Elevenses is really an early afternoon tea.

Not really. It is morning tea. At around 11.00 am.

Indolent
Aug 11, 2023 7:27 PM
Tucker Carlson Tonight 8/10/23 E.P 15 | Tucker Carlson Tonight August 10, 2023

I couldn’t even make it halfway through the episode. The guy kept referring to the demonstrators entering the Capitol as “the attack”. The only ones attacked were the protesters.

This place is fairly oozing bonhomie tonight.

Is this the calm before the storm?

About twice a year, my sister and I take Mum for High Tea in the QVB Tea Room here in Sydney’s CBD

High tea at the Raffles in Singapore, or the Peninsular in Hong Kong is the last word in colonial decadence….

Jason Riley – African American opinion writer for the WSJ, explains to the WSJ readership what the Squeal is about.

Australia Asks Voters to Expand a Racial Welfare State
The referendum to give indigenous people a special ‘voice’ would only worsen disparities.

By Jason L. Riley

The social-justice debate that has been roiling our politics in recent years is hardly unique to the U.S. At an academic conference in the U.K. this year, I heard all the same references to “systemic racism,” “unconscious bias” and “white privilege” that now dot our stateside discussions. The only difference was the accents.

Turns out, these conversations are taking place not only on the other side of the Atlantic but also on the other side of the world. You can’t visit Australia these days without hearing about the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum. After Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, leader of the center-left Labor Party, was elected last year, he promised to push for a ballot initiative amending the constitution to give indigenous Australians—and only them—a special “voice to parliament.” In June a law that would alter the constitution was approved by the Parliament, triggering a nationwide vote due to be held before the end of the year.

It’s difficult not to sympathize with the socioeconomic plight of aboriginal Australians. A 2016 report by the Australian Broadcasting Corp., the state news agency, noted that suicide rates in some indigenous communities are “among the worst in the world.” In one West Australian community 80% of the 125 suicides were indigenous people. Seventy-one percent of them were men, more than half of whom were under 30 and more than a quarter of whom were teenagers.

Aboriginal Australians are only about 3% of the country’s inhabitants yet are roughly 15% of its homicide victims and more than a quarter of its prison inmates. Writing in the current issue of Quadrant, an Australian monthly, Peter Purcell noted that in far too many aboriginal communities, domestic violence and child abuse are endemic. “Adult fighting among both men and women is common, as are clashes between families armed with machetes, crowbars and bats,” he wrote. “Daylight home invasions, vehicle theft, property damage and physical violence are the daily experience for townspeople.” In Alice Springs, in the Northern Territory that is home to the highest proportion of indigenous residents in the country, children as young as 5 can be found roaming the streets at night, “many drinking alcohol—including hand sanitizer—in soft drinks, or sniffing glue or petrol.”

The dozens of indigenous and non-indigenous Australians I spoke with during my weeklong visit weren’t indifferent to or unaware of these horrors. Still, the Voice referendum, based on current polling, is expected to fail, and some are now calling for Mr. Albanese to abandon the effort. Proponents must garner a majority of the total vote nationwide and a majority of the vote in four of the country’s six states. Earlier this year, it looked as if support would be relatively strong and bipartisan, but July surveys showed that enthusiasm among Labor and opposition voters alike had faded.

Part of the problem is the studied vagueness of the referendum’s language, which gives the impression that Mr. Albanese and his allies have something to hide. Australia already has an indigenous affairs minister, and aboriginal Australians won the right to vote in 1962. What, precisely, does enshrining an indigenous voice to Parliament in the constitution mean in practice? How can the government give a special voice to one racial group without necessarily diminishing other voices? Indian-Australians are the fastest-growing minority. Do they deserve constitutionally embedded special rights as well?

Supporters of the referendum can’t or won’t answer these questions. They say the details will be fleshed out at some future date and accuse skeptics of having ulterior motives. “While it is not true to say that every Australian who votes No in the Voice referendum is a racist,” said veteran Australian journalist Niki Savva, “you can bet your bottom dollar that every racist will vote No.”

Advocates speak of “historical injustices” and “reconciliation” with the same frequency and fervor of black and Native American activists in the U.S., but much of the harm being done to these communities is self-inflicted. In his essay, Mr. Purcell wrote that some 70% of aboriginal Australians in jail “are there for crimes of violence against their loved ones.” For many in the No camp, it’s not clear how a successful referendum would help close the gap in outcomes between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians.

Australia already spends billions of dollars annually on indigenous welfare programs. If a greater “voice” for the indigenous population simply translates into more government lucre for politically connected tribal elders and aboriginal elites in urban areas—which is the track record of racial preferences for minorities in countries all over the world—the result may well be wider social and economic disparities for everyday indigenous Australians. Worse, it will further subsidize antisocial behavior and thereby retard the development of attitudes, habits and skills that facilitate upward mobility.

For the interest of any who believe woke is weak in NQ here is the flight departures board at Cairns airport.

A cooked breakfast (not by you obvs) is a great luxury. Sat morning was always pick the papers up at 7-11 then either scrambled eggs or corn fitters. The cafe has now closed following a dispute with Yarra Trams.

We had breakfast at the Peninsula HK. Most disappointing. Eggs were ghastly and, let’s face it, if a hotel can’t cook breakfast eggs, what hope? (smirk)

High tea at Raffles was… well, I don’t remember the menu, really. I was too taken with the history of the place. Just imagine; a tiger, no less!

This fight thing appears to be real and it’s could possibly be held somewhere like a surrounding area of the coliseum or similar, in Rome. Musk is one crazy fcuk, and apparently has some serious spinal problems, but boy I hope he beats the living shit out of Fcukerberg.

Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
2m
The fight will be managed by my and Zuck’s foundations (not UFC).

Livestream will be on this platform and Meta. Everything in camera frame will be ancient Rome, so nothing modern at all.

I spoke to the PM of Italy and Minister of Culture. They have agreed on an epic location.

This person is a Marxist. As red as they come. He despises the Market Economy that has provided he and Australia with riches. He is a Traitor. Full stop.

For shame, don’t you know he was raised by a single mum, in public housing?

Pat Mac
Aug 11, 2023 9:41 PM

JC,,, you need banning for that awful triage.

And, I hope the reporter sent to get borbidges comment wasn’t young. ?

Just showing how it is, Pat. Aren’t they just disgusting. The three of those pikers together, looking pleased in each other’s presence. Oh God.

Just have to point out that the assisted migrant program UK to Australia ended in 1982, I knew someone that came out under the scheme in 1980.

Steve trickler
Aug 11, 2023 9:47 PM

Rodriguez (aka Sugarman)

Crucify Your Mind has a great intro.

anyone game to ask how much is being forked out for these.

anyone game to ask how much is being forked out for these.

This is going to be a growth industry…

Businessman Alan Bond moved to Australia with his parents in 1950. He was named “Australian of the Year” in 1978.

He should have been made to swim back to England.

This is what TDS looks like on the streets.

I saw this idiot in the same garb on 5th near Trump Tower.

About twice a year, my sister and I take Mum for High Tea in the QVB Tea Room here in Sydney’s CBD

High tea at the Raffles in Singapore, or the Peninsular in Hong Kong is the last word in colonial decadence….

We’re booked on Cunard next year (against my wishes). Let’s see how their daily “high tea” fares.

Oh, Lord … where’s the bar??

Businessman Alan Bond moved to Australia with his parents in 1950. He was named “Australian of the Year” in 1978.

And who gave him that ‘gong’? An Australian?

And who gave him that ‘gong’? An Australian?

Bond won the Australian of the Year in 1978, along with Galarrwuy Yunupingu. Great recommendation.

Alamak, please say you didn’t work for Citi. 🙂

I don’t believe there are bubbles. Bubbles are more correctly described as price discovery by markets. These days, everything is described as a bubble if prices are going higher. It’s bullshit.

Of course there are bubbles but Central Banks can’t see them as they have blinkers on. The smart money has already moved on as they are in the know. The punters get screwed and fleeced as they are the sheep.

The price discovery is after the horse has bolted and the so called authorities turn up to shut the gate. Way too late. QED.

Feminists’ Fear and Loathing of Their Own Sons

Clearing the Fog of ‘Unprovoked’ War

JC> I never stooped that low(“Citi”). BOA was my employer at that time and ML before that

Okay. I bought a load of BoA stock from 15 bucks down to just about 5 bucks. I still have them even though the stock hit 50 and change about a 1 1/2 years ago. I was shitting myself when it was 5 though. I think it’s heading to 70
in a few years time.

Fear and greed. I didn’t sell at 50 because of the cap gain theft.

I was offered a job with BofA in the late 90s but didn’t take it. It was beneath me when working for Credit Suisse. 🙂 Didn’t want to live in HK either.

Actuaries vs. wokeism

Incomprehensible Eurotrash bilge, and typical of the species.

The only thing missing was the national dish, the chicken tikka.

Not a bad species to settle on the Great Southern Land. And to speak English as well. Roast beef with Yorkshire pudding would have been the fare of the day, Chicken tikka came later when you let the Indians in here. And the Chinese and everyone else.

How does it feel to be a minority in your own country? Now I can see why you get so angry with yourself. I can put you in touch with a good analyst if it might help. LOL.

Jack Poso
@JackPosobiec

Craig Robertson’s family statement in full

Meme

Bubbles shubbles

“Bubbles,” cognitive illusions, and the peso problem
Let’s suppose that every once in a while an asset comes along that is extremely difficult to value. It might have an extraordinarily high value, or much more likely it will soon be worthless. One example might be a dotcom company (or mobile apps, if that’s the 21at century equivalent.) Another example might be Bitcoin.

How should Bitcoin be priced? If there is a 95% chance that it will soon be worthless and a 5% chance that it will soon hit $1000, then $30 seems like a relatively fair price. That allows for a substantial expected gain ($50 minus interest costs would be the risk-neutral price.) But Bitcoin is very risky, so investors need to be compensated with an above average expected rate of return.

Now consider a point in time where the asset is selling at $30, and investors have not yet discovered whether it will eventually reach $1000. Should you predict that the price is a bubble? Yes and no. It is likely to eventually look like it was a bubble at $30. Indeed 95% of such assets will eventually see their price collapse. That’s “statistically significant.” It’s also significant in a sociological sense. Those that call “bubble” when the price is at $30 will be right 95% of the time, and hence will be seen as having the “correct model” of bubbles by the vast majority of people. Those who denied bubble will be wrong 95% of the time, and will be seen as being hopelessly naive by the average person. And this is despite the fact that in all these cases there is no bubble, as by construction I assumed the EMH was exactly true.

This post is motivated by earlier predictions that suggested Bitcoins were a bubble at $30, and hinted it might be a bubble at $2. I predict that eventually the price of Bitcoins will fall sharply (from some level of which I am not able to predict) and people will vaguely recall:

“Wasn’t Scott Sumner the guy who denied Bitcoins was a bubble? What an idiot.”

Defending the EMH is a lonely crusade that can only end in tears and ridicule, unless you are Eugene Fama, in which case it ends in a Nobel Prize and ridicule. And I’m not Fama.

And yet the EMH is true . . . er, truish in the Richard Rorty sense.

PS. The hidden agenda of this post is that spectacular price increases after incorrect bubble calls should count heavily against the bubble model, indeed roughly 20 times as heavily as a correct call in the case above. Don’t look for reputations to be adjusted according to this metric. Markets may be rational, but the assignment of scientific prestige in bubble theory is highly irrational.

PPS. Of course many bubble proponents like Cowen and Krugman and Shiller deserve their high academic reputation, but for reasons unrelated to bubble analysis.

Knuckle Dragger
Aug 11, 2023 10:13 PM

The only moaner here is you. Keep up your good work. Very impressive. Not.

Go back and look at all of the posts that you and I have made. You are the only moaner here. FFS. Tosser. With 2 big chips on your weak shoulders. Well balanced and stoopid.

JC> weakness of the “pure” EMH is that information on assets does not spread everywhere with the same speed or understanding. Leaves plenty of room for markets to be “wrong” while everybody catches up on relevant news about an asset and what the news means.

Financial markets are the most liquid and information rich of any. Information is instant.

CS were known to have cr.appy systems and loose risk management years ago. Like DB, a bunch of provincials trying to run a global IB will always end in tear. BOA shares will do well while Moynihan runs the shop, he’s done a good job.

NY ran the investment bank and did okay in the 90s and up to 2012. I don’t know and cannot understand what happened to them .UBS has a great deal on the private bank side.

I’m long the stock and think it will have a gear run up.