Israel’s potential response to Hamas


The events of October 7 were terrible with a brutality and viciousness rarely witnessed.  The subsequent rallies in support of Palestine were littered with antisemitic chanting and the MSM have encouraged Israeli ‘restraint’ whilst showing pictures of Gaza residents, especially children, in hospital.  Incredibly, some of the footage is accompanied by a Hamas spokesperson commenting on the lack of medical supplies (seen on SBS).  Many western leaders have commented that Israel has an absolute right to defend itself whilst urging a ‘measured’ response.  

Hamas has drip-fed hostages (four to date of approximately 200) back to Israel at the apparent urging of the Saudi and Qatari governments (which is almost ironic given who has been financially supporting Hamas).  Meanwhile, Israel massed some 350,000+ additional military with the firm intention of launching a ground offensive into Gaza and finishing off Hamas once and for all.   

There have been a litany of events or comments in Australia and overseas that chill our blood in the overt support of “the Palestinian cause” and even some emergent support of Hamas.  I never imagined I would ever hear, under any circumstances, anybody chant “gas the Jews” – but we live in disturbing times.   Even Local Government has shown itself to be willing to dive into international affairs.  Precious few seem to have any awareness of previous efforts to establish peace between Israel and the Palestinians – or choose to ignore it.   Since 2001, rocket and mortar attacks on Israel have numbered in the hundreds or thousands every year.  Yet everyone from the Sydney Lord Mayor to the Secretary General of the United Nations appears to suffer selective amnesia.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained something of a balancing act in the past three weeks.  He is driven by a powerful requirement to protect Israel and avenge the ruthless slaughter of 1400 men, women and children.  He must also send an unmistakable message that Israel will extract a huge price against those who dare to attack her.  And whilst his generals plan the military response, Netanyahu consoles families of the victims and remains hopeful that more hostages can be recovered.

Netanyahu has also been under pressure by world leaders to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza but he knows that many so-called civilians are fully supportive of Hamas.  “From the rivers to the sea” is not some idle chant.  If there are, in fact, forty kilometers of Hamas tunnels under Gaza, that will be an especially formidable undertaking for the Israeli military. 

Until recently. Israeli military action has been largely confined to the Israeli Air Force selectively targeting Hamas command and control centres in addition to responding to periodic rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank.  Syrian airports have also been pre-emptively hit.  It now appears that the next stage of the Israeli response in Gaza has commenced or is imminent.

A few days ago, our own Dover used the term Axis of Resistance referring to those forces that could join with Hamas such as Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi Shia militias, Yemeni Houthi and Iran.  Other potential participants included Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey.  

At first pass, it seems very unlikely that most of Israel’s neighbours would openly engage Israel.  In part, this may be due to two US carrier battle groups loitering in the Eastern Mediterranean but mainly the immediate and potentially irreparable damage to relations between the US and Saudi Arabia and Turkey especially, but also Jordan and even Egypt.  Syria could not act in isolation.

If Saudi was openly at war with Israel, American actions to ensure global oil supplies has grave implications for the Saudis.  As much as Saudi may sympathize with their Islamic brethren, some things are just more important.  Like Saudi maintaining its money, lifestyle and sovereignty.  Agreements and alliances are fine, but never underestimate personal and national self-interest.

As for Turkey and Jordan, it’s hard to imagine any scenario that would justify their direct engagement as a nation state as the economic, military and global fallout would be epic.  If nothing else, Turkey is a member of NATO, however sometimes recalcitrant, and Jordan won’t want to get involved because they’re not foolish.  Ditto for Egypt.  

As much as Iran likes to rattle their saber, and as lunatic as the Mullahs may be, they cannot be so absurdly naive to not expect a full-throated response from both Israel and the United States should Iran decide to act as a nation state and attack Israel.  

Ditto with Iran’s oft stated threat to mine the Straits of Hormuz.  This would be interpreted as an act of war as global economies reel at the oil-price shock and the Americans, likely supported by a coalition of other nations, would respond to restore and secure oil supplies.  If Iran attacked the mine sweeping operations, the US response would be withering.

Iran is allies with both Russia and China, but neither will risk everything, and I mean everything, to support Iran and go to war with the west over a Hamas initiated action in Israel. 

Therefore, allowing that Hamas are bloodthirsty terrorists, it is likely that even the dimmest member must have considered Israel’s probable response.  How did Hamas intend to fight off an enraged Israel?

Perhaps Hamas envisaged a great uprising of terrorist groups to defeat Israel?  That even if others did not, Iran and Syria would throw their (covert) support behind Hamas, Hezbollah and others?  The Hamas preparations for the assault were months in the making – did Hamas envisage that the chant “from the rivers to the sea” would ultimately be possible?  A final solution, so to speak.  Or, was this all about scuttling the Saudi – Israel talks and leveraging the release of the Hamas brethren from Israeli prisons?  All of the above?

As expected, the inevitable has now happened and Hamas are offering to release the hostages in return for the release of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails and, a ceasefire.  At a minimum, a ceasefire would be interpreted, by Hamas at least, as a partial victory.  The release of thousands of Hamas fighters back into the arms of their comrades would cement the perception of victory whilst humbling Israel’s much vaunted military capacity.  That the Hamas attack even occurred is already a major slap to Israel’s intelligence community.

Netanyahu knows the importance of hostage recovery to his country but he is in a difficult position.  A ground invasion of Gaza will likely mean the immediate murder by Hamas of any remaining hostages – and probably livestreamed.  What will be the reaction of the Israeli public?  Is the price of destroying Hamas 200 more Israeli innocents?  What a ghastly decision. Gaza is a tiny strip of land that has been quarantined and, because of Hamas, has incurred the righteous wrath of Israel.  We can be certain that Israel wants to extract revenge no matter who Hamas thinks they can rely upon, but Israel also wants the hostages back.  We will soon find out whether Israel will pay the price demanded by Hamas before it undertakes a military response.


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Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
October 30, 2023 10:03 am

This is the sort of unmitigated rubbish, that readers of the “West Australian” endure, passed off as readers comments

Mourn them as you rightly should. But add a moral equivalence to this whole sorry mess. For every single person you mourn there will be over a hundred innocent Palestinian men women and children killed at the hands of a brutal IDF. And scores more injured maimed and scarred for life. If you want to read the names of those brutally killed , then you will spend months reading the names of children killed and maimed at the hands of the IDF. And don’t fool yourself that Hamas is an existential threat to Israel. It never was and never will be. Their actions can’t be excused but this is vengeance pure and simple with one indefensible act responded to on a massive and obliterating scale with civilians the casualty of your bloodthirsty call to arms.

Israelis be ashamed of your Govts response. The IDF are no less and actually far worse war criminals than Hamas as they have been acting as war criminals for decades against innocents.

MatrixTransform
October 30, 2023 10:24 am

Hamas are offering to release the hostages in return for the release of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails and, a ceasefire.

do it

do it today

then cut the head off the snake tomorrow

Makka
Makka
October 30, 2023 10:26 am

I can’t see any Arab nation in the region taking on Israel over Gaza, the Palestinians and Hamas. A few demonstrative shots fired maybe but nothing of a military nature. The costs would be far too great for what pitiful propaganda reward may be won.

Iran is the wildcard. When the IDF do make their move in full force into Gaza, the Iranians won’t join directly but I would not put it past them to activate terror cells globally. I’ve wondered if the fear of this terrorism hasn’t played into various Govts soft pedaling on the pro-Palestine marches we have been seeing. Trying not to invite a terrorist response in the future?

Much will depend I think on the nature of the IDF’s expedition into Gaza. They must root out and destroy Hamas. Completely. But we know Palliwood will be ever ready to portray their bs narrative of victimhood. So we await to see exactly how the IDF conduct their Gazan ops , knowing the terrible choices being faced with so many hostages in the balance.

How to effectively neutralize Iran remains the primary challenge in the ME. As we have seen, Iran has infiltrated the highest offices in the USG so they aren’t without resources and resourcefulness.

Muddy
Muddy
October 30, 2023 11:09 am

I have several random thoughts:

I initially wondered if the germ of the 7 Oct slaughter came from an internal questioning (within like-minded but perhaps competitive psychopaths in the region, including sponsors and applicants for that sponsorship) of h@m@s’s capacity and willingness to strike the ‘enemy.’ Were there grumblings that h@m@s was not hard enough, and that it was time for new, more radical groups to rise, both in terms of status and the acquisition of resources? If there is some credibility in this hypothesis – that h@m@s needed to prove itself – then arguably, they have already achieved their ‘victory state,’ regardless of what happens militarily. They have achieved massive international publicity for their ’cause’ and many of their shot-callers – especially those living in comfort in overseas countries – will remain alive for a few years at least.

Last night I posited that if h@m@s has initiated a hostage exchange, they must be requiring time for something, but what?

I still wonder if a small number of hostages have been slipped out of g@z@ – though I don’t know if that is possible? – as extra insurance. To where, I cannot guess. If you had the opportunity, though, why keep your prizes in the one location (albeit dispersed)?

To repeat what I’m written several times: HMS is the acronym for their Ar@bic title, but that acronym was overlaid with the word for ‘zeal’ or courage, thus: h@m@s. Every time you use the correct spelling of their name, you are saying, in Arabic: ‘this is courage.’ You are praising these reptiles, regardless of what you think in your head. Propaganda works via dissemination.

Katzenjammer
Katzenjammer
October 30, 2023 11:30 am

It took a few years of hijacking planes and ships before Arafat was rewarded as the guest of honour at the UN. Hamas was almost immediately rewarded by hundreds of thousands in country after country massing in celebration of their achievement. If Israel doesn’t totally wipe out Hamas what will Israel have to endure next.

Kneel
Kneel
October 30, 2023 12:29 pm

“do it

do it today

then cut the head off the snake tomorrow”

yep – hamarse would and have happily lied about cease-fires before, so screw them.
Agree to what they want, get hostages back, then level the joint and salt the earth.

duncanm
duncanm
October 30, 2023 1:02 pm

MatrixTransform
Oct 30, 2023 10:24 AM
Hamas are offering to release the hostages in return for the release of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails and, a ceasefire.

do it

do it today

then cut the head off the snake tomorrow

pity they can’t put tracking devices in every one – then release them back to Hamas and shortly thereafter, drop a munition on their head.

Fair Shake
Fair Shake
October 30, 2023 2:27 pm

Brutal it may be, I’m thinking Bibi will move to wipe Hamas out. Unfortunately the 200 hostages will either be rescued or become collateral damage. God knows what living hell they have endured to date. To accept terms from Hamas is not a palatable option. It will embolden Hamas to go even harder next time – 10 year, 20, 30 years. Evil will play the long game. There is a narrow window for the IDF to go full retard on Hamas with support of some Western countries…although I doubt Bibi holds much store in Western societies fickle support.

Personally I would chain saw back the larger vegetation. Then stump grind the rest. Poison the surface weeds. Drill down and poison subterranean roots (example bamboo). Wait until no sign of life. Plough it into the ground. Poison again. Plant trip wires and sensory equipment. Napalm regularly. Enjoy the serenity. Follow me for more gardening tips.

Muddy
Muddy
October 30, 2023 2:35 pm

The homo h@m@s head psychos would not care if every one of their foot soldiers perished. In fact, that outcome would be promoted on the leaders’ cv.s. As long as the idea (doctrine?) survives – with or without the present heads – h@m@s will be perceived amongst admirers as victorious. Any military victory by Isr@el will be temporary, for the ideological seed of h@m@s & like minded failed humans, will be nurtured by others.

How can that seed be eradicated?

Muddy
Muddy
October 30, 2023 2:38 pm

Snap (kind of) Fair Shake.

Favourable winds & untamed avians carry & spread seeds.

Bill From the Bush
Bill From the Bush
October 30, 2023 3:16 pm

Is it possible that these vermin succeeded beyond their wildest dreams back on the 7th and have no plan B for the consequences. The supposed failure of Israel’s intelligence apparatus (I actually believe there was no information shared by so called allies, looking @ obama’s sock puppet Hiden) allowed the vermin time that normally would not have been available, hence their barbaric behaviour.

Allowing for that, Israel’s response must be to do what needs to be done, no matter what the cost in hostage lives. Failure to do that now will eventually lead to Israel’s obliteration.

Many years ago when dealing with a rat plague in our chook houses, we closed off most of the entrances to their tunnels and then backed the old FJ up. Stuck a hose up the exhaust pipe and started it up. We then waited for any rats to come out from the few hoes we knew of and any we didn’t know of. rats were dispatched with shovels or the fox terrier’s teeth.
Was a satisfying days work!

duncanm
duncanm
October 30, 2023 4:26 pm

How can that seed be eradicated?

It won’t be easy – but make it all part of a greater Israel.

Arabs in Israel are happy.
Palestinians who work in Israel are happy.

https://twitter.com/HilzFuld/status/1718541205645021534

Fair Shake
Fair Shake
October 30, 2023 4:39 pm

Snap (kind of) Fair Shake.

Favourable winds & untamed avians carry & spread seeds.

Hence the need to organically and sustainably napalm on a regular basis.

Pogria
Pogria
October 30, 2023 4:57 pm

Duncanm,
that was a great clip, thanks for linking to it.

Bruce
Bruce
October 30, 2023 6:01 pm

Here is an interesting history presentation from a decade or so back:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7ByJb7QQ9U

Not the “standard, “true” vies of the LSM et al.

Judge Dredd
Judge Dredd
October 30, 2023 6:50 pm

I don’t have a dog in this fight, but two wrongs do not make a right.
Hamas committed terrible atrocities, Israel committed terrible atrocities.
Further, given the Israeli leadership has called for the Gaza Strip to be completely razed and all men, women and children killed. Then it is no surprise that the majority of people are not on the Israeli side, as that is not a measured response.
Overall, this is bringing us ever closer to WWIII, and no one is talking about peace or a cease fire.
These leaders are disgusting and evil on both sides.

lotocoti
lotocoti
October 30, 2023 7:19 pm

I

srael committed terrible atrocities.
Further, given the Israeli leadership has called for the Gaza Strip to be completely razed and all men, women and children killed.

Receipts or GFY.

Makka
Makka
October 30, 2023 7:21 pm

Further, given the Israeli leadership has called for the Gaza Strip to be completely razed and all men, women and children killed.

Link?

jupes
jupes
October 30, 2023 7:55 pm

JD you do have a dog in this fight. Who do you think you are kidding?

duncanm
duncanm
October 30, 2023 8:22 pm

yeh – +1 on that being bullshit.

Israel has called for the elimination of Hamas. Nothing more.

It has made no threats against the general population of Gaza.

Bazinga
Bazinga
October 30, 2023 8:38 pm

The measured KPI should be the total annihilation of Hamas.

duncanm
duncanm
October 30, 2023 9:07 pm

The world’s media and moderating idiots need to be reminded of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32iCWzpDpKs

Alamak!
October 30, 2023 9:49 pm

Solution may be along lines of Dot’s suggestion in previous posts – first do the military campaign and kill enough people to satisfy the home crowd then offer $$, air tickets, residence and passports for anyone that remains. Its the one state solution achieved without WW3 and will please nobody 100% but otherwise we will be back doing this again for next 500 years.

Pogria
Pogria
October 30, 2023 11:44 pm

Judge Dredd
Oct 30, 2023 6:50 PM
I don’t have a dog in this fight, but two wrongs do not make a right.

F**k Off Chamberlain.

Judge Dredd
Judge Dredd
October 31, 2023 7:09 am

JD you do have a dog in this fight. Who do you think you are kidding?

No, I don’t. I’m not Israeli or a Palestinian. I am Australian and a Christian, and I don’t support the evil both sides are committing.
Thousands of civilians are now dead, the vast majority of those in Gaza.
They need to stop the slaughter of innocents and we should pray for peace.

duncanm
duncanm
October 31, 2023 7:18 am

So Mr Dredd — what’s the solution?

Makka
Makka
October 31, 2023 7:58 am

Dredd, you’re a liar. No such statement has been made by the Israeli leadership. So f*ck off with your bs.

Israel’s stated aim is to eliminate Hamas. Their objective is to minimise civilian casualties. If Palestinians refuse to leave or give up these murderous animals then they run the risks. Above all else Israel has a right and duty to defend itself and it’s citizens.

Rufus T Firefly
Rufus T Firefly
October 31, 2023 8:20 am

At the UN General Assembly, the US and 13 other nations, voted against a truce in Gaza. (I am more than aware of this organisation’s, …….., shortcomings.)
Austria, Fiji, Croatia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Tonga and other minnows supported the US in opposition.
France actually voted for the motion, but UK abstained.

The point here is, politically, the US is losing its grip. When France votes against its master, it is time to pay attention.

A lot of sabre rattling from the comments.
I would ask, is Israel “up for” a long and costly war?

The US Carrier Battle Groups are not going to be worth a dime, to the poor Israeli grunt, who is going door to door in the rubble, looking for Hamas. The IDF will kill lots of Gazans, true, but I fear they will also lose heavily.

Any massive loss of life, on either side, is clearly, not the best outcome.
The question is, will Israel be better off, committing to a kill all strategy, politically and militarily?
Netanyahu, given the, “evidently unexpected” events of Oct 7th and his previously disastrous handling of affairs with Arabs, is perhaps, not the best individual to be leading Israel presently.

2,000 rockets fired into Israel and 2,000 fighters entering, is no small affair, yet, despite warnings from Egypt, the Intelligence organisations of Israel and the US, simply missed it.
Seems reasonable.

calli
calli
October 31, 2023 8:32 am

Israel committed terrible atrocities.
Further, given the Israeli leadership has called for the Gaza Strip to be completely razed and all men, women and children killed.

It is a sin to tell lies.

Cassie of Sydney
October 31, 2023 8:42 am

JD’s Jew hatred has been on display here before. It’s nothing new.

He’s an obnoxious Jew hater.

Cassie of Sydney
October 31, 2023 8:44 am

“what’s the solution?”

With people like JD, it’s a final solution.

Except to this I say…

NEVER AGAIN

flyingduk
flyingduk
October 31, 2023 8:53 am

This festering sore will go on until it is dealt with. Sadly, Gazans have shown that Gaza cannot exist alongside Israel. It therefore has to go. It will be painful, but the alternative is to continue as it has, with repeated attacks on Israel, for ever.

The political, economic and military cost of eliminating Gaza, and its occupants will also be high, but the Israelis must see that, at some point, it has to be done. They have to ignore ‘world opinion’ – they must know, by now, that they will be demonised regardless of how ‘nice’ they try to be – the arab world does not respect nice, it respects power.

rosie
rosie
October 31, 2023 9:47 am

Gaza should be returned to Egypt and Gazans made Egyptian Citizens.
Won’t happen though.
There is no more moral army in history than the Israeli army.

Muddy
Muddy
October 31, 2023 9:55 am

A rottweiler & a budgerigar do not go on coffee dates.

Seeking common ground is a natural human desire. For most. To think it will be successful in every circumstance, in every combination of participants, is deluded.

Look at other human interactions, like dating/romance. Do ‘sparks fly’ with every potential partner?

If you put the currant (sic) U.S. pResident within arm’s length of a 10 year-old girl, will the outcome by equally enjoyed by both?

Muddy
Muddy
October 31, 2023 10:02 am

There is no room for morality in survival mode. Nor ‘proportion.’

For Isr@el, morality is body armour. For its enemies (including much of the Filth Filter media), morality & ‘proportionate’ responses are a full-body plaster cast (which they demand Isr@el wears).

The difference is mobility. That difference is intentional.

duncanm
duncanm
October 31, 2023 11:56 am

flyingduk
Oct 31, 2023 8:53 AM

well said, duk. It is, unfortunately, the only sane long-term solution for Israel.

They need to stand firm against world opinion.

C.L.
C.L.
October 31, 2023 12:17 pm

Sadly, Gazans have shown that Gaza cannot exist alongside Israel. It therefore has to go.

Correct.

JC
JC
October 31, 2023 5:57 pm

rosie
Oct 31, 2023 9:47 AM

Gaza should be returned to Egypt and Gazans made Egyptian Citizens.
Won’t happen though.
There is no more moral army in history than the Israeli army.

In reality, who would take these people, especially the kids who have been programmed to kill. The kids aren’t normal children. They’re weaponized killers in the making. No one can take them in. There’s too many of them, but the only thing you would do is put them in mental asylums for life.

STJOHNOFGRAFTON
STJOHNOFGRAFTON
November 1, 2023 12:25 pm

The ‘free’ Palestine marches of thousands of people, around the world, projecting anti-Jewish sentiment seems to me to be demonically inspired. It is certainly frightening to many Jewish people. For those who are familiar with recent history it is like a trip in the ‘way-back machine’ to 1930’s NAZI Germany. What’s disturbing: it seems to be happening again as a repeat performance with rowdy marchers ranting anti-Jewish chants, Stars of David daubed on shops owned by Jews, open, but unchallenged hostility toward Jews and other anti-Jewish acts. The most confronting aspect to this phenomenon is the general lack of public understanding and concern for the wickedness of Hamas atrocities. Yet there are even Jews who are willingly participating in these anti-Jewish pro Palestine marches. What’s even crazier is placard hoisting marchers advertising queers for Palestine. Are they so naive that they don’t understand what the likes of Islam inspired Hamas and Hezbolla would do to them? If you are a Christian pray for Israel. And importantly, tell your Jewish friends. They will be comforted and blessed to know that you are praying for them and that they are not alone.

Kneel
Kneel
November 1, 2023 12:42 pm

“These leaders are disgusting and evil on both sides.”

https://nypost.com/2023/10/30/news/hamas-wont-let-hundreds-of-americans-trapped-in-gaza-leave-pentagon/

“WASHINGTON – The Hamas terror group is blocking hundreds of Americans who are stuck inside the Gaza Strip from leaving the territory, a senior defense official said Monday.

The situation is a grim twist on the pro-Palestinian talking point that Israel runs Gaza as an “open-air prison” — despite not controlling the area since 2005.”

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2023/10/30/hamas-protecting-gazans-not-our-job-n588722

“Interviewer: Since you built 500km of tunnels, why haven’t you built bomb shelters where civilians can hide?

Hamas official: it is the responsibility of the United Nations to protect them.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/27/world/middleeast/palestine-gazans-hamas-food.html (paywalled)

“As Gazans Scrounge for Food and Water, Hamas Sits on a Rich Trove of Supplies

Hamas has spent years stockpiling desperately needed fuel, food and medicine, as well as ammo and weapons, in the miles of tunnels it has carved out under Gaza.”

Contrast to:

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2023/10/30/israel-to-hamas-no-cease-fire-surrender-unconditionally-or-die-n588775

Article quotes CNN:
” Israeli aircraft have dropped new leaflets in Arabic over Gaza, warning people in northern and central parts of the strip that “the governorate of Gaza has become a battlefield.”

“Shelters in the north of the Gaza Strip and the governorate of Gaza have become unsafe,” according to the leaflet, an image of which has been seen by CNN.

“Hamas and the terrorist organizations are using the shelters, hospitals and schools in this area. Therefore, your presence in these places is not safe,” the flier continued.

“You must immediately evacuate and move to the humanitarian area to the south of Wadi Gaza,” the leaflet concluded, referring to a waterway that bisects the enclave.

Are we seeing a difference yet?

There is NO “moral equivalence” here – Hamas is EVIL and has no regard for their own citizens or foreign citizens, neither do they care if vital civilian infrastructure like schools, hospitals and mosques are destroyed, as long as it aids their “cause”. They lied about who “dropped a bomb” on a hospital and how many got killed. They removed water pipes to make bombs and rockets, then complain that there is no fresh water and blame Israel for the lack.

Israel has negotiated in good faith before, and every time they have been betrayed.

Israel will not and should not stop until Hamas and any who support it are dead or have left Gaza. Alas that means many who do not support Hamas will also be killed.

Note also that NONE of Gaza’s supposed Muslim “brothers” want to accept any refugees – Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, et al all refuse to accept them because they are “trouble makers” and will cause “disruptions” in their society.

Alamak!
November 1, 2023 8:44 pm

Israel will not and should not stop until Hamas and any who support it are dead or have left Gaza. Alas that means many who do not support Hamas will also be killed.

Another opinion on collective punishment

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