1,007 thoughts on “Open Thread – Weekend 18 Dec 2021”

  1. “But this is where common sense and intuition gets us – and the public – into trouble.”

    Yep – as I explained on the old Cat several times, if the general prevalence is 1 per 10,000 in the general population, even a 99% accurate test can mean a positive test is only a 1% chance of actually being infected (run the numbers yourself with a synthetic “perfect sample”).

    If you actually walk through this slowly, most people can grasp it, but are loathe to really believe it, or use it to ask questions about what it means for covid numbers we saw early on – even nurses and doctors will allow their “common sense” to over-rule their reasoning facilities in this regard.

    Example with different numbers is here (less than 5 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_c3xZvHto3k


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