They will try, it might take the Supremes to sort it.UNLESS it is so big, it cannot be rigged.

The problem isn’t size, it’s the distribution of cheating and the time it takes to demonstrate that cheating materially affected the outcome.

A few big cheats: easier to identify cause and effect from a legal perspective.

When you have a wide open and highly variable electoral system, yielding hundreds of cheats – from State legislators, down to county and booth officials – the task of establishing the facts (particularly in the face of legal resistance and obfuscation) and stitching the narrative together to a ‘Supreme Court Overturns a Result for the First Time’ legal standard is pretty much impossible in any timely way.

This is from Forbes Magazine and covers the impact of the 2000 Presidential election Bush vs Gore, when results were delayed.
It makes for interesting reading and how the markets were impacted.

Wall Street experts have been analyzing Election Day, November 7, 2000, when a slew of television networks called the state of Florida–which accounted for enough electoral votes to effectively decide the election–for then-Vice President Al Gore, a decision that unraveled in the following hours as votes counted increasingly showed the winner to be then-governor of Texas, George W. Bush. 

A weeks-long vote recount hinged on technicalities created a swath of uncertainty and tanked stocks as much as 8.5% before the Supreme Court named Bush the victor on December 12–a full five weeks after Election Day, notes Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Andrew Slimmon.

The VIX, however, which tracks volatility expectations, peaked in November before the election actually took place, and it didn’t peak again until weeks later as a result of the ongoing dot-com crash–long after the Supreme Court announced Bush the winner.

The stock-market uncertainty tied to election results ultimately only lasted about three weeks; by December 4, the S&P 500 had returned to pre-election levels, and some sectors, such as defense and consumer staples, even saw a boost from the prospects of a Bush victory despite the broader rout.

That three-week timeline is roughly in line with analyst estimates regarding the possibility of a similarly contested election outcome this time around; Marc Chaikin of Philadelphia-based quant investment firm Chaikin Analytics, for example, foresees a volatile downward market for one to two weeks in the event of such post-election angst.

Note this was written prior to the 2020 election but thought it might be a useful reference.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/04/the-2000-election-wasnt-decided-until-december-after-a-recountheres-what-happened-to-the-stock-market/

Secret Service Seals Up White House Campus with riot fences today as election nears (9:29)

She’s not perfect but unlike Donald Trump, there is nothing to fear about Kamala Harris
SMH – November 4, 2024 — 5.45pm

https://x.com/chant_ian/status/1853304241827504222

canbra femocrat

The US Presidential election.

Best assessment I have come across: it’s all down to the extent of fraud in 3 States. Also who shows up and how they vote.

The more honest polls can still tell you something useful about the basic playing field.

The top 5 previously most accurate polls – Atlas, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, The Hill/Harris, Insider Advantage – and ran quick averages. Here’s that baseline playing field.

Nationally, Trump leads Harris by 0.7%.

Let’s see what our cleaned-up swing state averages look like.

Arizona Trump +3.3

North Carolina Trump +3

Georgia Trump +2.5

Nevada Trump +2

Pennsylvania Trump +1.5

Wisconsin Trump +1.3

Michigan Trump +0.8

Quickie analysis: In an honest election (yeah right), Trump wins at these poll numbers, no extra “shy Trump” votes needed. In a Big Cheat election, if Harris can take the bottom three states PA WI and MI (and not lose any marginal Blue states like New Hampshire or Virginia) she wins

At 2020 level swing-state cheat margins (4-5% is my 2020 Cheat estimate) the 2016 Shy Trump number of 3-4% would make it a really close-run thing, maybe 60:40 odds of a Trump win. If Shy Trump is actually bigger this year – say, 4-5% – Trump almost certainly wins, by either knocking off PA or WI, or by knocking off one or more marginal Blue states, or both.

Boroondara most of our sitting councillors topped out,replaced by so called independents apparently funded by Holmes A Court.I predict bankruptcy within 2 years.

Sheridan sprays “foul mouthed” and “liar” at Trump every time his name comes up. Pavlov’s dog stuff.

He never gives us examples.

I certainly don’t need some mediocre deadshit Sydney journalist to explain American politics to me.

Daniel Schmachtenberger – Why We’re Creating a Future That Nobody Wants https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzCVzyTktR0 [10:18]
Starts off outlining game theory and then concentrates on the ramifications of the Prisoners’ Dilemma manifesting itself in economics, environmentalism, and war.

‘Living knowledge systems’: Marcia Langton says Indigenous know-how is not in the past
HELEN TRINCA

Aboriginal academic and commentator Marcia Langton says Australians should use Indigenous knowledge to address contemporary problems ranging from managing bushfires and water resources to dealing with mental health.

As co-editor of a new book covering the application of know-how developed over 65,000 years to modern Australia, she argues that far from being stuck in a time warp, “Indigenous knowledge isn’t in the past; these are living knowledge systems”.

Professor Langton, who is an anthropologist and geographer, says archaeologists studying pre-contact Australia also had a lot to learn from the “intangible” knowledge now being collected and analysed by researchers.

“A lot of archaeology is speculation, it’s speculative theory based on a body of evidence, such as stones and bones and so on, where they’re located, how far down they were,” Professor Langton said. “They (archaeologists) can date them, but they can only glean so much from this material. We are concerned with how people transmit their knowledge, how they understand their own knowledge, and how they interpret it. So it’s a different class of understanding.”

The book – Indigenous Knowledge: Australian Perspectives (Melbourne University Publishing) to be released on Tuesday – outlines a collaborative approach to Indigenous knowledge research. Langton, chair of ­Australian ­Indigenous Studies at the University of Melbourne, and coeditors Aaron Corn, inaugural director of the university’s Indigenous Knowledge Institute; and Samuel Curkpatrick, a research associate at the institute, argue the research model in Australia is unique in the global context.

They say knowledge which has survived for scores of millennia can be used across medicine, health and wellbeing, social and economic development, environmental management, agriculture and horticulture, history, law and the creative arts.

Professor Langton said that, for example, a great deal was now known about the pattern of bushfires after colonisation.

“We now have a situation where we understand the nature of the wildfires,” she said.

“This has all been mapped. So where you have a history of ­Aboriginal land practices being removed from the country by ­removing populations, then you have more wildfires.

“We now have very precise scientific knowledge about this. Some of it is esoteric, if you like, but a lot of the knowledge is very straightforward.”

The royal commission on the “Black Summer” fires of 2019-2020 had recommended scientists work with Indigenous knowledge holders to learn how to apply traditional burning in a bid to limit wildfires.

Aboriginal narratives about the inundation of Australia’s coastlines 10,000 to 20,000 years ago had been matched with ­actual evidence of inundation and this showed the relevance of information that had been coded in Indigenous language.

“It’s very clear from the evidence that for thousands of years, Aboriginal people managed fire with fire, and in many parts of Australia, those traditions continue, and there’s a lot of science around it,” she said.

The burning techniques were practical but they relied on “an encyclopaedic knowledge” about issues such as wind patterns and vegetation.

Dr Corn said Indigenous knowledge had guided people’s lives pre-contact but had continued to coexist and develop alongside modernity and globalisation.

“Those ways of living and the knowledge that underpins them didn’t just magically disappear,” he said.

“They still exist today, and they still inform people’s lives, and they still inform ways of knowing about the world that often in universities we can actually overlook.

“Two summers ago, because of the concern about bush fires claiming so many millionaires’ mansions in the northern suburbs of Sydney, there was this amazing call for traditional burning practitioners to come in and rescue everybody’s homes.”

He’s optimistic that non-­Indigenous Australians will embrace Indigenous knowledge, even though it is sometime hard to explain the concepts in English.

“The terms in English are imperfect,” Dr Corn said.

“But that happens with translations from any language. It is a struggle, and the onus is on us to work with people who are fluent in their own languages and who think deeply about where ideas and meaning come from.

“We have to accept too that the evidence base for this kind of work will include things like oral history and way that knowledge is encoded in language. A lot of our colleagues working at the science end of the ­spectrum of research, struggle with that.”

Professor Corn said work in the Northern Territory and South Australia where people were drawing on the knowledge of traditional healers and bush medicine in the health system was a compelling argument for the research.

“You can’t have a public health program anywhere that’s successful if you’re not actually engaged with the people who that’s meant to benefit,” he said.

“Think about really fraught areas like mental health – not everything is going to work for everybody. And so (there’s value in) a multitude of approaches rather than narrowing everything to a top down, centralised system.”

Oz. if you have a sub go and make some thoughtful comments.

One more day for a late surprise not to happen. Mind you, any big event may be too late to swing the result either way, given the rise in early voting.

Down memory lane, thanks to governments fear of its citizens, this sort of thing is just a dream now.

“Incredible how media narrative can create or attempt to create a reality.

Almost all the national polls just pulled a near universal 4-point swing to Donald Trump from their prior polls, not dissimilar to 2016, and they have everyone talking about late momentum to Harris.”
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1853437434152837350?t=FL2to6Xes9Eg2aymA8LWgA&s=19

Team Joy
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1853350360057839727?t=5MfXx-uFIC0tV7_dNekgYQ&s=19

Foxbody on fluoride tablets, a ride down memory lane there. Remember mum doing same in the 1970’s in Brisbane.

Funny our dodgy mayor up here wants to remove fluoride from the water. Which is weird Townsville was one of the few Qld cities that fluorinated water even when I moved here in the 1990’s.

Iirc FTB mentioned that RKJ was a herion addict for 14 years, he’s a wacky guy, wackier even than Trump.
I’d prefer he had little influence over policy in a Trump presidency.
JDV is VP anyhow.