Multitasking, I was writing something, not this, on Tuesday night, drinking red wine, and intermittently watching TV. Out went the power in my local area. It is a shock for us city slickers. My desktop computer (incidentally the hard drive of which I later found had been ruined by the incident) sits in my enclosed balcony, the floor of which is raised above the main floor. This forms a handy resting place for my wine while watching TV on my couch.
I inched forward in the darkness and felt my foot hit the glass of wine. It turned out that I had wedged the glass still upright against the side of the couch. Wine intact and no mess to clean up. And they say miracles don’t happen.
I gradually felt my way to my bedroom where I keep a torch. Then, where are the candles? Eventually found them in a kitchen cupboard and ‘cleverly’ fitted three of them inside assorted glass bottles. Memo to me: must buy candlestick holders and perhaps some lanterns of some description, for they will surely be needed.
I had my phone which of course still worked, but that provides me with little entertainment, not being a social media junkie. I thought I would continue working by candlelight on the blog I was writing. Alas, laptop computer says no. My Microsoft Word program is now in the sky and only works when connected to the internet, which of course is as dependent on power, as with all modern conveniences. Without power we are as neophyte cave dwellers. Most of us would die out in a short space of time.
An Ausgrid text informed me that the problem was complex and would take some hours to fix. It was now about 11 pm. I simply went to bed.
We have all experienced blackouts and know how disconcerting they are. I mention my recent experience simply drive home the point that we will need to get used to them and prepare for them.
Windmills and solar panels work only intermittently, power is required continuously. Never the twain shall meet. Chis Bowen will deliver soaring prices and blackouts; not to mention deindustrialisation. Nothing is more certain. Dutton and his merry band of Liberal wets offer some reprieve, if they were to miraculously get over the line, but not nearly enough. They seem determined to be stuck at net zero.
Windmills and solar panels are being installed as we speak. The more they permeate the system the less reliable it becomes. Coal and gas can fill the breach when renewables are relatively minor in the scheme of things, but as they metastasise and drive out coal and gas, particularly coal, their intermittency is fatal. Imagine the effect of a wind drought when wind generation makes up on average only 10 percent of the system. Now imagine what happens when it makes up 50 percent.
Australia’s rich estate is being run down. Unreliable and expensive power is driving out industry, while ever more borrowed money goes to climate-scam boondoggles and to social welfare programs, and so little to national defence. Don’t want to be a doomster, but I don’t think that this will necessarily end well. Will it?
No, it won’t end well Peter, no matter which cheek of the Uniparty @rse ‘wins’ in May. They simply do not want to hear the truth, for whatever reason.
From a fellow Doomster.
Peter, somehow I am going to get my husband to read your warning.
At the farm we have a 10kw solar system, but no battery. I don’t want to be reliant on the grid since I anticipate future blackouts relatively soon. Husband refuses to get battery, citing our backup of a petrol generator. I argue that, probably consistent with our blackouts, China will at some time blockade our petrol supplies.
In our city abode (where admittedly, we spend a lot less time) I have lots of candles in a handy place!
So – in respect to your query whether we should expect doom? Yes, we damn well should! Our miserable pollies (of both sides of politics) have allowed us to deteriorate into a pathetic country which exports most of its sources of energy, and is on a path to actually ban the use of what we have!
As if that is not enough, we have de-industrialised over the past few decades. It is just ASTONISHING that almost no one (except on blogs like this one) seems to have noticed.
As if that is not enough, we have de-industrialised over the past few decades.
Thank the Lima Agreement, which Australia signed in the mid-1970s and all the idiot governments that adhered to it in the following decades.
Like it or not (pretending otherwise doesn’t change the reality), truth now resides in the individual or entity, rather than the information they are communicating; the messenger rather than the message.
If the messenger is from the approved ‘tribe’ and has status within it, whatever she/he/it says automatically assumes a validity, regardless of the content of the message.
A prime example (in reverse) is Elon Musk. Once a figure of worship, he was perceived as stepping outside of the tribe and embracing values which threatened the livelihood of status members of the tribe. He is branded an outlaw.
Conservatives and climate realists have long been branded outlaws; threats to the narrative and therefore dangerous to associate with in any manner. If you’re a policy maker and wish to keep your finger in ‘the pie’ you don’t want to risk the opprobrium that might arise if you express a willingness to talk to ‘the enemy.’
To cut a much longer explanation short: What is needed is an understanding of human psychology (how are people influenced?). It’s not that facts no longer matter – they do – but that before those facts are delivered, we need to make sure that the receiver of the message is willing to acknowledge it. If not, our efforts researching and constructing the message come to nought.
We don’t live in the 1950s anymore.
BTW in our valley a friend owns an old coal mine that functioned during WWII, but which was closed decades ago because of non profitability. We laugh that, when it is necessary, we can always raid it for some coal!
I grew up on a farm with a coal seam in the creek, not sure I could find it now. The old farm house was moved from a coal mine that closed down in 1918.
“We don’t live in the 1950s anymore.”
Like Vicki, I have candles and some small LED lights all over the house. Also we keep our bicycles in good nick. And have cash on hand, a generator, a decent pantry of dry goods. We could manage about 10 days before needing outside contact. By then I reckon a whole lot of other people will be in much worse state than we are.
I’m just sorry we haven’t had decent blackouts yet.
We may be more fortunate than others. We have stock to subsist on – though I would prefer to eat our neighbours’ commercial stock and not our special breed stud cattle! Ammo stocks will be the problem. From time to time we hear that stock from the US is slowing.
Our chooks & vegetables garden will be an important asset. And yes, I maintain a good pantry supply of dry and tinned goods.
“Ammo stocks will be the problem.”
I have a decent supply of ammo, BUT … once my licence is revoked, it will be illegal for me to have it, so that will have to be handed in to the police as well.
I’m an optimist and for some reason a good reader of “the wind”. On the bright side:
The likelihood of the whole climate change scam exploding/imploding within the next three years or less is getting very high.
Net zero was an agreement between govt parties on a target and many of the major parties to the agreement have subsequently got out of it or just ignore their commitments. It is now a meaningless tribute to the weather Gods and a source of grift for climate bureaucrats.
A large portion of the funding that was directed towards propagandizing the scam worldwide have been neutralized by Trump.
Renewable energy investment is starting to get the wobbles. Start-up money is disappearing and the big returns far less than promised.
The likelihood of major electricity failures in Australia is increasing as more and more wind and solar are installed without baseload back-up. The Government will not be able to finance both the rollout of the renewable transmission grid and the upgrade or introduction of new baseload.
The feasibility, logistics and financial cost of covering the country and seacoast in poles, wires, turbines, panels and more, was never properly planned. It won’t be finished because it can’t be done. It’s just a matter of who is game enough to pull the plug. A couple of big black-outs will tip the scales.
Post script
On second thoughts I don’t think either of the major parties has the courage to directly stop the scam. So it won’t be tackled head on. The decision will be made on the basis of economic alternatives which will go down well with the public and businesses suffering under the blight of of unsustainable price increases. And of course, at the end, no one will be responsible for the huge misdirection of taxpayer funds or the damage to our country.
Combine this with the discussion on how bad the education system is, and doom is inevitable. It’s not just energy we’re screwing up, though that’s critical. It’s everything.
BTW, Peter. Many thanks for continuing to contribute to this blog and, of course, to Quadrant.
Keeps me off the streets Mak.
In a similar, related vein, we received a letter the other day from the WA water provider.
Summarising, it said, “In our last letter, we alerted you to the fact you use too much water. Despite that, since then you have used 47 litres more per day. You are well above the average for households in your area. We would be pleased to teach you how to cut down.”
My immediate response was “Feck off! I pay for every fecking litre of the stuff! And secondly, I have a 1001 sq m block reticulated from the bloody mains … should I just let everything die??”
This is not going to end well. One more letter like that and I’m on the phone!
Yep. Another reason why roof/tank water is so important. Cant recall whether it is permitted in urban areas. In the city we have supplied water, of course, but in the country we are fortunate to have several large tanks taking rainwater off our house roof and all the sheds.
As for electricity, I desperately want a gen set, but the Leader of the Opposition is adamant that’s a “NO! You’ve been watching too many of those stupid survivalist movies”.
Friends who live about an hour north of Perth have one on their caravan. Twice in the last 3 months it has kept their fridge, freezer, lights and TV on in the house when they had blackouts. They estimate it saved them a good grand in spoilt food.
Buy the thing. Put it in the garage under some sacks and produce it in triumph when the inevitable happens.
And don’t, under any circumstances, say I told you so.
Tell the little woman you
a/ won it in a raffle
b/ found it in a pile on chuck-out night (some pretense at ‘fixing’ it required)
c/ inherited it from a dead mate, whose wife thought his memory would live on with throb-throb-throb
d/ got it on loan from the men’s shed
Do generators throb? ‘Humming’ does capture it
And, God forbid, should the ordure really hit the rotating cooling device in WA, I will no longer be able to protect my family or my property, because my government is taking away my means of self-defence and crushing them.
I am not worried about net zero policies, or even the Paris Accord.
We can simply stay in those empty agreements and then ignore them like every other signatory (except UK, NZ and Canada it seems). And we can cite our signatures as being great and good But no reason we should be an idiot too.
Both political parties have their wets and dries on climate. So I am optimistic that as things worsen in the energy stakes the dries in either party in power will start to gain serious traction as the political pressure mounts to change tack.
It may though take some serious blackouts and everyone is well advised to keep an emergency pantry of some sort, a camping gas bbq and stove, matches, candles, medications and some handy cash. Plus LED lanterns and power banks and/or a few solar charging devices for phone charging. Most freezers and fridges have food that will last for about three days before spoiling.
Blackouts of more than three days that are widespread and without emergency services will immediately cause social harm and likely deaths (people caught in lifts and garages and having medical emergencies etc).
These things will be political dynamite.
Forgot to mention the most important thing. Water. We keep those 12 paks of bottled water in the boot of the car, always. Use them at home too and replenish a fresh supply regularly. It’s handy for longer drives and at times when our water has been cut off for a few hours and we’ve forgotten to fill jugs, that water has saved the day.
We have our own water in tanks, but it needs to be pumped. I have rigged a small backup system with one 200w panel feeding 2 deep discharge batteries and a hefty inverter in the shed. As we are on a farm power network, it tends to go out often, but we just plug the pump into the shed system, light the antique kero lamp and many LED lanterns and cook with the gas BBQ and a Chinese cartridge stove to boil water. I can even run the TV, but it means I have to watch free-to-air (shudder). If it goes longer than 12 hours, I get out the generator and spend 30 mins trying to get it to start! Last outage was from 5:30 pm till 2:30 the next day.
Just incidentally, we had a recent blackout at the farm and, my God it was black! We staggered around in the house looking for a torch to go out and plug in the generator. Not often that black.
A Qld mate was hit by Alfred and was without power, water, internet, and access in/out for 2 weeks by road or air (long walks through paddocks was the only option).
He was prepared as you listed.
Gas cooktop and gas BBQ. Plenty of large water bottles. Well stocked pantry. Candles and torches. Swimming pool water to flush toilets. Rainwater tank. Battery powered radio tuned to local ABC.
Lack of communication to authorities and family was the big issue. The long term concern is what to do if there is a serious injury or death next time.
One thing that has struck me in these discussions is the assumption there will be the money and ability to fix the problem.
Given the proliferate spending of governments over covid, and more recently, along with sheer incompetence (Victoria!), is the Aussie dollar and the economy of the country going to be in the position to support investment in nuclear, or even building new coal or gas?
We can have high wages, or year zero power, we can’t have both.
Has there been a more studiously ignorant ideologue in Australian politics than Bowen.
And why, given his glorious run as minister for people smugglers during the red witch years, did they hand him such a vital portfolio?
And why, given his glorious run as minister for people smugglers during the red witch years, did they hand him such a vital portfolio?
In my view he was deliberately given the portfolio because they needed a car salesman type that could sell a dud, obfuscate and otherwise present a moving target that proved hard to pin down.
But mem…he is such a bloody dunce, intellectually! I cant see why anyone could take him seriously, even if he does obfuscate and weave. Aussies traditionally hate “used car salesmen” – so they must despise this bloke, surely???
I don’t reckon he has that much contact with the real world. All controlled media stuff and brief presentations amongst tame media and selected audiences.
The uniparty have put us in this position. Yet a large percentage of the voting public will still vote for either Labor or Liberal.
With this mindset I expect nothing to change.
Vote Labor – (dog turd). Vote Liberal – (cat turd).
I detest both parties.
In South Africa recently we saw the results of a disintegrating power system first hand. The first thing urban people did when they arranged to meet was to ask of each other ‘what are your load-sharing times’?
Life with load-sharing can hobble along, and therein lies our main danger. The serious deficiencies of the Bowen nightmare are ‘accommoded’ slowly until things are allowed to get much much worse.
Peter,
Some version of Linux with Libre Office is the go.
I run LinuxMint and Debian with Cinnamon.
You could set up your laptop to dual boot.
Thanks NFA but I have decided to die oblivious to browser options.
Paid $473 to have new hard drive and Windows 11 installed.
and Office installed locally as well I hope.
I’ll play the violin, very badly, as the ship descends beneath the waves.
Australia has too many BureauPrats.
Unleash the DOGE’s now.
Politicians “happened” to us.
We need to call out the so-called pragmatic centrist parties, ALP & LNP, for what they are: ideologically driven extremists degrading our country and our quality of life.
Copied from the Open Thread.
As the probability of blackouts rises, we need to think through what we should lobby out local members to set as priorities.
Starting on the negative side, TV and radio must be early targets. Each uses lots of electricity, and should this be limited to, say, two hours per day for major networks only.
Then newspapers, restrict them to three sheets of paper (12 pages) per day.
Close down most public service central offices, keep only elements that deal across the counter, but put senior staff in with them to handle the difficult matters.
Restrict shopping hours to two hours around lunchtime and again after 1600.
All of the above should happen before power is cut off to industry and suburbia. Better that fridges and freezers keep working than media and public service.
Our little bush town often gets power outages, so we have learned to adapt.
5kva diesel genny that sits outside with a cover over it. Remove cover and start. Extesion lead feeds inside to where the fridge, freezer and one window aircon can all be run off it. Neighbours don’t complain about the noise as they either have their own or find it easier to not annoy me.
200 watt solar panel on the shed roof, feeding 120AH battery. Battery runs the starlink system and a few 12v led lights inside. No requirement for a leccie to wire it. Battery is also coupled to an intelligent 240v charger to keep it full all the time.
All up probably $3k and lasts us through every outage we have had in the last 5 years, the longest being 6 hours.
Apparently our town is getting a new solar “farm” and battery to reduce the reliance on gas.
Several of the large minesites (e.g.Goldfields Agnew plant, Liontown’s Kathleen Valley) in the area are using wind and solar with gas to do the work during the night and as needed elsewhere. Mine sites have a very stable demand profile with the big usage going to the milling circuits.
6 hour outage!
How lucky are you.
10 hours out is regular.
Why don’t you have your computer and modem connected via a $100 UPS power supply? It would keep the desktop going for a while, the modem for a longer while.