All we can do is think of England


Changes in my personal life meant that I was forced to downsize in 2014. My new (small) place is ultra-convenient. No need for a car so I didn’t buy one, until now. Didn’t fancy dying carless. Ordered a new yellow MG hatch in mid-May. I cancelled at the end of October, have been told yet another fairy tale by the car salesman. In order, and I’m not making it up: It’s arrived but in quarantine; it’s been sent back to China; a new one has arrived and is on the docks; it will be here very soon in a matter of days; it’s back on the docks.

Cars are no longer manufactured in Australia. General Motors, Ford, Toyota, and Mitsubishi are all gone. Driven out by union bloody-mindedness and the economic challenges of manufacturing for a small domestic market. The current wait time for a new car in Australia can be up to a year and more, I hear. This applies no less and perhaps more to electric cars. Me, I ended up buying a used car. Pre-owned, or pre-loved, I think the shysters who sell cars call it. Though I’m being mean. I bought online and the service seemed pretty good. It would have been more difficult if I were mad enough to go electric. Few to choose from. And imagine trying to find an electrician to fix a charging point in my 1970s apartment building. It would blow all the fuses. Anyway, my park is outside, so how would that work? It’s irrelevant. Electricians have to be booked many months ahead.

I mention all this to draw attention to the reality that we can’t always get what we want. Even Chris Bowen. The Labor government and their wayward modelling mates reckon that one third of households by 2030 will be driving electric cars and have charging points installed; that’s 3.8 million of them (cars and charging points)– from the low tens of thousands of EVs now trundling around posh suburbs. It’s crazy talk. Part of the climate-change-cum-green-energy madness infecting the political and corporate classes.

Add in AEMO’s requirement that we build nine times the wind and solar farms we have now. And, that’s quite apart from the blanketing tens of thousands of far-flung square kilometres with wind and solar to make green hydrogen and Australia into a “green hydrogen [exporting] superpower.” And that’s apart from building 28,000 kilometres of high voltage transmission lines. And, still, when the sun don’t shine and that wind ain’t blowing strongly somewhere, where’s the power coming from? All coal-power stations demolished. Natural gas development demonised and stymied. There’s batteries! It’s mindboggling. They can’t be serious. We’re being gaslighted, surely? It’s working. Death where is thy sting.

Short of leaving this mortal coil, what to do? Think of England….


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eb
eb
November 27, 2022 3:35 pm

Think of England…or Germany, or California. Or Ireland where to re-charge the EV now costs more than to re-fuel the ICE car.

But Renewables (randoms) are cheaper; yeah, as long as you exclude most of the costs, like transmission and back-up.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
November 27, 2022 4:08 pm

Mordy Bromberg, who single-handedly killed Toyota Australia, has caused more carnage in Australia than any other person in our history.

I always buy second hand cars about 7 years old. That equation means they are less than half the price of a new car, all mechanical issues have been rectified and they don’t have to do any of those horrible scheduled services any longer. Last one I had for 16 years, this one 8 years so far. Very few mechanical probs in all this time.

By contrast an EV battery lasts about 8 years, and costs an absolute fortune to replace. Which most people haven’t realized, given the shocked press articles we’re seeing of punters who get caught out.

Hydrogen would be fun. Perps would run a tube from stolen cars to ATMs then blow the cash out of them. ATMs would rapidly become extinct. I suspect the WEF types would shed no tears at that since they lurve state controlled electronic money.

Petros
Petros
November 27, 2022 4:25 pm

There are a lot of second hand vehicles now that are holding up very well in resale value. Diesel 4wd for example. Buy a manual and the millennials can’t steal it.

Rabz
November 27, 2022 4:43 pm

Cars are no longer manufactured in Australia

Ugly unreliable overpriced rubbish “manufactured” by lazy entitled union imbeciles.

Yet we still pay tariffs on imported vehicles.

Thanks, labore!

billie
billie
November 27, 2022 4:51 pm

guvvument seems to have lots of money, they could buy us all an EV

Sylvester the cat
Sylvester the cat
November 27, 2022 4:56 pm

Nice post Peter. My motor was manufactured in 1989, in an era when Mercedes (and Toyota) still made real cars.
With luck, I can keep the Merc going for another decade. They aint cheap to keep on the road.

Christine
Christine
November 27, 2022 5:20 pm

You’re right
It’s crazy talk

Louis Litt
Louis Litt
November 27, 2022 5:46 pm

Hi Bruce – could you please explain who is Mordy Brunberg and how did wreck Toyota Australia.
I recall on this blog some one writing in a communique from Tokyo to Melbourne asking in the time it took to roll out 2 cars in Japan in melbs they could only roll out one car, that with the latest machinery.
Are there books on this topic in Aus or books on gm surviving by moving from Detroit to Tennessee – I can’t recall if the wage bill dropped by 33% or 67%

Speedbox
November 27, 2022 5:47 pm

It’s a matter of record that I’ve posted about EVs previously. Sometimes as a comment plus now and then, via a guest post.

My position has always been that EVs are inevitable. Regular Cat readers will recognise my comments that the decisions were made a long time ago in places far away from Australia. The global rush by 1st world countries to ‘net zero by 2050’ means that the internal combustion engine MUST be eradicated from global roads. Net zero is impossible otherwise. Cars are first, followed by buses, trucks, heavy equipment, ships and aircraft will eventually follow – except those (mostly) won’t change to electric, probably hydrogen or perhaps something else.

Every single one of us recognises the vast, and incredibly expensive issues that will need to be overcome – and all in just 2 or 3 decades. Not to mention the social disruption. But that change will come because governments have gone too far and cannot/will not be stopped. Yesterday’s election in Victoria saw the Greens gain about 12% of the primary vote. 12% FFS! And that is just the tip of the green movements power.

Add to that every grifter, chancer, snake-oil salesman and charlatan looking to make a buck. They know that this global change to net zero is unstoppable so they’re getting on-board to get their slice of the pie. The MSM is cheering and clapping like trained seals……green indoctrination starts in primary school and is unrelenting in every corner you care to name. CO2 emission reduction is now the byword in every industry and even many sports. And this is just the beginning.

Vehicle manufacturers were promised that change to EVs was global government policy so the manufacturers invested, and continue to invest, billons in development. From their perspective, hundreds of millions of cars will be effectively legislated out of existence in the next 20-30 years from the global fleet of approximately 1.4 billion cars.

Do we think the vehicle manufacturers need much more convincing? This changeover presents opportunities that Henry Ford could have only dreamt. That’s why the manufacture of new ICE cars will generally stop no later than 2035 and in some cases, before (except for a very few niche manufacturers). Then, Governments will take over and make ICE vehicle rego, insurance and petrol ruinously expensive via ‘environmental levies’. Eventually, we will all fold because in time, the authorities will make the ICE car soooo expensive to own and operate.

Every single one of us recognises the problems with charging all these electric (or fuelling hydrogen) vehicles. The cost to build the infrastructure, never mind the sheer logistics, are staggering, almost incomprehensible. And whether it can even be done in the next 30 years has a huge question mark.

And don’t get me started on the issues with old battery disposal/recycling, replacement cost and a litany of other aspects not least of which is mining/processing the raw materials.

But despite all that you can take it to the bank that ICE cars are finished and the beginning of the transition phase to EV (or hydrogen) is underway. The global mantra of net zero by 2050 guarantees it.

Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
November 27, 2022 5:57 pm

Message to Elbow and Bone Head Bowen. ‘Your Dreaming if you think this Transition thingy is going to work’. It will end up as a Nightmare for Australia though……………………

entropy
entropy
November 27, 2022 6:00 pm

All true Speedbox. Efficiency and practicality are irrelevant. Governments in the [european] manufacturing countries have dictated, so the car manufacturers will do what is required. Inevitable result, the well heeled will still buy new cars, everyone else keeps cars a lot longer. Like Cuba.

Apart from that, Mr Smith, what the hell were you thinking to almost buy a chinese car? They were busy banning our stuff at the time, yet you wanted to buy their stuff? it is impossible to buy a car without chinese components, but you could at least make a stand and not buy a chinese brand.

Speedbox
November 27, 2022 6:57 pm

entropy says:
November 27, 2022 at 6:00 pm

Individual EU governments yes, but also the EU (as a bloc), the UN (plus assorted UN entities notably the annual UN Climate Change Conference and the UN Global Climate Change Alliance), the WEF, WHO, New Climate Initiative and others to extensive to list here. I once tried to add them all up to see how many – but the task was impossible, there are hundreds (thousands?) of primary entities plus assorted offshoots.

But, every single one either has their hand in the public purse or, are leeching off the private sector and many also make public appeals for donations which they receive to a greater or lesser extent. I can’t imagine how much money is flowing around the green infrastructure much less the cost to actually achieve the proposed targets.

The problem with keeping your older car is that the authorities will make that more costly each year with various ‘environmental levies’. By 2040, a litre of fuel may carry a $2+/litre levy whilst your annual rego will have a $1000+ levy. All for the good of da planet you earth hating recalcitrant!! I am guessing of course on the actual cost but as we edge closer to 2050, I am certain that owning/driving a petrol ICE car will be heavily penalised. Those least able to afford to change will be hit the hardest (as usual).

Governments from (say) 2030 will be able to wring their hands and lament that the decisions on changes were made many years ago and can’t be undone (which will be true) but every government will also push full steam ahead. Special levies will have to be introduced to pay for all of this. Of course, there will be many who will willingly pay to save da planet.

Fortunes will be made over the coming years. We are just at the beginning of a global shift in process (not just cars) that will reconfigure the world in many ways. People will come and go, wars will be fought but the one constant will be the “climate change” chant and the urgency to achieve net zero by 2050. Moses should be so lucky to have such wide spread acknowledgement of the Commandments.

It doesn’t matter what we may think about climate change etc. Our input was not sought, nor is it required now – the decisions have already been made.

Old School Conservative
Old School Conservative
November 27, 2022 7:24 pm

I may have mention this before; there are some people putting a deposit on a 12-month wait car and then on-selling the contract as delivery finally happens. Some purchasers are keen to pay over retail in order to get the immediate delivery.

Diogenes
Diogenes
November 27, 2022 7:38 pm

Building code has just been changed so that new unit blocks will need to include provision for charging at every parking spot … Note not actually supply a charger, just make sure they can be easily installed.

H B Bear
H B Bear
November 27, 2022 7:45 pm

My philosophy was drive the cheapest car your ego could afford, which in my case ended up being a 25yo RAV4. Didn’t have much trouble with speed cameras and plenty of cash left over for fast bikes.

Buccaneer
Buccaneer
November 27, 2022 7:48 pm

I have a new car on order, should arrive in Jan. internal combustion vehicles will keep increasing in value as they get banned from new sale. There will never be enough charging stations or enough ruinable energy to charge them. It will be just like living in the old USSR, queuing for everything, if it’s not already.

Roger
Roger
November 27, 2022 8:00 pm

By contrast an EV battery lasts about 8 years

Which is about what it takes to offset the carbon footprint its production generated.

Assuming you’re recharging it with 100% renewable energy, that is.

Hello, peak stupidity!

Brought to you by universal education. But I digress.

Razey
Razey
November 27, 2022 8:55 pm

Never buy a new car. Just put a new engine in it and get another 300,000km out of it.

Louis Litt
Louis Litt
November 27, 2022 8:59 pm

Hi Bruce , googled mordy Bromberg – now I understand.
Unbelievable what can do as a union.
Two of the greatest industries, two of the most productive, car manufacture and shop building gone.
All of that skill lost.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
November 27, 2022 9:21 pm

Thanks for doing that Louis. The Toyota decision was interesting since the wukkas and the union had negotiated an agreement with management only for Mordy to spike the whole deal thereby causing Toyota to pull the plug forever.

I suspect Toyota would’ve eventually have bugged out but Mordy caused it to be earlier rather than later. I wonder what Andrew Bolt, who is another victim of the good judge, thought of the decision?

Been other decisions as fruity, one recently, but I can’t recall what it was.

Wally Dalí
Wally Dalí
November 27, 2022 9:31 pm

Works for pre-80’s tanks, Razey san- any car after that is nigh impossible, because what little space under the bonnet there is, is taken up by wires and tubes.
I’m flying east with a mate in May, to drive back a diesel Merc. Literally an apocalypse insurance measure.

NFA
NFA
November 27, 2022 10:30 pm

Why would you think that there will be a need for many cars by 2050?

Damon
Damon
November 27, 2022 10:35 pm

“you can take it to the bank that ICE cars are finished”
Ain’t gonna happen. The populace will revolt. Guaranteed. Not even the lethargic Australian population will accept a medieval lifestyle. There were cracks in the system during Covid, and the government pushed it about as far as it was going to go,

Petros
Petros
November 27, 2022 10:49 pm

Maybe we’ll end up like Cuba where they keep the old American cars on the road and in good condition. Ours will be any ICE vehicle.

vlad redux
vlad redux
November 28, 2022 12:04 am

Bromberg J found that there was a “duty of care” (ie at law) to certain children with regard to climate change.

Overturned on appeal to the Full Court this year and a good thing too.

johanna
johanna
November 28, 2022 3:53 am

I must respectfully disagree with Speedbox, although the arguments are well constructed.

My guide is history. Speedbox is telling us that governments could have forced people to buy electric cars back in the early days of the industry, but for some reason they didn’t. Now they can and will.

Not buying it.

Electric cars are a toy for the affluent. Yes, some of them are very appealing (when I first got into a taxi that was a Prius, I was blown away about how beautiful the finishes were) but economics rool. OK?

That the limp rags who describe themselves as our conservative parties don’t highlight the gap between the rhetoric and the reality is our biggest problem.

OldOzzie
OldOzzie
November 28, 2022 8:03 am

Speedboxsays:
November 27, 2022 at 5:47 pm

Do we think the vehicle manufacturers need much more convincing? This changeover presents opportunities that Henry Ford could have only dreamt. That’s why the manufacture of new ICE cars will generally stop no later than 2035 and in some cases, before (except for a very few niche manufacturers).

Russia will have enough Brains, especially due to Climate to keep manufacturing of ICE cars & trucks amd what has not been addressed is that Africa, Middle Wat & Asia will not have the EV infrastructure in play and will continue to med ICE Vehicles

Only Western Governments are Stupid enough to destroy their own Societies.

Japan Toyota CEO has enough Brains to realise that Reality

Toyota’s CEO Says EV Adoption Will Take Longer Than Expected

Carmaker will continue to make hybrids, gas-powered models
Chief Toyoda says company to offer wide array of options

&

Toyota CEO Says Moving to All EVs Would Leave Some Customers Behind

The comments by Akio Toyoda come as Toyota faces pressure to show it isn’t falling behind in the industry’s electric-vehicle race

&

Toyota Warns (Again) About Electrifying All Autos. Is Anyone Listening?

‘Bleeding obvious’: Toyota CEO says California ban on gas-powered car sales ‘difficult’

October 02, 2022 – 12:21PM

Sky News host Rowan Dean says the CEO of Toyota has stated the “bleeding obvious” by revealing it will be “difficult” to achieve California’s plan to ban the sale of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035.

Eyrie
Eyrie
November 28, 2022 8:05 am

when I first got into a taxi that was a Prius, I was blown away about how beautiful the finishes were

???? First time I got into a Prius taxi I was appalled at the cheap and nasty cardboard interior etc. Worked Ok but the current ones have 1.8L Corolla engines. If you worked on a Corolla to reduce the weight (cheap and nasty interior), improve the aero (underbody pan) and of course you’ve left out the battery and electric motor, put low friction tyres on etc I wonder just how much worse the fuel consumption would be?
Mate in WA bought a Prius. He’s a retired geologist and won’t even discuss the global warming bs as he thinks it is utter rubbish. Claims he bought the Prius for low fuel consumption so we don’t have to give so much money to the Arabs so they can’t buy as many weapons with which to kill each other. I was looking at him wondering what the downside to that was.

OldOzzie
OldOzzie
November 28, 2022 8:22 am

Apologies spelling hits above – brain and fingers not in sync yet – slowly waking up

Russia will have enough Brains, especially due to Climate to keep manufacturing of ICE cars & trucks and what has not been addressed is that Africa, Middle East & Asia will not have the EV infrastructure in play and will continue to need ICE Vehicles

TrevorG
TrevorG
November 28, 2022 8:37 am

OldOzzie says:
November 28, 2022 at 8:22 am

Russia will have enough Brains, especially due to Climate to keep manufacturing of ICE cars & trucks and what has not been addressed is that Africa, Middle East & Asia will not have the EV infrastructure in play and will continue to need ICE Vehicles

Russia always had enough brainy people to invent things, it was the ideology of its politicians that got in the way during the USSR but even then, their engineers prevailed.
They like to keep things uncomplicated.

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
November 28, 2022 10:50 am

Old Ozzie, yes, the rest of the world has been left out of the EV equation. Also trucks and heavy haulage will require huge amounts of electricity and long charging times. Can’t see that ever becoming acceptable. Having just returned from car-based America, I think the push back over EV’s will come soon, a similar situation prevails in Australia given the same large distances and extended suburbs. As for hydrogen – it explodes. And leaks through metal. Makes ‘going up’ in a hydrogen fuelled plane as attractive as the word Hindenburg and fills our highways full of mobile bombs. Not a winner there.

Speedbox and others here have analysed how embedded in the First World is the idea of Net Zero and the whole climate cult. So we will probably end up by 2050 with a lot of clapped-out wind and solar farms standing signal to a certain form of madness that took over the world in the 2020’s and 2030’s. I’d guess most nations would by then be happily returning to using oil and gas to fuel an acceptable level of industry and transport. Getting rid of the carcasses and pollution caused by these poor ‘needing renewal’ renewables, shown by then to be poor excuses for an energy system, would be high on the agenda by then too. I won’t be around to see this, but I live in hope that it will be so for the sake of my children and grandchildren.

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
November 28, 2022 10:58 am

As for lying on one’s back and thinking of England while this level of international rogering is going on – well, that won’t improve things. England is not what it used to be.
Just how much damage has already been done I guess I’ll find out in January, when I’m there. 🙂

Bar Beach Swimmer
November 28, 2022 11:16 am

For Speedbox:

This is a list I put up on the old Cat.

30 Famous Predictions That Couldn’t Have Been More Horribly Wrong
https://www.buzznicked.com/horrible-predictions/

1. Prediction: “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.”
Who: Albert Einstein When: 1932

2. Prediction: “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”
Who: Decca Recording Company on declining to sign the Beatles When: 1962

3. Prediction: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”
Who: Western Union internal memo When: 1876

4. Prediction: “Reagan doesn’t have that presidential look.”
Who: United Artists executive after rejecting Reagan as lead in the film The Best Man When: 1964

5. Prediction: “Rail travel at high-speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
Who: Dr. Dionysius Lardner When: 1830

6. Prediction: “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Who: Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM When: 1943

7. Prediction: “X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
Who: Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society When: 1883

8. Prediction: “Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure.”
Who: Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison’s light bulb When: 1880

9. Prediction: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad.”
Who: The president of the Michigan Savings Bank When: 1903, advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co

10. Prediction: “Television won’t last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
Who: Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox When: 1946

11. Prediction: “No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free.”
Who: King William I of Prussia, on trains When: 1864

12. Prediction: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
Who: Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) When:
1977 , in a talk given to a World Future Society meeting in Boston

13. Prediction: “If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one.”
Who: W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute When: 1954

14. Prediction: “No, it will make war impossible.”
Who: Hiram Maxim, an English scientist and inventor of the machine gun, when asked: “Will this gun not make war more terrible?” When: 1893

15. Prediction: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?”
Who: Someone responding to a request to invest in the radio When: 1921

16. Prediction: “There will never be a bigger plane built.”
Who: A Boeing engineer, referring to the 247, twin-engine plane that holds 10 people. When: 1933

17. Prediction: “How, sir, would you make a ship sail against the wind and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck? I pray you, excuse me, I have not the time to listen to such nonsense.”
Who: Napoleon Bonaparte When: 1800’s when he heard of Robert Fulton’s steamboat

18. Prediction: “The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is little short of treasonous.”
Who: Comment of Aide-de-camp to Field Marshal Haig When: 1916, at a tank demonstration

19. Prediction: “I must confess that my imagination refuses to see any sort of submarine doing anything but suffocating its crew and floundering at sea.”
Who: HG Wells, British novelist When: 1901

20. Prediction: “The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most.”
Who: IBM, to the founders of Xerox, saying the photocopier had no market large enough to justify production When: 1959

21. Prediction: “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”
Who: Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office When: 1878

22. Prediction: “It’ll be gone by June.”
Who: Variety Magazine on Rock n’ Roll When: 1955

23. Prediction: “And for the tourist who really wants to get away from it all, safaris in Vietnam”
Who: Newsweek, predicting popular holidays When: Late 1960

24. Prediction: “When the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light will close with it and no more will be heard of it.”
Who: Oxford professor Erasmus Wilson When: 1878

25. Prediction: “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.”
Who: New York Times When: 1936

26. Prediction: “It might be assumed that the flying machine… might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanics in from one million to ten million years”
30 Famous Predictions That Couldn’t Have Been More Horribly Wrong
Reddit
Who: The New York Times When: 1903

27. Prediction: “The coming of the wireless era will make war impossible, because it will make war ridiculous.”
Who: Guglielmo Marconi, pioneer of radio When: 1912 to Technical World Magazine

28. Prediction: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.”
Who: Steve Ballmer When: 2007

29. Prediction: “Where a calculator like ENIAC today is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh only 1.5 tons”
Who: Popular Mechanics Magazine When: 1949

30. Prediction: “So many centuries after the Creation it is unlikely that anyone could find hitherto unknown lands of any value.”
Who: Committee advising King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella of Spain regarding a proposal by Christopher Columbus When: 1486

Speedbox, I don’t doubt the level of determination in organisations like the UN and EU to get their way on EVs and every other crackpot scheme immaginable.

But just because our “lords and masters” have the will doesn’t mean there’s an actual the way for it to be achieved, (leaving aside the “Great” Klaus Schwab’s “you will own nothing and you will be happy” schtick).

There’s always reality to contend with of which this is a minor example…

Reported on the telly the other night was that in parts of China demonstrations have broken out against the Chinese Govt’s covid controls because Chinese fans have seen footage of large crowds without covid controls – masking etc – at the World Cup. Never thought I’d say it but “viva futbol!”

Roger W
Roger W
November 28, 2022 11:24 am

Last two comments by Lizzie nail it.
By the early 2030s the issue of battery replacement will be a reality. I have read that the estimated lower end of replacement costs is around $10,000, with Lexus quoted as + $40,000.
We also assume that The West is The World. China, India, Russia, Indonesia, the whole of Africa (excluding SA?), just about all South and Central America, etc etc do not buy into the net zero madness, or only to the extent of demanding money as “reparations” for the “horrors” of the industrial revolution.
Anyway, the supply of lithium etc can’t keep up, however many child labourers they have slaving in the Congo.
Still, by then The West will be a smoking woke ruin, so it is all hypothetical.

Arky
November 28, 2022 11:37 am

Anyone thought of this:
If we no longer use petrol and diesel for cars, and if bitumen is a byproduct of fossil fuel use, then what will future roads be made out of?
Is there some massive supply of bitumen seperate from the supply of the fuels distilled out of it?
If we are still going to make roads for electric cars to travel on out of bitumen, what are we going to do with the diesel, kero and petrol fractions? Chuck them down the drain?

Arky
November 28, 2022 11:47 am

Bitumen, like conventional crude oil, is useful only once it has been refined to transport fuels (or petrochemicals). Unlike conventional crude oil, oilsands-derived bitumen cannot be easily transported in its native recovered state, except in heated pipelines or railcars over limited distances. Generally speaking, there are four approaches that can be followed to transport and convert bitumen, which differ based on logistics and infrastructure requirements:
a.
Transport the bitumen by pipeline to a crude oil refinery designed to process heavy crude oil and refine the bitumen with other crude oils to final products. The bitumen on its own is too viscous to be transported by pipeline and it has to be diluted to increase fluidity. The diluents employed are petroleum-derived naphtha and natural gas condensates. A mixture of 25:75 diluent and bitumen can be transported by pipeline and it is called ‘dilbit’, or diluted bitumen [1]. In the winter months the ratio required for sufficient fluidity can be as high as 35:65 diluent to bitumen ratio. The main advantages of producing dilbit is that it can exploit existing heavy oil refining capacity and it requires little additional capital investment at the production site beyond that needed to produce the bitumen. The main disadvantages of this approach are that it reduces pipeline capacity by (25–35) % and it requires a return pipeline for the diluent in order to produce the dilbit.
b.
Partially upgrade the bitumen close to the production site to meet pipeline specifications and then transport the upgraded bitumen by pipeline to a heavy oil refinery to produce final products. Ideally the bitumen can be upgraded at the production site using a field upgrader. Only a limited degree of thermal upgrading (visbreaking) is required to make the bitumen fluid enough to be suitable for pipeline transport. However, the application of field upgrading has thus far been undermined by product stability, which is related to the impracticality of economically producing H2 on small scale, or technology that can address product stability without H2. The main advantage of this approach compared to the production of dilbit is that the upgraded bitumen does not require diluent to be transported. In other respects, it is very similar to dilbit production.
c.
Partially upgrade the bitumen close to the production site to produce a light synthetic crude oil, which can then be transported by pipeline to a conventional oil refinery to produce final products. Bitumen can be transported over short distances and then be upgraded in a centralised large-scale upgrader that is further away from the production site. Centralised upgraders are oil refineries that produce an intermediate product, often called ‘synthetic crude oil’ (SCO). The SCO resembles benchmark crude oils and can be refined in most crude oil refineries designed to refine light crude oils. The main advantages of producing SCO are the higher realisation price versus selling unprocessed bitumen and that the product does not require diluent to be transported by pipeline, thus reducing overall operating costs. A further advantage is that SCO does not have to be processed in heavy crude oil refineries and most existing conventional crude oil refining capacity can be exploited. The main disadvantages of this approach are that centralised upgraders are capital intensive and that the well-to-wheels environmental footprint associated with SCO production, transport and remote refining is larger when compared to single site refining of the bitumen to final products.
d.
Refine bitumen close to the production site to produce final products. This is not an alternative that has thus far been seriously considered or implemented, unless Edmonton is considered as ‘close’ (400 km) to the oilsands production sites. The key difference between upgrading and refining is the nature of the products that are produced and sold. In an upgrader, the product is an upgraded crude oil that is sold to a refinery; in a refinery the products are transport fuels sold to the fuels distribution network. The main advantages of producing final products are that it enables maximum value addition to the feed and the products can be sold in the global transport fuel market. The main disadvantages of producing final products are that the marketing logistics is more complex, and it requires a high capital investment and it does not exploit existing idle refining capacity. Further, it is not clear that the incremental increase in product value can offset the additional capital and operating cost associated with bitumen to final product refining in a new facility

..
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/bitumen

Arky
November 28, 2022 12:11 pm

If they continue down this silly path, I’m afraid the rainbow children worshippers of Mother Earth will spectacularly exceed their expectations of getting close to nature.
Dirt roads, food scarcity and cold, cold rooms.

Lurx
November 28, 2022 12:42 pm

In Australia, as well as the rest of the world (thanks to Socialism) the up and coming peasants will undoubtedly have the same means of transport as does those Cubans.

Carl Marx based his philosophy on that of religion (people control by belief) and was very aware of the irony when he declared that religion was the opium of the masses.

The closest to net zero we will achieve in the next 20 years is the ever increasing amount of space between the ears of our political blunderers.

Louis Litt
Louis Litt
November 28, 2022 1:25 pm

Eyrie
Dowside to the Prius – check out the 2nd hand car market and count the number of Prius for sale at 3 yrs old.
That is when the battery has to be changed.

Speedbox -agreed – Licnes and registrations will be enourmous. Must say after reading your posts I did get the blues.

One thing agaisnt your aguement is the limitations of the physical world. There are not the materials to do so – it jsut is physically impossible.

As the post mentioned here – t here is the dispartiy between puttiing up effective arguements why MMCC is not happening.

What I would like ot know is there going to be a lynch mob for all the individuals and organisations who pushed this.
Laura Tingle vicious and sick lie about the bushfires of two or so yrs ago being Scott Maorrisons fault particilarly comes to mind.

One this I would like to ask the physicist is earth is a net zero equaion. That is if oil is refined and converted to smoke there effect is nil.
I am aware that if oil is close to the surace of the ground it heats up the ground to such an extent that nothing is able to grow on it -eg Azerbejan
If oil floats to the surface then it could catch fire – as the American Indians have said in their stories.

I just cant comprehend the vandalism of people such as Mordy Bromberg – he is probably worshipped – this idea of baosting being useless has to stop. There are not beetter jobs – they are less skilled – eg child care

Speedbox
November 28, 2022 1:45 pm

Old Ozzie and others:

I have always talked about the inevitability, not the desirability or practicality. I 100% agree that Russia will continue to churn out ICE cars well into the future and if I was them, would look to supply places such as Africa, India and South America with ICE vehicles for as long as I could. But we don’t live in Africa, India or South America.

China – their EV production is growing at a stupendous rate although they will almost certainly look to supply some 3rd world countries with ICE cars well past 2050. India can also never meet the transition to EV by 2050. (nor can Indonesia and a few other SE Asian nations).

To be clear, I am not cheering on the transition to EV (or hydrogen). We live in 1st world countries so are bound (because our government acquiesced) to assorted global agreements. Net zero by 2050 is unachievable with ICE cars on our roads and as 1st world nations represent the highest number of cars per capita, we are first ‘off the block’. Remember who the Greens have by the balls and it isn’t the Russians, the Chinese or the Indians.

Toyota (and a few other manufacturers) are right to query whether the transition is achievable in less than three decades. But their hand is being forced as many governments have effectively banned new ICE sales from 2035. At present, no government is wavering and thinking about pushing that out to 2040.

We are doing this to ourselves or perhaps more accurately, are powerless to prevent it being done to us by an uber-powerful Green movement and lobby, a cheering MSM and governments that readily fold.

Here’s a challenge for you – name me one alternative organisation to the global climate change lobby that has the same global reach and influence? One that can count Kings, Presidents and Prime Ministers amongst its billions of supporters. That has the enthusiastic wholesale support of global organisations (not just the UN but the major religions) plus the MSM and a conga line of scientists supporting the proposition that climate change is real and an existential threat to mankind. That has alternative science taught in schools and universities.

We might think climate change is bullshit or at best, grossly overstated with fraudulent or dubious data but that’s not the point. The world is captured. Again, name just one alternative global climate change movement that carries the same clout. Then tell me why I’m wrong about the change to EVs.

Mullumhillbilly
Mullumhillbilly
November 28, 2022 2:28 pm

> not the materials to do so..,

Even if we switch wholesale to nukes and even if we get a breakthrough on aluminum graphene batteries to overcome the lithium ion battery handicaps of low energy density, materials scarcity, safety etc, we don’t have enough copper to produce the motors and rewire the system to carry charging current.
Follow the links through to see more detail of Simon Michaux’s work.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/08/23/is-there-enough-metal-to-replace-oil/

Buccaneer
Buccaneer
November 28, 2022 3:26 pm

Electric cars are awesome, their batteries are not good enough to replace ICE tech. Getting around the battery issue would solve the problem. One way to do this would be to convert every road into a solar electric collector, storage and transmission system in one. The cost to replace every road in this manner would be incredible but it would allow vehicles to run with minimal requirement for batteries and take advantage of the electric motors inherent qualities of better efficiency, lower maintenance and better performance.

Old bloke
Old bloke
November 28, 2022 6:05 pm

Speedbox says:
November 28, 2022 at 1:45 pm

Old Ozzie and others:

I have always talked about the inevitability, not the desirability or practicality. I 100% agree that Russia will continue to churn out ICE cars well into the future and if I was them, would look to supply places such as Africa, India and South America with ICE vehicles for as long as I could. But we don’t live in Africa, India or South America.

China – their EV production is growing at a stupendous rate although they will almost certainly look to supply some 3rd world countries with ICE cars well past 2050. India can also never meet the transition to EV by 2050. (nor can Indonesia and a few other SE Asian nations).

We can draw some comfort from the realisation that this green madness is limited to the USA, Europe, and the Anglosphere countries, i.e., Babylon the Great and its vassal states. The rest of the world has said “get stuffed”, even China though it says pretty things it carries on in its own best interests.

The world is getting fed up with this crap, this proxy war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions and price caps has turned the world away from the West, the formation of the BRICS alliance is the first sign of the downfall of the West.

BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will greatly increase with applications to join coming in from Algiers, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Indonesia and Argentina. This number will grow, they already have more than half the world’s population and most of the manufacturing, and they don’t want the West’s endless wars and green crap.

The world will look different in 2050, even earlier in 2030, and electrical charge points for EVs will be the least of our concerns.

Crossie
Crossie
November 28, 2022 7:51 pm

All coal-power stations demolished. Natural gas development demonised and stymied. There’s batteries! It’s mindboggling. They can’t be serious. We’re being gaslighted, surely? It’s working. Death where is thy sting.

If you are in NSW, euthanasia is now legal. It’s one of two things Gladys bequeathed us, the other is abortion until birth.

Crossie
Crossie
November 28, 2022 8:02 pm

Many years ago hybrids were LPG and petroleum cars due to the high cost of petrol and the LPG being half the price . My uncle had a Ford Fairmont that had both a petrol and an LPG tank. The LPG kicked in only when he hit a certain speed, otherwise the engine used petrol. He found it only used the LPG on weekends when he and my aunt drove out in the country. Less than a year later he got a new all petrol car.

Kneel
Kneel
November 30, 2022 3:53 pm

” The global rush by 1st world countries to ‘net zero by 2050’ means that the internal combustion engine MUST be eradicated from global roads.”

Not so.
You can generate propane from green waste and sewerage, the same as you can generate methane from the same waste – you just need a different bacteria, which we already have.
That means it is completely “sustainable”.
This fuel is nearly identical to petrol in terms of range, ease and time for refueling, energy denisty and is superior in pollution because it is a gas when it is burnt – and less CO2/km as well (if that matters to you).
The price is currently about 90c-100c per litre for auto LPG – that hasn’t changed much over the last year or three, other than the standard season-based cycle (normally slightly more expensive – say 10% or so – during northern hemisphere winter). So you can essentially halve your fuel bill.
And since we already have a large amount of infrastructure in place for its use, and the safety and handling issues are well mature, and further that even quite old petrol engined cars can be converted to use propane (“LPG”), as well as the fact the we have shed-loads of the stuff available via “mining” anyway, we’d be crazy not to make such a change.
Alas, we ARE crazy…

Adelagado
Adelagado
November 30, 2022 8:18 pm

“Cars are no longer manufactured in Australia”.

If GM Adelaide had started building rock solid dual cab and cab chassis utes for the agricultural, mining, and tradies market they would be going gangbusters today. They had everything at their fingertips to do it… and a local market big enough justify it, let alone the export potential. What an an opportunity lost… but they had no desire to actually stay in business over here.

Kneel
Kneel
December 1, 2022 4:25 pm

“If GM Adelaide had started building rock solid dual cab and cab chassis utes for the agricultural, mining, and tradies market they would be going gangbusters today.”

The odd thing to me about GM in Oz, was that for the last Oz made/designed Holdens, they covered the full development cost in local sales, and got “extra” back on overseas sales to the middle east and the UK. On top of that, GM USA got a platform for Corvette and other derivatives that both drivers and auto journalists thought was the best one they ever made, essentially for free. To me, even if they “lost”, say, $100M developing another new platform for Oz, it still would have been cheaper than the USA doing it themselves, and they had a proven design team that produced the kind of ride and handling that the market actually wanted.

  1. Man jailed for raping his wife, who attempted to take her own life twice in aftermath of incidentAnneke de BoerKalgoorlie…

  2. Only a matter of time that the lawyers would be circling. SG have followed the Warsaw convention amounts for compensation…

  3. Let’s cut to the chase: “renewables” were designed to kill the free market and replace it with 19th century subsistence…

  4. If WA MP Wilson Tucker is currently of no fixed address perhaps he should consider his skills suited to one…

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