Rafe’s Roundup 25 Sept

Calling Energy and Emergency Services Ministers

Here is a thought, what is the plan to respond to the collapse of the electricity grid? Is there adequate backup with generators to keep hospitals and other emergency services running? Complete with fuel. And what else? What about the water and gas supplies. And everything else like lifts, traffic lights, cash registers, petrol browsers and ATMs.

What are the messages that all jurisdictions should take away from the South Australian blackout in 2016? Of course everyone assumes that it will never happen again and heroic load sheding should ensure that is the case but lets at least contemplate the worst case scenario as a matter of due diligence. There is an Australian Emergency Management Arrangements Handbook with a lot of words in it, as you would expect, but are the plans in preparation?

The dark side of intermittent energy

A wordy and scary piece on the toxic impact of the Unreliable Energy industry, especially in exotic places. Skip through to pick out the eyes on the impact of wind and solar developments and especially the role of big corporations in the US power industry and the extraction of rare earths in Asia.

Lithium-ion battery mining and production are determined to be worse for the climate than the production of fossil fuel vehicle batteries in an article from The Wall Street JournalAccording to scientists measuring cumulative energy demand (CED)production of the average lithium-ion battery uses three times more electrical energy compared to a generic battery. 

Recent wind droughts

On the morning of Thursday 22 just before sunrise  South Australia (the wind leading state) was importing two thirds of its demand and the local generation was 80% gas!

In the evening at dinnertime WA was down to 1% of power from the wind. In the East the wind was doing better, delivering 3% of the demand at a capacity factor of 7 (severe drought.) Victoria is the big wind state with more capacity than SA, though not per capita, and their windmills contributed 1% of demand at capacity 1.4%. Their capacity factor was below 5% for the previous 24 hours!

Approaching 10pm nothing has changed, the wind across the SE is delivering 4% because the total demand has gone down, still the capacity factor in SA is 1.2 and in Victoria 2.8! 

On Friday morning at sunrise the wind across the NEM was delivering 2.6% of demand at CP 5.5% (of installed or nameplate capacity.) South Australia is importing half its demand with gas providing almost 90% of local generation, wind CP 3.5%. In Victoria the wind is delivering 2%, CP 2.3%, Queensland 1% CP 6% and Tasmania 4% CP 7%.

The NEM has been technically in drought (CP less than 10%) since 10 am Thursday, in SA since 1 am on Thursday, and in Tasmania and Victoria the drought started at noon on Wednesday.

On Saturday the NEM recovered although the capacity farcor stayed under 20% all day (two thirds of the average) while SA and Victoria were under 5% for much of the day.

On Sunday the NEM trended down to reach drought level (10) at noon. Shortly after sunrise SA wa importing 45% of demand wth 40% of local generation from gas. The picture shows the rather limited amount of green (wind) even though only SA was technically in drought. Imagine the extra windmills required to provide hot breakfasts and coffee!

Roundup of partners and fellow-travellers

Drop in to the sites and see what they are up to!

CPAC Speakers for this yearRegister Volunteer to help

IPA         Climate and energy program CIS          The Sydney Institute

Menzies Research Centre Mannkal Economics Education Foundation          

Advance Australia Taxpayers Alliance Australian Institute for Progress

Not enough “oats” in the European power supply?

Everyone knows the sad story about the farmer who decided to save some money by reducing the ration of oats for his horse. He started with a reduction of 10% and it didn’t seem to matter so he cut another 10% and then another. He was saving money hand over fist but then the animal unfortunately died.

Over the last decade or three the nations of the western world started to reduce the amount of fossil fuel “oats” in their power “rations.” In Australia the process started in 2012 with the closure of Munmorah in NSW (600MW), Swanbank, Q, 500 and Collinsville Q 180. Then in 2014 it was Wallerawang in NSW 1000, Morwell, Vic 190 and Redbank NSW 144. In 2015 Anglesea in Victoria, 160, in 2016 it happened in South Austraiia with Northern 546 and Playford 240. In 2017, the biggest of all, Hazelwood in Victoria, 1760.

That took 7600 MW out of the total of 30,500 at the start of 2012, a 25% reduction. This year the phased closure of Liddell in NSW started with one of the four 500MW turbines going out of service, with the process to be complete in April 2023. In recent months a combination of planned (maintenance) outages and unplanned outages combined with issues in the supply of gas caused major price increases and alarm about the stability of the system.

The horse died when the ration of oats slipped below a sustainable level. How many more oats (coal power capacity) need to be taken out of the system to kill it? Practically everyone who has an opinion insists that the closure of coal stations has to be accelerated, or at least the expansion of wind and solar power, storage capacity and major interconnections has to be ramped up with all possible dispatch. That cannot work, as described below.

Now in Europe we can see what happens when you go too far, apparently it happens very quickly when you get to the tipping point. This one appears to be genuine, unlike the fake one we are supposed to dread with global warming.

Trigger warning, this material is likely to be distressing if you manage to conjure up a feeling for the desperation and desolation in a Britain where 60% of their manufacturing could be about to collapse, while household bills for many people are likely to exceed their disposable income.

Meantime, the same forces are de-industrializing Europe right before our eyes. Industry after industry is throttling back, shutting down, or considering doing so if the energy chaos continues. Britain is staring at the potential shutdown of 60 percent of its manufacturers. Germany and most of Europe are on the same track.

Never say it couldn’t happen here!

See also Jo Nova’s account of the situation in Europe.

There are companies that started business in the 1800s and survived two world wars but may not last the coming winter. It’s all changing so fast, they lament. With energy costs rising three to sixfold, the highest energy industries are folding. The first casualties were fertilizer, aluminium and zinc, and now in the second wave, the glass makers and tilers are coming undone, and with them, whole towns that support them will unravel too:

‘Crippling’ Energy Bills Force Europe’s Factories to Go Dark

How many power-intensive Australian firms will survive the impending increase in power prices?

Postscript. Why we can’t build RE capacity to get out of the hole.

As the saying goes, when you are in a hole, first of all stop digging. We are in a serious hole with the power supply but the standard response is to keep digging by accelerating the building of wind and solar, storage, interconnectors, hydrogen.

That will not work due to the combined effect of the following factors.

  1. Wind droughts. These are well-known in some circles but not among the people in AEMO and other advisory bodies who planned the destruction of the conventional power supply.
  2. Need for continuous supply – no gaps. Hence the term “choke point” that I used to convey the sense of “rapid death” when the wind power supply is too low to keep the lights on.
  3. No storage
  4. No capacity to exchange power with neighbours.

The reason why more windmills and solar panels will not help at the “choke point” is that when you have no RE on a windless night, no amount of additional capacity will help. The horses will get out of the paddock through gaps in the fence, regardless of how high you build it. Building the high parts even higher will not keep the horses in. We can increase the penetration of RE in the system by building more capacity but the gaps persist (so why bother?)

As for storage and the calls for “Storage Targets”, we don’t have any effective storage at grid scale at present and there is no prospect of any in sight, despite the number of “big battery” projects in the pipeline. Add them up in terms of MWhrs (instead of MW) and see how much you get compared with the demand on a windless night.

Wind watch update

This morning just before sunrise the wind was generating 7% of power across SE Australia at a capacity factor of 12% (almost down to the 10% for a severe wind drought.) South Australia (the wind leading state) was importing two thirds of its demand and the local generation was 80% gas! A bit of a gap there!

This evening at dinnertime WA was down to 1% of power from the wind. In the East the wind was doing much better, delivering 3% of the demand at a capacity factor of 7 (severe drought.) Victoria is the big wind state with more capacity than SA, though not per capita, and their windmills contributed 1% of demand at capacity 1.4%. Their capacity factor was below 5% for the previous 24 hours!

Approaching 10pm nothing has changed, the wind across the SE is delivering 4% because the total demand has gone down, still the capacity factor in SA is 1.2 and in Victoria 2.8! This is a shot of the NemWatch widget, it is a live display so it will change.

This is the AEMO data dashboard, this is also live, this display shows the flows between the states, see the Fuel Mix tab at the top to find what the different sources are providing.

The wind supply over 24 hours. This is the rolling 24-hour display at Aneroid Energy. Tick and untick the boxes to see individual states. This is the 24-hour display for all sources on the same page.

Our biggest peacetime policy blunder ever

Epic Failure of Planning for the Green Energy Transition

Briefing Note 22.9                September 2022

Purpose: To signal that the transition from coal cannot go any further without nuclear power.

The critical issue.

The combination of wind droughts and the lack of grid-scale storage dictate that any further loss of coal-fired power capacity will pose serious dangers whenever the wind supply is low.

This means that the green power transition cannot accelerate and it may have to stop until nuclear power is up and running.

An epic failure of planning

Readily available evidence on the frequency and extent of wind droughts across SE Australia (the NEM) was apparently ignored or discounted.

Billions of dollars have been spent on assets which cannot replace conventional power in the grid and would be stranded without subsidies and mandates to use wind and solar power.

Imagine a gigantic irrigation scheme with no reliable water supply!

Many billions more will have to be spent to keep coal and gas facilities on line until nuclear power is available.

Conclusion.

The decision to allow subsidised and mandated intermittent energy to connect to the grid is probably the greatest peacetime public policy blunder in Australian history.

Supporting information.

How it is working out on Europe – update from Jo Nova.

TheAustralian situation in a nutshell.

Mark Mills explains why the green energy transition is not happening.

Mark Mills on the limit of wind and solar power.

A thorough comparison of the cost of different power mixes, taking account of the firming required for wind and solar. Source 

The real cost of intermittent energy and how it kills reliable power providers.

The failure of RE is demonstrated in South Australia.

For example, on the morning of Monday 19 September at breakfast time, half of the demand for power in SA was imported and 80% of local generation came from gas.

Rafe’s Roundup Sept 17

James McPherson Report

The disintegration of Russian/German economic affairs – first shots of a new trade war

The Chinese fast trains trillion dollar debt disaster.

Energy Matters

Idiots guide to the Hydrogen Hype.  Pay attention Twiggy!

The green energy transition has hit the wall. Save our Coal Power Stations!

More Roundups from the archive

Roundup of partners and fellow-travellers

CPAC Speakers for this year. Register Volunteer to help

IPA         Climate and energy program

CIS          The Sydney Institute

Menzies Research Centre

Mannkal Economics Education Foundation          

Taxpayers Alliance

Advance Australia

Australian Institute for Progress

What is happening and why

Guest post from Cardimona

There is not a shred of evidence that CO2 has the capacity to “trap heat” or affect the climate “dangerously”. No scientific research paper has ever empirically proven that oft-repeated assertion. It has always been based on faulty maths, contrived research, and propaganda.

That’s why sea levels haven’t risen, cyclones aren’t more frequent, and we still have Arctic ice.

“Climate change/global warming” is a massive lie, one of the three biggest lies in history. It has been spread by the billionaires’ club who currently call themselves the World Economic Forum – and their supporters in the Chinese Communist Party.

The WEF used to be mainly known as ‘The Bilderberg Group’, and before that ‘The Club of Rome’.

The WEF tell the big climate lie, and others, because of their insane desire for ultimate power. When you have all the money in the world, and control of the world’s economies through companies like BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, all that is left to crave is ultimate power.

And, as we know, power corrupts, and absolute power tends to corrupt absolutely.

All around the world, small businesses were crushed in the name of a “very deadly and highly contagious” disease – which turned out to be nothing of the sort. That advice came from the WEF-controlled WHO, and massive wealth was transferred from the middle class to WEF members.

The damage to global supply chains was done deliberately, to suppress small business resurgence.

Then there were all the other lock-stepped responses to covid of so many governments. They all deployed measures that defied traditional medical processes and procedures, disregarded laws, ignored established pandemic plans, and created far more medical problems than they prevented.

That was planned in the “Operation Lock Step” chapter of the Rockefeller Foundation’s 2010 document “Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development”.

The WEF is quite open about their intentions for humanity. We’ll live in pods, eat bugs, own nothing, and be happy. We’ll be stripped of our properties and superannuation and, if our “social credit score” remains OK and we don’t generate too much “carbon”, we’ll get a “universal basic income”.

All as described in WEF chairman Klaus Schwab’s books “Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution” and “The Great Reset”.

What are our politicians doing about this? Well, 60% of them are “sheeple” – unquestioning herd animals. Around 20% are WEF-trained subversives. About 17% are awake to the WEF but have been compromised. The remainder are awake and uncompromised but ridiculed as “conspiracy theorists”.

And if there were no such thing as “conspiracies” we wouldn’t have a word for them or provisions for them in law.

Humanity has a destiny out amongst the stars, but we will not reach them if we allow ourselves to be crushed by this secret society of evil, inbred, globalist conspirator families who have been plotting and working towards the destruction of our nations and our enslavement for centuries.

We can win this war of elites versus commoners, but only if everyone who knows these truths speaks out in every way possible to awaken those who remain oblivious to it all.

Roundup 13 Sept

Wind at 7 this morning. Across the NEM the wind is delivering 8% of demand at 20% of capacity (the average is 29%.). Victoria and Tasmania are deep in drought with practically no wind and Tasmania is burning diesel to protect the level of water in the dams.

SA is exporting power to Victoria while 40% of local generation is gas.

Three quarters of the power across the NEM is coming from coal and gas, with 16% from hydro and 3% from solar.

Urgent Alert from Jo Novathe moulding of young minds by social media.

It’s like the West left their children alone in a room with The Chinese Communist Party

Karl Popper got a scare when he first saw populism in the US in 1950 during a presidential election. He delivered a talk to the Mont Pelerin Society on Public Opinion and Liberal Principles, warning that public opinion is not accountable and it can be manipulated.

Energy Matters

As central banks obsess over far-off dangers, a tsunami of energy-price bankruptcies approaches.

From the Wall Street Journal, Picked up from David Blackmon’s Energy Absurdities

Net Zero Watch from the Global Warming Policy Forum.

Pan down the page to sign up for graphic updates on the European debacle of power policy under the influence of net zero fantasies.

Power prices in GB and the other European nations. Not a pretty sight!

Bias in The Australia Institute which poses as an independent think tank.

Throw enough mud and it sticks, and TAI’s partisan analysis of climate change and energy leaches into the public debate like a toxic sludge. TAI is often quoted by The Guardian Australia, and then regurgitated online in blogs such as Renew Economy, Crikey, The Saturday Paper and The Conversation. One could be forgiven for thinking TAI is an extension of the Greens political party; their anti-fossil fuel headlines touted by the likes of Zali Steggall on social media.

More Roundups from the archivea blast from the ’90s

Roundup of partners and fellow-travellers (to be expanded)

CPAC speakers for CPAC 2022 REGISTER VOLUNTEER

Institute of Public Affairs        Net Zero Project

The Sydney Institute

The Menzies Research Institute.

Mannkal Economic Education Foundation              

The Taxpayers Alliance.

Advance Australia.

Australian Institute for Progress.

Rafe’s Roundup Returns

Rafe’s Roundup appeared in the quarterly Policy magazine from the Centre for Independent Studies in the 1990s and surfaced again in the old Catallaxy where the idea was to remind readers of the range of liberal/conservative organizations in Australia with links to their sites.

This morning, James McPherson on the hypocrisy and divisiveness of “reconciliation”. The Manhattan Contrarian on the responsibility of California and New York to press on with green insanity.

Jo Nova on the green exploitation of tragic floods in Pakistan to promote their agenda.

From the archive. Original Roundups.

Wind watch 10 Sept 2022

While the transition from coal and gas in the western world, including Australia, has hit the wall, all the talk in progressive circles is about accelerating the transition with massive expenditure on intermittent generation, transmission lines and storage. Parallel worlds in collision!

Trillions of dollars spent over 20 years have shifted the needle on the share of fossil fuels in gross power output from 86% to 84%!

Mark Mills explains in two 5-minute videos why the green energy transition is not happening

Mark Mills on the limit of wind and solar power

South Australia is the wind-leading state in Australia, they even blew up their last coal stations to prove the point. Now they demonstrate the failure of the green transition because whenever the wind is low, like this morning, they import power and burn a lot of gas, sometimes diesel as well!

Across the NEM at 7am the wind was good, 40% of installed capacity compared with the average of 29% and it was delivering 20% of the demand for power. Coal provided two thirds of demand, hydro 6% and solar 4%.

In SA the wind was 20% of installed capacity, 40% of demand was imported and 35% of local generation was gas.

A beginners guide to climate science

Triggerwarming: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Global Warming (But were afraid to ask). By Jeffrey Grimshaw.

This is a lavishly illustrated introduction to climate and energy issues that is accessible for people who do not need the amount of detail in the important books by Ian Plimer and the series Climate Change: The Facts from the Institute of Public Affairs.

The book begins with a survey of the damage caused by the western obsession with reducing the supply of airborne plant food, CO2, the breath of life. It covers the lives lost by taking corn out food chain to put ethanol in petrol tanks, the environmental impact, the corruption of science and the perversion of education, the degradation of public debate and the detrimental impact on the mental health of children, the proliferation of regulations perpetrated by scientifically illiterate bureaucrats and politicians.

You can read the Introduction and the first chapter in the sample of the book on line at the Amazon site