Lurking after midnight. Don’t know why really. Just because. But to all regular posters: keep it up, go hard put…
Open Thread – Weekend 18 Dec 2021
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- Open Thread – Tues 28 Jan 2025
- Flying the Flag
- Open Thread – Australia Day Weekend 2025
- Open Thread – Thurs 23 Jan 2025
As loath as I am to drag stuff from thread to thread – from the OOT: for a while there…
BAM. This thread dedicated to pissing rain in North Quenthland.
No one is disputing that Timber Sycamore began in 2012. Not sure why I have to ‘note the year’. On…
What you talkin; about white boy? I bin here 600 000 years before youse invaders! I claim first!
For some of us it never went away. Nor the gourd.
And top o’ the page. Thank you linesmen. Thank you ballboys.
Well this is somewhat embarrassing.
Looky looky. There is a new open thread.
Stumps.
The Oxford PRINCIPLE trial commenced in June.
“But this is where common sense and intuition gets us – and the public – into trouble.”
Yep – as I explained on the old Cat several times, if the general prevalence is 1 per 10,000 in the general population, even a 99% accurate test can mean a positive test is only a 1% chance of actually being infected (run the numbers yourself with a synthetic “perfect sample”).
If you actually walk through this slowly, most people can grasp it, but are loathe to really believe it, or use it to ask questions about what it means for covid numbers we saw early on – even nurses and doctors will allow their “common sense” to over-rule their reasoning facilities in this regard.
Example with different numbers is here (less than 5 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_c3xZvHto3k