Saved from the nest on Ye Olde Fredde. Curtin’s “beating the big drum to stop the work force going on…
Open Thread – Weekend 18 Dec 2021
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Curtin’s “beating the big drum to stop the work force going on strike” was probably his greatest contribution. Even then…
At 6.30am AET, a total of 70% of the electricity used across the five states in the Eastern grid was…
Our resident Maggies are rearing their second fledglings this year. Hope they get rid of them earlier than last year’s…
Watched my honeyeater kick the kiddies out of the nest and they’re gone. I love nature.
For some of us it never went away. Nor the gourd.
And top o’ the page. Thank you linesmen. Thank you ballboys.
Well this is somewhat embarrassing.
Looky looky. There is a new open thread.
Stumps.
The Oxford PRINCIPLE trial commenced in June.
“But this is where common sense and intuition gets us – and the public – into trouble.”
Yep – as I explained on the old Cat several times, if the general prevalence is 1 per 10,000 in the general population, even a 99% accurate test can mean a positive test is only a 1% chance of actually being infected (run the numbers yourself with a synthetic “perfect sample”).
If you actually walk through this slowly, most people can grasp it, but are loathe to really believe it, or use it to ask questions about what it means for covid numbers we saw early on – even nurses and doctors will allow their “common sense” to over-rule their reasoning facilities in this regard.
Example with different numbers is here (less than 5 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_c3xZvHto3k