Open Thread – Weekend 18 Dec 2021


The Ambassadors, Hans Holbein the Younger, 1533

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H B Bear
H B Bear
December 20, 2021 2:50 am

I can see a return of the codpiece as a must have fashion item

For some of us it never went away. Nor the gourd.

H B Bear
H B Bear
December 20, 2021 2:52 am

And top o’ the page. Thank you linesmen. Thank you ballboys.

H B Bear
H B Bear
December 20, 2021 2:55 am

Well this is somewhat embarrassing.

Mak Siccar
Mak Siccar
December 20, 2021 2:55 am

Looky looky. There is a new open thread.

H B Bear
H B Bear
December 20, 2021 2:56 am

Stumps.

Baba
Baba
December 20, 2021 9:11 am
Kneel
Kneel
December 20, 2021 10:23 am

“But this is where common sense and intuition gets us – and the public – into trouble.”

Yep – as I explained on the old Cat several times, if the general prevalence is 1 per 10,000 in the general population, even a 99% accurate test can mean a positive test is only a 1% chance of actually being infected (run the numbers yourself with a synthetic “perfect sample”).

If you actually walk through this slowly, most people can grasp it, but are loathe to really believe it, or use it to ask questions about what it means for covid numbers we saw early on – even nurses and doctors will allow their “common sense” to over-rule their reasoning facilities in this regard.

Example with different numbers is here (less than 5 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_c3xZvHto3k

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  1. Emirates flights worldwide seriously disrupted due to flooding in Dubai. An airline hub is a great idea until it isn’t.

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