New Catallaxy

Its the wind droughts, stupid.

Comment on this post.

This demonstrates the outcome of the Iron Triangle of Power Supply and the corollary, that wind and solar will not work with existing technology. There must be continuous input to the grid, wind droughts and especially windless nights wreck the continuity and there is no feasible storage to bridge the gaps.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/02/the-iron-triangle-of-energy-realism/
To coin a phrase, “Its about the wind droughts, stupid!”

Imagine irrigation projects proceeding without attention to the record of droughts and the capacity of dams to make up the shortfall in dry seasons. What happened to the due diligence in Australia and everywhere else?

In Australia it seems that the authorities used average wind speed as the metric for wind resources, with hourly records aggregated for weeks, months and years. There should be a major inquiry into the reason why that information in raw form was not processed to issue wind drought warnings. It was left to others, notably Paul Miskelly and Anton Lang, to record wind droughts, long before the responsible or irresponsible authorities took any notice.

https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/11/the-voice-of-energy-realism/

Climate and energy realists around the world need to demand investigations in their own jurisdictions to find why no wind drought warnings were issued, or heeded.

The Dunkelflauts in Europe must have been common knowledge among sailors for hundreds of years, and windmills in Holland pumped water, while windmills everywhere milled grain. So how come the shock in recent years?

In Australia when the next coal power station closes, every wind drought will threaten the power supply and prolonged wind droughts will be potentially catastrophic.
https://spectator.com.au/2022/07/energy-policy-where-parallel-universes-are-set-to-collide/

That is the way things are going everywhere, it is just a matter of running down conventional power to the point where wind input starts to matter.

Rafe Champion

15 responses to “Its the wind droughts, stupid.”

  1. MatrixTransform Avatar
    MatrixTransform

    used average wind speed as the metric for wind resources

    once,
    when I had more energy and time
    using average water depth allowed me to bicycle from Perth to Auckland

    true story

    10
  2. Shy Ted Avatar
    Shy Ted

    As if by magic, today –

    National Press Club Address Dr Kerry Schott – Chair of the Carbon Market Institute 12:30PM – 1:30PM
    Dr Kerry Schott, Chair of the Carbon Market Institute, addresses the National Press Club on the topic The Safeguard Mechanism and Navigating Australia’s Path to Net Zero.

  3. Roger Avatar
    Roger

    What happened to the due diligence in Australia…

    Banished together with competence and accountability.

    And that’s not just in the area of climate science and renewable energy.

    5
  4. Shy Ted Avatar
    Shy Ted

    Kerry Schott looks and sounds like someone’ grandma in the early stages of Alzheimers.

    4
  5. Christine Avatar
    Christine

    Kerry Schott
    Not much effort has ever been made; very poor general grooming, to be charitable

    To be uncharitable, she’s awful and I don’t want to hear her speak.

    3
  6. mem Avatar
    mem

    This post includes a Tucker Carlson clip where he cites the major doom and gloom climate prognoses that have come and gone like the wind.
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/03/new_york_times_beclowns_itself_with_its_latest_prediction_of_climate_doom.html

    1
  7. mem Avatar
    mem

    At 9.15pm EST today 21/3/2023 only 9% wind and no solar into the whole eastern grid. Why? Because the wind isn’t blowing and the sun has gone down. Lots of turbines not operational and panels not clicking in. Our electricity is therefore primarily coming from coal 68% with support from gas and Hydro from Tas. What happens when the coal fired plants are closed down? Yes I would like to know and I’m sure many other people around Australia are starting to ask the same question. Where is the contingency plan!

    1
  8. Siltstone Avatar
    Siltstone

    Where is the contingency plan?
    There isn’t one.

    2
  9. Zipster Avatar
    Zipster

    Imagine irrigation projects proceeding without attention to the record of droughts and the capacity of dams to make up the shortfall in dry seasons. What happened to the due diligence in Australia and everywhere else?

    power outages are a feature not a bug

    4
  10. Bar Beach Swimmer Avatar
    Bar Beach Swimmer

    There should be a major inquiry into the reason why that information in raw form was not processed to issue wind drought warnings.

    Rafe, politicians and OPM.

    1
  11. Bruce Avatar
    Bruce

    Somewhat OT:

    Latest phone scam doing the rounds is a Robo-Call to the effect that the callee has a large Visa OR Mastercard payment for goods and / services that needs “verification”. Nicely voiced by a female voice with an Australian accent. . Caller ID switched OFF. (Not that it makes much difference, NONE of these scumbags use REAL Caller ID, because the calls are “automated”, they generate their own BOGUS ID, if they can be bothered.

    These mongrels only have to “get lucky” one percent of the time and they will be winning.

    Conan the Barbarian had the right idea:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XUu3_pLPUE

  12. Shy Ted Avatar
    Shy Ted

    Mad granny Schott, in her NPC address, said she wanted to use satellites, drones and low flying aircraft to monitor carbon emissions to make sure no one’s cheating. She has 2 BAs and once worked for Turnbull Whitlam. I suspect she was recruited to fulfill the mad granny quota.

    3
  13. Louis Litt Avatar
    Louis Litt

    Rafe – does the energy density came in to play. As I understand it wind and solar are 1/1000 of coal.
    Is this a bigger issue than the draughty.
    Secondly the use of materials to accomodate solar and wind – it’s a lot more than building a coal power station.

    1
  14. Rafe Champion Avatar
    Rafe Champion

    Louis I am not so concerned about energy density because wind droughts are the fatal flow that will sink the RE system long before energy density really matters.

    2
  15. Robert Sewell Avatar
    Robert Sewell

    mem:

    Yes I would like to know and I’m sure many other people around Australia are starting to ask the same question. Where is the contingency plan!

    In response, mem, I’d like to point out the entire AGW scenario was about frightening people into supporting projects that could be scammed. Power generation was not a priority and neither was a stable grid. In fact the entire program was about an excuse to make power too expensive for the great mass of people.
    You don’t think so? Then what will replace the cheap coal fired power stations which are being demolished even though they are vital to our economy?
    That’s right – blackouts.
    And that was the plan all along. Not to ‘save the planet’ but to create a new Serf Class.

    2

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