No likely comeback for Libs in teal seats

Six so-called teals (=Climate 200) candidates defeated sitting Liberals. Here are the first-preference numbers to date with around 80 percent plus or minus of votes counted.

Curtin (WA)

Celia Hammond (Lib) 42.4%

Kate Chaney (teal) 30.0%

Labor / Greens 22.1%

Goldstein (Vic)

Tim Wilson (Lib) 41%

Zoe Daniel (teal) 35.3%

Labor / Greens 17.7%

Kooyong (Vic)

Josh Frydenberg (Lib) 42.9%

Monique Ryan (teal) 41.5%

Labor / Greens 12.2%

Mackellar (NSW)

Jason Falinski (Lib) 41.9%

Sophie Scamps (teal) 38.8%

Labor / Greens 13.4%

N. Sydney (NSW)

Trent Zimmerman (Lib) 38.1%

Kylea Tink (teal) 25.9%

Labor / Greens 29.5%

Wentworth (NSW)

Dave Sharma (Lib) 41.1%

Allegra Spender (teal) 36.3%

Labor / Greens 18.2%

Two things to note. First, in each case the Libs scored more first-preference votes than their teal opponents. That’s good I suppose. But, second, the combined votes of the teals, Labor and the Greens well overwhelmed the Lib vote in each case. All told, there seems little hope that the Libs can come back; certainly, while climate change hysteria holds sway.

A taste of the future: teal-like Zali Steggall in Tony Abbott’s old seat of Warringah improved her position. From 43.5% of first preferences in 2019 to 45.2% this time around. The Lib vote declined from 39% to 34%.

It makes it so much harder for the Coalition to win back government when seven blue-ribbon Liberal seats are gone for the foreseeable future.  Well-heeled people (women in particular by all accounts) in swanky suburbs leading the country down the road to fewer jobs and energy poverty. Not to worry, they’ll be fine.

118 thoughts on “No likely comeback for Libs in teal seats”

  1. You forget that Helen Haines was the model for the Teals, her predecessor was sort of independent but Helen took the money and worked it well and turned a safe Liberal seat into a green one. Why does everyone not notice this. She was the role model.


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  2. Mea Culpa. A Cremorne friend assisted an Independent (who lives in the Blue Mountain) in the campaign for North Sydney. I was under the mistaken belief that this was the Independent who won the seat.

    This is incorrect. The actual elected Indie, I now understand, lives in the electorate.


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  3. The real impact of Labor’s climate policy hasn’t begun to hit what’s left of Australia’s wealth producing sector yet.

    When it does the Teal’s 7 seats will be immaterial.


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  4. Libs are low 40% in each so they need to carve off Teal/ALP at least 5-7% to win in 2025. Will be hard but not impossible if energy costs double, housing affordability goes further south, and so on. Further, in states like VIC, Qld, and WA, they are being hamstrung by the disastrous State Lib crew as well. They need a renewed policy that harkens back to Menzies but also addresses current circumstances, they need to shore up the base that left them for minor parties,and they need to revitalize the party at the state level and cull those that treat the admin as their personal fiefdoms.


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  5. No dover0beach.

    There needs to be a ‘class action’ to dissolve the political party that calls itself Liberal Party of Australia.

    A complete pack of bullshit artists at State and Federal levels that have falsely traded on the name since Fraser.


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  6. “It makes it so much harder for the Coalition to win back government when seven blue-ribbon Liberal seats are gone for the foreseeable future. “

    I disagree Peter.

    Firstly, let me start with Wentworth, where I live. I do have an insight into just how smug, selfish and hypocritical most of my fellow Wentworthians are (not all though, and not me) so that when the taxes start to rise and when the death duties are introduced, I’m pretty sure that more than one of those Wentworthians who joined up to the cult of Princess Allegra and who voted for her will hop, skip and jump back to the Liberals. I also have a theory (it’s just my theory) that many men here in Wentworth voted for Princess Allegra because their wives were caught up in the cult.

    Secondly, as many of us have acknowledged, the Liberal Party must kiss these seats goodbye. They can never rely on these seats again to win government. There are other many seats in the outlying suburbs to be won. Last Saturday the Liberals came close to winning Werriwa, a seat once held by Gough Whitlam and later Mark Latham. The Liberal MP for Lindsay, once a bell-weather marginal, is now safely Liberal and the member increased her margin last Saturday. Also, if Dai Le can win Fowler, the Liberals, one day, can also win Fowler. The reason why they lost Reid was because they had a dud member, the execrable Fiona Martin. Bennelong has a large Chinese vote and Labor put up a popular local former mayor plus the member for Bennelong retired, it was always going to be hard to keep the seat when the momentum is going against you. Bennelong WILL be won again by the Liberals, as will Reid. The more I think about the result, the more I think that this is a much needed result for the Liberals to refresh themselves and by this I mean they must draw on their rich Menzian tradition, a tradition that’s been trashed lately, particularly since September 2015. Do I blame Morrison? Yes. I think he and others got sucked into the whole “moderate” vortex, which rendered him impotent. He wanted to be liked, he remained silent about free speech, about religious freedom (his bill was left to the eleventh hour) but the worst, the worst, was his setting up of the National Cabinet and his ongoing silence when Australians were being bashed and bludgeoned by police during lockdowns. It was shameful. Morrison’s government financed all of this. He sold his soul, thinking it would make him popular. No, no, no.

    Finally, I don’t see doom and gloom after last Saturday’s loss. I’m glad that the moderates are finally gonski. It was Sharma, Zimmerman, Falinsky, Allen, Martin and so on who pushed Morrison re. net zero emissions, thinking of course that it would save their tuchas. Good riddance to the lot of them, the only two moderates I think that are a loss are Tim Wilson and Josh. Josh was an excellent local member, and whilst I’ve heard that Wilson was not a crash hot local member, he did some good work in parliament around superannuation and here’s my prediction, Zoo Daniel is not going to serve the people of Goldstein very well just like Ryan, Cheney, Princess Allegra and the others will not serve their electorates particularly well because they crave attention, they just love being fawned over, and I suspect that over the coming three years people are going to be disappointed.

    Scott Morrison once said, unforgivably, that free speech never created on job.

    Perhaps more free speech from Mr Morrison might have saved his job.


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  7. With Albo governing in his own right, the influence of the teals in getting benefits for their electorate will be zero. Even in opposition a local member in one of the two major parties can have influence. Not so the teals.

    Likewise, I can’t think of a more soul destroying position to be in than the teals:
    – No influence over policy
    – Even voting as a bloc they cannot change anything.
    – having to go to Canberra regularly for the next 3 years.

    Betting they mostly won’t stand again. Betting they won’t improve things for their electorate either, so, along with the novelty wearing off, they wouldn’t get the numbers again.


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  8. I don’t get how our ‘elites’ think they will be anyone in the New World Order. The world can’t be filled with people with no useful skills.

    If the Teal ladies have no ability to produce anything to create wealth and they destroy what does, they will become useless. I suppose they may have some marketable skills. Probably the same ones that enabled them to become Doctors wives. Golf balls and garden hoses and dunny doors in cyclones come to mind.

    The comrades of the collective should be pleased with that I guess.


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  9. What is stunning is the lack of scientific facts bought up on climate change to expose what this is all about – Poor Christ Syndrome.
    One fact I would like to know is the basic mathematical flaw in the modelling.
    Our collective huffing and puffing only contributes 3% to the atmosphere, modelling shows temp according to the modelling would increase temp between 1c to 1.5c – the graph shows actual temperature below this temp increase.
    Then there is absorption theory, thermal dynamics theory.
    Actual physical samples have north of arkarula ( north of flinders ranges) earth samples with co2 levels a lot higher than the 450 parts per million, when this land was covered by a sheath of ice 20metres thick.
    Bruce of Newcastle bough up that gem that Venus which has an atmosphere of 97.5% of co 2, where the atmosphere has the same air pressure as earth the temp is 59c. No matter who and how smart people are, they cannot understand that co2 has no effect on temp – Venus is approx 48 million closer to the sun than earth – people can’t understand this.
    Then there is Michael Mann who did appear in Court twice to explain what his hockey stick graph.
    Earth had come out of a ice age at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
    Then have a look at its supporters , mainly women and white collar males who think they are smart. What do they say – even ifs a phoney we will redistribute wealth, on the coal miners oh they are those union Blakey types, or Brian cox – we dont care what you say we are coming for you.
    Amazingly physicist in their 50 who have been so called environmentalist are saying the emissions targets are ambitious and we should consider nuclear.
    In other words I have pulled the wool over your eyes, stopped progress but now my comfort is threatened and i now will do anything to preserve it.
    This is the teals I am wealthy, I am not that skilled or I do not want to do anything hard so I will do this.
    It’s the puberty blues gang.
    Listening to them being discriminated against because the are women was excruciating , its was infuriating and stupid. People believe it.


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  10. Teals are successful purely because their constituents are all sitting on $3million homes. They can afford climate change nonsense and the costs are well covered by the insane values of their economics.

    Simply put, they can afford it. So much for “sacrifice”.


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  11. A comment noted today was that “Australians were sick of politics. No. Australians are sick of politicians. Let’s have more commitment. Stuff the policy resets. Wat do you believe in.


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  12. Well at least we know in which suburbs to erect the windmills. Surely they will be happy to have them.

    South Head must have shitloads of wind. Ah, that sweet, sweet low frequency sound humming through the nights at those who demanded it. Sweet, sweet climate justice.


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  13. Cassie:
    The more I think about the result, the more I think that this is a much needed result for the Liberals to refresh themselves and by this I mean they must draw on their rich Menzian tradition, a tradition that’s been trashed lately, particularly since September 2015. Do I blame Morrison? Yes. I think he and others got sucked into the whole “moderate” vortex, which rendered him impotent. He wanted to be liked, he remained silent about free speech, about religious freedom (his bill was left to the eleventh hour) but the worst, the worst, was his setting up of the National Cabinet and his ongoing silence when Australians were being bashed and bludgeoned by police during lockdowns. It was shameful. Morrison’s government financed all of this. He sold his soul, thinking it would make him popular. No, no, no

    I couldn’t agree more, Cassie.

    Though, on Morrison, as I’ve written previously, he is a manager, not a leader. But apart from that, he’s not a Liberal or a Conservative. His default position is more authoritarian and fixer – didn’t Jenny Morrison say, according to Scomo, that the Morrison men were “fixers.” Yes, he fixed things, good and hard for the country.

    From mandates and closed borders and his disinterestedness in how the premiers treated citizens and their rights, and have continued to do so, to huge debt and deficit, Morrison showed that for him the philosophy of the Liberal Party was an optional extra.

    On nett zero, he was led down the garden path by those “moderate” Liberal members. He probably thought if he could save those seats, that would get him over the line. He forgot that there are many other seats in voter land than those lost “blue ribbon” seats. Good riddance to all those “moderates.”
    Until the Liberal Party, both at the Federal and State level, return to the Menzian ideal, they’re toast.

    Peter, I’m hopeful that Dutton will be the right man for the job. imho, he should’ve got the leadership after Turnbull. Now with those “moderates” gone, things should improve.


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  14. I also have a theory (it’s just my theory) that many men here in Wentworth voted for Princess Allegra because their wives were caught up in the cult.

    Men?


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  15. Louis Littsays:
    May 26, 2022 at 8:27 pm

    The problem is, as John Anderson pointed out on the ABC (I think it was Tuesday), when asked, most Australians think that the country is responsible for somewhere between 10%-20% of all global emissions. Even though the whole thing is a giant wealth-transfer with no benefit to be gained by reducing emissions for the country, or the planet, from that little fact, no wonder the general mood is “we’ve got to do more!”


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  16. I hate to make this a point but comeback is one word.

    Let us not give up hope.

    These Teals are flashes in the pan. Just have conversations every day that sow doubt, that cast doubt on the MSM, on what is generally considered to be general knowledge. Bear in mind that men are more open to reason.

    Sorry, ladies, but apart from the illustrious feminine souls that populate this blog, most modern womern are venal, vain and shallow. There I said it.


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  17. Petrossays:
    May 26, 2022 at 7:40 pm
    Well at least we know in which suburbs to erect the windmills. Surely they will be happy to have them.

    exactly.

    Many of these are beachside suburbs – perfect locations for wind farms.

    Approval and digging should start immediately. Anyone who blocks or complains is clearly a pro-coal shill.


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  18. Electricity prices are going up July 1, 2022.

    They will have to rise again every 6 months to cover the boondoggle let alone folks dropping out of their system.

    The stasi police forces will be busy cracking down on people burning wood and newspapers to keep warm and cook meals.


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  19. Have a prowl around the AEC’s Tally Room site and check some of the voting trends in various electorates and then filter down to individual booths.

    An interesting exercise that shows a starling and yawning chasm between the cities and larger towns and country Australia.


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  20. I can’t give up hope. I line in the North Sydney electorate and I can’t believe that in less than 7 years this has gone from one of the safest Liberal seats to lost forever. No, I credit one of the worst local members in history.
    Zimmerman was parachuted in by the Photios left against the wishes of the local branch. He vocally support gay marriage so he could get married. He called the gay community his constituency – not just by implication but in those exact words. Once he got his way and gay marriage was passed he was never heard from again – even on his other peeve of climate change.
    You can’t win an election by treating your electorate with contempt.
    Three years of inevitable policy disaster, skyrocketing electricity prices and stupid policies will taint Labor, Greens and Teals to the point that a well chosen and articulate Liberal candidate will romp it in – assuming there are just half decent policies to articulate.


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  21. The Beer whisperer says:
    May 26, 2022 at 8:57 pm
    Teals are successful purely because their constituents are all sitting on $3million homes.

    Exactly. Around where I walk most mornings there are $2M homes with an Audi and a Merc 4WD in the drive (to ferry the kids to private school), accompanied by a sign saying Vote for the Greens (no local teal candidate). I suspect they must think “net zero” is some sort of lifestyle choice whereby they might change to a Tesla (if the Government subsidy is high enough), and they wont incur any pain as a consequence, and wont care if the lower orders do.


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  22. Prediction: More than half the Teals elected will be “Oncers”.

    Curtin has an independent for the 2nd time in my 50 year lifetime. The other, Allan Rocher, was dudded by the Liberal Party in preselection and the Lieboral candidate was punished at the subsequent election.


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  23. I played junior footy with the real estate agent. He was a pretty useful half forward flank. I shudder to think how much money he makes now.


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  24. In Metropolitan areas:
    Labor 1st Preferences = 36.59%
    Green 1st Preference = 13.80%
    Total: 50.39%
    Total Labor/Green vote for the 6 Electorates listed: 111.1%
    Either Labor/Greens ran dead in those Seats, or Labor/Green are in big trouble.
    Bottom line:
    The Liberal Party and the Teals are pretty close together politically.
    There’s been a reset.
    Tony Abbott was a dud, Katherine Deves was a dud, copping meat in the can isn’t a liberal value, so that rules out Zimmerman and Tim Wilson, no one could nail Dave Sharma to any position for more than 5 minutes, he was an UberDud, and Josh was an angry little guy with a penchant for the cheap shot, it was a miracle that he was ever preselected.
    Falinski, not sure what happened there.


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  25. Someone says:
    Let’s go to First Past the Post.
    Here’s the problem there.
    1. Labor operatives track down a key Liberal demographic in a Marginal Seat
    2. Convince/pay expenses of a well known [but gullible] member of that Demographic to run as an Independent.
    Liberal vote is split, Labor wins the seat.


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  26. I am in Kooyong and although not a member or financial contributor of the Liberal Party I organised meetings in the community for Josh.
    And no Ed Case , who his one btw , Josh is not angry and a high EQ in fact .
    However as I said in Italian Class yesterday Monique haunted me , no matter where I looked, when I used phone or IPad there she was . The word for haunt in Italian is infestare so that is what I am organising now . Kooyongites who were infested / haunted by her are going to return the favour . We intend to haunt her with every issue that we can find and ask her for help . Then if she ignores us scream on 3AW etc.


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  27. Cassie, you’ve got more political insight than nearly everybody running the Liberal Party. However, if the snippets that the media is quoting from Mr. Dutton (emphasising that the Liberal Party is not a conservative Party), are correct, then I don’t hold out much hope that these so called Liberals will be back in government any time soon.Socialist Australia will always prefer a geniune Communist Party to a fake one.

    I’m much more pessimistic about Australia’s future. The Freedom Parties didn’t get much swing from the disenchantment with the Liberals. Australians want governments to solve all their self-inflicted problems. We’ve reached a point where people are blinded by an auction for more socialism. A point where people are blindly rushing to have their freedoms enslaved by government. An environment soon ripe for an abject, voluntary surrender to the Communist Party of China, a la Solomon Islands.


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  28. This situation is all due to the pathetic cowards and WEF enablers running the liberal party.

    It could have been a landslide win for a true centre-right party.

    What was required from this party was to:
    a) Aggressively attack the exaggerated climate nonsense, and demonstrated how embracing renewables (unreliables) would decimate the economy, jobs and quality of life in Australia, and do NOTHING to change the climate.
    b) Aggressively defend the lives and freedoms of Australian citizen by blocking/limiting the ability of nazi premiers to inflict crazy lockdowns; and protect citizens from corporate fascists that demanded their employees got vaxxed or get sacked; and made treatments for covid (e.g. ivermectin) freely available its citizens as an alternative to vaxes.

    Instead, this pathetic party, led by a fool, did nothing. And now we will face the consequences….


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  29. I fear John’s pessimism is justified. The Australian electorate has fundamentally changed. 18 to 30 year old have been brainwashed in schools and tertiary bodies; we now have imported voting herds formed along ethnic lines; and so on. The LDP may change to the Liberty and Democracy party (and I will join up), but it will be a ginger group, and its primary role being to keep those notions alive.


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  30. Min, your approach is brilliant, I had thought already myself that everyone in a Teals electorate should now phone their representatives over every pot-hole, blocked toilet, parking issue, noise issue, electricity bill issue, fallen tree branch issue etc etc ad infinitum and thoroughly block up their local offices with crud problems such that they run screaming back to their mansions. Especially Monique Ryan.


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  31. The climate change hysteria seems somewhat cyclical. The last time it peaked was during the Flannery doomcast era in the mid-late 2000s. Teal-type ‘independent’ candidates would have had a similar opening back in 2007, but for the Kevin07 phenomenon. If Beazley went to the 2007 election, I suspect the electorate would be as unenthusiastic about the prospect of a Labor government then as it is today.

    The teals would have had no shot in 2013, when climate change was firmly off the national agenda.


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  32. but the worst, the worst, was his setting up of the National Cabinet and his ongoing silence when Australians were being bashed and bludgeoned by police during lockdowns.

    For this alone Morriswine and his band of enablers should be declared outlaw and denied food or fire on pain of death.

    Seeing them scrabbling in the gutter for 1/2 a soggy doner kebab at 2;00 am in a St Kilda laneway would be an educational experience for the body politic as a whole.


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  33. H B Bearsays:
    May 27, 2022 at 1:08 am
    duncanm at 10:01 – at $13.3m for 878 sqm you need to keep the footprint down, even if Treasury are doing the modelling.

    nah – start reclaiming some back yards. I think you need a footprint of about 25sqm for a windmill base.

    Alternatively, there is PLENTY of public and defence land around the Eastern suburbs of Sydney, I spot at least 30,000m^2 just around Macquarie light, with double that around the gap and HMAS Watson, and I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the other teal electorates are similar.

    Similarly, Zoe’s got the whole of North head (250 ha), Middle head (50 ha), Manly golf course (130ha) etc. I think you can get about 1 turbine per 25ha.

    You might think North Sydney’s no good – but I see 20ha in the golf course and another 15 around the oval. Of course it is only fair to power the entire division of north sydney off the two windmills you can locate there. No dirty outside coal power for you.


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  34. Did Senate voting reform help the coalition? I don’t think so. It seems to elect more Greens and keep out more minor parties that would align more with the coalition. Yabbott could have done so much more to work with the Senate crossbench that held the balance of power back in 2013.


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  35. Leftists Are About to Kill Millions of People Right Before Our Eyes

    Sometimes something is so horrifying that you simply cannot process it – your brain tells you that it’s not real,that it can’t be real, but the horror now approaching us is all too real. Millions of people are likely to starve to death in the next year – we know it’s coming, we know why, and yet our garbage ruling caste is paralyzed. Inflation, particularly of fossil fuels, and the crop failures caused by lack of fertilizers (again, exacerbated by lack of fossil fuels), will mean mass starvation. Oh, when the TV is filled with pictures of skeletal kids, the regime adherents will rage at us for letting this happen, but they are the architects of this massacre. And they could stop it, if they wanted to, by opening up America’s oil tap.

    But they are choosing not to act to stop it.



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  36. Betting they mostly won’t stand again. Betting they won’t improve things for their electorate either, so, along with the novelty wearing off, they wouldn’t get the numbers again.

    Think about this issue from Albo’s perspective. He would much rather have the teals occupying safe Liberal seats for as long as possible. It is in his interests to give the teals stuff they need for their electorates, to bolster their popularity for the next election and shut the Liberals out. It is certainly not in his interests to shut them out of their fair share of allocated funds.

    If the Libs squeal about corruption, he can just use Morrison’s line of argument: local members know what’s best for their electorates.


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  37. Labor is about to enact a cornucopia of stupid policies. Well, policies intended to help them and their various clients, mates, and people they have made deals with, but which happen to be at the cost of decent government. Policies good for Labor, bad for us.

    One of the most striking differences between government schemes and laws, and projects in the private sector, is that the former do not have to succeed. In the latter the project plan includes a distinct definition of required outcome and the means of measuring quality along the way. Failure can lead to penalties or even outright lawsuits where people are held individually or together responsible.

    Labor will say that their ‘plans’ will achieve ‘a’, ‘b’, ‘c’ etc. Their opponents should make a point of getting on record what they have ascertained the consequences will be. Then when the policy inevitably founders (and don’t they all) they can bring it back up to their hearts content.

    The fact they will in turn subject to the same sort of scrutiny will make them balk (they are a pretty craven mob) but if they do a better job then they will be able to crow about about how Labor is wrong again in their prognostications.

    Ooh, and they will be able to point directly to what person authored the screw up and unconscionable waste of taxpayers’ money.


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  38. It’s also a bit silly for the likes of Cassie to hearken back to the Menzian tradition and then sink the slipper into moderates within the party

    Menzies was a moderate. Especially so in the modern makeup of the party. You know who was also firmly in the Menzian tradition? Howard and his “socialist” middle class welfare.

    A modern Menzies would extend Medicare and the PBS, increase the dole, increase indigenous rights, increase immigration, and increase funding for universities. That is what the original Menzies did.


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  39. “Menzies was a moderate.”

    Absolute bullshit, Menzies was a Liberal. Now go away. You’ve outstayed your welcome here. You’re just trolling and you’re not even good at it.


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  40. Being an old-style liberal in the modern Liberal Party is to be a moderate.

    If the Libs are to follow your template for success and abandon the leafy suburbs in favour of working class areas, Cassie, they are going to have to drop support for upper-class tax cuts and corporate handouts which were the signature policies of the Morrison government. Raising the pension and JobSeeker, supporting a new round of infrastructure funding for public works, shifting education funding away from private and independent schools and towards state schools… all these policies are firmly within the Menzian tradition and all are opposed by the modern Liberal Party.

    And yet you think the most important issue is religious freedom to be bigoted.

    If they follow your strategy, they will become like Menzies’ old UAP.


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  41. Vatican official at Davos says the Church is implementing the World Economic Forum agenda

    catholic church seems to be enamoured by socialism


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  42. Mother Lode:
    Greens theology has an answer to questions about costs. It is: whatever the cost, it’s less than not adopting the Greens’ policy.
    Labor is likely to run the same argument.


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  43. The ALP has its own analogue of the coalition’s teal problem – its wealthy inner-city blue-ribbon seats turn Green. It’s more of an issue for the coalition because there are more coalition blue ribbon leafy suburban electorates, AND if the Greens win seats off Labor, they still vote with Labor most of the time. It remains to be seen how the teals are going to vote, but it doesn’t take a genius to predict that most of them are probably more aligned with Labor than with the coalition. So when the coalition loses a seat to a teal, it goes into the opposition column. When the ALP loses a seat to the Greens, they can rely on that vote for supply and confidence if needed. You have to give it to Holmes a Court – he discovered a chink in the coalition armour.

    Now, will the coalition discover the chink in the ALP’s armour, as the Tories did in the UK? Abbott made a half-hearted attempt at it with the whole ‘Tony’s tradies’ shtick, but if (when) the ALP goes fully woke when in government, and their climate policies deliver an economic bust rather than the promised bonanza, those Labor heartland seats are vulnerable as hell.

    And the ALP will go fully woke and embark upon a woke agenda. It’s baked into the pie. Can’t be avoided. All of the up-and-comers are indoctrinated and on a moral crusade. They don’t give a crap about Albo’s promises to be a moderate Labor government (whatever that means) – if you believe you’re saving the world, it would be immoral NOT to ignore commitments that stand in your way. The Wongs and Pliberseks in leadership will be sympathetic to their causes. Any remaining old hands or the more pragmatic types like Shorten and Albo himself won’t be able to hold back the tide within caucus.

    Also, Albo’s promise to do no more on climate than what he promised (which is already a lot) will be swept aside for a more ambitious agenda. The teals, the Greens and forces within his party will make this happen.

    The coalition needs to be ready to take advantage of this, and not go the Simon Birmingham route to perpetual opposition. I think it has a genuine chance this time, given that so many Simon Birmingham types have been ripped from the party room. Then again, one should never underestimate the Liberal Party’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. If it allows the ALP to frame these core issues, simply promising to be more sensible about managing the ‘climate crisis’ and avoiding the worst excesses of wokeness won’t cut it.


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  44. “Being an old-style liberal in the modern Liberal Party is to be a moderate.

    No dickhead, being an old style liberal is to be a Liberal. I won’t be lectured on the Australian Liberal Party, Menzies or liberalism in general by a fat little fascist like you.

    I think it’s time you went away. What happened to your line from last week when you said you’d just popped in here temporarily?

    The thing is, someone like Ed Case is amusing, you’re not. You’re inconsistent, you run cover for anti-Semites and other assorted progressive racists….those “legitimate grievances” and so on….and when challenged and called out for your garbage, all you do is deflect.

    Rack off.


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  45. Menzies was a liberal relative to Chifley, who was in the process of establishing a semi-planned economy when he was defeated in 1949.


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  46. Now, will the coalition discover the chink in the ALP’s armour, as the Tories did in the UK?

    There are indeed a lot of parallels with the UK to be drawn. At the recent council elections, the Tories lost Westminster and a bunch of similar inner-city seats. Their bipolar system has evolved into a four-cornered stoush, with the Tories and Liberal Democrats on one side and Labour and the Greens on the other. Obviously the Lib Dems are not wholly analogous to out local Teals, but there’s a rough approximation to be made there. It is also good to see UKIP completely cratering over there.

    Starmer and Labour are coming off a disaster of an election with the Corbyn Experiment being a complete failure. The situation for Labor here is a lot less dire, that’s probably the main difference. The Westminster dual-party system is breaking down in both countries, that much is sure.


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  47. “Oh come onsays:
    May 27, 2022 at 11:16 am
    Menzies was a liberal relative to Chifley, who was in the process of establishing a semi-planned economy when he was defeated in 1949.”

    Correct, and what did it for Labor in 1949 was the planned bank nationalisation.


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  48. Greens theology has an answer to questions about costs. It is: whatever the cost, it’s less than not adopting the Greens’ policy.
    Labor is likely to run the same argument.

    I am of a mind that they will still not achieve what they claim and they won’t do it at the costs they quote.

    In any event, the assessment of “if we don’t” is another thing to challenge them on and reveal that they had not costed it either.


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  49. Monty:
    It’s also a bit silly for the likes of Cassie to hearken back to the Menzian tradition and then sink the slipper into moderates within the party

    Menzies was a moderate.

    I’ve just finished reading Deconstructing Scomo – Critical reflections on Australia’s 30th Prime Minister (2022) by Rocco Loiacono & Augusto Zimmermann (Foreword by Prof James Allen).

    In reflecting on the place of freedom in the personal philosophy of Morrison, the authors make the comparison with how earlier Liberal PMs positioned themselves.

    In the final chapter and in regard to Menzies, two quotes stand out. (see pages 147-149, 155)

    Menzies believed that the progress of this country depended more on personal freedom rather than security provided by the State. He outlined this as one of the founding principles of the Liberal Party. In the well-known “Melbourne Address” of 7 September 1947, Menzies declared:

    If we fought for freedom, and as we fought for it, did we secure it? Are we pursuing paths along which we will eventually end up by finding ourselves bond, or free? Why was it that in 1939 we said that the Germans were not free? […] It consisted in that the German people, in return for that mess of pottage, had handed over to a few men their birthright and said: “You rule us, you govern us, you order us”.

    On …Sir Robert Menzies oft-cited reflection:

    “We took the name ‘Liberal’ because we determined to be a progressive party, willing to make experiments, in no sense reactionary but believing in the individual, his rights, and his enterprise and rejecting the socialist panacea”

    the authors refer to Tony Abbott’s point that this quote is sometimes used to make conservatives look like interlopers in the party he formed.

    However, to demonstrate the inaccuracy of this assertion, Abbott also refers Menzies’ much less familiar despairing 1974 observation in a letter to his daughter Heather about the party’s Victorian state executive:

    “dominated by what they now call ‘Liberals with a small l’ – that is to say Liberals who believe in nothing but who still believe in anything if they think it worth a few votes. The whole thing is tragic”.

    That is a description of every blue ribbon seat holder now lost to the teals. And I could through in a few more who post election remain in the parliament.

    btw, Monty, there is no evidence to argue that in the Liberal Party conservatives are against social improvements to the nation or to suggest that it’s the moderates that are most concerned about these things. Liberals have argued that whatever is done must be able to be paid for and those things should not take away the personal responsibility of the individual to first look after themselves and their families.

    On Menzies…

    From Wiki: From November 1941, he began a series of weekly radio broadcasts reaching audiences across New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A selection of these talks was edited into a book bearing the title of his most famous address, The Forgotten People, delivered on 22 May 1942. In this landmark address, Menzies appealed to his support base:

    I do not believe that the real life of this nation is to be found either in great luxury hotels and the petty gossip of so-called fashionable suburbs, or in the officialdom of the organised masses. It is to be found in the homes of people who are nameless and unadvertised, and who, whatever their individual religious conviction or dogma, see in their children their greatest contribution to the immortality of their race. The home is the foundation of sanity and sobriety; it is the indispensable condition of continuity; its health determines the health of society as a whole.

    Menzies himself described The Forgotten People collection as ‘a summarised political philosophy’. […]These were essentially the principles of liberalism: individual freedom, personal and community responsibility, the rule of law, parliamentary government, economic prosperity and progress based on private enterprise and reward for effort.

    These are all the things that raise up the people, rather than tear them down, which is why social benefits including the expanded PBS and increasing pensions, support for Catholic schools etc become part of the policies of the Menzies’ Govt. But under it all is the freedom of the individual to pursue his/her own interests and needs. That is what the Liberal Party of Australia needs to return to post haste.


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  50. Oh come onsays:
    May 27, 2022 at 11:06 am

    Fully agree. There are lots of seats in which the Libs will find Menzies’ Forgotten People. People who by and large want a hand up and not a hand out. And if the SFLs can’t do that, given the coming turmoil almost certainly to happen under the new Liars govt, then they belong with Simon Birmingham et al., in permanent opposition.


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  51. Megan says:
    May 26, 2022 at 7:12 pm

    Good argument for going to first past the post. The small group splitters become irrelevant.

    First past the post would mean absolutely zilch …… its the preferencing that kills the voting system


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  52. Modern Liberals rediscovering Menzies would be like modern Christians rediscovering Jesus. They will find a lot of stuff there that they don’t really like. They can choose to pick cherries and ignore the stuff that doesn’t fit with their ideologies, but that would miss the entire point.


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  53. “One fact I would like to know is the basic mathematical flaw in the modelling.”

    Error propagation, basically.

    Take, for instance, weather models. 1 day ahead, pretty good, 7 days ahead, pretty marginal, 14 days ahead, almost useless. This is because the next day of the forecast is based on the previous day, and since you are predicting, that means if you are just a little bit wrong on one day, you can be more wrong on the next day, even more wrong the day after and so on. If your model has a “bias” to a particular result (intentional or not), this will make things worse and shorten your “usefully predictive window”.
    With climate, by the time you reach even 50 years into the future, the error margins are so large as to cover pretty much anything that could conceivably happen – like “+1.5C +- 20C”. But don’t worry – we ran multiple models multiple times and it always comes out as 1.5C (+- 20C) so they’re probably right!

    If you check the “re-analysis product” for climate, this is typically running the model over the past, but constraining it with real observations so it doesn’t “drift” off into cloud cuckoo land. It is useful for getting an idea of what happened where you have no measurements, but if you look at the data from such runs, you can clearly see where the real data constraints are lifted.

    Then there is the modelling of clouds and precipitation, which is pretty poor. Might not sound like much, but a 1% change in cloud cover – well less than the resolution of what we have the capability to observe – would have made the same changes as the the temperature “observations”. The scare quotes exist because these are not “raw” data (ie “as measured”) but “adjusted”. There is a graph somewhere on realclimatescience.com that shows CO2 levels vs temperature adjustment amounts, and it’s very nearly a straight line. Make of that what you will.

    For Australia in particular, I can tell you that they have it the wrong way around – it is NOT increased temperatures that cause drought, but rather droughts that caused increased temperatures (from reduced evapo-transpiration). The historical record shows this clearly, if you care to check – unless you think causes precede consequences.


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  54. The LNP needs to realise that the world has turned upside down.

    They are now the party of the worker, and the ALP/greens/teals the parties of the comfortable wealthy and bureaucratic classes.


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  55. munty

    Think about this issue from Albo’s perspective. He would much rather have the teals occupying safe Liberal seats for as long as possible. It is in his interests to give the teals stuff they need for their electorates, to bolster their popularity for the next election and shut the Liberals out. It is certainly not in his interests to shut them out of their fair share of allocated funds.

    If the Libs squeal about corruption, he can just use Morrison’s line of argument: local members know what’s best for their electorates.

    It’s only political corruption when your opponents do it?


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  56. “Climate change only matters when money doesn’t.”
    That’s a liberty quote cassie.
    Of course truth is man made climate is a myth for hysterics.


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  57. munty

    they are going to have to drop support for upper-class tax cuts and corporate handouts which were the signature policies of the Morrison government.

    What makes you think (other than your gross ignorance and arrogance) that commenters here would object? The fascist linkages between Big Government and Big Business in Australia have become painfully apparent recently.

    shifting education funding away from private and independent schools and towards state schools…

    Mmmmm. Dream on munty, Menzies introduced state aid to private schools. And the rest of your fantasies are no more valid.


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  58. “…simply promising to be more sensible about managing the ‘climate crisis’ and avoiding the worst excesses of wokeness won’t cut it.”

    It’ll “cut it” just fine if that is what they negotiate back to. If they say they’ll kill all that stuff, then say “Well, OK, some of this is good and needs to stay…” they’ll be fine. But if their starting point is what you say, they’ll be screwed from the start.

    It’s all very well (and probably good, politically) to be near the middle, but if that’s what you want, you can’t start from there! The left will never be happy with it regardless, so better to start with the extreme and when you give some concessions, they’ll be “Phew! Could have been worse, and we had a win making them wind it back.”


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  59. Menzies was a moderate.

    Menzies tried to ban the Communist Party, please. The point about harkening back to the Menzian tradition is that it admits that neoliberalism is dead in the party and that it will look to at social and economic issues differently than has occurred in the last 40 years but with a nod to the roots of the party.


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  60. Modern Liberals rediscovering Menzies would be like modern Christians rediscovering Jesus. They will find a lot of stuff there that they don’t really like.

    Like marriage is between a man and a woman? Yes, you might be on to something there.


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  61. The point about harkening back to the Menzian tradition is that it admits that neoliberalism is dead in the party and that it will look to at social and economic issues differently than has occurred in the last 40 years but with a nod to the roots of the party.

    Neoliberalism is most definitely not dead in the Liberal Party. Their donors from the fossil fuel industries are all neoliberals through and through.

    You and I may wish that neoliberalism is dead (for different reasons), but I remain skeptical that it will ever be so in the LNP. The death of neoliberalism would involve applying rent resource taxes, for one thing, which is practically the main reason for existence of the Liberal Party at this point.


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  62. “If they follow your strategy, they will become like Menzies’ old UAP.”

    It’s the economy, stupid!
    If that’s going gangbusters, no-one really cares if your maaates get a few handouts. But if it’s stuffed, everyone cares.
    We already know how to get the economy going gangbusters – cut taxes and regulations.
    That includes green as well as red tape.
    If “ignorance of the law is no excuse” then it is GovCo’s job to make sure you don’t need a lawyer to know what is legal!
    Simplify!
    Reduce!
    Get GovCo the hell out of my life and business!
    Simple, flat tax rates and use the tax free threshold to make the taxes “progressive”.
    Don’t tax business when it spends money in the economy, only when they take it out as profits – that increases everyone’s turnover, and that turnover attracts GST as well as creating jobs. More jobs create more demand and more business. More GST means less federal $ needed by states.
    Simple tax rules and rates that are “acceptable” mean no need to employ some smart-alec tax lawyer to reduce your taxes – not worth it, and nothing to “cheat” on anyway.
    Seems fair because it IS!
    Government ends up with MORE taxes by reducing rates that are above about 20% or so – look it up, it’s real!

    You could get economic growth into the 4-6% range with this strategy, easily. Been done before. Works EVERY time – never failed. Only breaks when either a global disaster happens (war, pestilence etc – “external” shocks beyond anyone’s control), or when the electorate gets so used to good times, they think they can toss you out and put in socialists.


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  63. duncanm

    They are now the party of the worker, and the ALP/greens/teals the parties of the comfortable wealthy and bureaucratic classes.

    And so the Kulak munty proclaims that radical fascist leftism is really actual Liberalism (with a capital). In reality, that radical fascist leftism is far closer to the so-called “progressivism” pushed by the US DemonRats.


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  64. munty

    The death of neoliberalism would involve applying rent resource taxes, for one thing,

    munty returns to high taxing as his test for whatever he ultimately wants!


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  65. Kneel, that is yet another lovely summation of the resources rentseeker manifesto, but it’s not particularly Menzian. It also doesn’t appeal much to the working class battlers, and it’s benefits are targeted mostly at the leafy suburbs.

    Try again, this time with more Howard.


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  66. You and I may wish that neoliberalism is dead (for different reasons), but I remain skeptical that it will ever be so in the LNP.

    NeoLiberalism took a big hit in those Teal Seats.
    Looks like Dave Sharma is now the ABCs go-to man on the future of NeoLiberalism in the Liberal Party [Dave reckons it is the future, 40% of the voters reckon he’s dreamin’].


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  67. The important thing to notice here was that people who would normally vote Labor in these seats voted strategically.

    Really?
    Why didn’t they just vote Labor and try to win the Seat on Green Preferences?


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  68. Min, your approach is brilliant, I had thought already myself that everyone in a Teals electorate should now phone their representatives over every pot-hole, blocked toilet, parking issue, noise issue, electricity bill issue, fallen tree branch issue etc etc ad infinitum and thoroughly block up their local offices with crud problems …

    Labor Party members have been doing that in Non-Labor Electorates since Methuselah was a pup.


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  69. Tony Abbott lost the 2022 Election back in September 2013 when he squibbed on Repeal of S 18[c].
    Massive betrayal of the Liberal Party and their supporters, the chookens came home to roost last Saturday night.


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  70. The Liberal Party has struggled to find volunteers since Abbott went the squib.
    That they’ve still got 60 Seats is bordering on miraculous.


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  71. Bar Beach Swimmer:

    Even though the whole thing is a giant wealth-transfer with no benefit to be gained by reducing emissions for the country, or the planet,

    It’s a giant wealth transfer from the poor and working classes of the West to the Corruptocrats wherever they may be.


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  72. HBBear:

    Further to my prediction I am on record as saying Chaney wouldn’t get up. I appears I may be fallible.

    Nooo!
    Only your pants are fallible, HBB


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  73. TFM:

    Seeing them scrabbling in the gutter for 1/2 a soggy doner kebab at 2;00 am in a St Kilda laneway would be an educational experience for the body politic as a whole.

    A most rapturous mental picture, TFM.
    Mine hat is in the doffed position.


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  74. It’s a giant wealth transfer from the poor and working classes of the West to the Corruptocrats wherever they may be.

    So why are you shilling for Nuclear Power to reduce emissions, then?


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  75. Duncanm:
    Christison Park looks like a good spot for half a dozen monster turbines.
    Sydney Harbour National Park would fit quite a few.
    …and a couple of big round areas would be just great for a couple of wind turbines in the 100Mw range near Rawson Park. One in the middle of the ground and a field of solar panels. It’d be luvverly. And so Green!
    Just think of the bragging rights the Tea Ladies would be able to bring to the next election!


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  76. It is also good to see UKIP completely cratering over there.

    Indeed!

    How dare a party that accurately reflects the desires of the great unwashed masses have the temerity to even exist!

    *** Self-Righteous Moustache Twirling and Jowl-Wobbling Intensifies ***

    #BenitoM0ntylini


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  77. ROFLMAO!

    In a desperate attempt to convince everyone that he is the “Only conservative on the blog”, munty has listed all of his own political desires, then claimed that a “modern” Menzies would implement them.

    Regrettably, probably owing to his permanent wrongology, he included one item where Menzies did the opposite (state aid to private schools), and another in which Menzies showed no interest (Medicare – Menzies favoured private health insurance). With another item, increased immigration, Menzies did favour this, but with a focus on cultural compatibility and assimilation (the latter haram to modern so-called “progressives”).

    Nice try munts, fail!


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  78. Ed Casesays:
    May 27, 2022 at 7:04 pm
    It’s a giant wealth transfer from the poor and working classes of the West to the Corruptocrats wherever they may be.

    So why are you shilling for Nuclear Power to reduce emissions, then?

    A cosmetic attempt to satisfy the unsatisfiable fanatics of gerbil worming, to remove the corruption of process under ruinables policy, and to provide reliable, continuous power to the “poor and working classes”.

    Are you that dense, Dickless?


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  79. Luzu 9.57

    I am male – vain conceited and shallow
    Real women are mendacious, manipulative and underhanded

    Then in lies the attraction between the sexes – and viv la differonce


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  80. Kneel – 12.29
    Thank you for the explanation – I will have to go over it a few times. Thank you for the reference to the website.
    Re your comments about cloud cover and drought, the idea of building a mountain in north west WA where there is a rise which slopes south.
    If a mountain range was built , how high and how much extra. Rain would this cause sweeping across Oz.
    Further what would be the effect be on the cold fronts in winter, low pressure systems in summer, which moves through Perth but move off in to southern ocean before the Nullarbor, or the low pressure systems which move toward the Oz land mass but appear s to hit the bight and defects back over the ocean.


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  81. Monty re discriminatory private schools.
    Disagree with this – it’s a thilthy Marxist lie.
    Going to a Catholic school you learn fast that you are at the bottom of the caste system.
    The public school kids would try to pick you for being a private school poofta.
    The Private English schools kids did’nt cop it as severe but we’re looked up upon.
    Our school gave free education to poor Catholic families who could not afford the fees, ww2 migrants, provided free education to those bastard bolts of south east Asia – the Vietnamese.
    We discussed how we saw the world and treat people – for what they are – as we are all treated equally in Gods eyes.
    So at Uni what do the envious state school kids say, private school poofta, bible bashin poofta, stuck up snob, and endless foul mouthing of other religions, cultures etc. or my fave – you Catholics you and your fuckin families
    Then when you put effort in, they don’t like that at all – fuck off, why do ya won a do that, what a pile of shit – which leads to vandalism and violence.
    When these people land an above average earning job what do they do try to gel a family, send their children to private schools, do not blow cash on alcohol and even drive a European car.


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  82. Why didn’t they just vote Labor and try to win the Seat on Green Preferences?

    Because there wasn’t enough of them to win. The 2PP Lib v Labor still favoured the Lib.

    The Teals took some first preference votes from the Libs, from voters that still gave the Libs their second preference.

    Labor couldn’t win in their own right, but could prevent those Lib Teal preferences from being distributed to the Libs – by making the Teal win. By having ALP voters vote Teal, the Lib was defeated, because instead of being 2PP Lib v Labor, it became 2PP Lib v Teal.


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  83. I hope Labor wins an absolute majority so that it can govern without the Greens and the oleaginous teals. At least it has to pretend (however hypocritically) to care about the working classes. (Did anyone notice, by the way, the ghastly Jenna Price spewing about Labor’s selection of Dan Repacholi in Hunter?)
    As for Princess Allegra Big Spender, her comments to the SMH on housing affordability were very revealing. She didn’t think abolishing negative gearing was the answer. No surprise there: most of her supporters would think they were hard up if they only had five investment properties. No, she said, the answer is greater housing density – but of course not in Wentworth! Fancy those impudent bogan redneck proles in the western suburbs wanting backyards for their disgusting prolespawn to play in! How dare they?


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  84. In a charitable frame of mind, as befits a Sunday, I wonder if we should be a little considerate towards HH Princess Allegra.

    After all, she is going to find the transition to being an MP confronting, even traumatic, for at least two reasons.

    First, she will face the novel challenge of the lower orders (including miscellaneous bogans and rednecks) presuming to answer her back. How dare they?!

    Second, an MP is legally an employee of the Crown, so her parliamentary salary will be liable, at least in theory, from income tax. If she has even been subjected to that gross indignity in her charmed life, we can be sure it was a long time ago. Her expensive team of tax-deductible accounts are no doubt already explaining that she cannot incorporate herself and supply her parliamentary services through a family company or trust. (Quelle horreur!) But I’m sure they will eventually find a way to reduce her tax bill to the accustomed zero. Taxes are for the proles to pay, after all.


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  85. Oh well the lights will go out in the Teal electorates , just like everywhere else, as Labor pushes towards “RE” goals that can never be achieved without supply destruction. They seem to wilfully ignore the failures in South Australia, UK, Germany and California. They must think its like socialism, those other failed States just didnt do it right. The current “RE” technology set has failed to support first world economies and we have no widely deployable and affordable storage solution. It seems numeracy and a basic STEM education is missing in all the key decision makers (just look at their profiles) , its all about the vibe and the virtue.

    So on we go adding variability, intermittency, complexity and all the related costs while still needing coal and gas to stabilise the while mess. And then they talk about how “cheap” solar and wind are. I wonder if the delusional Energy Minister in VIC is still trotting out her “downward pressure on prices ” line as costs go through the roof.

    Of course they will point the finger at coal and gas generation as the source of the problem after having spent the previous years removing coal and gas reserve generation. Now with no spare dispatchable generation the removal of coal and gas generation units for planned or unplanned maintenance becomes a big issue. The fact that they are dependant on coal and gas for stability and affordability escapes them. Instead they chat, Idiocracy style , for more “RE” so more variability, intermittency, complexity and costs it is. That will fix it.


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  86. “Re your comments about cloud cover and drought, the idea of building a mountain in north west WA where there is a rise which slopes south.”

    I don’t have a reference to hand, however it is my understanding that getting vegetation started in arid areas is key, especially near the coast – it is not that such vegetation grows where there is a rain, but rather that it rains where such vegetation exists.
    So getting vegetation started and established creates more rain and the area can grow once it passes a certain minimum threshold.


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  87. “Instead they chat, Idiocracy style , for more “RE” so more variability, intermittency, complexity and costs it is. That will fix it.”

    Oh, it will – eventually.
    When they discover that it doesn’t work they way they are told it will, or that the billions (trillions?) already spent have managed a measly 5% or so of supply, so we are gonna need to spend at least 20 times as much as we already have.
    Of course, that will either see them tipped out on the arses, or doing a major about face on the whole idea – maybe both.


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  88. The obsessive Morrison-haters in the media gave the teals a free run. Does anyone know, for example, how Princess Allegra would vote (or how Lord Simon would direct her to vote) on Labor’s policy of cracking down on tax loopholes in trust funds? Voting with Labor on this wouldn’t go down well in Wentworth or Kooyong, I suspect.

    We do know, of course, that Her Highness thinks the solution to housing affordability is greater housing density, not in Wentworth but for the bogans in the suburbs.

    That said, she needn’t worry too much about trusts. Cracking down on trusts is the Labor equivalent of the National Party’s new dam or the fast train: it appears like clockwork when an election is coming and is never heard of again.


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