Mater’s Musings #47: YOUR risk of dying from Covid-19

In its push to get you vaccinated, here we have the Federal Health Department giving YOU a definitive answer on what YOUR risk of dying from Covid-19 is:

Source: Australian Government – Department of Health (AZ Propaganda Webpage)

Where do they get that figure from, I hear you ask. Well, when you follow the link they provide, it takes you to the website of an organisation called the ‘Australian Academy of Science’. Take note that they have science in their title, as I’ll loop back to that in a bit.

Anyway, here is the relevant snippet from THEIR page:

Source: Australian Academy of Science

18,628 cases, 800 deaths, put it in a calculator, give it a good shake, throw some salt over the left shoulder for good measure and…voila…everyone has a 42,000 in a million chance of dying, if they contract Covid!

Let’s be kind and put aside the issue that in August of 2021, they are using figures from June 2020 (hardly current in a fast-moving situation – but I think we know why). Let’s instead look at those 800 deaths between 9 Jun-18 Oct 2020:

Put your hand up if anyone thinks that if I’m sitting in the 40-49 age bracket, my risk of dying from Covid looks to be the same as someone in the 80-89 age bracket, even during this cherry-picked time period.

Didn’t think so!

Obviously, to work out the true (statistical) risk for these age brackets, I’d need the number of cases for each group, but if there is one historical dataset that is difficult to find, it’s stuff broken down by age bracket. I wonder why?

It’s appalling that the Government can get away with such blatant misrepresentations. It’s worse that the organisation, that they quoted, claims (in its title) to represent ‘science’. It would be an absolute travesty, however, if this level of intellectual rigour (or lack thereof) is what has been used in calculating the cost/benefit analysis which is behind the vaccine mandates.

This is dishonest rot. They ought to be ashamed of themselves, but that would require some morals and self-awareness.

39 thoughts on “Mater’s Musings #47: YOUR risk of dying from Covid-19”

  1. There is also the issue of the number and nature of co-morbidities associated with each age group ergo, did they die with COVID or from COVID.

    The heading should also be fixed for the grammatical error


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  2. 42,000 in a million IF you catch it.

    After 2 years, according to Wordometer there has been approx 600,000,000 cases.

    World pop around 8 billion.

    At this rate it’s about 15 to 1 to catch it.

    Under 60, no health issues and the Omnicron variant?

    Probably better odds than taking the starter pack.

    Jab stories.


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  3. I did see somwhere that in that period referred to, the average age for deaths was + 70 and 72.5 percent had co-morbidities.

    Also, only AZ is mentioned.

    Mustn’t taint Pfizer’s good name.


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  4. They also claim that the risk of death from (the first dose of) the AZ vaccine is less than 1 in a million.

    Yet I recall last year when AZ was introduced in Australia. Europe got it first and by the time we got it, five European countries had halted its use.

    “Don’t worry about that” said the Australian government “it’s perfectly safe”. Then someone in their 40s died after taking it.

    “Don’t worry about that” said the Australian government “it’s perfectly safe for those under 50”. Then someone in their 50s died after taking it.

    “Don’t worry about that” said the Australian government “it’s perfectly safe for those under 60”. Then someone in their 70s died after taking it …

    Dunno how many doses had been given by that time, but how anyone could trust these imbeciles ever again is beyond me.


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  5. how anyone could trust these imbeciles ever again is beyond me.

    Yes. We are now entering new territory in Australia thanks to these “conservative” idiots – a low trust state.

    In future, the velvet glove will be left in the drawer to rot. It will be the mailed fist of the tyrant that will “coerce” obedience.


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  6. So my chance of dying of the Wuflu if I catch a dose is 42.000 in 1,000,000.
    Putting it in terms I can understand this works out to 1 in 23…at least according to this bit of data.
    This is pure nonsense!
    Figures from around the world prove otherwise. As others have stated, co-morbidities and age are not considered.
    No wonder some of us call BS on the “science” and the “experts” regarding the Wuflu.
    Yet the sheep will believe this rubbish.


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  7. It would be interesting too to see the Covid stats offset against normal annual flu hospitalisations and deaths. “Cases” would be tricky to quantify given that most would go unreported.
    moderated

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  8. It was increasingly apparent throughout 2021, and certainly by the end of the year, that the key to understanding the fraud perpetrated on people around the world is in the statistics relating to this virus.

    Unfortunately, as everyone knows here, statistics can be notorious manipulated. But, even more unfortunately, few of us everyday nongs are capable of deciphering bloody numbers! Me, especially! So thank you to those people who have attempted to enlighten us. Norman Fenton, in the UK, was fantastic in explaining the distortion of the Covid mortality figures in the classification of those deaths within 2 weeks of vaccinate as “unvaccinated”.

    Of course, as has been explained by many even using the Commonwealth department statistics, the reality of the very low risk of dying from the virus, or even of being seriously ill, is very low for most people. But this has failed to hold back the tidal wave of Fear.

    During 2022 the banality of Omicron may finally countered the Fear narrative. That is if Geert VanDen Bossche is not proved correct and evolutionary pressure caused by global vaccination does not produce lethal ADEs.


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  9. somewhere and everywhere just out of sight, maybe under a rock nearby , there are teams of Health, Justice, and Political will having another meeting.

    They’re steering, working, planning, legislating, and marketing

    Another committee and you’re not on it

    And no, they are not stupid … some of them can even do fractions


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  10. Mater, there is an age breakdown of cases and deaths on the Feds D of Health’s Coronavirus Case numbers and Statistics page.
    The headline figure says there have been 2253 deaths from 430,700 plus cases to yesterday. That’s about 5200 per million.
    For the 40’s age group the figures say 47 deaths in 41,000 cases. Or about 2300 per million.
    Curiously, when you add the case numbers given in the Cases by age chart they only tally to roughly 350,000, not even close to the headline fig. Of 430,000 given in the tile at the top of the page.
    Ditto for deaths. The Deaths by age figs sum to over 2500, 270 more than the headline figure.
    The experts give 4 reasons why the figures might not be correct; delayed reporting, the system was down(lol), unknown age of victims(really?) and unknown sex victims(wtf?).
    This humble tradie is not filled with confidence in my government.


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  11. 42,000 out of 1 million when extrapolated to the Australian population = 1 million out of 25 million.
    According to other “experts” we are all going to get one or other of the variants. Ergo,there’s going to be one million dead Australians if we don’t keep our boosters going for eternity.
    We must isolate, lockdown, quarantine and listen to the “experts” or we’re doomed.


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  12. There has been no cost benefit Analysis Mater, why would they becuase they are thinking of the children.

    Quite so, Entropy.
    They’re thinking “if jabbing every one of the little brats with a potentially lethal chemical that’s useless to them saves my life, it’s worth it”.


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  13. Mater, there is an age breakdown of cases and deaths on the Feds D of Health’s Coronavirus Case numbers and Statistics page.

    Try getting it for dates in the past.


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  14. With all this lying and corruption (causing unnecessary deaths), does anyone actually think things are going back to normal??

    There are too many skeletons in closets, closets that will remain securely locked while they have their hands firmly on the levers of power. To relinquish power will mean long gaol sentences and worse, depending on which part of the word they operate in.
    (Example: While Dan XiMan controls the VikStasi & the judiciary & public service, nobody can touch him)


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  15. So my chance of dying of the Wuflu if I catch a dose is 42.000 in 1,000,000.
    Putting it in terms I can understand this works out to 1 in 23…at least according to this bit of data.

    Yes, they use 42,000 in 1,000,000 because everyone – even the Covid alarmists who desperately want to believe that it’s an incredibly dangerous virus – would instantly recognise that a 1 in 23 Covid death rate has been vastly inflated. 42,000 in 1,000,000 requires a little more mental processing to come to the same conclusion. Easy to comprehend the numerator as a large number and the denominator as a much larger number, which seems more plausible.

    Even shearing three zeroes off each number would make the claim more easily understood as being preposterously high.


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  16. Ok smartarse, provide it for the dates 9 Jun-18 Oct 2020.

    In fact, I’ll make the challenge easier for you. Give me the figures from three days ago.

    Moral of the story:
    People can only do statistical analysis if they have historical data to work with.
    The government have it. We do not.


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  17. WA’s Dear Leader — he of the granite jaw and the steely resolve to protect the citizens of the state from the horrors of Covid, even if it means destroying the economy — is considering the options open to him after February 5, the projected date for abolishing the hard border with the rest of Australia. As reported in the West Australian of December 31 (page 9, if you are interested) “WA is likely to catapult from the least restricted jurisdiction in Australia to imposing some of the harshest measures in the country come February 5”. Mr M adds an ominous threat: “It may well be that [the unvaccinated] won’t be able to go to restaurants, cafes, bars, pubs”.

    If these “harshest measures” are to be imposed on the people of WA, we will become a new East Germany, complete with our own Stasi and Gestapo-like police force.


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  18. A sibling of mine seems to derive a bizarre and macabre felicity from the case numbers for the Omigod strain.

    Tens of thousands! Damn this foul government that allowed the News Year’s festivities – instead of stationing police on every corner with explicit instructions, should they see a person venturing into their front yard, to shoot to heal. “Hey man, I got your two shots right here! Gut then head!”

    It is only by main force that I have resisted mildly asking ‘How many of them have died?’

    The reason I do not ask is her being a self-abasing supplicant at the alter of the ABC. Like a neonate kangaroo she has attached herself to the teat of that foul creature and the nipple has swelled to fill her mouth such that if someone were to try to detach her it would tear her mouth and cheeks open.

    I have no doubt if I were to pose the question she quickly summon up all matter of claims from organisations she had never heard of before, all carefully sifted through for their agreeable claims, and delivered with the conviction usually reserved for arithmetic truths. She would say that ‘the International Institute of Medical Certitude and Knowing Stuff’ had stated that Covid had actually killed the dinosaurs with precisely the same absolute epistemological authority that she might at some other time assert that an Amazon package still in Indiana cannot possibly be considered to have been delivered in Orange.

    But it is interesting to see the strange muddled shadow-puppetry that ABC hounds think counts as ‘doing something’.


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  19. The problem with these figures is that the political class will maintain that they would have been much worse if it wasn’t for their valiant interventions.

    ‘Calamity’ Scott has already claimed he has saved at least 30,000 lives by his scorched earth policy.

    I don’t think they’ll ever be held to account for what they’ve done to us.


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  20. Mater, if the stats from NSW for their 2021 outbreak are anything to go by, around 3/4s of the cases where in the under 40s. Looking at the numbers the cfr is <1% for 40-49, so <10,000 in 1M at the very most.


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  21. I tabled data last year on this and people I show still reckon death is a 50/50 proposition even double/triple vaxxed. They can’t be convinced.

    Oh and this year in Vic is worse – 92.8% double vaxxed.


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  22. Oh and this year in Vic is worse – 92.8% double vaxxed.

    They are now considered unvaxxed until they have their booster, and the one after that and the one after…


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  23. The higher the vaxx rate, the higher the case rate. Read all about it here.

    Has anyone in VIC/NSW paused to question just why, considering both states are now apparently >90% vaxxed, they are consistently experiencing record numbers of ‘daily cases’?

    Where is the media? Investigative journalism? (I should probably add a ‘LOL’ here..)

    And, let’s not forget, that while ‘cases’ mean essentially SFA, and while the ‘moronic’ variant is basically just a cold, the ‘vaccines’ have directly killed hundreds of thousands globally.

    Steve Kirsch has a standing offer of a million-dollar reward to anyone who can show his team’s most recent estimate of at least 340,000 deaths in the USA alone is wrong.

    Why would the various Australian government ‘scientists’ not easily pick up a lazy mil?
    Could it be because they are lying?


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