Every now and then I peak above the parapet and regale Cats with news from the EV front. As a year has passed since the last update, I have girded my loins and offer the following for your information.
The major manufacturers have released assorted production comments in the past few months:
- Toyota – investment of $100 billion over the next decade with a minimum of 30 vehicles to be offered by 2030. They expect to be selling 3.5 million EVs per year by 2030. Hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles (including light trucks) are under development and they are convinced hydrogen fuel cell has a bright future.
- VW – Volkswagen’s CEO recently said “as much electrification as possible, as much hydrogen as necessary”. VW see EV cars for people and hydrogen fuel cell for heavy vehicles and other requirements. VW is investing $86 billion from 2021-25 in EVs with more from 2026 onwards. By 2030, they expect over 50% of all VW group (inc Audi, Bentley, Porsche, Skoda etc.) sales to be EV and achieving 100% EV sales by 2040.
- Hyundai/Kia – 23 EVs by 2025 and a further 17 models by 2030. Minimum of $22 billion investment and global EV sales exceeding 2 million per annum by 2030. Hydrogen fuel cell passenger and light trucks in extensive pre-production testing and Hyundai has commenced investing in various hydrogen refuelling facilities. EVs first, and hydrogen to follow.
- Ford – Ford announced it is splitting its business into two separate divisions. The ‘E’ division will be responsible for the all-electric vehicles whilst the ‘Blue’ division will develop internal combustion models. In March 2022, the Blue division registered a patent for a combustion engine running on hydrogen with the U.S Patent and Trademark Office. Meanwhile, Ford announced that its entire vehicle range offered in Europe will be electric by 2030.
- General Motors – GM plans to completely phase out vehicles using internal combustion engines by 2035 including SUVs and those giant utes they call ‘pick-ups’. $35 billion investment to 2025. GM have partnered with Liebherr-Aerospace to develop fuel cell technology for aircraft and other applications.
- Mercedes – Last year the European Commission voted to uphold the ban on the sale of new petrol or diesel ICE passenger cars starting in 2035. Mercedes claims it will have an all- electric line-up by 2030. Mercedes have shelved their research into hydrogen power and will focus exclusively on EVs.
It doesn’t really matter where you look – BMW, Volvo, Renault, Mitsubishi, Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan, Fiat et al – the answer is the same from every manufacturer. They are all moving to EVs and many are active in hydrogen fuel cell research. To be fair, some manufacturers such as Aston Martin, Ferrari, Lotus, McLaren and others have no choice if they want to continue to sell their cars in Europe. Many European countries are imposing sales bans from 2030 and no later than 2035 on new ICE petrol/diesel vehicles including hybrids.
Of course, the US market is key and in August 2021, President Biden announced a target that by 2030, half of the vehicles sold in the United States will be battery electric, fuel-cell or plug-in hybrid. This matched the major US automakers plans for the inevitable future of electric vehicles with GM pledging that 100% of its cars sold would be zero-emission by 2035 whilst Ford announced that 40% of its US vehicles sold by 2030 will be electric. Coupled with EV imports of foreign manufacturers, it’s likely that Biden’s target will be achieved.
But why are we doing this? Simple really.
Transport, in all its forms, is estimated to produce some 24% of global carbon dioxide emissions with passenger vehicles and trucks contributing 75% of that total (45% and 30% respectively). Aviation (12%) and shipping (11%) make up most of the balance.
The global fleet of passenger vehicles is approximately 1.4 billion cars and as manufacturers produce some 90 million vehicles per year, it will obviously take about 15 years to ‘replace’ the global fleet with non-emission vehicles. As ICE vehicles will effectively cease production from 2035, that dovetails with the internationally agreed requirement to reduce emissions by 2050.
Coupled with that, hydrogen fuel cell technology will be sufficiently advanced to power trucks, trains, heavy equipment, aircraft and boats/ships no later than 2030. Large ships burning tonnes of bunker fuel per voyage will be a distant memory by 2050 for example. But importantly, achieving the 2050 emissions target cannot be achieved without eliminating ICE petrol/diesel passenger vehicles.
Overarching all this, global organisations such as the UN, EU and IPCC plus every major political party and most politicians on the planet has been captured, rightly or wrongly, by the environmental movement. Everybody is singing from the same song sheet egged on by every NGO, chancer, influencer and charlatan – all of whom recognise the vast, almost incalculable, sums of money to be skimmed.
I acknowledge the gigantic infrastructure and cost* issues with charging all these EVs and hydrogen refuelling, but a transport transformation is underway and it cannot be stopped. By the end of this decade EV production will be frenetic and growing rapidly. Demand for lithium, graphite, ‘heavy’ magnets, rare earths, hydrogen production facilities (plus transportation) and rechargers, to name just a few, will be immense. Invest now. You don’t have to necessarily agree with the rationale for the global shift to net zero, but you might as well make some money out of it.
* The current consensus seems to be that the cost to achieve net zero will require expenditure between 1.5% – 2% of global GDP per year until 2050. Global GDP is currently around $US87 trillion per annum.
The GDP expenditure forecast is very likely optimistic.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell for the win.
Yeah first to post and solemnly promise I’ll be the last to own a POS EV
Sent to Moderation for 1st post! No fair >:(
Great post. Thanks!
In the interim, ICE vehicles will of course, be taxed and legislated out of existence – except for certain protected species.
The rubber will hit the road (so to speak) when the electrickery grid here collapses and people won’t be able to charge their useless EVs, let alone use them.
Which is why I will never buy one.
My hatred of and contempt for the evil stinking mongrels pushing this insanity continues to build by the day.
Bring on HOP Time™, it’s already long overdue.
Thanks for the extensive update Speedbox.
Re making money off this forced change, I guess just following Mr Pelosi’s investments is a good strategy. He’d know where all the electric boondoggles are.
Ah, bloody redundant words …
I can’t fathom why people actually still believe this bullsh1t that the plant food CO2 is bad and causing ‘climate change’ when all the historical empirical evidence suggests otherwise. Moreover, in the rush to have home battery storage and EV’s, what happens to the used batteries after their short working life? Etc etc etc. I despair at how stupid and irrational this world has become.
To my mind this is industrial virtue signalling. At the moment the automotive manufacturers are being accused of destroying the environment because of emissions from internal combustion engines. By moving to EVs (c0nveniently omitting any word of the environmental cost involved in making batteries and fuel cells etc) they conveniently shift the blowtorch onto the energy producers who will have to generate and reticulate the power and hydrogen (snort!!) for these virtuemobiles. It’s a clever move by the auto makers who will be able to charge a lot more for their products while looking like they are doing their bit for the environment.
It’s a similar but much larger scale situation to when incandescent lamps were banned by that idiot Turdball. The replacement CFLs and LEDs use a lot more resources to produce but that’s conveniently out of sight in China and 3rd world countries. The saving in energy consumption for lighting is trivial compared to what is used on the grid for other purposes. I used to top up my incandescent lamp stocks by buying them on visits to NZ and smuggling them back in my baggage despite warnings that they were prohibited imports (!) but now the cancer has spread over there of course and they are not available any more.
Cheap Chinese ICE cars for the win.
And mechanics. Lots of mechanics. Maybe we could do a deal with Cuba for some.
The glorious EV century ain’t going to happen because there won’t be electricity to charge the wretched things with. And it’ll be extremely expensive, as AEMO is currently finding. On the other hand Chinese and Indian car makers just might end up owning the entire car manufacturing industry after the clueless green Westerners go bankrupt.
Blistering electricity prices: It was the quarter the whole market broke and Australia spent $12.7b (Jonova, 30 Jul)
Speedbox
I’m not sure the carmakers are going to be that profitable though. I see the impact of EV commodifying cars even more. Their margins will be wafer thin.
HY/HT and other lurkers contemplating commenting. Dover runs an open house, but your first comment will be held up – moderated – until it is deemed not to be from an already known card-carrying lunatic who has lost his/her tablets.
To think that we have no say in it and so may as well make some money out of it is another way of implicating us into the whatever is wrong about it all. But there we go.
Have the car makers released any details about the kids working as cheap labour to mine the rare minerals in Africa. Or won’t they benefit from saving the planet?
Rabz is right. The grid will collapse before the electric roll out is even half completed. People will ask what the point of it all is when this happens. They should ask anyway. Electricity generation, unless it is nuclear, is simply transferring the emissions problem elsewhere, if problem it indeed is, which is still very contested. Renewables need regular replacing and are CO2 intensive to produce and difficult to dismantle and dispose, so there’s no win there either.
Converting within 20 years all trucks and road transport, cruise ships and ocean transport, and private vehicles, let alone aircraft, all over the world, is a fantasy. And you can count me out for hydrogen fuelled aircraft, which will be flying bombs, or anything else hydrogen fuelled for that matter.
Anybody who believes that we can keep the lights on AND/OR charge electric vehicles with wind,solar and storage is a fool.
Those fools I refer to are various. Politicians, bureaucrats, the elte and the indoctrinated.
The sooner we have another state wide blackout the sooner these fools will be exposed as the idiots they are.
wow, its almost like the grid has capacity to spare! (written whilst I await the sparky to install my generator switch over wiring).
Just on a few realities.
1. Hydrogen fuel cells aren’t likely to be feasible any time soon. Fifty years of intense R&D still hasn’t found an alternative to platinum group metals for the catalysts, and PGMs are too scarce to support a whole car industry. (The alkaline fuel cells don’t need PGMs but are poisoned rapidly by CO2 ingress, no one has yet found an answer to that either.)
2. Global warming is still not happening, as Paul Homewood summarizes today. Therefore there’s a significant chance the whole scam will die before all the net zero silliness starts really hurting. Like the Covid scams are dying – through the public getting fed up.
3. It seems likely to me the EV imperative will quietly morph into a Hybrid imperative, since they’re a lot cheaper and don’t need to be charged up. Hybrids are just an ICE in green drag, but I suspect that will be sufficient for the pollies when their nuts start being squeezed painfully by unhappy car owners.
Electric Vehicles Cost More than You Think
Conservative defenders of EVs must be realistic about the technology’s costs and the way those costs have been buried by EV boosters.
We at the Anderson Economic Group argue that conservatives should neither love nor hate E.V.s. Instead, they should insist on a powerful principle: those who purchase and drive E.V.s should do so with their own money. If you really want to form public opinion, one of the most powerful weapons is also one of the simplest: let people see how much something costs.
Michael Fumento recently remarked in this publication on conservatives’ almost reflexive aversion to E.V.s. He argues this is a mistake, and that E.V.s have advantages that should be acknowledged. We agree that unthinking antipathy to any technology makes no sense. But Mr. Fumento makes the same error he sees in others, by equating the Anderson Economic Group’s comparative cost analyses with the advocacy journalism that promotes E.V.s. As a co-author of those reports, I want to underline our guiding principle: we neither push people to buy E.V.s nor criticizing them for doing so. Instead, we tell people how much they cost.
Americans are quite familiar with these costs for gas- and diesel-powered vehicles. They are also accustomed to paying road taxes as part of the per-gallon price of gasoline or diesel fuel.
The same cannot be said for EVs. The true cost to fuel EVs is opaque to most consumers, because:
First, E.V. drivers must consider the cost of the energy consumed from both home and commercial charging. This requires decomposing energy consumption by charging source while accounting for complicated tariffs and fees.
Second, consumers must add the cost of the charger and its installation if they intend to charge at home.
Third, electric vehicle owners avoid paying the federal road taxes charged on fuel. However, half of all U.S. states now require a special E.V. tax in lieu of the state road taxes included in the cost of gasoline and diesel fuel.
Fourth, drivers must travel to and from E.V. charging stations, especially when traveling away from their home area. Because these are far less ubiquitous than gas stations, the additional miles required cost both time and money.
Fifth, many E.V. users consider their charging “free” because some commercial charging is subsidized by government agencies, utilities, and businesses. However, electricity and charging equipment are clearly not “free,” and consumers need to understand how they pay for this service.
I have nothing against EVs but I suspect that there will need to be a step change in technology to make them more likable. Batteries need to be smaller and easier to charge very quickly. They also need to be safer. A current driver can be in and out of a petrol station in 5 to 10 minutes. Easy. Set for another 4 or 500 km. EVs need to be able to replicate this experience to some extent. 2 hours is not going to do it.
Also the environmental damage caused by mining for the mineral components of EV will far exceed that for ICE. When this becomes obvious the next step will be to take away our ability to travel. Another form of freedom will be trashed.
Invest in gigantic underground tanks. Hoard petrol for the next decade or two. Your grandchildren will make a fortune keeping legacy ICE vehicles on the road after 2050.
Gee, that’s a lot of batteries in landfill.
Gee, that’s a lot of batteries in landfill.
You never know, the climate changy narrative may collapse and I suspect all those ice cars will get exported to Asia, Africa and South America and continue on their merry carbin pulutin ways.
At some stage, you would think, the oil industry will recognise the threat to their existence and actually fight this bullshit instead of playing along.
That’s exactly how I fell Rabz – my loathing and contempt for the scum imposing this has no bounds.
This is already a central plank of these evil idiots’ agenda. You know, like existing in a pod, eating the bugs, owning nothing and being happy (or else).
I doubt I’ll live long enough to enjoy the moment, but it’s going to be priceless when all these measures are completed – or perhaps I should say if, not when – and the climate just keeps on doing its thing, regardless.
Because authority has been hijacked by ideologues who rationalise their self-interest. Fortunately covid has shaken belief in authority, but only for some.
Hydrogen aircraft research. Nice little scam here.
https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/stories/2022-07-how-blue-condor-will-accelerate-airbus-first-hydrogen-powered-test-flights
Look up Sandy Munro and his Youtube channel where they dissect electric cars. Very complex battery packs.
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare says:
July 30, 2022 at 9:26 am
HY/HT and other lurkers contemplating commenting. Dover runs an open house, but your first comment will be held up – moderated – until it is deemed not to be from an already known card-carrying lunatic who has lost his/her tablets.
Fat finger moment, cleared all my cookies and fat fingered in HY instead of HT. Still robbed though ?
The battery packs don’t like like they are maintainable unless just completely replaced with new ones.
Via Wikipedia, Sandy Munro’s main design principles:
Munro advises and consults on the implementation and use of manufacturing methodologies including Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) and lean design. He introduced DFMA to Ingersoll Rand in 1989.[11] Munro’s main design principles are:[12]
1.Teamwork
2.Reducing the number of parts
3.Layered assembly from above, using gravity
4.Easy alignment and insertion
5.Avoid expensive fastening
6.Bulk storage to reduce handling problems
7.Poka-yoke – making operations foolproof to avoid errors
8.Self assembly so that parts naturally engage
9.Simplify packaging and servicing
10.Avoid adjustment and repositioning of the assembly
I read this as chuck those parts over there in sequence and shake and they will all fit together.
Rabz says:
July 30, 2022 at 9:14 am
In the interim, ICE vehicles will of course, be taxed and legislated out of existence….
Beyond any doubt. The ‘recalcitrants’ will be financially beaten into submission and then eventually legislated into oblivion. Only ICE cars driven by members of sporting car clubs will get annual registration – with restrictions. (BoN – they will be coming for you and your Mazda).
Jock says:
July 30, 2022 at 9:57 am
Batteries need to ….. charge very quickly. 2 hours (charging) is not going to do it.
Fast charging batteries are already a reality. 80% charged in about 15 minutes but at commercial facilities, not you home charger. ‘Petrol’ stations will change to having multiple fast chargers and serving coffee whilst you wait. Ampol have already announced plans to progressively convert their facilities whilst still selling traditional fuels.
Mater says:
July 30, 2022 at 10:23 am
Gee, that’s a lot of batteries in landfill.
That will be outlawed just like it is currently illegal to dump an existing lead-acid car battery. There are a handful of major companies already gearing up to specifically recycle EV batteries and recover some of the elements (particularly the rare earths). Technology not perfected yet but again, multi millions of dollars going into development. Recycling of EV batteries is a given – there is too much money at stake.
jupes says:
July 30, 2022 at 10:35 am
At some stage you would think the oil industry will recognise the threat to their existence and actually fight this bullshit instead of playing along.
I know for certain that Shell, Exxon, BP and Repsol are all active investors in alternative fuel delivery systems whether that fuel is electricity or hydrogen. Also, ICE cars won’t disappear from our roads for at least another 20+ years so there is still a lot of petrol/diesel required. But you can be sure that those fuel companies have seen the writing on the wall and are investing accordingly.
The Western car manufacturers are investing large to produce EVs because they have been forced to do so, not for any coherent economic reason. As noted above there will be a massive electrical infrastructure required all this electricity, if it actually comes from wind and solar, the mind boggles at the zillions of square miles of windmills and solar panels requires, and the investment to do that. Europe already has a massive power shortage, and, and , and,…..
Whatever, I can assure you there will be no electric vehicles sold in Africa, except for a few virtuous white Teals in Capetown. They don’t have enough power to keep the lights on, never mind charging batteries. That situation will not improve for a long time, despite their vast coal and other hydrocarbon resources. But in general the non western world will not invest their limited resources in green nonsense, no matter what the ” global organisations such as the UN, EU and IPCC plus every major political party and most politicians on the planet” say .
This carbon nonsense will turn The West into an irrelevant and poor economic backwater. The Not West markets will be given to the new industrial powers who will continue to produce ICE vehicles, and the carbon emissions will continue to rise unabated.
And you can count me out for hydrogen fuelled aircraft, which will be flying bombs, or anything else hydrogen fuelled for that matter.
Yep, the Hindenburg comes to mind.
Jannie
This carbon nonsense will turn The West into an irrelevant and poor economic backwater. The Not West markets will be given to the new industrial powers who will continue to produce ICE vehicles, and the carbon emissions will continue to rise unabated.
If you believe the IPCC and the rest of the usual suspects, our emissions of CO2 are not relevant. The only thing that matters is the modelled “carbin budget” to have a high probability of keeping temperature rise below 1.5 degrees.
That budget will be exceeded by China alone before 2050. Therefore, the only rational approach is to adapt to a warmer world. That will require reliable, continuous power. Ruinables plus storage will not cut the mustard.
Speedy – They can take my aircraft carrier from my cold dead hands.
speedbox, you’ve ignored several practical difficulties.
Battery life is severely shortened by fast charging.
You can leave your IC car full of fuel without a problem. Electric cars are best stored at 40% state of charge for battery life.
You can’t use the entire battery capacity or the life of the battery will be shortened. About 60% of nominal is about right or a bit less. (80% to 20%)
They catch fire unpredictably, there is no known preventative and no way of putting out the fire.
Nice as low pollution town cars for short distances but still note the above problems.
A better solution is synthetic fuels made from CO2 and water. Then you can use the entire built infrastructure for distribution and use.
When the shit hits the fan you will be glad you had a place with enough grass out the back to feed your horse so he can pull your wagon.
Seriously, what did Cuba do when the USA wouldn’t sell it all those new-fangled cars? Kept the old ones going (which is a lot easier than trying to keep modern cars full of computers going).
So, after the horse and wagon, make sure you have a car from at least as far back as the 70s.
NO!
In reality that makes me no better than the narcissistic, corrupt individuals who have brought us to this point.
Everyone involved scrabbling around for money, prestige, ego boost, whatever.
Anything but the truth.
It’s a cult and it’s out of control.
Indeed.
Vale the Scientific Method. Murdered by avarice, lies and corruption.
No solar panels on this house, or the next. I’ll not, knowingly, be part of this bullshit.
Speedbox…..you don’t seem to get how tummies are fed and people get clothed and sheltered.
None of this shit you mention and speak of as if it’s happening no matter what …..will happen.
The reality of these decisions is stone age death and misery.
Hydrogen power is just an updated version of the ‘run your car on water’ scam. 1 kg of hydrogen will move a car about 25kms. Rough research by me suggests that to make 1 kg of hydrogen takes the equal of 4 days of electricity running an entire household. And thats just the energy input cost at the factory. Add on all the other manufacturing, transport and delivery costs… and taxes… and that kg of hydrogen becomes impossibly expensive.
Bruce of Newcastle says:
July 30, 2022 at 1:12 pm
BoN – they will be coming for you and your Mazda
Speedy – They can take my aircraft carrier from my cold dead hands.
Haha. That’s a great photo. Ok, so ‘the authorities’ had better be prepared.
Hallward, both Fester and yourself have been laughably wrong about battery technology. Were you ever taught to just STFU?
Jannie says:
July 30, 2022 at 12:50 pm
You make a very good point and are correct. Some countries, notably parts of Africa, a portion of India, some parts of Asia and South America can’t keep the lights on much less think about charging an electric car (even if they could afford the thing in the first place).
‘Developing nations’ will get a pass and one or two manufacturers will continue to produce limited ICE vehicles – possibly the Chinese and maybe the Indians and/or Russians. Beyond any doubt this conversion to EV has been conceived, initiated, embraced and self-imposed by the West. We are doing it to ourselves.
Having said that, China has been ramping up their local legislation to force the change to EVs and it is Govt policy that 40% of all new cars sold in China will be electric by 2030. They started legislating back in 2009!
But the number of ICE vehicles in those countries mentioned will be tiny by comparison, perhaps a few million. By 2050, over a billion ICE cars and trucks will have been scrapped with huge changes elsewhere in other transport sectors.
Most inner suburbs of Sydney and other Oz cities were built last century and most of them don’t have garages. This applies even to slightly outer suburbs, which may have a single garage in a family with at least two cars. The streets around our suburb in lower north shore Sydney have increasing numbers of cars parked in the streets every year.
Husband scoffs at the idea of all these being EV – imagine the electricity cords out to the street, he says, even if they have installed the requisite power supply system.
Vicki – the oil companies are all betting you’re correct. They will convert the petrol stations to re-charging stations and you will re-charge your car at the local Ampol, BP etc. or maybe when you go to the shopping centre. Ditto or those living in multi-storey apartment buildings. Ditto those living in rental accommodation. Millions of Australians will have no access to home re-charge and some (many?) will not install home charging (even if they could) so will re-charge at a public facility.
This is Psy-op to control our movements.
It’s very easy to have a kill switch in these vehicles that can shut them down remotely. In fact I think they have passed a law that all new electric vehicles must have one.
What do you think is going to happen when we have another “pandemic”? Don’t think the likes of Trudeau, Andrews and others wouldn’t do it in a heartbeat.
All of you have phones that track everything and I mean everything. When you go to the toilet, where you go, who you hang out with etc.. couple this with an electric car and there will be no escape.
Cars still provide freedom. You can fill up and go interstate in a moments notice and no-one would know.
Once everyone gets an electric car connected to the internet we are stuffed. Our grandchildren will be slaves and be happy
While Albwonese swans about in his yellow paint and pandering gear at Garma, here’s an 8-year-old who will never have a voice of any kind. (making the obvious assumption) ‘Berserker Street’!
A woman has been charged with murder after an eight-year-old boy was found dead in a central Queensland home.
Officers went to the address at Waterloo St in Berserker about 2.20am Saturday, where they found the boy unresponsive.
The property on was declared a crime scene and the Rockhampton Child Protection and Investigation Unit began investigating the sudden death.
A 36-year-old woman, who is known to the boy, was taken into custody and later charged with murder. She is due to face Rockhampton Magistrates Court on Monday.
Capricornia police acting inspector Luke Peachey said the death was a tragic event and officers and family members would be offered counselling.
“It hits a little bit harder when there’s an eight-year-old boy who’s been found deceased,” he said.
The summary execution of the top 1000 politicians in every country will solve most of the worlds problems. If it doesn’t try 10,000 of the public service. You know it makes sense. Might see if Sam Kekovich is available to do the commentary. FTA viewing compulsory of course. Stadiums filled.
JC says:
July 30, 2022 at 9:25 am
I’m not sure the carmakers are going to be that profitable though. I see the impact of EV commodifying cars even more. Their margins will be wafer thin.
JC, I don’t understand the context. What do you mean by EV commodifying cars even more?
People, self driving, kill switches etc are independent of the means of propulsion of the car.
Hello Lizzie.
The scope of the “promises” being made to shift Australia, let alone the developed world within the set timeframes to a green fleet of electric, hydrogen or other so called green technology motor vehicles is simply fanciful.
I fear the consequences for my grandchildren of this continuing, cultist insanity and complete disconnect from reality that currently passes for public policy in this country.
FWIW, I very recently bought a new car. I have a good use case for an EV, but the reality was that use case only stood up whilst I also owned an ICE vehicle and was also willing to spend almost 3x times more for an equivalent EV which also likely had a service life of 1/3rd of the equivalent of the ICE vehicle I bought.
This obsession with the decarbonisation of the transport industry when combined with what they are doing to our power industry especially is, quite simply, fucking insane.
The car companies are simply piling into a guaranteed future income-stream.
Legislated into existence and subsidy backed, the space will swell just like windmills and solar panels.
From the manufacturers pov, there’s new research, new patents, new tools, premium prices for all of the above and as an added bonus, the product life-cycle will mean quicker turnover of consumables…ie batteries.
They aren’t fascists if they’re saving the planet…just ask them.
Anybody that owns an ink-jet printer should be able to grasp where this is going.
Liberty Quote
Speedboxsays:
July 30, 2022 at 4:53 pm
Vicki – the oil companies are all betting you’re correct. They will convert the petrol stations to re-charging stations and you will re-charge your car at the local Ampol, BP etc. or maybe when you go to the shopping centre. Ditto or those living in multi-storey apartment buildings. Ditto those living in rental accommodation. Millions of Australians will have no access to home re-charge and some (many?) will not install home charging (even if they could) so will re-charge at a public facility.
Speedbox
Do we have the Infrastructure? – I have 3 Phase to my house but my electrician said I was lucky as output from local area transformer would restrict number of 3 Phase installations in Area.
Have been not able to confirm following, but makes sense.
ELECTRIC POWER SUPPLY ISSUES FOR EVs (of the future).
It Really Aint Gonna Work!!
Leastwise Not Yet Any Way
Some Wise Words from An Electrical Contractor In Melbourne
I recently did some work for the body corporate at the Dock 5 Apartment Building in Docklands in Melbourne to see if we could install a small number of electric charging points for owners to charge their electric vehicles.
We had our first three applications and we discovered:
1. The building has no non- allocated parking spaces ie public ones. This is typical of most apartment buildings so we cannot provide shared outlets.
2. The power supply in the building was designed for the loads in the building with virtually no spare capacity. Only 5 or 6 chargers could be installed in total in a building with 188 apartments!!
3. How do you allocate them as they would add value to any apartment owning one. The fight started on day one with about 20 applications received 1st day and with many more following.
4. The car park sub-boards cannot carry the extra loads of even one charger and would have to be upgraded on any floors with a charger as would the supply mains to each sub board.
5. The main switch board would then have to be upgraded to add the heavier circuit breakers for the sub mains upgrade and furthermore:
6. When Docklands was designed a limit was put on the number of apartments in each precinct and the mains and transformers in the streets designed accordingly.
This means there is no capacity in the Docklands street grid for any significant quantity of car chargers in any building in the area.
7. It gets better. The whole CBD (Hoddle Grid, Docklands) and Southbank is fed by two sub stations. One in Port Melbourne and one in West Melbourne.
This was done to have two alternate feeds in case one failed or was down for maintenance. Because of the growth in the city /Docklands and Southbank now neither one is capable of supplying the full requirement of Melbourne zone at peak usage in mid- summer if the other is out of action. The Port Melbourne 66,000 volt feeder runs on 50 or 60 year old wooden power poles above ground along Dorcas Street South Melbourne. One pole is located 40 cm from the corner Kerb at the incredibly busy Ferrars St Dorcas St Intersection and is very vulnerable to being wiped out by a wayward vehicle.
The infrastructure expenditure required would dwarf the NBN cost & that’s not including the new power stations required!
Seems likely that fuel prices will promote heavy switching. Maintenance costs are extremely low relative to petrol vehicles and energy cost in current prices very cheap indeed. So the switch by industry is purely rational.
Speedbox, you are correct in that I have overstated the degree of the Non West that will reject EVs, and sure China and other rich countries in Asia that can afford them will go for them. No doubt Singapore will go 100%. I am “financially comfortable”, and personally I would like to have a approx $150,000 flash EV to drive around, they are great except for the problem of recharging them, but its still not worth it for my economic situation. Unless I am forced to do so. That still applies to most of Asia and South America, and 99% of Africa.
But in general “Climate Change” is a first world problem. Africans for example do not give a damn, do not believe it, they have other problems, such as getting food and a roof over their heads. As for the goal of “Carbon Neutral” they view it another Western imperialist attempt to oppress them. The same way they look at whitey’s attempts to get them to use contraception.
The ‘Developing nations’ you note that will “Get a Pass” will not be buying expensive European ICE vehicles produced with “renewables”. They will buy as many cheap second hand cars from The West that they can get shipped over. They may even make most of their own vehicles with low production standards and high emissions, like the trabant. Their population will double every twenty odd years, and their carbon footprint will also increase significantly. The world does not have a carbon problem, it is a population problem.
I would also like to challenge your statement that The current consensus seems to be that the cost to achieve net zero will require expenditure between 1.5% – 2% of global GDP per year until 2050.
Consensus Economics is like Consensus Science, its political codswallop. The statement itself is misleading. A global figure of 2%, will be worn only by the Western Counties that are going “Carbon Neutral”. So you can double or treble the cost to be worn by The West. But even a figure of 5% of GDP is well understating the cost. The cost of getting Baseload power using “Renewables” is astronomic. And it does not factor in the huge external costs of battery storage and accidents, and decommissioning plant. Nor it does not factor in the external costs of the environmental damage and degradation. Loss of habitat? Germany will be covered by solar panels and windmills, and the last vestiges of the Black Forest will be gone. And there will be nothing left for Big Pharma to plunder.
Maybe the most insidious aspect of Thunbergist “Carbon Neutral” is that it has displaced true environmentalism and loving nature with a political goal. The same way that voting for the Socialists displaced true charity in caring for the sick and needy.
Talk to me about maintenance costs only when you are prepared to factor in a battery replacement pack inside 5 years (if your lucky). There is reason there are bugger all EV’s in the second hand market, replacing the battery is so expensive most people just write the vehicle off. I get ten – fifteen years out my ICE vehicles, good luck getting close to that with an EV…which brings up the “Green” BS, if I need two or (more likely three) EV’s in the time period I typically have one ICE vehicle for, how the hell does anyone get away with claiming an EV is environmentally friendly? ICB.
Just when you think we have hit peak stupid the bar gets lifted . The world at present has problems coming that dwarf anything that “climate change” can create . The four horsemen of the apocalypse are saddled and ready to ride and the people with the least resources are going to face them first . EV’s are going to become white elephants . If you take out the batteries and electronics they may be hauled by a good horse…..
HT: I gather that the typical battery life of a new ev is 8 years. Typical maintenance costs of a new ice vehicle is about 900/annum. We will shortly have about 300 new ev models, many of which will be in the 30-40k price range. The latest battery is a 1000km range.
The numbers aren’t hard to figure, depending on fuel consumption. Clearly better fir outer suburban commuters.
8 years sounds optimistic, but even if true, battery performance degrades with time. By the time you get to 8 years you won’t be looking at a range even remotely close to numbers they’re spruiking.
Then there the logistics of making all these models to replace the 5,000,000 passenger cars in Australia alone (won’t even goto to light trucks etc) in ten years? I’m no economist and my knowledge of logistics are of military origin, but ain’t no way it’s possible to replace the developed worlds sheer volume of ICE vehicles; I won’t use the word impossible but its highly improbable – the entire worlds vehicle manufacturing resources committed to this task as of tomorrow morning and without ever making another ICE is magical thinking. It won’t, can’t happen.
Then their is choice. I own two vehicles, one of which could be replaced by an EV if I wanted to (but with significant financial downsides), but the other is 4WD which I use to travel around Australia with a caravan, or simply to disappear into deep into the bush to photograph birds. This type of vehicle is not available, not at any price, as an EV (or any other kind if BS green flavour. I’m not alone, see how many people are willing to sacrifice (in my case) their retirement lifestyle for some inconsequential improvement to environment when so many other environmentally sound options don’t even get a look in because they aren’t fashionable or get a “like” on social media.
Something like 5 or 6 most popular vehicles sold in Australia are vehicles SUV like vehicles. Even base, bogan rednecks will understand the government is forcing them into the Australian equivalent of a 4 seated Gogomobile, and maybe there will be 300 models available (in Australia, srsly?), but that choice will be between 2 seat or 4 seat vanilla variations of the same thing. It will be like diversity at the ABC, you can watch and listen to people various colours, ethnic differences, dykes, queers etc but no real difference in opinions offered. My daughter has three young children, a family of 5, not a single EV choice is available to her even she could afford a likely $100,000 price tag (FFS, where are young families getting this money from?).
Now, that’s JUST the cars, don’t get me started on infrastructure to run this stuff. They don’t even have a common recharging standard. Australia’s power grid is in desperate need of overhaul and they want to do it with a technology that not exist at scale anywhere in the world. Name just 1 country that intends to run its power grid like Australia (no nuclear, no hydro at scale even if we wanted to, dry continent and all that). Hydrogen is seriously dangerous shit to handle and again, nowhere. Nowhere. In the world is hydrogen produced at at meaningful scale unless produced by steam reformation; go look that process up stand witness to true environmental horror! Then the rare Earth metals used for this green technology and the clincher, without fossil fuel there is no steel, and no exotic materials to make 1.45 Billion cars (Google estimate of passenger vehicles). Add another 100 or two and talking serious numbers ?
Mate, it ain’t going to happen, I wish it could and would but no amount of magical thinking will bring this transition about in the stated timeframe. We are setting ourselves up for failure on an epic scale.
My last observation. The transition from steam to electricity took generations. Lots of hard lessons learned there. Why is modern Australia so arrogant as to ignore the salient lessons of history?
Sorry for typos, typing this in my ICE vehicle where I am able to keep the motor and heater running nicely waiting for Mrs HT to pick up the groceries (shelves are all but empty of Toot paper again, those Aussie logistics are holding up just fine /sarc off. Just wait until the logistics needs are more complex than making and distributing enough date rolls)
Just got home, my PoS HP12 financial calculator can’t even tell me the %Total that our 5M Australian cars makes up of the worlds 1.4B passenger cars. My God we’re screwing our self’s senseless on a change that even won’t register on the worlds environment. We have become unhinged…
0.34% of worlds passenger cars. Nearly all in good tune and fine fettle (as compared to other countries) and we’re doing it to ourselves ?
When this scam goes tits up, it will take Christendom with it in one of the most horrendous economic cataclysms ever.
Is that the goal?
Flyingduk:
Can you give us an idea of what it’s costing for this?
Eyrie:
1 EV in charging/fuel station.
30,000 liters of petrol/diesel/LPG.
What could go wrong?
Alain:
I wouldn’t put it past them to do this, but link please?
Grey Ranga:
From Taxicab Depressions – the Pig Trap:
“These people are playing with matches… I don’t think they understand the scope and scale of the wildfire they are flirting with. They are fucking around with a civil war that could last a decade and cause millions of deaths… and the sad truth is that 95% of the problems we have in this country could be solved tomorrow, by noon… simply by dragging 100 people out in the street and shooting them in the fucking head.”
Read the whole thing – quite an eye opener.
The car companies are just trying to protect themselves in a regulatory environment that is highly restrictive and capricious. Stellantis have worked that out and are offering some warnings but still going down the path anyway.
One other thing that appears to be happening is manufacturers getting ready to re manufacture old models. Cuba here we come.
HT says:
Now, that’s JUST the cars, don’t get me started on infrastructure to run this stuff.
Couldn’t agree more. The cost will be gigantic. Governments will spend no less than $US60 trillion over the next 28 years to achieve the emissions target by 2050.
For clarity, I am not involved in EVs (or any industry associated with them, or renewable energy). I am merely pointing to the vast transformation underway. Right or wrong, its happening.
As for infrastructure and constraints, look at this:
“West London faces new homes ban as electricity grid hits capacity”
https://www.ft.com/content/519f701f-6a05-4cf4-bc46-22cf10c7c2c0
where do hydrids fit in? The missus put a deposit on a Honda suv hybrid. The ice version was 10k cheaper without the auto boot opener etc. No spare in hybrid.. puncture kit instead. 8 months till delivery.
pete of perth says:
August 1, 2022 at 1:04 pm
Unfortunately, the current ‘game plan’ is that hybrids will be treated the same as traditional ICE vehicles. That is, in Europe at least, the registration of new hybrids will be banned from 2035. Eventually, that will likely be replicated globally although perhaps from 2040 (especially the USA).
The manufacturers will of course be guided, in part, by demand. If it becomes uneconomic to produce hybrids alongside pure EVs, then hybrids will cease production.
Macbeth, hiya, and as you can see, I am still going strong, indeed thriving in these later years.
Off topic here, a bit, but I am having some good successes so far in saving a little heritage church in the UK at least from demolition, and now from closure, so I am hopeful that some church services will continue to be intermitantly held here, the purpose for which this building was created by the work of over a thousand years of toilers for their faith, including my ancestors. By little things do we show our desire to stop the blind march of so-called progress.
To bring it back to topic, in the world electric cars are promising for us, we need to hold the line on ruin for as long as we can, those of us who knew very different times in our youth.
xx to you, old man, from me, your internet friend as you head to your cententary, Lizzie B.
Seems likely that fuel prices will promote heavy switching. Maintenance costs are extremely low relative to petrol vehicles and energy cost in current prices very cheap indeed. So the switch by industry is purely rational.
Yeah, everybody says that but what are the realities? The things are heavier than equivalent IC cars so tyres, suspension etc will take more of a hammering. How much maintenance does a modern IC car need? Oil change and filter once a year, sparkplugs at 100,000 km, tyres. Insignificant in cost of ownership. Electric car batteries aren’t the simple sealed lead acid SLA in your IC car. Complex battery pack, thermal control system, a token attempt at controlling thermal runaway and a complex electronic system for cell monitoring. Have a look at Munro Live on Youtube.
Energy prices aren’t particularly cheap for re-charging and will go up greatly.
Mercedes got 1000km range by putting a large car battery in a small SUV type vehicle. That’s while the battery is new of course and you wouldn’t want to push that much range regularly or you will shorten the life of the battery.
Electric is probably OK for little shopping boxes around town, but don’t park the potential incendiary bomb in your garage.
These things are in no way ready for prime time. There isn’t even an industry charging standard. Pointless bullshit virtue signalling.
Governments will spend no less than $US60 trillion over the next 28 years to achieve the emissions target by 2050.
Governments won’t spend a red cent. Taxpayers will pay for all this and nobody seems to be worrying about the opportunity cost of this horseshit. What else could we do with the money that would get a far better return?
“These things are in no way ready for prime time. There isn’t even an industry charging standard. Pointless bullshit virtue signalling.”
Exactly.
Want “sustainable” fuel? Try propane (LPG) – there are bacteria that can create propane instead of methane during anaerobic decomposition of organic material – your garden “green” waste and vegetable peeling etc can by turned into fuel for your car, either at your house, or at industrial scale.
Handling and storage is well understood and mature tech, infrastructure is already at least partially in place – many service stations, but hardly all, sell “AutoGas”, the exact same stuff as what runs your BBQ. “LPG” is at least 60% propane and the rest is butane (“cigarette lighter gas”), which is a waste product from oil refineries (butane makes up a large fraction of what they “flare off” – they can’t store it all, and no-one want to buy it either. So they mix it with propane and sell it for BBQ’s and cars – and it is the butane that leaves the waxy residue and gums up the works of your BBQ.
If using a modern LPG system for cars (liquid port injected), there is no loss of power or torque – indeed, should you modify the engine to take advantage of the fact that LPG is 104 octane minimum, while “standard” ULP is 91 octane, you can obtain more power from increased compression ratio (better overall thermodynamic efficiency).
LPG burns more completely than petrol because it is a gas (hence well mixed) instead of an atomised liquid when burnt, so emissions are generally lower than petrol.
Although, being a higher “fraction” than petrol, LPG produces less energy/L then petrol, this is somewhat offset by the slight “leaner” mixture required.
Your engine oil will last longer too – since LPG has less carbon than petrol and burns better, your oil will not look “black”, even after 10,000km, meaning it has less contaminants in it.
In short: indefinitely sustainable fuel from what would otherwise require extensive landfill to dispose of; well understood handling and storage; only needs similar volume of storage as petrol for same range; similar refueling times as petrol/diesel; large amount of infrastructure already in place; existing vehicles easily modified to use it either in addition to, or as a replacement for, petrol; before we have the full sustainability in place, using LPG obtained from oil refineries means you are obtaining work from what would otherwise just be burnt to no purpose as a waste product (the butane part).
I don’t see any downsides…
What is going to accelerate the hell out of this is Labor have introduced a bill into Parliament to remove FBT on EV’s. So just about anyone will be able to salary sacrifice a lease on an EV and because there is no FBT it will be overwhelmingly tax effective to do this. The slow train wreck towards crashing the grid is about to get a head of steam up!!