ‘servants’.
How thick are these people?
Meanwhile, Bowen et al have just commissioned an inquiry into the viability of Dutton’s nuclear power proposal.
Guess what they’ll find?
Mind you, Dutton left himself open to this move by announcing a policy with no detail.
This is the mystery. I can see that, you can see that, but for some sort of weirdness Bowen and the Labor Party cannot.
But if blackouts start the voters will have their chrome-plated baseball bats out, which you’d think even Labor brains trust kiddies would wincingly anticipate.
The weirdness emanates from Labor’s existential battle against the Greens in inner city seats.
Where do you start trying to get the idiots to see the reality?
The point is that you can’t.
They will only listen when the power grid goes down, and that is too late.
Do we have the spare transformers and other stuff to get it back up?
Considering their ability to plan ahead, my money would be on there being no replacement gear.
Your last point Peter, that Blown is worse than Blind Freddie matters not when he has his hand in our collective back pocket and we have to wait for an election to get the chance to remove it..
There is an eighth problem. It is that renewable energy is causing electricity prices to increase. This impacts every step in the production/supply chain right through to retailers. It is a ratchet effect that compounds upwards at each step.
After paying increased power bills consumers have less in their pockets to spend and cut back purchases. Small businesses are the first to feel the crunch and are going bust at a rate of knots. This will rapidly multiply to affect medium to large businesses that can’t absorb or pass on costs. The government has been blaming greedy capitalists, supermarkets, the wars in Ukraine and Middle East but not the real cause i.e. it’s foolish, expensive and destructive energy policy.
The demands of an AI infused world will require enormous amounts of electricity. Microsoft recommissioning the Three Mile Island reactor is just the start.
The sixth problem:
All of the spruikers, fellators and berators who are junking our perfectly sensible and decentralized power supplies in favour of these p*ssweak internationalized subsidy farms are- like Wells- Communists. Internationally organized and j*hadically single-minded, they are a sinister cancer which has penetrated deep into every institution, from the King to kindergarten.
They are living in a world where they pass laws and things “happen”.
Anything negative is unforeseen or proof they havent gone hard enough.
How are we going to communicate there is no climate emergency?
how are we going to reply the mocking of the entertainment industry – the anti oil movt came from pop artists , then to people like Hanson young and Garrett and then to the wider community.
how are you going to convince women there is no climate emergency.
how are you going to stand up to the global pressure like trump has?