As Cats are aware, I’ve been in Russia for the past month and have reported separately on various aspects such as daily life and cost of living etc.   In my first post I mentioned that I was gathering input from assorted friends, family and others on their attitude to the Ukraine conflict and present a summary of those comments for your information.

Before reading on, I ask that you recognise that Russians are deeply patriotic.  There are no limits in the protection of the Motherland.   Russians will often have a small flag in their car or a badge pinned to their clothing.  Lunchtime concerts by local schoolchildren will feature patriotic songs and waving of the national flag.  This is not a façade – the people love their country and are proud of their nationality. 

About a week ago, national TV broadcast video footage of a destroyed German Panther tank in the Kursk region.  Whilst the footage was being shown, the newsreader intoned “A German tank on Russian soil in the Kursk region….again”.   That was it!   BOOM.  You could almost feel the national blood pressure rise 20 points.  

The patriotism and unswerving determination to protect the Motherland should not be underestimated, nor its capacity to motivate the populace, and my report should be viewed through that lens.

• President Putin is not universally admired by all Russians – some were vocal in their perception of him – but on the issue of the SMO, he has exceptionally wide support. 

• Overwhelmingly, Russians made a point of saying they do not hate Ukrainians.  They regard Ukrainians as their brothers and sisters – albeit perhaps as the black sheep of the family.  This viewpoint was emphasized by my interviewees with a few adding that Ukrainians have ‘lost their way’.  

I asked that in view of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s repeated requests to the USA and others for permission to use their missiles to strike deep into Russia, and potentially Moscow, how would this affect their view of Ukrainians?   The answer was the same: it would not be the fault of the average Ukrainian, but their leadership (and the Americans).  Despite the well of relative goodwill towards the average Ukrainian, most followed up with a dark comment that “we will respond”.     

• Russians genuinely mourn the loss of life on both sides.   Having said that, Russians will not be diverted.  They regard the SMO as exactly that – a Special Military Operation.  It is not a war of annihilation (unlike WWII) but a more precision mission to secure Russia’s border from the existential threat to Russia from NATO (read USA).

• Russian losses of materiel are not currently considered strategically significant.  While Russians are not happy about it, it is seen as a price that must be paid.  When I mentioned the bombing of the Kursk Bridge, oil refinery/storage bombing and sinking of (at least) two Russian warships, the response, regarding the ships, was “we have plenty and will build another”.  The loss of materiel is noted but doesn’t seem to sit very highly in the consciousness at this time.   

This may very likely change if long range missile strikes into Russia are approved by the Western powers. 

The destruction of Nordstream 2 is a sore point.  Russians are convinced that the USA was the instigator and facilitator.  While the British and/or Poles and/or Ukrainians may have been the ones who laid the charges and detonated them, it was an American operation.  This will not be forgotten.

• Russians will not accept NATO on their doorstep and if Ukraine did join the alliance, they see Georgia as potentially the next domino.  That, also, will prompt a similar Russian response.  Russians perceive themselves as having been ‘under siege’ from the West for as long as any of them can remember.

A few reminded the events of October 1962 when the “Americans nearly started WWIII over our missiles in Cuba”.  Why, they ask, should we accept American missiles on our border?  

• It is fair to say that Russians are remarkably well informed on the sequence of events leading up to the conflict in Ukraine.  Most can point to the events of 2014 as pivotal with some able to outline the Russian perspective back further.  A small handful recalled 1997 when Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic were invited to join NATO with NATO further declaring that Ukraine’s membership was on the future agenda.  

Subsequent events, especially in mid-2021 when both the USA and NATO re-asserted that Ukraine will be invited to join NATO, is seen as the final nail in the coffin.  Russian military action was essentially guaranteed.

• President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is perceived by everyone, and I mean everyone, as a “fool”* and “clown”* who has been enchanted by the promises of the West.  (*This derives from his previous career as a television comedian.)  He is also seen as illegitimate given his term as President expired in May of this year and general elections have been cancelled.  

Should it occur, nobody seems to think that Zelenskyy will take any part in a negotiated peace agreement – he will depart for Poland or France or somewhere else and snipe from the sidelines. 

• The national TV channels have been showing, on high rotation, the harassment of a 74-year-old Russian man in Ukraine.  The Ukrainian soldiers filmed the incident and released it to social media.  In it, one of the soldiers is wearing a WWII German soldier’s helmet complete with SS insignia.  Speaking in Russian and some German, they harassed the old man referring to him as a “Russian pig”.  

This was deeply offensive to Russians for whom the German invasion of Russia is etched profoundly into the national psyche.  The Ukrainian authorities and some in the West claim this incident and posting it to social media is merely ‘trolling Russians’, but the incident, and others like it, reinforces the Russian government narrative that Ukraine is steeped with Nazis. 

• The Kursk incursion by Ukraine is particularly interesting and there are two distinct perspectives.  The first is that some are incensed that ‘anybody’ would dare invade Russian territory.  Notwithstanding the affection Russians feel for Ukrainians, some think an immediate and utterly withering response by the Russian military should have been made.  That Ukrainian soldiers would dare to cross into Russia required a serious smack down of the ‘junior sibling’ and also send a message to anybody else that might be thinking about it.

The lack of a devastating response has caused Putin’s popularity rating to dip.  However, any Western media reports that Putin’s presidency is currently ‘shaky’ is pure BS (or wishful thinking).  But there is no doubt that there are some who are restless with the continued presence of the Ukrainian military on Russian soil.  This is also playing out on the national TV chat shows where some panel members are vocal in their belief that the Ukrainians should be immediately ‘liquidated’.  

There is also extensive criticism in Russian media of the MoD Intelligence that allowed the Ukrainians to arrive unexpectedly and, if Russian MoD claims of Ukrainian losses are to be believed (over 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers KIA to date plus hundreds of support vehicles and 40 tanks), then those losses would amount to about one third of the original invading force.  If those loss figures are true, then why is the diminishing Ukrainian force proving so intractable to completely exterminate in view of Russia’s clear military advantage?  As mentioned previously, the SMO has very deep support but the acceptance of foreign troops on Russian land is far shallower.   For some it is completely unacceptable.

The second viewpoint is more pragmatic with some saying that Ukraine is sacrificing more men/materiel and, in fact, this Ukrainian action may hasten the end of the conflict.  With an active military of well over one million men and a reserve of over two million, Russia can swot away the invaders at any time it chooses.  In the meantime, Ukraine is trying to support two front lines and is burning through the Western supplied materiel (and Nazi sympathetic soldiers) at unprecedented, and unsustainable, rates. 

A couple of people thought the Kursk incursion was actually a good thing – meaning that it was a pivotal Ukrainian military mistake.  They say that by slowly bleeding the Ukrainian force as it is being resupplied with men/materiel, rather than outright fast extermination, the Ukrainians created a bear trap and then fell into it themselves. 

When I put the second viewpoint to those who hold the first, there is grudging acknowledgement but even so, Russian land is seen as inviolable.  It is fair to say that recent Russian advances across the fronts in Ukraine are ‘blunting’ the criticism (to an extent) of the Kursk incursion.  If Russian troops were bogged down in Ukraine AND failing to push back the Ukrainian troops in Kursk, President Putin would have a more serious problem on his hands.  Note also that there are a significant number of powerful hawks in the Kremlin so continued Russian military progress is crucial.  There are plenty of ex-military, ex-politicians and assorted others on the national TV chat shows who would escalate the SMO ‘tomorrow’ if they had the opportunity.  If the Russian forces continue to advance in Ukraine whilst taking back territory in Kursk, the criticism will subside.

(note: Long range missile strikes into Russia may galvanize the population and give increased voice to the hawks.  Recall my comments about protection of the Motherland.)  

• The recent Ukrainian Parliament laws that effectively ban the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), and favour the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, are considered a vile affront.  The new laws give the UOC nine months to cut ties with Russia or risk being shut down by court order.  Religious beliefs are widely held by Russians who were also disturbed by reports that the assets of the UOC may be subject to seizure by Ukraine. 

With millions of Ukrainians openly claiming membership to the UOC this legal action reinforces the Russian perception that the Ukrainian authorities are ‘Godless’ and these new laws are nothing more than religious persecution.

(note: The battle for the spiritual soul of Ukrainians is complex and was underway before the SMO commenced.)

•    All of the interviewees said that returning Crimea to any form of Ukrainian control was              off the agenda.  However peace was achieved, whether negotiated or otherwise, my                interviewees would not contemplate Crimea being used as a trading chip. 

• Separately. I saw one poster (80cm x 120cm) on the side of a building in Moscow inviting men to join the army.  The offer shown was 5.4m rubles (AU$86k) on sign up and payments totaling another 2m rubles (AU$31k) over the following 12 months.  These are significant amounts to the average Russian and would be enough to buy a basic apartment in many cities.  The poster didn’t look new but nor was it particularly old.  (six months?).     

So there you have it.  The summation represents the opinions of the Russians I spoke with.  Given this is a nation of almost 150 million people, my sample is tiny but nevertheless, my interviewees represent wide educational, professional and demographics.  Furthermore, they are geographically dispersed in Syktyvkar, Kislovodsk and Moscow.  

The takeaway is this: the conflict in Ukraine is seen as a just cause notwithstanding Russian warmth for Ukrainians.  The United States is perceived to be the primary instigator over a long period of time.  Russian resolve to the SMO is unwavering and President Putin continues to enjoy very wide support.  (caveat: continued Ukrainian presence in Russia is causing some discontent but not significant at this time.)  That Russia will be successful in its SMO objectives is beyond any doubt.

The views expressed above and the takeaway have been widely speculated on the Cat.  I recall that others and I have reported on some aspects in previous posts, but this most recent trip has allowed the widespread gathering of opinions and, is up to date.