The latest election polls from RCP here.
The latest from the betting markets, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Update: Baris’s Election Night Live coverage begins.
Is this poisonous?
- Open Thread – Thurs 3 April 2025
- WolfmanOz at the Movies #98
- Open Thread – Mon 31 March 2025
- When the Trees Block the Woods
- Open Thread – Weekend 29 March 2025
USA’s lax immigration laws have lately become…less lax. Do keep up Monty.
Of course he did. Those delightfully spicy ringpieces wont lick themselves…
No.
Usually fat blokes who are below average in male sports.
First Trump
First Trump, then Pogria!!!
I want Trump to win but I can make no predictions.
Resist pet roasting, squirrel euthanising, baby eating Lizard People Overlords!
Vote Trump/Vance!
Amish coming out for Trump.
Apparently some dem making life difficult for an organic farmer is the reason.
Appears to be this case
https://www.newsweek.com/amish-farmer-turned-republican-hero-becomes-flash-point-culture-war-1872374
https://x.com/DefiantLs/status/1853442574876377392?t=KQ6rFax4wwvLiJkkDwt5Nw&s=19
289 to trump for me please T.E.
Done
I’m not sure I’ve seen a time with the polls all over the place and no alignment with betting markets…
In fact, one only has to recall the undisputed “red wave” that was coming in 2022 according to all polls and markets and…
it never came…
Oh it came alright.
That election was stolen too. Ask Kari Lake.
Either way, there will be a very p*ssed off losing mob.
Will the swamp try to disqualify Trump if he wins?
Will anyone believe Harris could possibly win?
The announcement is on Jan 5th 2025 so plenty of time for action, if that’s the plan.
So what happens if Harris wins, and then say, gets assasinated? Prior to inauguration?
Revenge Me!
Avenge me!
Predictions: Substantial Trump Win Likely With “Psychiatric Break on the Left, Particularly Among Younger Women”
I really think women without boundaries go nuts. Right now more mothers than dads kill their kids. Something is going wrong. Let’s hope the orange God can bring things back.
Latest predictions:
Cat POTUS poll
Trump to win
526 – caveman
484 – Bar Beach Swimmer
480 – Pogria
407 – John
P – 367
357 – AnotherRanga
347 – Vicki
330 – Perfidious Albino
327 – Wally Dalí
325 – Long Time Lurker
323 – Little Gidding
321 – Helen
320 – Cohenite
319 – Megan
318 – eb
317 – mizaris
313 – Chris
312 – Zippster, thefrollickingmole
310 – Beertruk
308 – Harlequin Decline, hzhousewife
307 – chrisl
306 – Digger
305 – Indolent, Old School Conservative
304 – Bill P
303 – Farmer Gez, Tom
302 – Makka
301 – zimlurog
300 – Tekweni, Brislurker
299 – Wivenhoe
298 – 132andBush
296 – mem
295 – Barking Toad
294 – Sancho Panzer
293 – Titus Groates
292 – Nelson_Kidd-Players
291 – Its Remarkable, Salvatore – Iron Publican
290 – Top Ender*
289 – Not Uh oh
288 – Mak Siccar
287 – Carpe Jugulum
286 – Rosie
285 – Knuckle Dragger
283 – Lizzie
282 – Steve of Kenmore, Iron Cove
281– Roger
280 – calli
279 – Bruce in WA, Siltstone
278 – Winston Smith, Howie
275 – pete m
273 – Petros
272 – Delta A
271 – Vagabond, Colonel Crispin Berka
*not in comp. so will move progressively right if others want this spot
Harris to win
538 – Lysander
334 – Zafiro
320 – JC
315 – alwaysright
300 – Lawgi Dawes-Hall
298 – Monty
285 – Rafiki
280 – Barry
276 – Dr Faustus
273 – Gilas
272 – Davey Boy
Yo. Dover. if you need a donation to buy extra tissues for Monty, let me know
My heart says Trump. My head says Trump. The “realist” part of me says The Kamal. 🙁
Not an uncommon position to find yourself in.
The theft – as so far has been shown – is enormous.
Rosie November 5, 2024 4:19 pm
America will not tolerate an authoritarian government, and that’s exactly what the Biden/Harris Thogocracy has become.
The question is just how far will the pendulum swing back to enterprise and citizen accountability?
Can I just say this. The most important thing that needs to be done, along with closing the border is at the very least getting the budget to balance. The 10 year bond yield at 4.3% when in mid Sept, it was at 3.65%. If Trump wins, he has to cut spending. The deficit is currently running at 6.5% of GDP while outstanding debt is ~ US$35 trillion. If Trump wins he has to focus on this asap or things could really unravel if the bond market crashes.
And the Chinese/Russia axis are certainly capable of crashing it if they can, even if it affects them badly as well.
Their decisions are made on a political basis – not economic ones.
No matter which way it goes, Biden (or Harris) still enjoys the full executive power of the presidency until inauguration day. It is possible (possibly) if she loses, for Biden to retire immediately (on Wednesday), instantly making her the first female president. She could then issue her first executive order disqualifying Trump from the presidency because he is a convicted felon and of course using the actions of January 6. They have the barriers in place around her residence and the White House so they are preparing for something…. Supreme Court action could be severely hamstrung by paid for and pre-organised riots at the Justices homes and the Supreme Court. There was no action last time they did it so they have tested the water and know they are safe.
wow ..
That would work and all the Dems would agree with it being legit.
If Trump is disqualified this way, is Harris the automatic winner?
In which case, she could get zero votes of the elctoral college and win ..
zero votes!
Are you sure, as the rules are very arcane. In this extreme case, I think it would go to congress.
No, I’m not sure
In the USA, with all their lawyers who ignore laws when they like and twist them when they want, who knows what may or may not be upheld as “law”
They are a rogue state now.
I believe we should lobby the UN to have international officials monitoring the US elections, can’t see them ever getting out of this mess on their own.
He is not yet convicted. That can only happen when the Judge hands down his decision and that’s not until mid December – IIRC, and if anyone has better knowledge of the day, I’d be grateful.
A couple like this works only if the armed forces are onside with it
Nah. There will be lawfare though, depend on it. And fires and looting, and probably killing. If (and he will, handsomely) Trump wins.
311 please TE.
Done
Presuming that’s The Donald to win….
dover, could you update this story with links to
and
Perfect link CCB!!! 🙂
Thanks for that last link, CCB. It’s the one I’ve been looking for.
Single-issue budget deficit voters would all vote for Harris, as it is only Democrats who have lowered the deficit over the last four decades. Every Republican president has blown the deficit out, very much including Trump.
LOL!
We’re not very good at economics are we?
Read it and weep, morons.
PolitiFact, LOL.
Ackchually, their graph says Source: U.S. Office of Management and Budget
LOL.
All government data has been distorted for the cause. The jerb stats this week were laughable.
As if there is a Democrat voter who even understands what a budget deficit is. Idiot.
In anticipation of a possible Orange Reich one wonders where Waleed Ali might be hiding during this election, given his narrow miss and exfiltration under fire in 2016.
Going to be a wild 24hrs.
Trump to get 330-359 is paying $13.
I’ve had a flutter. (Based on comrade montgomery’s predictions.
What site was this from, 132AB?
Winston,
TAB
Only 24 hrs? That’s if we’re lucky. The media has been talking about a slow count.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/04/election-results-timing/
Four days wouldn’t surprise me. And that is without legal challenges.
This time it’s the slo-mo steal.
I think Kamala Harris deserves to win. She was a very well regarded AG of California. Ran for President in 2020. Dropped out of the race when she didn’t poll better than 2% – even in her home state of California. Resurrected as VP by Biden, she has has an exemplary 4 years. Put in the bin and told to be quiet by Biden after 2 years as VP. 92% of her staff left her office. She didn’t realise that Biden was infirm until his poor debate performance – she seriously had absolutely no idea! Bravely stepped in to replace Biden. So she is honest and loyal and capable! What a gal. Never won a primary and off to be the President. Super candidate. Amazing!
That was marvelous. Golf clap!
That’s why I have her down for 538 Electoral College votes.
Everyone on tellie agrees.
Nearly half of the USA people deserve her, if the polls are at all to be believed.
Watch the attempt at the cheat.
13 days is 13 days to try to pull the cheat. Maricopa is 60% of the AZ electorate.
Maricopa County has form for pulling dodgy shit.
But as usual “no evidence of voter fraud”.
Voting was officially underway on Election Day as six registered voters in the town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire cast their ballots just after midnight.
The results in the small town were literally too close to call, as the half dozen voters were split three-to-three between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
It’s actually a sharp swing from 2020, when Joe Biden swept all five people who voted against Trump.
Daily Mail
We have our own Titiana McGrath!
Take a bow, Warwick! 😀
I know it’s satire but Warwick has it pitch perfect.
You can almost believe it to be true. She really is that dumb.
Muntard quoting “politifact” is a bit like Snowcone quoting Sarah Ferguson as an authority; except we know with Monty who takes it up the…
…..well, Muntard, I prefer to use the official US Treasury site:
National Deficit | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
The five highest (pre-Covid) deficits were in 2008, 2009, 2010 2011, 2012. Sure, it came down a bit after that but not much. I can’t quite recall who was in power then lol!!!
The highest deficits ever on record in a post a Covid-overspend, were the last three years (notwithstanding highest US Govt revenue ever for the same three years).
Federal debts only slowed in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019:
Understanding the National Debt | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Federal debts blew upward, exponentially from 2007 to 2014).
it’s impossible to talk to idiots like you and Snowcone and Friends cos everyone paints Trump’s 2020 Covid spend in their stats to make him seem economically illiterate. Like Chalmers talking about Scomo’s Covid debt when Chalmers and Albo were calling for billions more to be spent for longer.
JC, you can have sloppy seconds on this… 😛
Als ob du irgendwas von Wirtschaft verstehst, “Genosse”
And one final remark for our 1930’s German troll:
Verpiss dich, Nazi!
(Apologies to Cassie for stealing her term but using it in German)
The debt chart in that page shows that every administration from Reagan onwards ran a budget deficit with the only exceptions being 2000 & 2001, which was the last year of Clinton and the first year of Dubya.
There’s no good news in that for anyone’s side.
Squirrel murderers v freedom lovers.
You would have to be in a pretty dark place to prefer the death cult.
Trump 297 please T.E. I think the steal will be overwhelmed.
Done
I hope you’re right but I think the steal will be massive.
I don’t think the Democrats even care if everyone knows that they cheated their way to victory.
The US Budget is in very deep shit. Social security and debt interest payments alone are crushing revenues. Trump’s tax and tariff policies if enacted won’t initially help that situation and could make it much worse. He will be racing the clock to mollify the bond vigilantes.
Cleaning up the godawful mess that Dubbya left. From funds allocated in bills largely passed under Dubbya. By the end of Obama’s second term, he had finally got the economy humming again. No thanks to Republican intransigence in Congress.
Thanks for reminding us about Dubbya’s all-time disaster economic performance.
As for Trump, his mismanagement of COVID was all on him. Biden kickstarted investment with the IRA, again no thanks to the Freedom Caucus and other anarchists in Congress.
Tomorrow is going to be fun.
Haha, the deficits the fossil in the WH has run up are far far beyond anything anyone else has done.
Elon wants to knock off $2 trillion. That would seem to be eminently achievable. Especially all the green grift.
You’ll be crying into your double soy castrato chino by lunchtime.
Bridge for sale tard, make an offer.
According to Joe Hockey on Bolt just now, Trump has the highest polling he’s evah had. Better than 2016 when he won, better than 2020 against Biden.
Like everyone else I’ve no idea what will happen over the next days.
Looking at poorly framed polls doesn’t really help.
If there’s a Trumpslide, I expect a step into the unknown; institutional paralysis and legal theatre and God knows what.
If it’s reasonably close at the end of tomorrow, I expect Cakula to get up (but not by too much) on a cloud of arguably irregular voting. There will be political theatre, but the Swamp will close around their girl.
2024 surely has raised some weird alternate shit.
Muntard is now advocating massive cuts to government spending. Wowee.
Sign up here Munt:
Membership – Libertarian Party
Alternately you can try PHON.
Just his latest trolling tactic. H probably imagines it to be reverse psychology or some devilishly clever rhetorical jiu jitsu of some sort. Bless him.
Trump 309
Ok
Thanks TE.
Thanks Warwick for reminding us of Kamal-toe’s performance in the first Primary in 2020.
Chugged off the start line and ran into the gravel at the first corner.
She could only muster 2% (two pussent) of rusted on Dimocrats in a Melbourne Cup Field of nobodies.
Polymarket:
OK, 63/37.
That’s far enough apart that a claim of a Harris win will lead to civil conflict if they try it on.
Killing social media famous pets days out from the election.
Refusing to go on Rogan.
Calling half the country garbage.
Snarling that they want to “smack his ass”.
These are the stupidest people in history.
JC quoting Musk above …
Remember when Musk took over Twitter? There was no salami slicing across the board. He disbanded entire departments wholesale. For example, the entire Asia Pacific region “news curation” group got the arse, along with 6,000 others. One might ask why you need a “news curation” department on what is supposed to be a free-form user driven platform, and Elon did ask just that question. Of course, their job was to bump up stories from their mates in the left-leaning media and suppress “problematic” grass roots stories.
Yes. It isn’t just the cost. It’s the constant foiling of productive pursuits.
Wasn’t that the point of SCOTUS overturning Chevron? That unless Congress explicitly states regulations in statute, they can’t be fabricated out of thin air by a government agency?
Indeed.
After Chevron, it appears that nothing has changed.
@VigilantFox
Speaking of prats, Kamala Harris gains the crucial Waleed Ali pretence of relevance.
He must have good personal security and a foolproof exit strategy in case the vote goes Trump’s way.
Or he knows something leftard that we don’t know.
These are the stupidest people in history.
To be fair, they haven’t advocated for a new war in South East Asia, invaded Moscow in the winter or bet against a Sicilian when life is on the line.
Yet.
Trump into $1.57 at TAB presently. Was $1.75 this time last night.
Normies having a nibble, who think it will be a legit election.
Goodnight all.
Here’s hoping we’ve got some sort of human world order to wake up to.
*Podcast of the Lotus Eaters might be the best web-companion to tune into. Very smart, very funny blokes, very broad interests. And being in England, enough distance to see clearly.
Louder with Crowder for the victory lap, though.
Here’s hoping.
The exit polling in Nantucket is looking good.
Time to tune up the Limericks, then?
Thank God for Fatboy’s prediction that Florida heading towards the K-toe column. Apparently Florida accounts in real time and the Rep vote is through the roof. Folks are using the turnout ratio as a good sign for elsewhere.
Penn sounds like an integrity disaster, but perhaps the cheat margin can be overcome.
A demonrat father and supposedly male. He cried.
That was their mother, had to be, no testosterone.
So he is voting for no grandchildren.
With an appalling attitude like that lefties will soon breed themselves out of existence.
And they’re off.
JC, you in NYC?
Yeah, Areff.
Scanned in later! Like the boxes of fake ones that were “scanned in” repeatedly last time.
They don’t care that the cheat is obvious because nobody will stop them. The Supreme Court will not take the case.
Nothing suspicious about that at all.
What I am gathering from early doomscrolling is that turnout is lolhuge today, so all that likely voter screening in polls is probably way off so we are in uncharted waters. ?
Charlie Kirk in early panic mode.
Piss off, Nazi.
Gateway Pundit is keeping tabs on the inevitable irregularities in voting. Jo Nova delves into the CIA’s history of manipulation going back to the immediate post WW2 period.
All the technology in the US doesn’t make a quick result possible (or a trustworthy one) so it might as well be scrapped and voter ID reintroduced. Our system, even with the silly compulsory preferential whirlygigs can do better.
BBC are happy to say Trump might be the first “convicted felon” to be elected President, but no admission of the fakeness and corruption that led to the court cases or the partisan judges who administer them.
“Their ABCess has been hot to trot with that for days, with it being a regular prt of their “news”.
Up early to turn on the telecast in Sky for US elections. Damn finger used for typing still massively swollen by insect bite yesterday. Put cortisone cream & lots of other potions on it but I think it will just take the usual 3-5 days for it to resolve.
Never go weeding without leather gloves.
Roseanne Barr being her inimitable self.
@therealroseanne
Today, I would like to offer a truce no matter what happens. This division has to end. Whether Trump wins and we have world peace and prosperity and the constitution is safe or Kamala is installed and we turn into a failed state where free speech is illegal and we use foreign wars for money laundering and we own nothing and like it and go to jail for being critical of democrats and we have to eat dogs to survive like every other socialist country- I don’t want to fight with my fellow Americans anymore. It’s not your fault you’re brainwashed and prefer evil over good.
On the cusp of winning against the Socialist machine that has turned the US into shithole, and Roseanne wants a ceasefire so the Left can recover.
Piss off Roseanne.
She was sarcastic.
She doesn’t want a ceasefire, Winston. Have your morning coffee and re-read it with your sarcasm alert turned on. She wants everyone to vote, vote, vote against the Kamala machine and its likely results.
You gotta love a woman who calls a spade a bloody big f##ingredient shovel.
I don’t really understand this voter registration business. Surely, no matter how you’re registered, you can vote for anyone on the ballot. So why register at all?
If This Is True, Trump Will Win and We’ll Know Relatively Early
Another WIP is out!
Election Day in Pictures: While We Wait | Power Line
Spirit of Peanut still fighting for truth, justice and the American way.
Go Peanut. Get it over the line for Trump.
Every. Phucking. Time
Every ballot should be manually checked for a Dot. If present a Harris vote should be removed from the list and a Trump vote added.
Every county should be checked for the presence of these dots and the origin of the dots sought with the perp thrown in a prison for 20 years.
Harris to win all 843 college thingys. In alignment of Obama’s 57 states of America
Uh, oh. Looking at the morning show interviews with queued up voters, looks like hardly anybody is voting for Mr Trump.
Best pic of the 2024 election.
Outstanding!
It would be a massive double tragedy were Mr Trump to lose this election. Not only for world sanity but also personally. If the Democrats win, they must destroy Mr Trump as an example to others who may think of taking on the stranglehold the swamp has enslaving people to its will.
They will also have to destroy Elon Musk which means the end of space exploration and technological advancements. That’s how you sink back into the dark ages as happened after the fall of Rome.
Australian media ladies decrying that abortion rights now reside with the states in the US….I wait for the next question or realisation but it never comes.
If Harris is elected, it is then crucial that the Republicans have a majority that can block Harris’ plans to swamp the Supreme Court with judges who will reinstate the Roe v Wade theory that a right to privacy prohibits abortion restrictions. This seems to be the only way Harris can deliver on the main plank of her agenda. But maybe enough of the current Court can be induced tho change their minds.
If Harris wins, I expect they will also win both houses so it will be open slather…
Let me tell you this: Sheilas and politics don’t always go hand in hand. But if Trump pulls off a win tonight, a big chunk of the credit has to go to a certain sheila who stepped up, made the election safer, and put a scare into the left to keep things honest. Laura Trump might as well be Superman.
Quadrant’s Roger Franklin on the campaign trail:
BACK IN 2016 I put a substantial bet on Trump after driving from Florida to New York, mostly on backroads winding through towns that had seen better days. The preponderance of Trump lawn signs and, more telling, semi-trailers with ‘Trump’ written in the dust on their rear doors prompted the surmise that the bookies’ 7-1 odds were way out of whack with reality.
This year there will be no wagering. Trump seems remarkably confident when talking about his campaign’s polls, but the public ones are tied. Is this because, as in 2016, Trump voters are shy or because the polling outfits are trying to cover their backsides and thus tickling the samples for the safest result? Nate Silver, the polling guru from 538, reckons they’re “herding” because that is safer. Call Trump eight points ahead and he goes on to lose, credibility is shot and the pollsters lose business. Safer to be wrong with plenty of company.
Whatever happens, Election Day’s aftermath won’t be pleasant.
If Trump wins, the Left will riot. If Kamala wins, no one on the right will believe ballot fraud didn’t play a part. God knows what happens then but — count on it — it will be ugly. During the 11 months I’ve spent driving around America, I’ve made a point to ask Trump supporters what they will do if the 2024 result is shaped by the alleged and widely perceived cheating of four years earlier. Ominously, references to the Second Amendment have been common.
Speaking only for myself, I think Trump has a bullseye on his back. The Swamp can’t afford to let him anywhere near the Oval Office — too many bodies buried, too many skeletons. The crimes of the weaponised Justice Department alone would keep investigators, special counsels and juries busy for years Two attempts have been to kill Trump. What reason is there to believe there won’t be more?
Beyond that, some Democrats are talking openly of refusing to ratify a Trump victory. Congressman Jamie Raskin put it this way:
Let folks cast their votes for Trump if that’s their choice. But mark my words, we won’t be certifying the election. He might win, but we’ll ensure he doesn’t step foot in the Oval Office.
Stay tuned. The main show is just starting.
Raskin did not say that, fake news.
Roger is a bit of a thicko.
Fap, fap, fap.
Monty the fake fact checkers say it is fake news, which usually means it is true.
It’s a tell when they jump in to fact check something, from Hunter’s laptop to the Steele dossier.
It’s another tell when the fact checkers come up immediately in the search engines and you have to scroll and scroll to find the quote on a non-lefty site. That means Bing and Goolag are promoting the propaganda as a means of protecting the Dems.
Yes I did search the quote just now. It was fun to pick all the tells.
Wow. Much of society rests on the basis of trust and implicit cooperation. We saw how that was abused through Covid. Not much left in the US. Sow the winds …
my ears have been burning, and now that I see why
There is a correction posted at QoL with the real quote and link included:
It will be up to us on January 6, 2025, to tell the rampaging Trump mobs that he’s disqualified, and then we need bodyguards for everyone in civil war conditions…
LOL – predictable, us?
Dumbocrats claiming Wussians are sending bomb threats to various polling stations in several states.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, was the one who identified the source of the threats as Russia.
Well Russia does want Kamala, so it is plausible.
And no, at least one GA bomb threat wasn’t from Russia because the guy who made it has been arrested.
‘Boom toy’: Georgia poll worker arrested on fake bomb threat charges (6 Nov)
Raffensperger is a RINO.
I forget if it was Baris I read a little while ago. He reckons on the current estimates that’s coming out Trump could pull off a landslide.
I walked past Trump Tower around 11 a.m. There were about 15 cop cars parked along 5th Ave, and people were setting up barricades. Concrete barriers lined the approach to the corner of 5th and 56th Street.
Just up 5th Ave, people were snapping pictures of a Tesla truck painted with a big, bright “Trump” on the back and bonnet.
Will head down again later this evening after the election party if I’m not drunk.
Crazy shit..
Then they will burn it tonight either in rage or celebration.
This is brilliant.
“When you use AI to replace every mention of “our democracy” with “our bureaucracy,” everything starts making a lot more sense.”
https://x.com/Banned_Bill/status/1853842945767592429?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1853842945767592429%7Ctwgr%5E8a6c019b056f5e3658b0b2dca4bc4194d954999b%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fbrandon_morse%2F2024%2F11%2F05%2Fhilarious-video-uses-ai-to-expose-what-democrats-are-really-saying-when-they-talk-about-democracy-n2181596
I hope this gets sent out to a hundred other sites.
Replacing democracy withe bureaucracy says it all.
It’s inspired.
yep, totally flips it to truth.
Katie Hopkins: Dear America……
Lessons WE SHOULD LEARN from Peanut the Squirrel
Roger Franklin, please check your email.
This one mentions the RINO in GA and his Wussians.
Election Chicanery Update: Is It Happening? Sure Looks Like It (5 Nov)
“I don’t really understand this voter registration business. Surely, no matter how you’re registered, you can vote for anyone on the ballot. So why register at all?”
1) If you’re not registered, you can’t vote in the election.
2) if you are registered, then depending on state, you can only vote in the primaries (who gets to run for the party) if you are registered as a voter for that party.
Since most people vote as they register (not always of course, and neither do you have to), by knowing the party registration of early votes, you get an idea of counts. Not conclusive, but an idea. And likely a bit better than polling although who knows?
I think it’s even more problematic this time – some R’s are “never Trump”, and some D’s are way to “centre” to accept the current D administration policies.
Thank you. Obviously you have to register to vote (unless you’re a Democrat) but you’ve explained the need to show a party.
Just in case…
Yep, giving more ammo to the dumbocrats when the squawking starts after the results.
CNN exit poll unsurprisingly has democracy as the top priority for Democrat voters with abortion second, and the economy as top for Republicans with immigration second. No mention of trans issues though.
Exit polls are even less reliable than ordinary polls.
Ignore the exit polls. (5 Nov)
I am amused though that when pollsters ask the question climate change usually comes last.
It’s coming up to 6:00 PM in New York.
What time do polls close in the Eastern States?
6 o’clock closing.
NYS polling sites close at 9pm – probably latest in the country.
Useful summary (ABC, so hold your nose)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-05/when-do-i-need-to-check-in-on-the-us-election-results/104549742
I’m using this one – at least I don’t have to put up with the performing seals of the media.
Final predictions coming up to poll closure:
Cat POTUS poll
Trump to win
526 – caveman
484 – Bar Beach Swimmer
480 – Pogria
407 – John
P – 367
357 – AnotherRanga
347 – Vicki
330 – Perfidious Albino
327 – Wally Dalí
325 – Long Time Lurker
323 – Little Gidding
321 – Helen
320 – Cohenite
319 – Megan
318 – eb
317 – mizaris
313 – Chris
312 – Zippster, thefrollickingmole
311 – GreyRanga
310 – Beertruk
309 – Annie
308 – Harlequin Decline, hzhousewife
307 – chrisl
306 – Digger
305 – Indolent, Old School Conservative
304 – Bill P
303 – Farmer Gez, Tom
302 – Makka
301 – zimlurog
300 – Tekweni, Brislurker
299 – Wivenhoe
298 – 132andBush
297 – Bazinga
296 – mem
295 – Barking Toad
294 – Sancho Panzer
293 – Titus Groates
292 – Nelson_Kidd-Players
291 – Its Remarkable, Salvatore – Iron Publican
290 – Top Ender*
289 – Not Uh oh
288 – Mak Siccar
287 – Carpe Jugulum
286 – Rosie
285 – Knuckle Dragger
283 – Lizzie
282 – Steve of Kenmore, Iron Cove
281– Roger
280 – calli
279 – Bruce in WA, Siltstone
278 – Winston Smith, Howie
275 – pete m
273 – Petros
272 – Delta A
271 – Vagabond, Colonel Crispin Berka
*not in comp
Harris to win
538 – Lysander
334 – Zafiro
320 – JC
315 – alwaysright
300 – Lawgi Dawes-Hall
298 – Monty
285 – Rafiki
280 – Barry
276 – Dr Faustus
273 – Gilas
272 – Davey Boy
Nearly up to 100 partakers in comp. Well done chaps and chapesses and TopEnder. And so far no disputes or cheating
I can’t watch Sky’s election coverage, they have Fluffy Annelise in the chair. I would rather watch the other idiots Bret Baier and Martha on Fox. Or maybe not, just go online instead.
First votes trickling in from Indiana and Kentucky.
Crossie
November 6, 2024 10:05 am
I can’t watch Sky’s election coverage, they have Fluffy Annelise in the chair. I would rather watch the other idiots Bret Baier and Martha on Fox. Or maybe not, just go online instead.
Check these sites:
Dan Bongino – https://rumble.com/Bongino
Steven Crowder – https://rumble.com/StevenCrowder
Charlie Kirk – https://rumble.com/CharlieKirk
The Fox B&M duo have Dana and Laura as well as some other lesser lights aka also rans. Harold Ford Jnr is there doing his usual traitorous support for Kamala. I say that because after the last four years how could anyone ask for more of the same unless they are cheering for the destruction of the USA.
Or these:
Russell Brand – https://rumble.com/russellbrand
Dave Rubin – https://rumble.com/RubinReport
The Salty Cracker – https://rumble.com/SaltyCracker
Viva Frei & Robert Banres – https://rumble.com/user/vivafrei
Valid question.
https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1853934174903869640?t=T6ts0iRuxCqF8qbnaWHbrQ&s=19
According to exit poll share of the white vote has gone from 67% in 2020 to 71% 2024. Take it with a grain of salt.
Hispanic vote may be larger than the black vote for the first time.
Heh, one especially for Cat libertarians, although other Cats might like it too (except Monty).
With JD Vance And Elon Musk, Suddenly Ideas Are Back In This Campaign (6 Nov) Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,
I don’t know how Elon can possibly engage with all this stuff. Rogan, Ron Paul, Trump, plus who knows how many other pundits and twitter trolls. The man is even more of an energizer bunny that Trump is.
People understand Elon gets shiite done.
Early results from Indiana and Kentucky largely match prior Trump totals, maybe a touch down. Not much evidence of a tariff policy backlash, very low sample size admittedly.
The tariff policy is actually fun. What Trump said was he’d put a 25% tariff on everything from Mexico until the Mexican government stopped the illegal drug flow over the border.
Mexico has been like the neighbour who throws all their garbage over the fence into your back yard. Of course that’s because so much of the government and police are on the payrolls of the cartels, who have an irritating tendency to immediately assassinate anyone who dissents to their control.
Baris’s Election Night Live coverage begins.
Half of my desktop screen is still black. Sorry: A monitor of colour. I can still see the right side though. Coincidence? I think not.
(J.C. I think, mentioned a Tesla truck. Trump’s granddaughter Kai drives one. 17 years old & you drive a Tesla truck! Noice).
Muddy – Maybe as an interim workaround you could flip the screen image by 90 degrees, then prop the monitor up sideways. It’d then act more like a half sized monitor.
That would at least let you see stuff fairly normally, and you could scroll with the mouse wheel to reveal the stuff in the black section.
Change screen orientation (MS how to for Win 10 and 11)
Thanks BoN, I’ll give that a go this evening. I plan on purchasing a new monitor, but need to find the input socket first, as this desktop is one of those all-in-one machines. Other distractions beckon, however. Cheers.
Cutting spending should be easy, and Musk is the right guy to attack it.
As I say, he wouldn’t pull the “10% salami slicing” cuts across the board. He would ditch entire departments and agencies.
That works fine with downsizing Twitter.
However, the problem for Trump will be the pork-barreling effect where these agencies have offices in marginal constituencies. He will face Republican Congressional resistance from reps who love the idea of spending cuts … just NIMBY.
Stephen Miller also panicking about high female turnout. You love to see it.
I votes with muh ovaries!
Poso circulating a rumour that Jill Biden wrote in Joe Biden when she voted. No love lost.
Suburban counties in the Midwest showing significant swings to Harris early doors. Very bad sign for Trump. That is blue wave stuff, particularly combined with him not gaining in rural counties.
Piss off, Nazi grub.
Huge shift in Georgia towards Trump among independents according to CNN exit poll, about twenty points. That is very good news for Trump.
Baris reporting great figures (early but) for Georgia.
Global Times, the CCP’s English language mouthpiece, picks no winners:
US Election Day voting begins amid fears of violence, unrest
Aside from highlighting the potential for election violence from all sides in the scabby, declining West, the article is remarkably balanced. Setting the tone for a ‘failed state, unlike Golden Xi’s China’ broadside in the aftermath, irrespective of who wins.
You can almost sense the Joy in Beijing as the corrupt Amurkan hegemon thrashes itself in front of the World.
Well played, Swamp.
Fox reporting Trumpy got 25% of black vote in Georgia!!!
I’m not sure that during the most media saturated event in history, that we need a blow by blow narration from Monty.
Not sure you are adding any value guy.
Election day is about reality, not your epistemic bubble. Deal with it.
I’m looking out for you bloke.
You’re already spraying random info like a spastic chipmunk with a stomach virus.
Pace yourself a little at least.
Watch it Mony, Arky might sicc his meat eating terror birds onto you.
And DemonRat fraud is reality.
mUnty, what happened to yr perpetual Speculation Boner?
can’t get it up today?
He never adds value, quite the reverse.
Arky, Monty is just a parrot, so his party talking points will be useful to know as the 2024 Steal progresses in the next 24 hours.
PJ Media:
LIVE: Election Night 2024
(I’m amused that the first advert I get is “Immigrate to Canada”)
Iowa may be a state that will be interesting in light of the late blow out poll going Kamala”s way.
Going out to buy glue.
Both PVA and polyurathane.
Early coverage is worthless.
Suggest if you have chores, to attend to them over the next while, before you settle in for this historic day.
True.
But Trumpy’s chances of POTUS have gone up from 57% to 60.5%.
Wait until after 3am…
Quite correct, Arky. I have a couple of episodes of Outback Truckers to watch. so I’ll tune in to Fox around 3pm AEDT when I expect vote counting is suddenly called off with Trump clearly ahead and the Steal gets underway.
Musk is reporting that the cavalry has arrived & men are voting in record numbers.
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky. Idiots in Vermont went cackles.
We are back on road to Sydney as I think may be developing g cellulitis in the finger bitten by insect yesterday. Will attend one if the new emergency clinics which are better than sitting for hours in hospital emergency,
At least I can watch the US elections in IPad!
Good luck Vicky. Take care
Do you have an RFDS Box?
Got interested & checked availability of clinic near me .. 20kms away in Liverpool .. Fairfield Hospital is at the top of the street so I guess I’ll be sticking with the ER option .. LOL!
Trump wins Indiana and Kentucky. Idiots in Vermont went cackles.
As expected.
As well as the other links I gave about election coverage, Red Eagle who dickless maliciously defamed, is providing good coverage:
(124) ? LIVE: 2024 Election Night Megastream – YouTube
Vermont called for Harris with 3% of the vote counted?
Say what?
Sky saying Trump 23 votes versus Harris 3:
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/how-to-watch-sky-news-australias-rolling-coverage-of-donald-trump-kamala-harris-us-election-showdown-next-week/live-coverage/07b274334c76045151b299d32a5eb28b
Don’t wanna get ahead of myself but odds now up to 62%.
Now up to 65%…. I can’t see it on the map but perhaps county levels are showing trends….
I really want to see what happens in NY and NJ.
More solid suburban blue swings in Georgia. Not sure where this exit poll swing against her with independents is going to show up, if at all.
Piss off Nazi grub, go play with your Hamas buddies.
Well the GA election officials counted the ballots over the weekend after excluding all the Republican scrutineers, so that is plausible. The result isn’t though. I wonder how many times they counted and tallied the Dem heavy counties?
CNN projects that Trump will win West Virgina – 4 electoral votes adding to Indiana and Kentucky.
Interestingly, Joe Manchin’s Senate seat in West Virgina will flip.
It should have done so three elections ago.
Florida staying red. Add those EC votes into Fatty Trump’s column.
Cos I’ve got Paramount streamer for “fitba’ flicked it onto the election coverage (CBS) ..
Advice DON’T BOTHER with this coverage .. They go to a 5 minute advert break every three minutes reporting .. FFS!
Trump up 9% with 74% counted and the panhandle yet to come in and probably alot of election day votes. It should be called for Trump
Watching Fox News high-powered panel. Waiting time in line to vote can be as high as 6 hours! WTF?
We start complaining here towards the one hour mark. Again, the US doesn’t have its act together for orderly voting.
Sky saying Trump 23 votes versus Harris 3:
CBS has it at Trump 32 to 3 .. 11.45am & they luv Cackles ..
Called West Virginia for Trump …….
The 30K that voted for Stein in FL need to move to California…
Trump killing it there by 700,000 with 75% counted. Likely a better result than ever before.
I am not even quietly optimistic. THe only thing that we can be sure of is the demonrats will pull every stunt to cheat, annul, and or prevent Trump from taking office, assuming he survives the next few assassination attempts.
The US desperately needs Musk to clean out the filth in the parasitic bureaucratic class.
All deliberate, of course.
They really do need to clean all this shit up before the next presidential election in 2028.
Looks like the polls were correct. Ohio is lost to Harris.
North Carolina is one to watch… Trump and republicans should have it won easy. After Biden/Harris FEMA etc left them unsupported after their hurricane floods. CNN projects Mark Robinson the GOP Governor Candide will be blown away, and there is a LOT of blue in the early reporting rural precincts.
Cenk Uygur is upset the Orange Man didn’t throw Israel under the bus to win the mohammadan vote.
Early Exit Polls Show Peanut The Squirrel With Commanding Lead (5 Nov)
The early counts look optimistic, but I think Trump is in a fair bit of trouble.
Trump up almost a million votes in Florida.
The Oz saying The Donald 90 to 27…
This is tragic. Pennsylvania will go to Harris.
“The early counts look optimistic, but I think Trump is in a fair bit of trouble.”
Certainly if he loses, he will be!
However..;.
Trump is currently up on the national popular vote, and that would give him CA, IL and NY – 100 EC votes!
All the Amish votes are still to come…
“All the Amish votes are still to come…”
Yes – upwards of 20k votes in PA from them – likely more than previous 2 election margins!
And R had higher “early vote” turnout in general.
My wishcasting on Florida looks to be misguided. Not a twenty point margin like DeSantis managed for governor in 2022, more like Trump’s margin of four in 2020.
He’s +12 at 88% expected count done.
Florida is gone for the Dems. Hispanic Floridans are voting for Trump.
linky
My wishcasting on Florida looks to be misguided.
Indeed, Nazi. And now we wait for results from Iowa and Texas to further confirm your ‘wishcasting‘.
Don’t worry Nazi, Kamala will win.
Just in – Trump wins Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Oklahoma & Tennessee
A few here calling it as the horses pass the post for the first time.
Relax, it’s a long race.
About to join a Cats’ meetup to celebrate the death of America (as a realist).
Scott Adams today neatly summarised the US election system as being totally independent of the wishes of the voting masses.
No, it is a system that now runs on multiple rule changes at the State level, the latest one being in Georgia (and favouring Orange God, but probably too late).
There have never been more changes and appeals, about States’ voting systems, than in the last year-or-so, too many to count. All arising from the GOP’s stroke-of-genius realisation that their decade+ long self-fornication to post-orgasmic smugness might not have been a good thing, after all.
In the mean-whil-st (sic) the BlobRats, with the help of the RINOs, have been adjusting the levers, to create the one-party dictatorship so evident now.
So successful all this has been, that the BlobRats don’t even bother to hide their deceit, as well as their contempt for due process. The Machine is now in full view, daily.
So there it is: the US now has an electoral system constantly gamed by BlobRat lawyers, to create a result that bears no relationship to the Demos’ Will.
BlobRats, MSM, polling companies, BigTech, Soros-backed lawyers and judges, 40% of a brain-washed electorate and, most importantly, bat-shit-crazy single cat-women, may well have successfully broken America.
Hoping to Hell and back that I am wrong and that the Orange-God landslide can provide a clean result today. Legal challenges can wait.
Unlikely. What you are seeing currently in Ohio and Kansas is pre-poll votes, which tend to be more Democratic. The remaining votes are much more from election day.
Piss off, Nazi.
Some very witty person has created a Downfall parody of Dumbocrats losing the Election. Peanut, Diddy and Hawk Tua receive mention. So funny.
https://x.com/TheHoleTweet/status/1853645610810786049
“I told you to go and intimidate conservative voters! Instead you kill Peanut the fuking squirrel!”
We looked at ALL the Diddy footage, and couldn’t find a single pic of Trump!
Travelling to fly out today… Will be exposed to their ABCcess coverage… Pray for me.
Im in Brisbane Virgin Domestic. Thankfully no TV on display.
Don’t see that:
And Trump is now just ahead with 41% counted.
Is Vermont choc full of escapees from Blue cities?
I heard it described as a suburb of Boston.
Vermont is Bernie Sanders Land.
Think Ben and Jerry…
“Donald Trump has now exceeded our polling margin in Florida (11pts) which I already could not believe to be possible.
I published because the numbers are the numbers. But it was a difficult one to drop because it’s insane.”
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1853966645686866144?t=Lu4AK72aXkfTrRL9cVPgxQ&s=19
See?
While youse was speculating on a bunch of random stuff and still have no idea who is winning, I bought glue and finished gluing up the Model A front seat frame.
Anything happen while I was away?
Also
“If Loudon County mirrors the statewide swing, then Virginia is going to be VERY close.
It’s an 8-point swing to Trump from 2020, with 95% reported.”
https://x.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1853965231359168914?t=wkz9zKHaqWxwDtP5xXrQzw&s=19
Loudon County is suburban Washington DC.
Virgina îs now very tight with 40% counted. This is a state that I think is going to the wire.
Six minutes ago:
Of course they will, it a tried and trusted method for them. Why would they abandon something that worked so well for them?
Bernie Sanders is from Vermont.
And has been re-elected.
Looks like Arkansas and South Carolina for Trump
Just flipped to daytime Sky during a Fox News ad break and Fluffy Analiese is fretting that her colleagues in the news media “don’t know how to cover” Donald Trump.
But what really got my attention is that Fluffy Analiese appears to be sporting a baby bump.
Obviously that would mean she would have to move to Canada or back to Australia as she wouldn’t want her child growing up in Trump’s Hitler economy.
I noticed fluffy was puffier in the face earlier this week, I surmised that US food may have been the cause, it is almost impossible to eat properly over there without your own kitchen.
That’s why the new hairstyle.
Fluffy mummies have no credibility.
Popular vote6.0% of expected vote
This is why I don’t think we will see a Trump win today, I hope I am wrong but I still think they will pull something later today.
Gilas, not just America but Europe and UK too. I saw the effects of it during my recent visit to Sweden, people are not happy with what is going on but no way to change anything.
Yeah, the USA will be in trouble if Cackula wins.
But Ostraya will be really rooted.
Watching our country circling the drain.
Trump now just ahead in Virgina with 44% reporting. There are a couple of rural counties not yet reporting.
If the Demoncrats lose this … the steal will be unprecedented.
[I still am so keen to see New York. I recon the squirrel will make a difference there!]
Decision Desk calls Virginia for Harris with less than 50% reporting and Trump in the lead.
Piss off, Nazi.
But Ostraya will be really rooted.
… Watching our country circling the drain.
Yah.
There is now little difference between the major parties. And worse … It may be that the Teals will have balance of power and that will accelerate the process.
We’ll see.
This is shit.
I’m going out to spray paint the front bench seat panel.
good idea
CNN calls Texas for Trump literally two seconds after polls close, LOL.
Piss off, Nazi.
NY Times predicts Electoral College estimate Trump 279 to Harris 259
Texas to Trump.
Louisiana and Kansas to Trump
New York and Colorado to Harris
Sounds like OIHO* is now solidly R.
(* Obama joke.)
Now. 178 electoral college votes to Trump
113 to Harris
The CNN graphic just now of outstanding Georgia votes had a lot of big blue circles and not much red. Looks like a repeat of the 3am MASSIVE VOTE DUMP is still very much on the cards.
You lot will go mental once again, because you are morons.
Piss off Nazi, go play with your Hamas buddies, after all, they’re ‘your lot’.
The annoying thing about the 0300 vote dump is that Republican scrutineers are excluded during it, demonstrating that it is a steal.
But you knew that, and approve, because you are a fat fascist fool.
Democrat POS Raskin confirms their plans if they don’t defeat Trump at the ballot:
Natalie Winters on X: “Rep. Jamie Raskin: “It’s going to be up to us on January 6th 2025 to tell the rampaging Trump mobs he’s disqualified.” This is the masterplan. https://t.co/hhQLV7r2D1” / X
He’d better make sure his health insurance is paid up if that’s what he thinks.
While a good result – it is not enough to prevent a slew of legal challenges protests and ultimately claims of not having a mandate.
I picked Trump by 279. For the first time in my life I hope to hell I have underestimated! If the Dems win, I truly fear for my rellies living in the USA!
Pronounced Oi! Ho! ?
or, Oh-I-Ho?
Solid early results for Harris in PA, albeit with too many pre-poll votes mixed in to draw conclusions as yet.
There’s a great collection of stories from some chick… one has an out-of-towner being introduced, says she comes from Iowa.
“Around here we just say “Ohio”, honey,” says some bird, not unkindly.
Latest I’m seeing is Trump 195, Harris 113. I’ve just started to unclench my fists. Please, God, let it be …
Add 55 for Harris taking California which is a certainty.
Unless Trump gets the popular vote.
DJT at 66 percent chance
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html#
BoN.
May we please have an update from PJ Media?
Thnaks
I can’t put up a graphic unless they post it on the live thread in png format.
But here is the PJM results-so-far page:
Election 2024 Results
As of just now:
Trump 210 /Harris 105
Senate GOP +1 Dems -1
House GOP +3 Dems -3
Getting together my suitcases full of Kamala votes ready for midnight.
Muh ha ha ha.
The Oz saying Trump 162, Harris 62.
It a science.
You have to time it just right and calculate the required number of ballots to a tee.
After all, you don’t want to fill out thousands more papers then you actually need.
Hand cramps. Ow ow ow.
Like getting to write out 500 lines of “I must not call the staff a bunch of irredeemable dykes and sadists.”
After we win, we can kill ALL the little woodland creatures.
I’ll get you, and your little dog.
Decision Desk calls NC for Trump.
Blame FEMA for that one.
We’ve had the first “you lot”.
Sounds like Monty is hurting.
It’s ok Monty, It’s still several hours until 3am.
PJM: Trump 210 Harris 105
CNN exit poll: “A Harris win would be a miracle”, says Chris Wallace.
A handy guide to early counting is that it almost always favours the Dems because the city centres are counted before rural areas.
So the overall tally should swing to Trump as the vote-counting progresses.
That doesn’t factor in the Steal, in which Trump votes will be replaced by Harris votes as the count continues.
A footnote about Fox News: like daytime Sky and nighttime Sky, the Fox News newsroom is dominated by loony leftists barracking for the Dems. while the main Fox commentators/analysts are less prejudiced against Trump.
The newsroom guys are in charge of calling races throughout the night and expect that tally to favour Dems.
Watching on X and I’m relaxing a bit as looks like NC with 16 electoral college votes to Trump. Crucial.
If Trump loses PA he has to gain WI and GA to compensate, but it looks like Cackles is leading in WI. 🙁
No covid factor in play and I reckon it sort of matters to the mail in votes.
Shouldn’t be as large and would help with exit poll accuracy.
Gilas:
Free Enterprise will beat Communism at a moderate cost.
Christianity can beat Islam at a moderate cost.
The West can beat Islam and Communists at a heavy cost.
We cannot beat Islam, the Communists, and the treasonous bastards already inside the walls.
The Treasonous Bastards (TM) are what will destroy us – they have to be dealt with.
Now you can see why Pinochet gave out so many helicopter flights – he had no choice.
Let’s hope we aren’t forced to that choice.
Trump is ahead in Virginia, recently a strong blue state. Why is he ahead? Progressive overreach.
And if you blinked you missed it. Harris back in the lead.
That is the opposite of the truth, Tom. You are really bad at this stuff. Stick to reposting the funny papers.
That’s not what at least one UC election analyst thinks Monty. Do you have a source to cite?
US I meant
Some good news.
Polls, such as they are, had Cruz in trouble. Now he has another term to give Dems some nice hot Texan curry.
Because the steal hasn’t swung into top gear, yet.
PJ Media
Trump 226 Harris 108
Senate Repub 47 Dem 37
House Repub 161 Dem 111
Trump wins NC
Something else occurred to me in recent days regarding The Big Steal.
Kamal-toe has been going on about how Trump will be out for vengeance if he gets in.
So, imagine you are a peripheral Dimocrat player in one of the swing states and someone puts it on you to drop off a box of ballots at midnight.
Hearing that Trump will be out for blood if he wins and seeing what happened to the Jan 6 guys, you might think twice about getting involved.
Hopefully he has enough mongrel in him to follow through. If he wins.
I just have to inform you all that despite our Nazi’s assurances a day or two ago that Iowa will turn blue, Trump is ahead in Iowa.
I think this is a tell that slow states are counting and counting and counting until the Dems have enough votes.
(From PJM live thread.)
If this is another one of those ones where you go to bed thinking Trump has won comfortably, only to wake up and find the squirrel murdering, wife beating, race baiting, lying, child trafficking, war mongering, scum sucking swine have stollen it…