25 responses to “Mater’s Musings #16: How Deadly?”

1. 

   Roger

   Aug 31, 2021 8:06 AM

   The Paywallian is today reporting on a survey that indicates that Australians are now more concered about their jobs and mental health than they are about another outbreak of the virus.

   It seems a majority now want to get off this crazy ride.

   4
2. 

   duncanm

   Aug 31, 2021 8:08 AM

   To be fair – Covid is much more contagious. That doesn’t excuse the lockdown mania.

   I had swine flu – it wasn’t pleasant, but it didn’t get any worse than a fever and feeling like shit for a couple of days.
3. 

   duncanm

   Aug 31, 2021 8:09 AM

   ps: the covid CFR also shows why pushing vaccines for anyone under the age of 50 is insanity.

   4
4. 

   Mater

   Aug 31, 2021 8:11 AM

   ps: the covid CFR also shows why pushing vaccines for anyone under the age of 50 is insanity.

   Absolutely!
   And pushing it for kids under 20…criminal!

   5
5. 

   Entropy

   Aug 31, 2021 8:26 AM

   Careful Duncanm, that kind of fact based approach got a Jeannette Young into trouble.

   1
6. 

   Roger

   Aug 31, 2021 8:47 AM

   In 2009, when QLD had c. 7 cases of swine flu, a feverish Jeannette Young was telling residents to stock up on tinned food and domestic essentials. One can only conclude that she was contemplating a lockdown way back then, thus anticipating the Chinese Communist method of dealing with a novel virus by 10 years. The Federal Minister for Health at the time, Nicola Roxon, had to slap her down.

   2
7. 

   Rabz

   Aug 31, 2021 8:52 AM

   About the only figure in the media that has made this comparison previously is Alan Jones. The really bizarre aspect of it all is that there was an existing national pandemic plan that emphasised a largely hands off approach in most instances.

   It’s enough to make you wonder if there aren’t more significant agendas at play given the absolutely hysterical destructive insanity of our beloved leaders’ response to this chimera over the last 18 months.

   Oh – and where did Swine Flu originate again? Those loathsome communist bastards will soon be gifting the planet with these viruses for as long as they can get away with it.

   The only issue now of any import is how we put a stop to this monstrous insanity and try to salvage some semblance of our previous way of life.

   There will need to be “a great reset”, but not the one Standartenführer Schwab and Prince Tampon have in mind.

   4
8. 

   Old School Conservative

   Aug 31, 2021 9:02 AM

   Thanks Mater.
   As one who is entwined with day to day matters and doesn’t deep dive into stats as you have done, I appreciate your findings and unashamedly use them with friends, family, and on other blogs.

   6
9. 

   Mater

   Aug 31, 2021 9:07 AM

   As one who is entwined with day to day matters and doesn’t deep dive into stats as you have done, I appreciate your findings and unashamedly use them with friends, family, and on other blogs.

   If that idiot Morrison, had half a brain, he’d use such figures to dampened the fear, explain that it’s not as bad as first thought, and release the public (or blackmail the Premiers to do so).

   No, instead he wants to stab our kids and get vaccination up to an arbitrary figure, with no guarantee of release anyway.

   6
10. 

    Mak Siccar

    Aug 31, 2021 9:09 AM

    Excellent work Mater. Send it to the likes of Allan Jones so that it can highlight the panic-ridden, destructive and disproportionate response inflicted on us by the spineless politicians and their health Naz1s.

    5
11. 

    thefrollickingmole

    Aug 31, 2021 9:20 AM

    This can be confirmed by harking back to th 2019 pandemic plan which was used as toilet paper by our wise mongs in government.
    https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/519F9392797E2DDCCA257D47001B9948/$File/w-AHMPPI-2019.PDF

    Page 21 should shame the devil, but has never been referenced by any journo.

    Its a high transmissability medium impact flu.

    ..
    The significance of transmissibility will vary depending on the stage of progress of the pandemic. It should also be considered that, as an influenza pandemic will be caused by a novel virus, there will be higher than usual vulnerability in the population to the virus. Community transmission is likely to become widespread quickly. The window of opportunity for measures aimed at controlling transmission may therefore be small.
    The capacity of the health system will also be considered to determine the degree to which systems will be able to manage the increased demand and which measures would need to be put in place to best use available resources.
    Indicators such as notifications, hospitalisations and availability of ICU beds may be used to determine the transmissibility, clinical severity and health system capacity respectively

    …
    This is what we are operating under.
    Does it seem to match?

    If clinical severity is high
    Widespread severe illness will cause concern and challenge the capacity of the health sector. Areas such as primary care, acute care, pharmacies, nurse practitioners and aged care facilities will be stretched to capacity to support essential care requirements. Heavy prioritisation will be essential within hospitals to maintain essential services and mortuary services will be under pressure. The demand for specialist equipment and personnel is likely to challenge capacity. Pressure on health services will be more intense, rise more quickly and peak earlier as the transmissibility of the disease increases. Healthcare staff may themselves be ill or have to care for ill family members, further exacerbating pressures on healthcare providers.
    AHMPPI 23
    Secondary care services, such as blood services and diagnostic services will be challenged to maintain
    capacities and the community focus will be on maintaining essential services. Pandemic emergency legislation may be needed to support pandemic specific activities. The level of impact may be similar to that of the 1918 H1N1 Spanish flu.

    2
12. 

    Real Deal

    Aug 31, 2021 9:43 AM

    And now according to news.com.au this morning via the hopefully sober Sam Maiden we now have a “Doomsday variant”. For the love of Pete when will this insanity be reigned in?
13. 

    Rorschach

    Aug 31, 2021 9:49 AM

    A quick drive-by…

    I saw another similar comparison except with hospital ICU beds. The thrust was that with H1N1 the system was stretched with something like 10-20k very sick patients. And they were treated with Tamiflu and other anti-virals … In comparison, it appears that today we can’t cope with a couple of hundred patients – and the policy is to send them home and quarantine there with little or no support bar maybe a phone call every couple of days…

    Might be worth looking into as well to get this out there.

    Something does not add up. Seems this is not a medical but rather a political decision.

    3
14. 

    Tom

    Aug 31, 2021 10:00 AM

    The Labor premiers have validated their blueprint for power without end and, as a bonus, getting rid of the federal LNP government:

    Popular support for the federal Coalition has fallen to its lowest level this term with a swing to fringe minor parties amid record Covid-19 cases and debate over bringing an end to lockdowns.

    But personal support for Scott Morrison has lifted as the Prime Minister seeks to wrest control of the national agenda with almost 60 per cent of the country’s population living under some form of social restriction.

    Scott Morrison is the dumbest prime minister of the past 30 years, signing his party’s death warrant while using his invention of the “national cabinet” to turn the federation into a series of warring tribes that take no notice of each other.

    But, hey, like a dumb leftard, he can celebrate the fact that it’s making him personally more popular.

    2
15. 

    calli

    Aug 31, 2021 10:02 AM

    On hospital beds. There’s also this to consider:

    In Victoria, the figures are even worse with 156 teenagers a week rushed to hospital for self harm, an 88 per cent increase when the year to May 2021 was compared with 2020, figures from the Victorian Agency for Health Information obtained by The Weekend Australian revealed.

    That’s from the DM yesterday. We have 40 a day treated in NSW. Assuming that a fair whack are admitted overnight for treatment and assessment, that’s a huge strain on the hospital system right there.

    Trying to find the average number of hospital beds available at any given time is like finding a needle in a haystack. My suspicion is that these mental health admissions, ultimately caused by idiotic government mandates, is bumping other “non essential” treatments and surgeries. I think Mater found a 6.3% increase in deaths from a variety of causes. Perhaps they were all preventable.

    2
16. 

    Shy Ted

    Aug 31, 2021 11:09 AM

    People have forgotten how debilitating the actual flu is. It puts the most robust of people on their back. Interestingly, in recent years, people with the most minor of symptoms, perhaps a cough or vague feeling of fatigue, have had investigations showing only Influenza A or B. Still waiting for SARS Cov2 to be clinically identified.

    2
17. 

    Roger

    Aug 31, 2021 11:55 AM

    The conclusion of a useful primer on the Western response to the Chinese virus:

    For political watchers, it’s been baffling to watch leaders muddle through the most inexplicable geopolitical debacle since the Thirty Years’ War. It is equally terrifying to know that a policy catastrophe of this scale is possible in the 21st century. But judging by his regime’s activities and the story of how all this began, at least one world leader was well aware of this potential.

    For Xi Jinping, lockdown was never about a virus. It was about sending a message: that stripped of all disguise, the illusion of virtue, competence, and commitment to human rights among the Western political class is nothing more than conformity with easily subvertible norms and institutions passed down by prior generations. As lockdown policies grind on into their 18th month, it’s increasingly difficult to disagree with him.

    If that was the plan, there’s one Premier in Australia who has been particularly eager to ride Xi’s totalitarian train. If there is to be a day of reckoning when it is all over, which there must be, Daniel Andrews has some questions to answer.

    RTWT

    5
18. 

    Rabz

    Aug 31, 2021 1:11 PM

    Andrews has some questions to answer

    Preferably while dangling from a noose.

    1
19. 

    Jo Nova

    Sep 1, 2021 1:45 AM

    In a typical year Influenza infects a fifth of the population and most don’t get tested. So the case fatality rates will be heavily skewed by the number of undetected flu cases. (Real flu mortality or IFR — will be a lot lower).

    Given that we were testing 30 to 1000 people to find one case of Covid, its likely there were far fewer undetected cases. So while the CFR graphs are very interesting they don’t mean what they seem.

    Ro of Flu is 1.4.
    Ro of Covid is 2 – 6.

    Covid has much more potential for exponential growth. I know I won’t be popular for saying it. But it took a lot of restrictions to keep the case numbers down. Covid hospitalizes a lot more people than Influenza does. NSW hospitals are on the edge even though less than 0.2% of the whole NSW population is infected. Usually diseases that hospitalize more also have higher mortality rates.
20. 

    Mater

    Sep 1, 2021 2:21 PM

    Ro of Flu is 1.4.
    Ro of Covid is 2 – 6

    If your point about additional undiagnosed cases hold true, how do you know the R value of Swine Flu was 1.4? Did Swine Flu have the same tendency towards asymptomatic cases?

    I’m doing analysis based on historical data, the same historical data the government apparently uses to write and direct policy. We can acknowledge it’s flaws, and still pull useful stuff from it. The CFR’s for the young are so stark, I think we can accept it as read that 2009 posed a significantly greater risk to those under 50.

    The fact remains that there has been 39448 Covid cases for those under 50, and 14 of those have died, some likely not solely from the virus.

    As for stretched hospitals, even a brief reading of the history of the 2009 event will show you that today’s predicament is not terribly different. They were stretched back then, too. That is the point of my post. Besides, I wasn’t raised to believe that my freedom was wholly dependant on the capacity and capability of our hospital system. Universal healthcare is a ‘socialistic’ system, but surely it doesn’t need to adopt all the traits.
21. 

    Arky

    Sep 1, 2021 3:25 PM

    In a typical year Influenza infects a fifth of the population and most don’t get tested. So the case fatality rates will be heavily skewed by the number of undetected flu cases.

    ..
    Hmmmm…
    

    Second, national rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations and in-hospital death are adjusted for the frequency of influenza testing and the sensitivity of influenza diagnostic assays, using a multiplier approach

    -CDC.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#References
    ..
    Sounds like you need to take that up with the CDC modellers.
22. 

    Jo Nova

    Sep 1, 2021 4:00 PM

    Mater: “If your point about additional undiagnosed cases hold true, how do you know the R value of Swine Flu was 1.4?”

    They don’t have to track every single case to estimate R0. Just careful tracking in single towns say or for short times in a locality.

    Arky: “Burden” of influenza means an estimated guesstimate that tries to take into account that most influenza cases are not tested. For years it was exaggerated and (you’ll be shocked) used to combine all kinds of pnumonia as “influenza” to scare people into taking the flu vax.
    Beware: the famous Flu death tally is “highly adjusted” and Coronavirus is still 10 times worse
23. 

    Mater

    Sep 1, 2021 4:51 PM

    Jo,
    I’ll commit to have a read of your blog post that you linked to and put some thought into it. However, forgive me for noting that I’ve provided you with references from government sites, while you’ve thrown around a lot of conjecture, with little evidence.

    You note specifically in your response to Arky that government exaggerate about flu cases to encourage vaccination. However, whenever I’ve suggested that Covid cases/death were misclassified to achieve a particular end, I’m called a conspiracy theorist.

    Does the kids with Meningitis ring a bell?

    We either accept all the data as given (with a healthy scepticism), or we accept that it’s all questionable…but it cuts both ways.

    1
24. 

    Mater

    Sep 1, 2021 4:58 PM

    Also, whilst we are talking about misclassification, it seems remarkable that the Flu completely disappeared in July 2020.

    Covid seems capable of swinging back into action when restrictions are eased, but not the poor flu. It’s dead, dead, dead.
25. 

    Arky

    Sep 1, 2021 5:21 PM

    For years it was exaggerated and (you’ll be shocked) used to combine all kinds of pnumonia as “influenza” to scare people into taking the flu vax.

    ..
    Ummmm.
    So what you’re saying is: “They lie about the severity and spread of communicable diseases in order to make people get vaccinated?
    Uh…

    1