US Presidential Election 2024 Thread


The latest election polls from RCP here.

The latest from the betting markets, Kalshi and Polymarket.


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caveman
caveman
November 5, 2024 4:05 pm

First Trump

Pogria
Pogria
November 5, 2024 4:08 pm

First Trump, then Pogria!!!

Cassie of Sydney
November 5, 2024 4:09 pm

I want Trump to win but I can make no predictions.

calli
calli
November 5, 2024 4:19 pm

Resist pet roasting, squirrel euthanising, baby eating Lizard People Overlords!

Vote Trump/Vance!

Rosie
Rosie
November 5, 2024 4:19 pm

Amish coming out for Trump.
Apparently some dem making life difficult for an organic farmer is the reason.
Appears to be this case
https://www.newsweek.com/amish-farmer-turned-republican-hero-becomes-flash-point-culture-war-1872374
https://x.com/DefiantLs/status/1853442574876377392?t=KQ6rFax4wwvLiJkkDwt5Nw&s=19

Last edited 2 hours ago by Rosie
Not Uh oh
Not Uh oh
November 5, 2024 4:22 pm

289 to trump for me please T.E.

Lysander
Lysander
November 5, 2024 4:22 pm

I’m not sure I’ve seen a time with the polls all over the place and no alignment with betting markets…

Lysander
Lysander
November 5, 2024 4:23 pm

In fact, one only has to recall the undisputed “red wave” that was coming in 2022 according to all polls and markets and…

it never came…

billie
billie
November 5, 2024 4:27 pm

Either way, there will be a very p*ssed off losing mob.

Will the swamp try to disqualify Trump if he wins?

Will anyone believe Harris could possibly win?

The announcement is on Jan 5th 2025 so plenty of time for action, if that’s the plan.

So what happens if Harris wins, and then say, gets assasinated? Prior to inauguration?

Winston Smith
Winston Smith
November 5, 2024 4:30 pm

Revenge Me!

GblEA0gWYAAJSws
cohenite
November 5, 2024 4:51 pm

Predictions: Substantial Trump Win Likely With “Psychiatric Break on the Left, Particularly Among Younger Women”

I really think women without boundaries go nuts. Right now more mothers than dads kill their kids. Something is going wrong. Let’s hope the orange God can bring things back.

Top Ender
Top Ender
November 5, 2024 4:55 pm

Latest predictions:

 
Cat POTUS poll

Trump to win

526 – caveman
484 – Bar Beach Swimmer
480 – Pogria
407 – John
P – 367
357 – AnotherRanga
347 – Vicki
330 – Perfidious Albino
327 – Wally Dalí
325 – Long Time Lurker
323 – Little Gidding
321 – Helen
320 – Cohenite
319 – Megan
318 – eb
317 – mizaris
313 – Chris
312 – Zippster, thefrollickingmole
310 – Beertruk
308 – Harlequin Decline, hzhousewife
307 – chrisl
306 – Digger
305 – Indolent, Old School Conservative
304 – Bill P
303 – Farmer Gez, Tom
302 – Makka
301 – zimlurog
300 – Tekweni, Brislurker
299 – Wivenhoe
298 – 132andBush
296 – mem
295 – Barking Toad
294 – Sancho Panzer
293 – Titus Groates
292 – Nelson_Kidd-Players
291 – Its Remarkable, Salvatore – Iron Publican
290 – Top Ender*
289 – Not Uh oh
288 – Mak Siccar
287 – Carpe Jugulum
286 – Rosie
285 – Knuckle Dragger
283 – Lizzie
282 – Steve of Kenmore, Iron Cove
281– Roger
280 – calli
279 – Bruce in WA, Siltstone
278 – Winston Smith, Howie
275 – pete m
273 – Petros
272 – Delta A
271 – Vagabond, Colonel Crispin Berka
*not in comp. so will move progressively right if others want this spot

Harris to win

538 – Lysander
334 – Zafiro
320 – JC
315 – alwaysright
300 – Lawgi Dawes-Hall
298 – Monty
285 – Rafiki
280 – Barry
276 – Dr Faustus
273 – Gilas
272 – Davey Boy

wivenhoe
wivenhoe
November 5, 2024 5:01 pm

Yo. Dover. if you need a donation to buy extra tissues for Monty, let me know

AnotherRanga
AnotherRanga
November 5, 2024 5:03 pm

My heart says Trump. My head says Trump. The “realist” part of me says The Kamal. 🙁

Winston Smith
Winston Smith
November 5, 2024 5:04 pm

Rosie November 5, 2024 4:19 pm

America will not tolerate an authoritarian government, and that’s exactly what the Biden/Harris Thogocracy has become.
The question is just how far will the pendulum swing back to enterprise and citizen accountability?

Last edited 1 hour ago by Winston Smith
JC
JC
November 5, 2024 5:11 pm

Can I just say this. The most important thing that needs to be done, along with closing the border is at the very least getting the budget to balance. The 10 year bond yield at 4.3% when in mid Sept, it was at 3.65%. If Trump wins, he has to cut spending. The deficit is currently running at 6.5% of GDP while outstanding debt is ~ US$35 trillion. If Trump wins he has to focus on this asap or things could really unravel if the bond market crashes.

Digger
Digger
November 5, 2024 5:18 pm

No matter which way it goes, Biden (or Harris) still enjoys the full executive power of the presidency until inauguration day. It is possible (possibly) if she loses, for Biden to retire immediately (on Wednesday), instantly making her the first female president. She could then issue her first executive order disqualifying Trump from the presidency because he is a convicted felon and of course using the actions of January 6. They have the barriers in place around her residence and the White House so they are preparing for something…. Supreme Court action could be severely hamstrung by paid for and pre-organised riots at the Justices homes and the Supreme Court. There was no action last time they did it so they have tested the water and know they are safe.

GreyRanga
GreyRanga
November 5, 2024 5:24 pm

311 please TE.

JC
JC
November 5, 2024 5:31 pm

ELON MUSK ON REDUCTION OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING: “The idea of DOGE is pretty simple. We have a suffocating massive bureaucracy and government spending is bankrupting the country. Our interest payments on national debt now exceed our national defense budget. The defense budget is a trillion dollars a year. We’re on a path to bankruptcy. We have to cut government spending or we’re going to go bankrupt just like a person would. I asked the AI how many government agencies there are and they don’t even know. Somewhere around 450 at the Federal level. That’s almost twice as many agencies as years that America has existed. This is insane. There’s not even one person who can name every agency at the Federal level. Eventually it will get to the point where everything is illegal and nothing can get done. We can curtail the agencies to be much smaller and stick to just what congress authorizes rather than bloat. Something is wrong if we can build a SpaceX rocket faster than they can approve paperwork. In the past what has served as a cleansing function for regulation is war. we haven’t had war, we’ve had prosperity. We need a way to cleanse regulation without war. You don’t want zero referees in a game, but you don’t want more referees than players.

Colonel Crispin Berka
Colonel Crispin Berka
November 5, 2024 5:44 pm

dover, could you update this story with links to

and

m0nty
m0nty
November 5, 2024 6:06 pm

The most important thing that needs to be done, along with closing the border is at the very least getting the budget to balance.

Single-issue budget deficit voters would all vote for Harris, as it is only Democrats who have lowered the deficit over the last four decades. Every Republican president has blown the deficit out, very much including Trump.

Frank
Frank
November 5, 2024 6:08 pm

In anticipation of a possible Orange Reich one wonders where Waleed Ali might be hiding during this election, given his narrow miss and exfiltration under fire in 2016.

132andBush
132andBush
November 5, 2024 6:08 pm

Going to be a wild 24hrs.

Trump to get 330-359 is paying $13.

I’ve had a flutter. (Based on comrade montgomery’s predictions.

Warwick
Warwick
November 5, 2024 6:08 pm

I think Kamala Harris deserves to win. She was a very well regarded AG of California. Ran for President in 2020. Dropped out of the race when she didn’t poll better than 2% – even in her home state of California. Resurrected as VP by Biden, she has has an exemplary 4 years. Put in the bin and told to be quiet by Biden after 2 years as VP. 92% of her staff left her office. She didn’t realise that Biden was infirm until his poor debate performance – she seriously had absolutely no idea! Bravely stepped in to replace Biden. So she is honest and loyal and capable! What a gal. Never won a primary and off to be the President. Super candidate. Amazing!

JC
JC
November 5, 2024 6:13 pm

Watch the attempt at the cheat.

BREAKING: Maricopa County is claiming they’re extremely “backed up in processing early mail-in ballots.” This is why they’re warning up to 13 days for final results!https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f926-200d-2640-fe0f.svg Once again, this county acting like they’ve never held elections before! Unreal. Hold the line, Arizona!

13 days is 13 days to try to pull the cheat. Maricopa is 60% of the AZ electorate.

Top Ender
Top Ender
November 5, 2024 6:13 pm

Voting was officially underway on Election Day as six registered voters in the town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire cast their ballots just after midnight. 

The results in the small town were literally too close to call, as the half dozen voters were split three-to-three between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. 

It’s actually a sharp swing from 2020, when Joe Biden swept all five people who voted against Trump. 

Daily Mail

calli
calli
November 5, 2024 6:29 pm

We have our own Titiana McGrath!

Take a bow, Warwick! 😀

Lysander
Lysander
November 5, 2024 6:37 pm

Muntard quoting “politifact” is a bit like Snowcone quoting Sarah Ferguson as an authority; except we know with Monty who takes it up the…

…..well, Muntard, I prefer to use the official US Treasury site:

National Deficit | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

The five highest (pre-Covid) deficits were in 2008, 2009, 2010 2011, 2012. Sure, it came down a bit after that but not much. I can’t quite recall who was in power then lol!!!

The highest deficits ever on record in a post a Covid-overspend, were the last three years (notwithstanding highest US Govt revenue ever for the same three years).

Federal debts only slowed in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019:

Understanding the National Debt | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

Federal debts blew upward, exponentially from 2007 to 2014).

it’s impossible to talk to idiots like you and Snowcone and Friends cos everyone paints Trump’s 2020 Covid spend in their stats to make him seem economically illiterate. Like Chalmers talking about Scomo’s Covid debt when Chalmers and Albo were calling for billions more to be spent for longer.

JC, you can have sloppy seconds on this… 😛

Arky
November 5, 2024 6:54 pm

Squirrel murderers v freedom lovers.
You would have to be in a pretty dark place to prefer the death cult.

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