I’m trialing the use of polls for the blog. Would be interesting to get an idea of what people are thinking on this or that issue/ event. We begin today with the impeding ground operation of the IDF in Gaza. The poll is open for 24 hours.
Yes, thank you for confirming that in the UN scenario the ratio of global industrial production is 4:1 in China’s…
I’ve voted!
The IDF are training for really sh1tty urban warfare. Their reserves need refresher time, it’s been a while since they last had to do it.
They also need to find enough bulldozers.
Israeli defense official says Gaza will be reduced to a ‘city of tents’ (11 Oct)
The Quiz Maker link at the top right opens a quiz configuration screen – doesn’t link to a poll.
It’s the hostages
I reckon a week at most. Troops have been rehearsing but the enemy has been preparing & booby trapping. The calling up and massing 3 armoured/motorised Brigades on the border needs to keep momentum. They can only remain idle for so long and the other risk to Israel’s plans is world opinion that as we have seen is fickle.
Its a terrible poll.. I feel like a ghoul.
I have an inkling that Israel is already sending in forward troops under cover… to get a lie of the tunnels and traps that await the regular ground troops.
Its going to be slow and ugly. Israel must stand fast and ignore the world’s nannies.
Oh – and the bombing of the Syrian airfields (what happened to that? The world’s media went somewhat quiet) suggests direct air raids some time in the very near future before the runways can be repaired.
Either that, or the Israeli’s got wind on planned Syrian action and put a stop to it.
Katzenjammer, should be able to see the poll on mobile and tablet too. The QuizMaker link is just a general link to their site.
Reportedly, the Israelis found out about Iranian cargo flight containing special munitions being flown into Syria. They bombed the Damascus and Aleppo runways and the Iranians turned back.
BTW, I don’t quite know my mind on this question just yet. So many considerations involved.
dover, on a PC can see and click the poll on Chrome, can’t see it on Firefox or Opera.
About a week and a half. Foreward scouts are already in Gaza along with long term sleepers. Extra volunteers have turned up who need to be organised according to their skills. Need to arrange food, medical gear, etc along secure supply lines, and removal of wounded and KIAs. Diplomatic support is most likely being negotiated to ward off UN and NGOs.
When the battle space is prepared to their satisfaction is when they will go.
How they define that will determine how long it takes.
The carnage inflicted by Hamas forces Israel into a corner – this was not some obscure low-grade border incursion or a few extra rockets* – Israel must respond with devastating force as a message that it will not accept these terrorist actions.
Israel has the added complication of the hostages and Hamas release of two a few days ago is obviously a delaying tactic and, to drive home the message that if Israel invades, the remaining hostages will be killed. Hamas are despicable cowards and terrorists but they are smart enough to know that ‘drip feeding’ hostages back to Israel will buy some time to prepare for the inevitable Israeli response.
Netanyahu is in an invidious position. He would be under immense pressure (and desire) to launch Operation Righteous Vengeance (my words – not official) yet he must at least try to recover as many hostages as possible, pre-invasion. Meanwhile, he would be acutely aware that every delay allows Hamas to prepare with booby traps, other weapons and sniper positions. The potential cost to the Israeli armed forces climbs by the day.
Further, additional delays allow the ‘friends of Palestine’ and the MSM to increase their calls for restraint. Many countries around the world have seen pro-Palestinian support including some with vile anti-Semitic chanting. Iran, of course, is issuing dark threats if Israel acts as expected.
Personally, I’d be happy to see Gaza turned into a carpark for a new Waterworld but then, I’m sitting in a comfortable chair 10,000kms away. The geo-politics of all this are significant and have global implications.
* which does not diminish Israel’s right to defend itself but I doubt they would have mobilised 350,000+ troops.
‘Israel must stand fast and ignore the world’s nannies.’
Agreed. My worry is that the pressure on them will increase markedly. I think some weak as piss intervention by the UN, EU, USA will be elbowed into place.
If they do go in, I expect they’ll time it to coincide with a Muslim festival.
As for Gaza, it should be razed to the ground, no stone left standing. Salt the earth. Do a Scipio.
At some point something similar will be needed for the West Bank.
It’s awful to write this. I see a tiny country that wants to live in peace having been invaded 3 times in 75 years, constant terrorism and missile attacks. And now a massacre. Any concessions are regarded by Palestinians as weakness.
Waterworld gives me an idea on how to deal with the tunnels.. I hope the Gazans like water features.
Israel has to go in.
It has be be one of the most brutal and violent starts to a conflict ever seen.
We are talking no prisoners, move fast, use surprise with violence of action, hamas bodies should be a carpet on the ground.
Just saying that this evil must be met with overwhelming force
Not sure of the point of this, but given that it’s presently being reported that limited raids have already begun it would seem to be moot.
Its a small, crowded city of 2m people, mostly civilians. short of bombing everything to dust, they need a strategy to defeat the fighters without killing the rest. I predict they will “take” the parts where the Palistinians have evacuated and negotiate with ME countries to free the hostages.
End result – plenty of destroyed buildings && freed hostages to demonstrate Victory on TV in Israel and political face saving for the Pallies – at a great cost in destruction & deaths. At which point both Israel & Palestine resume their internal civil wars and everyone else loses interest.
Hamas has prepared for this. Many Israeli military will not come home.
is inscribed on headstones.
.
Another really difficult decision for Israeli military – when confronted by a terrorist holding a gun to a hostage, mercifully killing the hostage with a single shot leaves the terrorist exposed. Many will return home with unresolvable moral dilemmas for the rest of their life.
Since Hamas still has 200+ hostages, and trading 2 Americans bought them at least 2 days, I figured it would take them a while to get through selling off all the other hostages – even at a reduced “exchange rate”. 🙁
So I voted 7-14 days.
Not that this matters because the poll doesn’t work. It just says “Please wait..” and never shows anything.
I’ve got a horrible suspicion it will be never.
Keeping Israel endlessly mobilised and under threat from outside while mongs talk about hostages and big eyed Pallywood kids.
Sadly, the initiative, and opportunity has been squandered.
There are always a million reasons to not do something hard.
Even just creating a symbolic new line of control within Gaza territory would constitute some momentum. Currently it all looks like dithering.
The longer they wait, the worse morale gets (military and population wise), and execution becomes impossibly hard.
Who gives a rat’s? The mess will continue until someone with balls says ‘enough’.
The world in 2024. Without Trump. WW3 in 12 months. With Trump, a delay of perhaps 3 years.
I somewhat agree with the Colonel Berka above, but in a way it has already started.
Perhaps the immanent ground invasion was a ruse to expose Hamas and their supporters around the world. It certainly showed the Jihadi threat in almost every country in the West.
The answer is giant ferrets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kea7NUOQocI
The question should not be *when* to go in, but rather *whether* to go in, and there is no good answer to that. Politically, an invasion is a necessity, militarily, it will likely be very costly and achieve little …. unless they literally remove *all* its occupants the sore will just grow back. If they do, no only will it be very expensive in blood and treasure, it will unify the arab world against them forever, like never before.
At the very least, they need to occupy the Egyptian end to cut the supply tunnels.
The Hamas leaders, would have been well aware of the repercussions for Gaza, after their horrendous attacks on Israel.
The question then becomes, “why would they want to lead the IDF into Gaza?”
The drawing in of a technologically advanced army, into street fighting in the rubble, evens out the fight markedly, think Stalingrad. The most mechanised Army in the Wehrmacht, (that went through France in 6 weeks), was squandered among the ruins on the Volga.
The advent of the use of drones and the complete Air Supremacy of the IDF does alleviate the situation somewhat for Israel, however, the Hamas fighters can move through many ruined buildings/tunnels, without detection from above.
This will be a costly battle for both sides.
What if Hamas let off a couple of “dirty” bombs whilst the IDF are advancing?
I’m not saying I want this outcome, but I struggle to understand why Hamas wanted the IDF to attack.
On a larger perspective, the NeoCons are rapidly losing control of the situation.
The buildup of US/UK forces in Cypress is a very disturbing scenario.
The President of the US Military Industrial Complex, (Lloyd Austin III, otherwise known as the Secretary of Defence), has issued warnings for other nations to, ….., “stay away”.
Russia has responded, by targeting the US Carrier Groups in the Mediterranean, with missiles AND moving Air Assets within striking distance.
China has deployed a naval Force to the Mediterranean.
Any strike on Iran will see the immediate blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in massive spikes in oil prices.
Given the parlous state of every EU country’s finances, (not to mention Australia’s), this will tip all those that are not already in recession, over the cliff.
Regrettably, there are no dissenting voices among the lapdog curs in charge of the EU nations, so psychopaths like Nuland, Blinken, Bolton, Sullivan et al, will repeat the disasters of Iran, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and Ukraine, because, ……, “they are the smartest guys in the room”. (Taiwan, take a number, you are next!)
Problem is, this time Russia and China are in the region and ready to go.
IF nuclear exchanges are avoided, we will be very lucky.
Can the Israeli economy handle 300k otherwise-employed reservists
being fed into a potential meat grinder?
Disinformation central here.
The President of the US Military Industrial Complex, (Lloyd Austin III, otherwise known as the Secretary of Defence)
The number of people who have used this phrase outside of Russian propaganda is very small.
No, they have not and they would not. Actively targeting a foreign power is an act of war. Words have meanings. US naval aviators have repeatedly flogged Russian-made airpower since the 1970s. Russia lost its best pilots in an embarrassing failure to conquer Ukraine.
West Asia is not necessarily the Levant. China is operating ships around the Arabian peninsula.
What about China’s economy? Where do you think their merchandise exports go to? Or where do their resources come from? Or what their banks are like?
It is hilarious that you forget Iraq and think Ukraine was a success for Russia: Russia is losing trench warfare to a country with 1/4 of it’s own population. The idea that there is no dissent in the EU or US is an imagining only a KGB goon stuck in Breznehev era Russia could imagine.
Ultimately, the most important victory will be in the information space. Unfortunately, Israel is not off to a good start. The fact that so many here, eager for Israel to triumph militarily, still signal admiration for the enemies of civilisation by utilising their chosen name ‘courage’ (which is the meaning of h@m@s in Arabic) is indicative of the enormity of the challenge. You can shake your head at my pedantry, but you’re doing harm to the cause you claim to support by your active participation in their propaganda.
Not so, Master Muddy.
If I call you the world’s greatest treasurer, and you are Wayne Swan, that does not betoken my respect or admiration. I may call you that but it does not mean what I think in silence.
Probably not but not fighting back effectively has its own costs, that said; the US suffered a small and temporary downturn in the early third of 2007 that preceded (and may have precipitated) the GFC. Now that was due mainly to finances and debt but their labour productivity dropped; consider the amount of skilled labour committed to the Iraq and Iran war but also those killed or made invalid.
Revoted. Had to turn off the VPN though, VPNs are apparently naughty.
That one is dicey. If you trap them, you own them. While that helps meet your goal of destroying Hamas, it also nets you a million+ ‘civilians’ who you are now responsible for.
A million+ pissed off ‘civilians’ whom you now have to feed, water, quarter, protect and provide medical, sanitary, etc. services to..
No thanks.
Maybe an idea is to evacuate civilians from the northern half of Gaza, pinch it off and then lay siege to those left inside.
Presumably Hamas’s defensive/offensive tunnel infrastructure is concentrated on its Israeli borders, whilst the Egyptian side is mostly smuggling.
Regarding the economics of fighting an enlarged war, it would be fairly negative on the supply chains and inputs costs but perhaps a way of resolving the excess liquidity injected by central banks in last few years and maybe reset of current debts. Marx got many things wrong but he did observe that War is a regular process for capitalism to make big resets when the system gets stuck.
Just a thought on a puzzle as to why so many powers seem to be lining up for what is not a strategic or military challenge, as terrible as it may be of the people in the countries involved.
Alamak
Like 100% of everything else, Marx got that wrong. War is terrible for both human suffering and living standards.
Real per cap income in the US was lower in 1946 than in 1939. There’s no reset because if war didn’t exist humanity would have much higher living standards.
JC> For sure War is a terrible thing on human level. But Marx did raise some interesting points on how it seems to enable Capitalism to adapt and survive as a system when it gets “stuck” with too much debt or too many unused resources.
I don’t think an accurate analysis of any major war (where there is no paucity of data) shows this to be true.
My thoughts exactly. Wait until they come up for air and swat them.
Sort of a real life Hunt the Wumpus.
I’m not sure in which dream you imagined that Russia was involved in the Iraq war(s) Dot, but:
“Russia is losing trench warfare to a country with 1/4 of it’s own population”
is an indication that you need a Bex and a lie down.
Reality is sometimes harsh and not always to one’s liking, but I would suggest that you immerse yourself in it and give it a try.
St Volodymyr the Pure has issued evacuation orders for children in 13 oblasts.
That is a great indication, of just how successful, the mighty Spring/Summer/Autumn/Winter offensive by the Nazi’s, ……, sorry, I mean the very non-Nazi Ukrainians, has been.
Due to the world’s attention being directed elsewhere, we can expect those lowlife’s in Kiev to conduct a major “false flag” incident to get the world’s attention and more importantly money, back into Ukraine.
Perhaps the Zaphorozhye Nuclear Power Plant is a candidate.
Well genius, you brought up American failures. Sobriety is a struggle, good luck mate.
They are.
At best (for Russia), they can’t beat such a pissant country that “doesn’t have a right to exist”. How come Ukraine has breached the right bank of the Dnipro? How come they’ve advanced through many lines in other areas of the southern front? the coping here is monumental. “It was a feint” echoes on.
We have seen 20 months of pro-Russian propaganda here claiming Ukraine was on the verge of breaking, there would be a pincer, Bakhmut meant the end of the Ukrainian army etc. It’s all been tragic nonsense.
The heroes of Bakhmut are now a proscribed terrorist organisation; Putin met with Hamas back in March this year and hasn’t condemned their barbarity. How’s that for Nazis? No one here has ever defended Banderites. The “deNazification” crap is a sick joke. Are you going to tell me that Rusich and the Russian Imperialist Movement don’t exist? Or that they don’t fight alongside or as part of the Russian army?
Okay, petrol sniffer.
In the real world, Putin actually did commit a major false flag terrorist act to cement his power.
https://www.amazon.com/Blowing-Up-Russia-Secret-Terror/dp/1594032017
Blowing Up Russia: The Secret Plot to Bring Back KGB Terror Hardcover – April 2, 2007
by Alexander Litvinenko (Author), Yuri Felshtinsky (Author)
Blowing Up Russia contains the allegations of ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko against his former spymasters in Moscow which led to his being murdered in London in November 2006. In the book he and historian Yuri Felshtinsky detail how since 1999 the Russian secret service has been hatching a plot to return to the terror that was the hallmark of the KGB. Vividly written and based on Litvinenko’s 20 years of insider knowledge of Russian spy campaigns, Blowing Up Russia describes how the successor of the KGB fabricated terrorist attacks and launched a war. Writing about Litvinenko, the surviving co-author recounts how the banning of the book in Russia led to three earlier deaths.
Put the petrol down son before you start giving lectures.
Rachel Corrie reference?