Open Thread – Thurs 10 Aug 2023
1,092 responses to “Open Thread – Thurs 10 Aug 2023”
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My eldest son was conceived that night with the Big Prawns blessing.
Could be worse. No one would ever want to be conceived because of the Dog On Tuckerbox. How could you live that down? The Big Sheep would be an also ran.
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hahahahaha
The scrawl on the video reckons it’s a social experiment to see what happens if a couple of gals are holding hands pretending to be lezzos walking NYC streets.
It’s about 95% black dudes either gawking at them or throwing smart alec barbs their way.
https://twitter.com/AngelaBelcamino/status/1689779074909057024
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“But, is there anything in his world better than tea and scones (butter and jam) in the afternoon. “
Nothing better. At my work, our corporate kitchen sometimes make scones for various departments, always served with whipped cream and strawberry jam they make on the premises. Everyone rushes for the floor kitchen when the scones come out.
About twice a year, my sister and I take Mum for High Tea in the QVB Tea Room here in Sydney’s CBD. We love it, we quaff champers and eat freshly made scones, little sandwiches and petit fours……scrummo!
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I think this sums up the storyteller’s imagination.
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Jason Riley – African American opinion writer for the WSJ, explains to the WSJ readership what the Squeal is about.
Australia Asks Voters to Expand a Racial Welfare State
The referendum to give indigenous people a special ‘voice’ would only worsen disparities.By Jason L. Riley
The social-justice debate that has been roiling our politics in recent years is hardly unique to the U.S. At an academic conference in the U.K. this year, I heard all the same references to “systemic racism,” “unconscious bias” and “white privilege” that now dot our stateside discussions. The only difference was the accents.
Turns out, these conversations are taking place not only on the other side of the Atlantic but also on the other side of the world. You can’t visit Australia these days without hearing about the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum. After Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, leader of the center-left Labor Party, was elected last year, he promised to push for a ballot initiative amending the constitution to give indigenous Australians—and only them—a special “voice to parliament.” In June a law that would alter the constitution was approved by the Parliament, triggering a nationwide vote due to be held before the end of the year.
It’s difficult not to sympathize with the socioeconomic plight of aboriginal Australians. A 2016 report by the Australian Broadcasting Corp., the state news agency, noted that suicide rates in some indigenous communities are “among the worst in the world.” In one West Australian community 80% of the 125 suicides were indigenous people. Seventy-one percent of them were men, more than half of whom were under 30 and more than a quarter of whom were teenagers.
Aboriginal Australians are only about 3% of the country’s inhabitants yet are roughly 15% of its homicide victims and more than a quarter of its prison inmates. Writing in the current issue of Quadrant, an Australian monthly, Peter Purcell noted that in far too many aboriginal communities, domestic violence and child abuse are endemic. “Adult fighting among both men and women is common, as are clashes between families armed with machetes, crowbars and bats,” he wrote. “Daylight home invasions, vehicle theft, property damage and physical violence are the daily experience for townspeople.” In Alice Springs, in the Northern Territory that is home to the highest proportion of indigenous residents in the country, children as young as 5 can be found roaming the streets at night, “many drinking alcohol—including hand sanitizer—in soft drinks, or sniffing glue or petrol.”
The dozens of indigenous and non-indigenous Australians I spoke with during my weeklong visit weren’t indifferent to or unaware of these horrors. Still, the Voice referendum, based on current polling, is expected to fail, and some are now calling for Mr. Albanese to abandon the effort. Proponents must garner a majority of the total vote nationwide and a majority of the vote in four of the country’s six states. Earlier this year, it looked as if support would be relatively strong and bipartisan, but July surveys showed that enthusiasm among Labor and opposition voters alike had faded.
Part of the problem is the studied vagueness of the referendum’s language, which gives the impression that Mr. Albanese and his allies have something to hide. Australia already has an indigenous affairs minister, and aboriginal Australians won the right to vote in 1962. What, precisely, does enshrining an indigenous voice to Parliament in the constitution mean in practice? How can the government give a special voice to one racial group without necessarily diminishing other voices? Indian-Australians are the fastest-growing minority. Do they deserve constitutionally embedded special rights as well?
Supporters of the referendum can’t or won’t answer these questions. They say the details will be fleshed out at some future date and accuse skeptics of having ulterior motives. “While it is not true to say that every Australian who votes No in the Voice referendum is a racist,” said veteran Australian journalist Niki Savva, “you can bet your bottom dollar that every racist will vote No.”
Advocates speak of “historical injustices” and “reconciliation” with the same frequency and fervor of black and Native American activists in the U.S., but much of the harm being done to these communities is self-inflicted. In his essay, Mr. Purcell wrote that some 70% of aboriginal Australians in jail “are there for crimes of violence against their loved ones.” For many in the No camp, it’s not clear how a successful referendum would help close the gap in outcomes between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians.
Australia already spends billions of dollars annually on indigenous welfare programs. If a greater “voice” for the indigenous population simply translates into more government lucre for politically connected tribal elders and aboriginal elites in urban areas—which is the track record of racial preferences for minorities in countries all over the world—the result may well be wider social and economic disparities for everyday indigenous Australians. Worse, it will further subsidize antisocial behavior and thereby retard the development of attitudes, habits and skills that facilitate upward mobility.
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For the interest of any who believe woke is weak in NQ here is the flight departures board at Cairns airport.
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After Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, leader of the center-left Labor Party, was elected last year, he promised to push for a ballot initiative amending the constitution to give indigenous Australians—and only them—a special “voice to parliament.”
Well, from where I am sitting, he is so far left he will be left back in the dressing room.
This person is a Marxist. As red as they come. He despises the Market Economy that has provided he and Australia with riches. He is a Traitor. Full stop.
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Oozing bonhomie? Lets hope it’s well researched bonhomie. I am glad it is just Friday nite bonhomie. Re the Big Banana, Bruce we only used it this trip as a guide for when to turn right to ‘the resorts’ area. Haven’t been near it since the kids were small, when we dutifully visited. At that time the hills around Coffs were surrounded by banana plantations, my Big Sis lived on one for a while up round that way, and my main memory of visiting her is that the mosquitos were ferocious enough to carry you away when they dive bombed in a fleet. Coffs now is somewhere we only use as a pit stop on the way to Queensland, as it is so busy and overcrowded now.
Love the TV up this way. The regions get Sky After Dark for free, and how good is that? Otherwise they’d be reliant on woke free to air. We’ve watched Rita, before heading off into a dark roadway to walk to dinner, and the US Report followed by the Media Show just now. We have been very taken with a TV ad for a mobile chicken caravan, an egg laying cage on wheels you can move around. Essential for every home. Only in Australia, lol.
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Knuckle Dragger
Aug 11, 2023 9:25 PM
Yes and it can if it wants too.Thought you were big on the English language.
A few Pimms No.1 Cups under the belt, I reckon.
As you don’t like English and love the French then piss over there and speak french you Tosser. No loss here. I like Australian red wine. You can stick your Pimms up your back passage. R sole.
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Re TV pics of those wildfires down to the coast in Maui. They show suburbs burned out. We’ve driven through that area and I noted at the time the build up of vegetation. It worries me with regard to Sydney’s western suburbs. It’s hot out there when the winds roar in. In aboriginal times these areas were parklands, deliberately burned out to be open grasslands. When I was a girl there were still a lot of open grasslands. Now there are estates everywhere and trees overload the landscape, providing a series of ready made candles acting as conduits for sending fire throughout these suburbs.
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This fight thing appears to be real and it’s could possibly be held somewhere like a surrounding area of the coliseum or similar, in Rome. Musk is one crazy fcuk, and apparently has some serious spinal problems, but boy I hope he beats the living shit out of Fcukerberg.
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
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2m
The fight will be managed by my and Zuck’s foundations (not UFC).Livestream will be on this platform and Meta. Everything in camera frame will be ancient Rome, so nothing modern at all.
I spoke to the PM of Italy and Minister of Culture. They have agreed on an epic location.
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Razey
Aug 11, 2023 9:15 PM
Delta A
Aug 11, 2023 9:06 PM
This place is fairly oozing bonhomie tonight.Is this the calm before the storm?
End of Western Civ. Let’s party like its 1999.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblt2EtFfC4
LOL.
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As I’ve said here, Peter Purcell’s articles on indigenous issues are worth their weight in gold. Good to see the Wall Street Journal quoting them, and recognizing Quadrant as the source, to make some sensible conclusions after detailing information about some of the problems that the Voice will do nothing to fix. We need more international analysis of this sort on the Voice, which help to explain why so many Australians are opposed to it.
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Rosie
Aug 11, 2023 9:45 PM
Just have to point out that the assisted migrant program UK to Australia ended in 1982, I knew someone that came out under the scheme in 1980.In which case I want my money back and I want to know their name/phone number/TFN/Medicare Number, etc, etc, etc.
LOL. I fink’ that you are not correct BTW.
And your name is? BS?
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Drove up Footscray Rd for the first time in forever today.
What’s the double decker road for?
I thought they were building a tunnel.
Skirting around the northern part of the CBD one should be forgiven for thinking you had accidentally teleporting to a foreign land.
Ditto for the Melbourne University graduation ceremonies being held at the Exhibition Buildings, everyone with gowns, mortar boards and big bunches of flowers.
My daughter’s Melbourne uni graduation a few years ago was on campus, very dull, I cricked my neck surreptitiously playing angry birds. -
An estimated quarter of British migrants returned to the UK within the qualifying period; however, half of these—the so-called “Boomerang Poms”—returned to Australia
T
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I must admit I stand corrected, But I paid full fare. A lot more than 10 pounds. More like 560 pounds one way and money well spent.
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This extensive resort must be saving on electricity. It’s a few hundred metres walk down to the restaurant and bar, and we had to do it in the almost dark. I am clinging on to Hairy as we stumble down the roadway, he’s wearing dark clothes and I’m glad I am in light Barbie pink, hence visible in the gloom to any oncoming vehicle. The only thing that could make this worse would be tigers, I say, reprising the Cameron Highlands of Malaysia. Even mentioning them gave me the willies about all of the shapes in the bushes. Will we be robbed, I imagine, from loonies awaiting just such an opportunity and me so visible. I am very easily influenced by my own scary thoughts. Luckily Hairy is used to them and lets me hang on tight to him. Maybe he even enjoys it. 🙂
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This is what TDS looks like on the streets.
I saw this idiot in the same garb on 5th near Trump Tower.
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Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Aug 11, 2023 9:35 PM
Re TV pics of those wildfires down to the coast in Maui. They show suburbs burned out. We’ve driven through that area and I noted at the time the build up of vegetation. It worries me with regard to Sydney’s western suburbs. It’s hot out there when the winds roar in. In aboriginal times these areas were parklands, deliberately burned out to be open grasslands. When I was a girl there were still a lot of open grasslands. Now there are estates everywhere and trees overload the landscape, providing a series of ready made candles acting as conduits for sending fire throughout these suburbs.Not too sure about that. There was something called the Cumberland Forest I do believe.
And how come every fire now is called a wild fire?
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About twice a year, my sister and I take Mum for High Tea in the QVB Tea Room here in Sydney’s CBD
High tea at the Raffles in Singapore, or the Peninsular in Hong Kong is the last word in colonial decadence….
We’re booked on Cunard next year (against my wishes). Let’s see how their daily “high tea” fares.
Oh, Lord … where’s the bar??
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We’re booked on Cunard next year (against my wishes). Let’s see how their daily “high tea” fares.
Held in the Queen’s Room of the Queen Mary during ‘the crossing’ from New York to Southampton, it was pretty good, and quite acceptable on the other two Cunard Queen’s we’ve sampled.
It had a more authentic sense of the old Imperialism though in the Cameron Highlands of Malaysia in one of their old hotels. Especially when we learned that tigers did actually prowl around the golf course still. It was just over the road from us and we did walk all the way around it. Saw some photographs of a recent sighting, and that really was a very large and magnificent cat, still living wild.
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You don’t like the English
Of course I do. You just can’t speak it. What are we to make of this (lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels)?
A few nights ago Rory’s Roger iron rusted, so he has gone to the
battle-cruiser to watch the end of a football game. Nobody is watching
the custard so he has turned the channel over. A fat man’s north opens
and he wanders up and turns the Liza over. `Now f*ck off and watch it
somewhere else.’Rory knows claret is imminent, but he doesn’t want to
miss the end of the game; so, calm as a coma, he stands and picks up a
fire extinguisher and he walks straight past the jam rolls who are
ready for action, then he plonks it outside the entrance. He then
orders an Aristotle of the most ping pong oddly in the nuclear sub and
switches back to his footer.`That’s f*cking it,’ says the man. Rory
gobs out a mouthful of booze covering fatty; he flicks a flaming match
into his bird’s nest and the man lit up like a leaking gas pipe.Incomprehensible Eurotrash bilge, and typical of the species.
The only thing missing was the national dish, the chicken tikka.
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Cats – time for some blundering on in of the aesthetically pleasing kind, given the unrelenting staggering stupidity and ugleeness of modern life.
An Absolute Glamazon. Slinky as. Just look at that mischievous li’l smile in the 2nd pic.
As a lifelong minimalist, I knows it when I sees it … 🙂
And to those sanctimonious Wallies* who might get all het up about supposed alleged skinneeness, I don’t give a rodent’s …
*You know who you are, Nurse B
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Alamak!
Aug 11, 2023 10:14 PMJC> thought it was kinda obv but the GFC in 2008 was triggered by an asset bubble in USA real estate markets. Working for a big USA bank at the time there were a few OMG moments where I’d take a bunch of cash out from ATMs just in case
It’s not that obvious. In fact, it’s a myth to suggest the GFC was triggered by hefty real estate markets. Two markets, Inland Empire in California and Vegas presented problems but not so the vast bulk of the US.
Here’s the St Lious Fed data on median prices. There was a slight elevation from around 2005, but it wasn’t steep and certainly not as steep as what’s occurred over the last 3 or so years. (2020-2023) Take another look at the chart.
That’s not to say housing didn’t impact the banking system. On it’s own, it would’ve caused a recession, but not a crisis.
This crisis was a consequence of central bank action mistaking a change in relative prices for inflation. The developing world placed a great deal of pressure on commodity prices from about 2002 onward and the CBs in the developed world tightened and tightened monetary policy until it shook the financial system to its foundations. Then, even when the writing was on the wall, they firstly continued to hike and then eased too slowly until it was too late. Banking system is by its nature a leveraged sector and can’t endure that level of stress.
Yes, I took out cash too and now will always keep a small load of cash just in case.
I don’t believe there are bubbles. Bubbles are more correctly described as price discovery by markets. These days, everything is described as a bubble if prices are going higher. It’s bullshit.
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Hey, Kendall J!
I want a love like …
Me thinking of you, thinking of me, thinking of you type love … 🙂 -
JC> I never stooped that low(“Citi”). BOA was my employer at that time and ML before that
Not agreeing to your theory, though its interesting. Central banks printed oodles of cash to help with any bailout/merger/takeover that was suggested(“AIG”, …) and CB rates also don’t help much when Repo markets are frozen and USA corporates running out of actual cash.
Fun times, whatever the causes and hopefully not to be repeated.
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I don’t believe there are bubbles. Bubbles are more correctly described as price discovery by markets. These days, everything is described as a bubble if prices are going higher. It’s bullshit.
Of course there are bubbles but Central Banks can’t see them as they have blinkers on. The smart money has already moved on as they are in the know. The punters get screwed and fleeced as they are the sheep.
The price discovery is after the horse has bolted and the so called authorities turn up to shut the gate. Way too late. QED.
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Cash!
—
woof bark growl:
Cash 2.0 Great Dane at the LAPD National Night Out in Northridge Park 2023 (1 of 2)
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JC> I never stooped that low(“Citi”). BOA was my employer at that time and ML before that
Okay. I bought a load of BoA stock from 15 bucks down to just about 5 bucks. I still have them even though the stock hit 50 and change about a 1 1/2 years ago. I was shitting myself when it was 5 though. I think it’s heading to 70
in a few years time.Fear and greed. I didn’t sell at 50 because of the cap gain theft.
I was offered a job with BofA in the late 90s but didn’t take it. It was beneath me when working for Credit Suisse. 🙂 Didn’t want to live in HK either.
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Speaking of whinging poms
Whoa lads! Salty Cracker vs a Seinfeldesque Lesbian British Kween Kop
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Incomprehensible Eurotrash bilge, and typical of the species.
The only thing missing was the national dish, the chicken tikka.
Not a bad species to settle on the Great Southern Land. And to speak English as well. Roast beef with Yorkshire pudding would have been the fare of the day, Chicken tikka came later when you let the Indians in here. And the Chinese and everyone else.
How does it feel to be a minority in your own country? Now I can see why you get so angry with yourself. I can put you in touch with a good analyst if it might help. LOL.
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Johnny Rotten.
Both have been banned from the joint.
Great Dane and a horse inside a shopping mall (4k)
Wankers!
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Bubbles shubbles
“Bubbles,” cognitive illusions, and the peso problem
Let’s suppose that every once in a while an asset comes along that is extremely difficult to value. It might have an extraordinarily high value, or much more likely it will soon be worthless. One example might be a dotcom company (or mobile apps, if that’s the 21at century equivalent.) Another example might be Bitcoin.How should Bitcoin be priced? If there is a 95% chance that it will soon be worthless and a 5% chance that it will soon hit $1000, then $30 seems like a relatively fair price. That allows for a substantial expected gain ($50 minus interest costs would be the risk-neutral price.) But Bitcoin is very risky, so investors need to be compensated with an above average expected rate of return.
Now consider a point in time where the asset is selling at $30, and investors have not yet discovered whether it will eventually reach $1000. Should you predict that the price is a bubble? Yes and no. It is likely to eventually look like it was a bubble at $30. Indeed 95% of such assets will eventually see their price collapse. That’s “statistically significant.” It’s also significant in a sociological sense. Those that call “bubble” when the price is at $30 will be right 95% of the time, and hence will be seen as having the “correct model” of bubbles by the vast majority of people. Those who denied bubble will be wrong 95% of the time, and will be seen as being hopelessly naive by the average person. And this is despite the fact that in all these cases there is no bubble, as by construction I assumed the EMH was exactly true.
This post is motivated by earlier predictions that suggested Bitcoins were a bubble at $30, and hinted it might be a bubble at $2. I predict that eventually the price of Bitcoins will fall sharply (from some level of which I am not able to predict) and people will vaguely recall:
“Wasn’t Scott Sumner the guy who denied Bitcoins was a bubble? What an idiot.”
Defending the EMH is a lonely crusade that can only end in tears and ridicule, unless you are Eugene Fama, in which case it ends in a Nobel Prize and ridicule. And I’m not Fama.
And yet the EMH is true . . . er, truish in the Richard Rorty sense.
PS. The hidden agenda of this post is that spectacular price increases after incorrect bubble calls should count heavily against the bubble model, indeed roughly 20 times as heavily as a correct call in the case above. Don’t look for reputations to be adjusted according to this metric. Markets may be rational, but the assignment of scientific prestige in bubble theory is highly irrational.
PPS. Of course many bubble proponents like Cowen and Krugman and Shiller deserve their high academic reputation, but for reasons unrelated to bubble analysis.
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Steve trickler
Aug 11, 2023 11:38 PM
Johnny Rotten.Both have been banned from the joint.
Great Dane and a horse inside a shopping mall (4k)
Wankers!
Gordon Bennett and that is amazing. I was joking about the Shetland Pony bit earlier. But not now.
Why ban them? Are the Yanks scared of animals? Pussies.
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JC> weakness of the “pure” EMH is that information on assets does not spread everywhere with the same speed or understanding. Leaves plenty of room for markets to be “wrong” while everybody catches up on relevant news about an asset and what the news means.
CS were known to have cr.appy systems and loose risk management years ago. Like DB, a bunch of provincials trying to run a global IB will always end in tear. BOA shares will do well while Moynihan runs the shop, he’s done a good job.
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JC> weakness of the “pure” EMH is that information on assets does not spread everywhere with the same speed or understanding. Leaves plenty of room for markets to be “wrong” while everybody catches up on relevant news about an asset and what the news means.
Financial markets are the most liquid and information rich of any. Information is instant.
CS were known to have cr.appy systems and loose risk management years ago. Like DB, a bunch of provincials trying to run a global IB will always end in tear. BOA shares will do well while Moynihan runs the shop, he’s done a good job.
NY ran the investment bank and did okay in the 90s and up to 2012. I don’t know and cannot understand what happened to them .UBS has a great deal on the private bank side.
I’m long the stock and think it will have a gear run up.
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I’m dragging Volume 2 of Ian Kershaw’s biography of Hitler around the world with me. Excellent book. Read Vol 1 years back – it goes up to 1936 – so re-read it before leaving Oz and brought V2 (pun there!) along.
One of the crazier schemes for doing away with the Jews was to ship them all to Madagascar, the French not being in a condition to object in 1940, and leave them there. All 15 million of them.
Didn’t happen, as we all know, but a strange snippet of history.
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