Mater’s Musings #48: YOUR risk of dying from Covid-19 – Part 2

Ok, due to the interest generated from my post yesterday, and the efforts to quantify the ACTUAL risk versus government propaganda, I took a path that is usually an enigma to my professionalism. I extrapolated off some grainy, low fidelity screenshots of government graphs which I found on the two relevant infographics (found here). I then used the age group percentage and applied it to the total Victorian case figure provided (18,628) to produce a rough number of cases per age group.

This is all pretty imprecise and, quite frankly, is an insult to my fastidious nature, but it does give a reasonable indication in terms of order of magnitude.

The claim (again):

Sources: Australian Academy of Science

The results from the very rough extrapolation of screenshots for the period 9 Jun-18 Oct 20, in Victoria:

So, as you can see, you need to be 70+ to be within cooee of the government provided figure. In fact, the figures for those below 50 years old show the government figure to be farcical.

The observant types will notice that they significantly understated the risk for those 70+ years of age…the very demographic which they SHOULD have been targeting, but given that the claim was published sometime after Aug 2021, it’s clear they were trying to scare the unvaccinated, younger demographic.

This is upside-down world stuff. Not what I’d expect from a responsible government.

37 responses to “Mater’s Musings #48: YOUR risk of dying from Covid-19 – Part 2”

  1. bemused Avatar

    This is upside-down world stuff. Not what I’d expect from a responsible government.

    When was the last time that we had a responsible government, state or federal?

    What is more concerning is not the deaths (predicted or real), it’s how many now in hospital have been vaccinated, one shot, two shots or more. These details are now state secrets.

  2. calli Avatar

    Thanks for all your efforts in presenting these figures, Mater.

    And these are for 2020 and Alpha. No reason for lockdowns then, except to take reasonable precautions for the protection of the very elderly or vulnerable.

    Now there is no excuse at all.

  3. rickw Avatar


    Is it worth reposting the data from the Ruby Princess? Whilst the demographics of this 5 week test isn’t exactly representative it at least represents a sizeable and contained test sample. All other data should be broadly consistent with it.

  4. wal1957 Avatar


    When was the last time that we had a responsible government, state or federal?

    Exaggerations, scaremongering and outright lies have been par for the course.
    All exacerbated and cheered on by the meejia of course!

  5. Aaron Avatar

    We had better hope another variant doesn’t mutate.
    We are out of sync with the Northern hemi who began
    vaccines in autumn ( approx).

    Never thinking of waning efficiency.

    Imagine winter coming on and many of the vaxxed are already boosted and running out of time.

    Eek. You would want to hope the idea of damaged immune systems from the shots is wrong.

  6. Angus Black Avatar
    Angus Black

    This analysis vastly overstates the danger even for the elderly.

    Firstly, deaths from COVID are overstated.

    While it’s pretty clear whether or not you’ve actually died – I think we can trust even the CMOs in ALP states with that – the cause of that death is less clear in many cases (in the elderly, for example, where comorbidities abound). The “precautionary principle” (never was there such a utterly stupid principle) has required that if COVID could have contributed, then COVID was responsible.

    Infections are (arguably, massively) undercounted:

    Amongst the most certain characteristics of COVID is that infections are often entirely asymptomatic and very often only mildly symptomatic. Contact tracing has been a shambles – partly due to utter incompetence, but intrinsically as a consequence of unsymptomatic/barely symptomatic carriers. Only a small proportion of the infected even tried to access testing. Furthermore, testing has been difficult to access for a variety of reasons. Even allowing for the false positives, formal positive diagnosis is a pretty hit and miss affair.

    So the early 2020 figures are utterly misleading.

    Now that testing is more far more widespread, it seems that the consequence of infection is found to be much lower – to some extent, that is due to delta & omicron being milder (certainly that is the messaging), but I’d suggest it’s more likely to be a consequence of far more widespread testing. In essence, the change is at least partly a consequence of a reduction in the level of undercounting the infected.

    Similarly, governments are now trying to release the stranglehold on the population (actually on the economy) so the messaging is changing – we’re now hearing, eg, that a significant proportion of COVID patients are in hospital due to something other than their infection…and deaths which once would have been COVID deaths are now being more sensible recategorised as due to the co-morbidities that really did kill.

    It is becoming clear that the significance of the pandemic has been vastly overstated, the consequences of the “safety at all costs” response have been vastly understated, governments finally recognise that the narrative needs to change.

    Once the snowball builds up momentum, rolling down the hill, it’s hard to stop it though!

  7. Damon Avatar

    Not to decry your efforts, mater, but that (or equivalent) information was available in March/April 2020. And with ~90% of the population vaccinated, the patterns of susceptibility are exactly the same.

  8. Slim Cognito Avatar
    Slim Cognito

    Being in the 50 – 59 range, I am a bit concerned that the probability of death has the mark of the beast. Can you please round up or down?

  9. Zipster Avatar

    it’s clear they were trying to scare the unvaccinated, younger demographic.

    we can only speculate as to why the governments are deliberately lying to us and why they are hell bent on vaccinating the entire population even with some quite severe risks.

    My guess is they know, like everyone else does, the communists have a lot more of these bioweapons at the ready,after all the CIA was balls deep in the design process.

  10. Damon Avatar

    “it’s clear they were trying to scare the unvaccinated, younger demographic”
    It is easy to attribute to mischief that which can readily b explained by stupidity.

  11. Dr Faustus Avatar
    Dr Faustus

    This is all pretty imprecise and, quite frankly, is an insult to my fastidious nature, but it does give a reasonable indication in terms of order of magnitude.

    I wouldn’t be too insulted. Your results mirror those published for other populations.

    Readers might be interested in the heat map presentation of UK Covid deaths by age rolled out across the pandemic.

    Scroll down one frame to Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death age demographics.

    Even at the peak of unvaccinated Covid, it was mainly claiming the elderly, occasionally reaching down for the comorbid 50’s. Post vaccination rollout, it seems to be mopping up the odd elderly straggler.

    Just a wild hairy-arsed theory, but there seems to be the basis for a management plan, right there.

  12. Dot Avatar

    I would want a breakdown of illness, severe illness and fatalities, by unvaccinated CFR vs vaccinated CFR taking into account comorbidities, age, underlying conditions but also by variant – hopefully also natural immunity or prior CV-19 infection can be also controlled for – and by vaccine/round of vaccination.

    Then look at the same demography vs vaccine injury, severe vaccine injury and death – and by vaccine and phase of vaccination.

    Then again purely for vaccine efficacy on “jabs” 1, 2 and 3 (and maybe 4) and by vaccine.

    Am I asking too much?

    Then compare different treatments with and without vaccines, alone and in combination and by disease progression and the above controls.

    … surely… someone has this somewhere???

  13. bemused Avatar

    … surely… someone has this somewhere???

    If someone did and they were foolish enough to publish it, the death squads would be onto him within moments. Then the PR machine would go into overdrive debunking everything.

  14. lotocoti Avatar

    … surely… someone has this somewhere???

    Be patient.
    Doubtless such information will become available per the relevant Archives Act.
    Bearing in mind the usual caveats:
    This file contains the complete set of papers, except for a number of secret documents, a few others which are part of still active files … and the normal withdrawal of papers whose publication could give grounds for an action for libel or breach of confidence or cause embarrassment …
    H/T Yes, Minister.

  15. Mater Avatar

    Thanks for the feedback, everyone.

    Just so I’m not misunderstood, I absolutely agree that these figures are deceptive and the issue of co-morbidities and dying of versus with, should/must be considered. The Victorian Nursing home debacle is also incorporated into these figure, so that should also enter any analysis.

    That said, the aim of this post was merely to demonstrate that the government massively misrepresented even their own simplistic figures, and sold a pup to the public. It only gets more disgusting from there.

  16. MatrixTransform Avatar

    Scroll down one frame to Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date of death age demographics.

    and that, is why I love a Heat Map

  17. Megan Avatar

    This is upside-down world stuff. Not what I’d expect from a responsible government.

    I applaud your optimism that there is such a unicorn as responsible government.

    Certainly no signs in Oz, not even the slightest sign of a unicorn sparkle in the last 2 years. Sweden, on the other hand…

  18. jupes Avatar

    Superb stuff Mater. Thanks.

  19. areff Avatar

    From The Federalist:

    DC Health is giving out “Home COVID-19 Testing Kits” at libraries across the capital city. At the majority of these sites, you’ll be handed two plastic, red, white, and blue envelopes per person. “Muriel Bowser, Mayor,” they read at the bottom. “”

    “Isn’t that wonderful!” you might be thinking, as you tear open the seal. “I want to be sure these winter sniffles aren’t COVID before I see my mother, or visit grandpa, or go away with some friends.”

    Inside the envelopes, you’ll find a one-ended Q-tip (a “Nasal Self Swab”), wrapped in plastic; an official-looking LabCorp test tube, wrapped in plastic; and instructions to report your name, race, age, and sex to the city government, stick the Q-tip up your nose, deposit it in the test tube, put the “specimen bag” in the return envelope and drop it off at “one of the District’s specimen collection boxes by 8 p.m. the same day.”

    Staring at this kit Wednesday morning, sniffling, I thought, “Why would I do that?” Seriously, why the hell would I do that? Do I live in Florida, where if seriously ill, I’ll be given access to monoclonal antibody treatments while family, friends, and neighbors go about their lives? Do I live in Georgia or Texas, where I’d receive the same? Or Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, or Louisiana? Or do I live in a city where the numbers will be rushed to the press, schools will be shuttered, mask mandates will be extended, new restrictions on the eternally wicked “unvaccinated” will be rolled out, and if I have a bad case I’ll have to drive hours to find a pharmacy willing to fill a doctor’s prescription? Have local health care “experts” done anything to gain my trust? Or have they done everything they possibly can to betray it?

    By and large, Omicron is the sniffles. A cold; maybe some aches, and the sniffles. If you live on the East Coast, you might already know more than a dozen people with Omicron and aside from an occasional fever, every one of them is fine.

    “But don’t forget,” the headlines blare – “a man died in Texas last week.” Don’t you dare believe your lying eyes. “Just because the per-individual risk of severe illness may be lower,” CNN’s resident doctor politician warns, “that doesn’t mean on a societal level Omicron doesn’t pose a real risk.” “Omicron’s cold-like symptoms mean UK guidance ‘needs urgent update,’” The Guardian newspaper screams.

    “You’re looking,” the president of the United States threatened, “at a winter of severe illness and death for yourselves, your families, and the hospitals you may soon overwhelm.”

    It’s like we’re not experiencing this bug ourselves; like we’re incapable of observing it in our friends and families, and seeing what it does. It’s like we trust the “experts” more than we trust ourselves; damn our eyes. But if we dare take a step back and process the very thing we’re told we’re living through, we might recognize – more than ever – the increasingly obvious truth that COVID is a construct: a word we’ve been trained to fear more than the disease itself.

    COVID means fear, control, and lockdowns because we’ve allowed people to make it mean fear, control, and lockdowns.

  20. Roger Avatar

    Mater 12.03pm last para (no cut and paste function presently):

    Which brings us to the question of why?

    I’m no fan of conspiracy theories, but there’s no shortage of information out there to work with for those so inclined.

    The more likely explanations are incompetence (never been a shortage of that in this government), panic and political expediency.

  21. WolfmanOz Avatar

    Well my 19yo daughter may have COVID – she went out partying with a number of her friends on New Year’s Eve (one of whom has returned a positive).

    She did her test yesterday morning and is still awaiting the results – I’d say a 1 in 5 chance based on the current stats.

    She’s isolating in her room (plus the back area of the house).

    She’s not too well but in all honesty it’s no more than a heavy cold.

    Wife and I are fine but are isolating in the front area of our home.

    No-one is stressed or concerned.

  22. Patrick Kelly Avatar
    Patrick Kelly

    There are probably many Cats unaware of this reincarnation. Only discovered it by accident today.

  23. Ed Case Avatar
    Ed Case

    The figures are still meaningless and the chances of death wildly overestimated.

    Okay, let’s say the 800 deaths figure is legit, and doesn’t include any of the 1,000 odd Flu deaths that occur annually in Victoria.
    Anyone seriously believe there’s only been 18,628 cases?
    You could multiply that figure by 10 and it would still be on the low side.
    What’s happening here is that you’re getting sidetracked by numbers the same way the Climate Change Deniers have.

  24. Botswana O'Hooligan Avatar
    Botswana O’Hooligan

    An example of the madness in print. The Brisbane Times trumpets–30 year old man dies from Covid– and then goes on in smaller print to say that he maybe died from Covid and the coroner is investigating (no doubt to state in due course that he did in some way, shape, or form die with or from Covid) and then states that the man in question was double vaccinated. The article then goes on to state that only one person in Qld has died from covid since April 2021.

  25. John A Avatar
    John A

    Damon says: January 3, 2022, at 10:15 am

    “it’s clear they were trying to scare the unvaccinated, younger demographic”

    It is easy to attribute to mischief that which can readily b explained by stupidity.

    820 hotel quarantine deaths was stupidity.

    Everything since then has been malice aforethought.

    Sherlock Holmes: “When you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

  26. Barry Avatar

    Morrison bells the cat – All the stats are contaminated, and are complete bullshit.

    Scott Morrison will push state and territory leaders to reconsider how they record Covid-19 hospitalisations, with many people admitted for other illnesses and only 51 infected patients on ventilators nationwide.

    “There are people being counted as being in hospital for Covid,” he said. “They didn’t go there for Covid. They went there for some other reason and that’s why they were admitted, and they’ve been tested when they’re there, and they’ve been found to have Covid.

  27. Barry Avatar

    US Non COVID Disease Deaths up 40% in 18-64yo.

    Real data from a life insurance company, whose business is statistics (and death, as it so happens).

    “Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.”

    It’s the vaxx, stupid!

  28. Damon Avatar

    “It’s like we’re not experiencing this bug ourselves”
    Trump had it; as far as we know, Biden has not.

  29. Bruce Avatar

    Then, there’s THIS:

    Fully vaccinated?

    That phrase continues to pop up in outbreak reports.

    I wonder why?

    No wonder the “CDC” and Kung Flu WHO had to “redefine” the meaning of “vaccine”.

    What kind of “vaccine” starts “losing its effectiveness” in a matter of WEEKS?

    And will only “work” if you keep jabbing people with the same stuff?

  30. RacerX Avatar

    In their calculation of death rates for a virus that in many doesn’t even produce symptoms they have made the assumption all cases were identified.

    The people we should be able to trust are either imbeciles and/or useful idiots in perpetuating a huge fraud against our once great country.

  31. bemused Avatar

    This will piss off a few companies:

    I wonder which government will be the first to ban it?

  32. Living the dream Avatar
    Living the dream

    I don’t get this? The risk measure of ignoring COVID is not arrived at by an assessment of results when thye virus is the subject of active suppression efforts. It is the measure where no unusual response is present. There are very few jurisdictions where that is the case, but you can see what happens in places where people/govt do not follow medical advice. (US had 36000 deaths this past fortnight, according to Johns Hopkins website.)

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