A recent survey of the Australian electorate appears to indicate a catastrophic defeat is in the sights of the Yes campaign (Newspoll on the weekend had Yes at 43%, No, 46%, and 11% undecided while Essential just today had Yes again at 43, No, 47, and 10 undecided). Here are the results by party, state and location:
Yes is struggling to maintain even a majority of Labor voters in favour of the Voice. Only a fifth of Coalition voters are supportive of the Voice, and it is doing only a little bit better with parties other than the Coalition, Labor or Greens with only a little over a third supporting the Voice. Not a single state appears to enjoy a majority in favour of the Voice, while by locality, inner Metro is split, outer metro is majority No, while provincial and rural Australia is resoundingly No, with Yes doing even worse in provincial areas (32%) compared to rural (40%). Centre right politics needs to take note of that difference and others regarding its future bases of political support.
By demographic group:
The Voice can’t win a majority of women (45), even fewer men (42), manages to win nearly two-thirds of 18-34 yr olds (63) , but only a minority of 35-49 yr olds (48) and just over a third of 50-64 yr olds (35). It has a small majority of university educated (56), but every other educational group it loses convincingly, particularly those with TAFE, trade or vocational qualifications (33). When you look at household income, it only captures a bare majority of those with more than $200K household income. And the pattern there while almost a majority between $50K-$79K (48) gradual declines as household incomes rises, $80K-$199K (44) and again $120K-$200K (43) until we get to the +$200K band. It’s probably these two middle bands that you find those households with much of the TAFE, trade or vocational qualifications as well as mixed uni/ other educational qualifications households. The +$200K will very likely have the professional class whose ‘culture’ more closely alignes with the Yes vote but even here it is a bare majority.
Which gets us to the following explanation given by Kos re the principle cause/s for the terrible results for the Yes campaign:
This explanation isn’t at all plausible. If support for the Yes campaign is so sensitive to economic conditions it simply indicates that voting Yes is a luxury signal large demographic segments can’t afford in bad economic times. They would prefer the efforts of the professional and political classes being more focused on more pressing issues to the majority of the Australian electorate, like the state of the economy, the prevailing geopolitical environment, and so on. This is simply indicated by the breadth of the No vote across age, education, household, religion, and language groups. And this is leaving aside the fact that grievances can be legitimate, or that Yes, Pay the Rent, and the like are themselves instances of the politics of grievance.
Fascinating that men and women are so closely matched. Usually women go for the progressive “feel good” stuff in droves.
Do you have any thoughts on the Catholic/Protestant divide?
My take is that last year the so-called politics of grievance voters broadly thought the impending referendum was about recognition of indigenous people in the Constitution, but they have slowly come to realise that it’s also about the voice to parliament, and they don’t like what’s on offer. It hasn’t helped the Yes cause that its proponents have sneakily started massaging their message to emphasise recognition while down-playing the voice; it looks like the are trying to smuggle the voice through on the sly.
Maybe it’s a paternalism v exceptionalism difference between the sexes Calli, most famously framed on the silver screen as Kidman’s motherly Lady Ashley v Jackman’s mystical-exceptional Drover in Australia. Women aren’t as Yes as you might think, because they know what’s good for growing up kids, and maybe men are a lot more Yes than you’d think because they would rather cut the strays loose and let somebody else deal with the fallout?
For my money, the last straws were Linda Burney’s and Thomas Mayo’s utterances on the subject
Hard to say, Calli. It would be interesting to see how the other demo groups interact with Catholic and Protestant. Politically, though, I think it indicates that Protestants are predominantly Coalition voters while Catholics are present in more or less equal numbers in both major parties. What impresses me about the results is that there is a uniform No pretty much across the polity and given the trend that only likely to firm.
I mentioned in the OT yesterday that one of the striking results of the poll is how poorly this is playing out in provincial Australia compared to rural Australia. Although I’d like to know a little more about how either was identified in this poll, there is a striking similarity between Coalition voters and provincial voters but a weaker one involving rural voters. That’s very interesting.
1. The Statement from Uluru demands a % of GDP in perpetuity, no?
2. Regional cities and towns are actually the most livable, happiest locales in the country outside of Bowral or the Mornington Peninsula.
3. Funny how a bunch of dumb low-paid losers can afford huge mortgages in the millions…?
4. Those with grievances are more likely net taxpayers and otherwise have their income delinked from government patronage or services.
5. You’d be dumb as rocks to not understand why a farmer is more concerned over land rights than a rootless cosmopolitan rent schlepper.
Interesting the last demographic slice.
Language spoken at home : English only v Other Languages.
Other languages: Cannot read the detail, happy to go with the vibe. …or what China Central Television advises.
Thanks Dover.
The buggers just stole one of their hospitals and still they vote for them? They imprisoned a Cardinal on false pretences? Accused and mocked religious who look after the poor and sick?
Labor is no friend of the Church, whatever it’s stripe.
I’m actually surprised the NO vote isn’t even further ahead given the vague, deceptive (to be kind) ramblings of Albanese, and Burney and the in your face declarations by the radical authors, of you paying reparations, rent and part of GDP. Hip pocket nerve always wins out over mushy vibe, feelgood crap.
I agree this trend will firm.
Have never expected the majority to be swayed by the syrupy ‘gracious’/’goodwill’ spin of the urgers, trying to smuggle this greedy push for power through “on the sly” (Tony Taylor 4:10)
It’s not a racist comment but I did predict that those who’ve interacted more with Indigenous (not the activist type but the burban type) would be more likely voting no.
Believe me Calli, I try!!! There’s something about the “bleeding hearts” – it drains the head.
Interesting post.
Looking at the sample size and confidence interval, I’d say there is little variation between income groups above $50,000. Not sure that this reflects the ‘politics of grievance’; more that people on pensions and struggle street are thoroughly shitted with a government that seems to be focused on one section of the community – while they fall sharply backwards with rent rises, booming power bills, and unaffordable groceries.
The reasons for voting Yes or No topic is also particularly interesting and graphically illustrates how poorly the Yes campaign has targeted the undecided and ‘loose No’ vote. A huge 26% of Yes voters (rusted on and loose) would vote that way for reasons other than outlined in the official Yes Pamphlet – so, effectively, are out of touch with the campaign.
And a tweety proportion of voters believe that the Voice will make government more efficient, or accept the Pearson ‘it will save money’ argument.
Rather sweetly, it’s only the Greens who are drawn to the ‘It’s Time’ argument.
Overall, my takeaway is that Albanese’s politically-driven dissembling has confused the issue so comprehensively that, irrespective of outcome, on the other side of the Referendum Australia will be a significantly more divided place.
If there was one issue that required clear and cogent argument it was this, because there is a problem that needs to be fixed. What it was treated to instead was emoting and obvious humbugging – which has leaked into the works.
I’m not completely confident it will lose – the work shaming and bullying hasn’t started yet – but I am thankful the Yes campaign has botched almost every step so far. Including “launching” it with an American basketballer. Just pathetic.
Dan says there has to be a better way.
Daniel Andrews outlines the ‘simple’ reason he is backing the Voice as he is quizzed on faltering support for proposal in Victoria (Sky News, 8 Aug)
Yes, kiddo, there is. Not down the Voice rabbit hole of grievance and munni. Maybe have a conversation with Mal Brough, he might have some suggestions.
Everyone in Australia, black, yellow, white or in between should be absolutely equal before the law. Instituting an apartheid never works. Orwell warned of this in Animal Farm.
I suspect that – the Uniting Church excepted – the social justice gospel is rather less advanced among Protestant laity than among Catholics.
Or should I say the social justice pseudo-gospel?
Yes.
(Sorry for the trouble, dover; my old computer died today; despite migrating all my data – & am trying to sound more technically competent than I am here – to the new one with mostly success my Cat id seems to have become lost in transition.)
Thanks, dover mate!
I find it hard to understand why the No vote is not “streets” ahead!
The indoctrination of a generation and a half of young people in our “education” system may have something to do with that.
Albo retargeting his “pretty brave government” rhetoric from InVoice over to holidays.
Desperately bribing the electorate with holidays, that’s how closely he’s tied himself to the sinking lip.
I’m not. As it has always been politics is about feelings and assumptions not evidence and logic.
A bleeding heart drains the head.
Now that’s quite good Lysander.
If I was Aboriginal I’d be pretty insulted by this.
Imagine getting a Greek person to represent the Qubecqois in a secession referendum.
Rossini, I think you’ll find that’s because a large slab of the no vote is hiding in the undecided column.
Since anyone planning to vote no is shamed as a racist, undecided is a temporary safe house to avoid public opprobrium.
The extent of the collapse of the yes vote will be revealed only in the privacy of the ballot box.
The AEC said after the last Federal election that 30% of the electorate “did not vote”.
Not voted informally, but “did not vote”.
That figure seems, …….., Unbelievable to me.
I wrote to the AEC and requested the number of infringements that were despatched, compared to the last two elections.
Even four months after the election, “we are still compiling the lists” was the reply.
I am in no way suggesting that the “Minister for Everything” and his gang of incompetent, treacherous dogs were dudded, in any way.
The 30% figure, was approximately what the Independents were supposed to receive.
Cannot possibly upset the status quo and have the people’s wishes actually represented in Parliament.
Of course, I have no proof, that votes for independents were shoved in the back of vans and burnt, (like the Democrats do in the Banana Republic of America), but it would not surprise.
Anyway, the point is, as Stalin said, “it is the counters of the votes that matter!”
Expect a shock result in the referendum.
That is why our intellectually challenged PM hasn’t stopped this travesty, he knows what will occur.
I’ve written it a hundred times: Victorians in general are not the full quid. Been down there dozens of times and always found them to mostly be none-too-bright.’ anyone STILL doubting this gross generalization could maybe tell us why they re-elected Andrews after years of being bashed and abused…and now why, while Qld is running at about 65-35 anti Voice, THEY are still neck and neck to become slaves of teh billionaire white_Aboriginal class.
Is it all the blokes having their knackers too tightly squeezed when poncing about in tiny-teeny shorts at what they call “footy” while millions cheer them on? Is it the sheilas living mostly in freezing climes where they get scant chance to soak up a bit of Vitamin D to eradicate the pasty skin and rickets-riddled bones (“osteoporosis”: yeah, sure)? Yes. Yes…and Yes.
During the 5th or 10th lock-down in Victoria, I offered on the Old Cat, and then the New Cat, to wait across the Murray on the NSW side with a fast outboard half-cabin cruiser to rescue a few bloggers wanting to savour the sounds and smells of freedom….then on to Qld. But no-one showed up: not a one!
I lived in West berlin for a number of years and helped a few get out…Main scam, a meeting roadside en route from West Berlin across the DDR to West Germany, then hiding in the car. They may have been Krauts but they were NOT cowards and slaves like most Victorians!
What IS wrong with the drongos in teh deep south FFS?
“Mantaray
What is wrong in the deep south”
We’ve had two rounds of Liberal governments in 20 or so years, both hopelessly outnumbered by the extremely left wing public service, as well as having a lack of depth and talent. The last one tried, ah la PM Tony Abbott to suck up to the left thinking they would like him or give him a fair go, how stupidly naive.
Even if the political party in government here changed, we still have lefty judges put in place by the Labor Party, extreme lefty public service and all the institutions heavily unionised.
I’ve been here near 30 years, coming from Sydney and I agree, why the F do they keep voting for Labor? (I moved to Vic for my job, had no choice if I wanted to stay in my industry sector)
During all the covid stuff, you had to be very careful expressing disagreement with the government here, all parts of society and particularly the media were busy defending the Labor government. They would have done so even if it wasn’t Dan Andrews leading Labor. The people who tried to disagree and protest were crushed and the media loved it and cheered the fascist government on.
Conservatives are generally hated here, state and federal politicians both. The media here are huge barrackers for lefty government and policy, they are all greenies. It’s little wonder the manufacturing here is almost dead.
Even big business here tends to lean left in their management. I do laugh though at all the senior business people who wanted PM Scott Morrison out and thought they were going to do well with PM Albo (I fight tories, it’s what I do) and ended up with rabid Tony Burke, doing what he did to them last time he was in parliament.
Victoria – I don’t really understand how it got this way. I see symptoms though, senior business people who should be horrified of Labor, suck up to them constantly, hard to understand why.
I’ll bet Victoria votes Yes for the Voice, it’s in their nature to side with Labor, regardless of the damage to themselves as they are convinced it’s better than voting for conservatives.
Maybe it is the footy code, you might have something there, or the school propaganda system churning out lefties.
Greens are populated by people who are fully invested in unrealistic feel-good policies with no tangible outcomes.
Is it any surprise they love the voice, too?
Fortunately, the majority of the Australian electorate is actually pragmatic and sensible – as they have been in past referenda.
Billie (11.08am). Yeah, you see things straight….but you are a non-Victorian originally…which makes ALL the difference!
I lived in Victoria under the last government that drove the state to near-bankruptcy, Kirner was a hopeless leader with zero ability to execute any policy not fully approved by the socialist left faction she reported to.
I feel Victoria has a strange view of itself as a state, its constantly compared to Sydney/NSW and doesn’t enjoy the comparison. Victorians accept all manner of political and economic idiocy because …. “not Sydney”.
Vic Pollies know this and explain the deranged policies as something that Sydney is not smart or caring enough to do.
The ABC must be getting worried. They have a story today on support for the Voice from faith leaders in Alice Springs. Faith leaders for the ABC (at least if the Christian and Jewish variety) are usually superstitious, cretinous, genocidal, misogynistic, homophobic, transphobic Nazi bigot scum.
On Victoria. Geographically it’s too small, which has the effect of spreading the left wing agenda quite easily into the regions. The satellite cities/towns are mostly only a couple of hours from the big smoke, enabling commuters to commute quite easily.
When Caine and Kirner wrecked the state and Kennett’s job was to try to resuscitate the carcass, all those Victorians who went north, took their politics with them, all the way to south east QLD. Now, look at QLD.
Footy is another thing that has enabled the left to take control. Victorians will (almost?) accept anything, just so long their team wins.
In fact I’m not only hoping like hell that the ‘Pies lose the GF, and for all of the reasons that non-Collingwood footy supporters usually name as reason enough; I’m also of the opinion that if they go down it will cause another significant demographic to rise up in a No vote: the pissed off black and white army.
(SP, if you’re about, mid Oct is firming for the date).
PS, what’s happened to the up ticks? There’s a number of comments I would have ticked.
Indeed there is. However, the ‘voice’ is definitely not the answer. In fact a Yes vote would ensure that dysfunctional Aboriginal communities remain in perpetuity.
As I see it, those communities are the source of power for the Aboriginal industry. If they went, so would Aboriginal Industry power. The ‘voice’ is only step one of the shake-down.
The turnout was 89.82%. The blank and invalid votes were 5.19%.
The enrolment rate nationally for 2022 was 97.1%.
The AEC did not say any of what you suppose. The amount of Australians (those eligible, and thus legally are obliged to be electors under our compulsory voting farce) who “did not vote” but “should have” was 17.82%, not 30%.
Why do you post this errant nonsense here?
PS
No one is giving the AEC or the rest of the maaates in our establishment a pass.
“I find it hard to understand why the No vote is not “streets” ahead!”
Makes you wonder if it is just “Tell the polster the PC thing, then do the opposite in the privacy of the voting booth”.
Wodger:
I have two nephews in the 40 – 50 year group and they’re actually livid about whole thing.
They still remember the school days of special treatment given to Aboriginal kids, the free excursions, sausage sizzle days, pocket money each week, the being refused entry to Aboriginal classes etc.
I don’t blame them for their attitudes.
And they see that the ‘gimme munni’ aspect of Aboriginal Culture will never disappear.
Rufus T Firefly
Quite correct, Rufus.
But what will we do when the day after the votes are counted and there is a huge swing to the ‘Yes’ side?
It’s complete nonsense.