I have written a few blogs on tariffs for Quadrant online and recently had a to and fro with a Roger Partridge who is the Chairman and senior fellow at the New Zealand Initiative. The New Zealand Initiative is a free-market think tank. Partridge describes himself as a Classical Liberal. All of this seems fine, more strength to them. However, as with Libertarians, Classical Liberals have a hang-up about free international trade.
My own views have altered. I used to be a free trader. Then again, I used to be on the left of the political spectrum. One sees the light, if one is fortunate. Old lefties are full of the silly ideas of their youth without the excuse of being youthful. It is pitiable really, if it wasn’t so tragic. And corrupting and damaging too, if they gain positions of influence. Anyway, back to trade.
It is not hard to describe the battlelines. Free traders trace their views back to economists such as Adam Smith, Frédéric Bastiat, John Stuart Mill, and David Ricardo. All names to conjure with. Ricardo developed the theory of comparative advantage which showed that trade was generally beneficial between two countries even when one was more efficient at producing all tradeable goods. “The most beautiful result in all of economics,” was how one contributor to the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics described it.
Overall world production tends to be optimised when countries specialise in what they do relatively best, export their surplus production, and import what they need. Potentially, all countries can become better off. Tariffs get in the way; as, it should be clearly noted, do subsidies of one kind or another.
But – and it’s a big but – national life isn’t just about increasing prosperity, as important as that is. Among other things, it is about culture enriched by industrial diversity, and it is about security of supplies. Taken to a limit, free trade might mean that a country specialises in just one tradeable good and imports the rest. Of course that limit is unlikely ever to be reached. However, a country can be left with a very pared down manufacturing sector. Think of Australia and think of planes, ships, trains, buses, cars, white goods, electronics, clothing, footwear, toys, tools, medicines and so on into building materials like plate glass. All mostly imported. At some point, it is legitimate to ask whether untrammelled trade is too costly culturally and, also, in terms of national security, even if it brings monetary benefits.
When it comes to America the question is particularly pertinent due to its role of being the principal military defender of the West. America currently imports almost half of its aluminium supplies and is the biggest importer of steel. That might be costly if ever it came to war. As would its reliance on overseas supplies of medicines and medical equipment. Now when you put a mercantilist, unprincipled, growing military power into the mix, namely China, the plot thickens. What price free trade when it weakens America and strengthens China?
Personally, I believe that those who argue in support of free trade live out their theory in a world which possibly existed in the nineteenth century but exists no longer. They have a blinkered view. Oblivious to everything that matters except money. Trump is right in trying to restore traditional manufacturing in America. He is right in trying to make America much more self-sufficient in strategic materials and goods. He is right that a massive US trade deficit of USD1.2 trillion in 2024 is indicative of something going badly wrong. And he is right that import duties (effectively, the 10 percent tariff) might help reduce the unsustainable US budget deficit.
Whether his approach is without fault is another question. But critics should consider the fact that the house is on fire and not only is he is the only one doing something to put it out he is the only one with the guts to try to put it out. Constructive criticisms, fine. But booing and heckling from the sidelines is unbecoming.
Talking about unbecoming, reportedly Richard Branson said, “Mr Trump’s erratic policymaking had shattered business confidence…many Americans I know are very sad.” Hmm? How many American factory workers and coal miners does Branson know? Just wonderin’.
Great commentary, Peter.
Thank you for that.
I subscribe to ‘Open Trade’ whereby everyone knows the hidden costs.
I wonder how many Australians know how much they benefit from slavery in China and other countries.
Yes. Adam Smith et al. considered only the financial aspect and ignored all other factors. There are many. Much the same arguments go for open borders.
Time to put Adam Smith to bed.
His theories have proved wrong, in detail and over all.
On Agricultural imports:
Adam Smith did not foresee refrigerated transport, nor that the UK would import beef and lamb from the antipodes.
Adam Smith was unable to foresee favourable nation status for China and free shipping:
Could not foresee the EU, butter mountains, French farmers or dumping:
Was incapable of conceiving that Britain would not, one day, rule the waves, or that 20th century free traders would be so stupid as to not exempt defence from their stupid theories based on his work, could not comprehend that the UK would one day be supplied by shipping under flags of convenience:
Adam Smith lived in a time when it was inconceivable that Britain would lose naval dominance, or that Britons would allow their defence to slide into disrepair.
He lived at the height of industrialisation and his insights were for that time, and contained many oversights, as well as many cautions or assumptions that modern free traders ignore. He was neither the pureist they imagine, nor in a position to predict the future of trade.
Another thing that those quoting Smith ignore is that at that time revenue was taxes on goods. Smith wasn’t claiming that there should be no taxes on imports, only that they shouldn’t be used to build monopolies at home. Given that revenues came from taxes on goods and granting monopolies on certain trades, (there were no income taxes) Smith is not to be taken as making the argument for unfettered free trade as modern free traders think of it.
I’m sorry you’ve moved away from free trade and become a protectionist, Peter. I guess what used to be fashionable no longer is.
Consider the current state of Australia. We’ve imposed energy policies that, over the past three years or so, have seen electricity prices rise by more than 40%. Our labor markets are completely constipated and immune to any sort of reform.
You may be prepared to pay $50 for a pair of Australian-made socks, but I’m not.
De-industrialization didn’t occur solely because of cheaper wages elsewhere.
Liberalize the labor, energy, and real estate markets, and things will be made here again. Until that happens, nothing will work—not even protectionism.
All protectionism would do is force capital allocation to sectors with a lower ROI and will bring forward lower living standards.
Energy is the most important thing that the left/green ideologues have stuffed up. Given time they will do the same to mining and agriculture.
Roger Partridge is to Quadrant what Jessica Tarlov is to The Five.
A waste of space.
Ditto Harold Ford jr. who has, like her, spent the past four years excusing the Biden Puppetocracy for everything.
Not to mention playing funny buggers with your currency
There is no such thing as Free Trade.
The Great Powers will always play games for their own advantage.