New Catallaxy

June 18, 1919…Let it Rip!

…And they did!

They weren’t even confined to their houses, and two goes were enough.

If only we actually learnt from history.

A further violent recrudescence of the influenza epidemic places the State Government in an unenviable position. Owing to the precautionary measures insisted upon by the use of sovereign powers during the two previous outbreaks of the disease, the public purse has been already drawn upon to an extent that cannot yet be calculated, but which must run into six figures. Naturally the Government is loth to undertake further heavy financial responsibilities in this connection.

On the other hand, as we have previously pointed out, the loss of human life cannot be estimated in figure representing pounds, shillings, and pence. It is the first and the most sacred duty of any government to protect the lives of citizens. Nevertheless, people will always be found ready to criticise what is done. Generally, we accept the view that the precautionary measures taken by the Government were dictated by the best evidence available, and that its policy exercised an appreciable influence upon both the area and the virulence of the disease.

It is now reported that the Cabinet gave the matter serious consideration yesterday, but that no decision was reached, beyond calling for a report as to the hospital accommodation for patients suffering from the more serious forms of the malady…

…As far as other restrictions are concerned, the Government may be excused for hesitating. There is a stage at which governmental responsibility for the public health ends…This is the third wave of the epidemic. By now the general public has been educated in the method of infection and the seriousness of the malady. It should be sufficient now to warn them against the voluntary acceptance of risks which can be avoided.

Sydney Morning Herald, 18 June 1919, page 10

Mater

33 responses to “June 18, 1919…Let it Rip!”

  1. rosie Avatar
    rosie

    It might already be ripping.

    Lockdown or no lockdown.

    Premier god complex is the biggest disease afflicting Australia.

  2. Mother Lode Avatar
    Mother Lode

    I wish j’ismists still wrote that well.

    Naturally the Government is loth to undertake further heavy financial responsibilities in this connection.

    The kiddies these days would look at it and say “Loth? Of bread? Geez old people are stupid.”

  3. Not Trampis Avatar
    Not Trampis

    Was the reproduction rate 8 like the Delta variant?
    Was there anything comparable to long covid which affects somewhere between 1 in 3 to 1 in 8 and then did it exacerbate other problems which led to deaths of 1 in 12?

    If delta id rising at an exponential rate under lockdown where do you think it would be without one. hint look at India.
    hospitals would be exploding and staff severely over worked which would mean more deaths.

    There is no choice between health and economic outcomes.

  4. dover0beach Avatar
    dover0beach

    Ah, the prudence of our forebears. The comparison is stark and damning for our current crop of ‘leaders’.

  5. Shy Ted Avatar
    Shy Ted

    Yeah but 1919 wasn’t driven by the great reset.

    1
  6. Cassie of Sydney Avatar
    Cassie of Sydney

    “Not Trampissays:
    August 19, 2021 at 9:32 am”

    Do you know how to put a sentence together and use capitals?

    1
  7. Cassie of Sydney Avatar
    Cassie of Sydney

    “Shy Tedsays:
    August 19, 2021 at 10:08 am
    Yeah but 1919 wasn’t driven by the great reset.”

    Exactly, this is all a dress rehearsal for the coming climate lockdowns.

  8. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    There is no choice between health and economic outcomes

    An economy isn’t a sentient being, nor a self-contained structure.
    Economic activity is merely the day to day activity that people undertake to keep themselves alive, and that includes the health industry.
    In your effort to separate the two, you show yourself to be a goose. To try to stop one in favour of another, smacks of ill intent.

    2
  9. rosie Avatar
    rosie

    Let’s compare ourselves to India, which doesn’t have a functionality medical system and had many other fine third world features.

    Actually I’m somewhat loth to do so.

    (It should be no surprise that new mutations are emerging in vast unvaccinated populations like India).

  10. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Was the reproduction rate 8 like the Delta variant?

    Care to provide a reference for this?
    I’d be interested to read it.

  11. Boambee John Avatar
    Boambee John

    Non Compos Trampis

    If the reproduction rate for Delta were anything like 8, the whole of Australia would already have been infected.

    I realise that you are simply an ignorant troll, and not a very good one, but what do you find so difficult to understand about the definition of virulent (extremely severe or harmful)? It has nothing to do with proportions of people infected, but the impact on those people.

    Kindly take your gross ignorance (defined as 144 troll posts) elsewhere.

    How are you going with the definition of “lubricious”? Too hard for you?

    2
  12. Boambee John Avatar
    Boambee John

    Mater

    Re Non Trampis Mentis, and your response that “In your effort to separate the two, you show yourself to be a goose. To try to stop one in favour of another, smacks of ill intent.”

    The silly goose said yesterday on one of your earlier threads that people in Australia are either working from home, or not working at present. He/she/xe has absolutely no clue about such basic economic matters as how food gets from farm to supermarket, or how fuel gets from well to petrol station.

    A complete idiot, who makes the socks of Grigoogle look intelligent.

    2
  13. Professor Higgins Avatar
    Professor Higgins

    Good get, Mater!

    1
  14. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    The silly goose said yesterday on one of your earlier threads that people in Australia are either working from home, or not working at present.

    He/she also said that using India as an example was “questionable”.
    I wish he/she would make up it’s mind.

    1
  15. Not Trampis Avatar
    Not Trampis

    Well take a look at john Cochrane’s blog which I visited this morning. He now favours masks!

    What occurred in 1919. Well the Spanish flu did die out but not after it took a terrible toll.
    Could they have had lockdowns?
    I doubt it.
    You could not work from home . The federal government was quite small. It did not even have income tax for a start. This means it could not help anyone at all. It was also heavily in debt after a world war. Why a person would compare it to now heaven only knows.

    Mater you are making a choice by being silly and saying you do not want a lockdown. We already know those countries who reduced covid had the better economic outcomes. Noah smith had a good article on this if you are interested.
    You also have yet to come to terms with the delta variant growing at an exponential rate here and we have a lockdown!
    India is very easy to explain. the data is very poor and thus should never be used. We know how bad it is was India because we saw (and some of us have Indian friends as well) to know people were in cars outside hospitals. they were on oxygen they had to buy themselves. An example of what occurs when the hospital system blows up!

    some people need to look up projection. Very insecure people feel the need to use disparaging language to others.

  16. Cassie of Sydney Avatar
    Cassie of Sydney

    “some people need to look up projection. Very insecure people feel the need to use disparaging language to others.”

    Moron.

    1
  17. rickw Avatar
    rickw

    Yeah but back then they weren’t trying to wreck the country….

  18. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Noah smith had a good article on this if you are interested.
    You also have yet to come to terms with the delta variant growing at an exponential rate here and we have a lockdown!

    I asked for a reference for your R=8 statement, not a word wall of shit.
    Put up, or shut up.

  19. Boambee John Avatar
    Boambee John

    Non Compos Mentis

    You also have yet to come to terms with the delta variant growing at an exponential rate here and we have a lockdown!

    You have yet to provide evidence to support this claim.

  20. feelthebern Avatar
    feelthebern

    Was there anything comparable to long covid which affects somewhere between 1 in 3 to 1 in 8 and then did it exacerbate other problems which led to deaths of 1 in 12?

    Long COVID = over ventilated patients during the initial stages of the COVID19.
    Health workers were so scared they caused long term damage to the people they were meant to care for.
    Amazing how “Long COVID” only impacts the cohort of people who stupidly trusted health providers at the start of the outbreak.

  21. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Was the reproduction rate 8 like the Delta variant?

    And before you make a further dick of yourself, I’d implore you to read this…again:

    The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1.

    So your contention is that ‘Delta’ is about 4x more contagious than the 1919 Spanish Flu?

  22. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare Avatar
    Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    Letting it ‘rip’ is not the easiest solution right now. Our politicians have turned us into an unexposed population faced with a sudden virus called Delta turned about R1.3 and we have thus no herd immunity and as yet only a limited vaccine immunity. That’s why they are ramping up the vaxx levels by ramping up the panic levels about something that is not 1919 Redux but which still can push up hospital admissons and deaths. It seems that the horse has bolted anyway and we need to cope with what happens now. After offering the vax widely by October 1 we should start looking at letting go of lockdowns except in areas of concern – immigrant areas, aboriginal areas and aged-care institutions. Lockdowns do a lot of harm and not much good from where we are currently placed. Our hospitals should be able to cope.

    By 1919 the Third Wave came through and was reasonably mild, but the 4th wave coming through in 2020 was a kicker. You can’t always predict these things.

  23. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Letting it ‘rip’ is not the easiest solution right now

    Lizzie,
    Two local kids have committed suicide in just this last week, and we are not that big of a town.

    Enough!

    It’s very easy. Give people their lives back.

    The point of the posts was to highlight that our forebears faced exactly the same dilemmas and uncertainties as we do today (probably even worse), yet they managed to find the testicular fortitude to make a considered, pragmatic, and, ultimately, inevitable decision.

    2
  24. Not Trampis Avatar
    Not Trampis

    Mater read what I said and then apologise. It is pretty well established within health circles. I have rarely known John to be so wrong on such a subject.

    The PPE in 1919 was not really up to speed was it. do you think that might be a factor?
    Spanish flu had mostly two waves of which the second was the most deadly and then died out.

    The spanish flu has no relevance for today.
    nothing compared to long covid which keeps people from work for long periods nor as far as I know di it exacerbate existing problems and kill people indirectly. If you make a reasonable assumptions that the counties with low vaccinations have more people die from the delta variant nearer 1% than 0.3% then you are advocating either killing or severely injuring a lot of people.

    We still do not know the long tern implications of long covid as yet.
    Let it rip is absurd because of the legal responsibilities of employers. you would end up with an informal lockdown

  25. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Mater read what I said and then apologise

    See that link button above the comment box?
    Link to something that says the R Value of ‘Delta’ is 8. You can do it. No harder than putting a mask on.

    BTW. The Victorian health authorities consider the standard surgical mask to be completely ineffective if you’ve had an exposure to a confirmed case. As a health worker, you can be wearing all the same PPE, but if you’re wearing a surgical mask as opposed to an N95…straight into isolation you go. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.

    By their own actions, will their mask policy be judged.
    If you can come up with an alternative theory, other than they consider them pointless, feel free to share.

  26. JC Avatar
    JC

    Oh no, Not Trampis (Homer) has found the blog. Get ready for a combined IQ drop of at least 70% with him posting comments here.

    Homer, is Skanke Ho really an Asian Warlords mistress? You clown Homer, you complete doofus.

  27. JC Avatar
    JC

    Mater:

    Don’t waste a single fraction of a second posting comments in direct reply to Homer. He’s the worst idiot on Australian blogs and I mean a thorough imbecile without qualification.

  28. Boambee John Avatar
    Boambee John

    Non Compos Trampis

    If you make a reasonable assumptions that the counties with low vaccinations have more people die from the delta variant nearer 1% than 0.3% then you are advocating either killing or severely injuring a lot of people.

    Please provide the basis for your “reasonable assumption”.

  29. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Spanish flu had mostly two waves of which the second was the most deadly and then died out.

    Wrong. It died out after it was “Let Rip!”.

    https://www.records.nsw.gov.au/archives/collections-and-research/guides-and-indexes/galleries/spanish-flu-1919

    Mortality
    In terms of loss of life, the ‘outbreak’ first wave of the disease was “comparatively mild” when contrasted with the second and third ‘high-mortality’ waves in 1919. Up until the middle of March 1919, only fifty people had died across NSW, while the second wave killed 1,542, and the third 4,302, with the peak occurring between the weeks ending 24 June and 8 July:

    1. (Outbreak wave) 27/1/1919 – 18/3/1919
    2. (High mortality wave) 19/3/1919 – 27/5/1919
    3. (Highest mortality wave) 28/5/1919 – 30/9/1919

    Look at the date on my post, and take note of the fact that it was a SMH article.

    Apologies?

  30. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Thanks JC.
    Noted.
    Binned.

    He came across as Bob-like anyway.

  31. Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare Avatar
    Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare

    The main difference for the third wave of H1N1 ‘Spanish’ influenza was that by this 1919 there was a lot of herd immunity around to fight off the virus. Our politicians have foolishly placed us in the situation of being a totally ‘unexposed’ population, so a fairly hefty viral ‘rip’ might be expected with a full opening up, even with a good level of vax immunity. I say ‘might’ because it is not at all certain that this is what would happen, for many people would take their own avoidance precautions, vaxed or not, and there may be a natural level of immunity due to previous Corona viruses as ‘colds’ as well as the vaxed immunity. Also viral exhaustion or loss of virulence might occur with increasing transmissability as the virus fights to survive in an increasingly vaxed environment. You can see they are trying to keep the lid on spread, but that horse has probably by now bolted anyway.

  32. Cassie of Sydney Avatar
    Cassie of Sydney

    “Matersays:
    August 19, 2021 at 6:08 pm
    Thanks JC.
    Noted.
    Binned.

    He came across as Bob-like anyway.”

    Noted…..Stevie from Brisbane has surfaced on another thread too.

  33. JC Avatar
    JC

    Mater says:
    August 19, 2021 at 6:08 pm

    Thanks JC.
    Noted.
    Binned.

    He came across as Bob-like anyway.

    Mater, trust me. He’s a million times more stupid than Numbernutz.

    Trampis (Homer) argued for years that when Mark Latham referred to a female journo, he didn’t mean she was a skanky whore. He was trying to argue that it meant there was a woman in Asia named Skanke Ho and she was an Asian warlord’s mistress.

    There’s no level of imbecility that could describe Homer’s imbecility.

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