US 2022 Mid-Terms Thread

The latest indication of national sentiment:

Wow. Over half polled strongly disapprove of Biden. This carries over into the generic ballot:

Let’s look at latest polls for individual races:

GA Senate: Walker (R) +3 (RCP average Walker +0.6)

AZ Senate: Masters (R) +1 v Kelly (RCP avg Kelly +0.6)

NV Senate: Laxalt (R) +2 v Cortez Mastro (RCP avg Laxalt +2.7)

WI Senate: Johnson (R) +6 v Barnes (RCP avg Johnson +3.3)

OH Senate: Vance (R) +10 v Ryan (RCP average Vance +8)

NH Senate: Hassan (D) +3 v Bolduc (RCP avg Hassan +1.4)

PA Senate: Oz (R) +2.2 v Fetterman (RCP avg Oz +0.1)

Here is my prediction. In the Senate, like Gingrich, I think we are looking at a 53-55 R majority. In the House, I think we can expect something in the low 240s. Surprises in the Senate, I think, may include pick-ups in the NH and NV. I think Walker will win the GA Senate convincingly, less so Masters but he is a very good candidate and future of the party so I hope to see him get through and pick-up the Senate seat. Lake’s strong run for AZ Gov and the generic support for R should lift him over the line.

Time will reveal all.

724 thoughts on “US 2022 Mid-Terms Thread”

  1. I’m afraid Trump, the best POTUS ever, has gone.

    True, but don’t look back at the sunset, look over to the sunrise. We all loved him. But you know what Cronkers, Trump would be ruthless if someone didn’t work out too.

    Acting like the Grandpa could help too, you know.


    Report comment

    2
  2. Cassie of Sydneysays:
    November 9, 2022 at 7:14 pm
    “Annelise now saying the abortion issue did he GOP in.”

    Shows how dumb she is….the GOP are not done in. They’ll take the house and the senate is neck and neck.

    Annelise is doing what the media does, she is my setting the “narrative”, not reporting events.


    Report comment

    8
  3. Florida voted strongly to roll back the personal rights of women.
    The fascists are disguising themselves as good family men with morals and faith.
    Bastards!


    Report comment

    5
  4. As Governor DeSantis said today, “Florida held the line”.

    Governor DeSantis should be proud, he leads, he doesn’t buckle and he doesn’t capitulate.


    Report comment

    14
  5. I am not sure why you lot are so down on Trump. He wasn’t even on the ballot. He still controls the party with an iron fist. It’s basically a huge grift operation for his personal benefit now. He is not going to walk away from a money tree he worked so hard to secure.


    Report comment

    2
  6. The upshot of the whole thing is that here is a clear demonstration of what you can achieve once you have taken control of the education system for nearly two generations. Let’s face it, Barry O’Bama got elected twice on a clearly stated platform of making America weak.


    Report comment

    15
  7. He still controls the party with an iron fist. It’s basically a huge grift operation for his personal benefit now. He is not going to walk away from a money tree he worked so hard to secure.

    The only POTUS to lose money when in office.

    Not only do you have no dick but the orifice there has its exit on the back of your pinhead. Your piss taking is pathetic.

    But seriously Trump has to take an overview position now. DeSantis and Tulsi are the way.


    Report comment

    7
  8. @Monty. God bless us and save us. Trump was wealthy before entering politics. Why don’t you detail the financial dealings and current wealth of the two grifters from Arkansas who never made a dime except on the public purse. Non so blind as those that Will not see.


    Report comment

    16
  9. The upshot of the whole thing is that here is a clear demonstration of what you can achieve once you have taken control of the education system for nearly two generations.

    That and the msm; with a vigilant media the swamp would have been exposed.


    Report comment

    3
  10. “JCsays:
    November 9, 2022 at 8:16 pm
    We are in a dark age.

    I’m not sure about that.

    Not my cup of Expresso, but Meloni won in Italy.
    Musk owns Twitter and will change it for the better.
    CNN of all places is actually dumping its worst far left offenders and trying to go mainstream.

    It’s not all bad. If Twitter rights itself the other will have to follow.

    The problem is that by and large the left don’t ever hear different opinions unlike the Right.”

    Excellent comment JC. I’ve just spoken to my father who says similar. He said to me that he feels there are tremors of change but those tremors will induce pain, such as exorbitant power prices, blackouts and so on but we need those painful tremors before things can improve. However governments are being dictated to by creepy organisations such as the UN and WEF. This will change but it will involve pain.

    “The problem is that by and large the left don’t ever hear different opinions unlike the Right.””

    Quite so, but that’s because many on the right (not me) don’t speak up. It’s time we spoke up, stood up and held our ground. As an example, a few weeks after Yom Kippur, I broke the fast at a friend’s place. I was sitting at a table with a man who I know to be a leftist, something came up for discussion and I said very clearly that I was a conservative and rightwing. Well, the look on his face, he was lost for words and he became uncomfortable. Good, he and others need to hear more people say it. FUCK THEM.

    Oh and Bibi won…he’ back big time.


    Report comment

    16
  11. Things looking very good for Lake and Masters in AZ, and Lombardo and Laxalt in NV.

    Looking like reverse 2020 for Dems. Go to sleep thinking things looking up only to find they’re likely going to lose the Senate, possibly by 2 once the GA run-off is done.


    Report comment

    4
  12. I think the Trump era is pretty much over. It hurts me to say this because I really feel for the guy as he was Wussiagated, endured two politically driven impeachment attempts and had the election stolen. I think the GOP needs to come back from him and go a new candidate. It should be either Youngkin or DeSantis.

    Agreed.
    He kicked the door off it’s hinges, threw in a grenade and showed the way.


    Report comment

    3
  13. None of these TV experts have mentioned the Dems trillion dollar cash give aways as a factor in their better than expected result.
    Seems to me that if this is all you get from that kind of bribe, what happens when the money isn’t there any more?


    Report comment

    3
  14. 132andBush says:
    November 9, 2022 at 8:47 pm

    I think the Trump era is pretty much over.
    Agreed.
    He kicked the door off it’s hinges, threw in a grenade and showed the way.

    I don’t know what to make of it, he is very well liked by a lot of people but equally if not more disliked by the rest.
    Wonder what would’ve happened to him if he had retired quietly?
    Would have the Dems let him be?


    Report comment

    1
  15. Ed Casesays:
    November 9, 2022 at 8:09 pm
    A fresh face like DeSantis will have to be matched by a similar Dem candidate.
    Not necessarily.
    If the Republican Party continue whacking the American people over the head about Abortion, the Democrats could win with anyone, even Joe.

    Richard Cranium

    Have you ever considered how much better the world would be had Mother accepted your views on abortion? All those backpackers still roaming the world!


    Report comment

    2
  16. m0nty-fa

    It’s basically a huge grift operation for his personal benefit now. He is not going to walk away from a money tree he worked so hard to secure.

    But enough about the Bidens.


    Report comment

    5
  17. rosie says:
    November 9, 2022 at 8:54 pm

    Trump is too old for 2024.

    You know, the left/msm would curve ball this easily. They would turn around and say that the retiring Hiden was a mistake at that age and people voting for Trump would be doing it again.


    Report comment

    2
  18. m0nty says:
    November 9, 2022 at 8:57 pm

    One of the biggest losers of the night is Trafalgar Group, and those like db who treated their polls as gospel. They whiffed bigly.

    Yeah, we should used MSNBC’s pollsters. Far better. Far more in tune.


    Report comment

    2
  19. But seriously Trump has to take an overview position now. DeSantis and Tulsi are the way.
    You’re not trying very hard anymore, are you?
    Trump picked a team of shithouse candidates, none of whom won.
    He’s a dud, they’re duds, and Tulsi is a Hindu Dindu who was a Democrat until last week.


    Report comment

    1
  20. Anyone putting Trump ahead of DeSantis for 2024 is mad.
    Go and read the man’s bio.
    Scholar, sportsman, military, real Christian, hot wife, lovely kids, successful Governor and fighter of woke zombies.


    Report comment

    10
  21. Scholar

    The military side is impressive, but he schooling was incredible too.

    After high school, DeSantis studied history at Yale University. He was captain of Yale’s varsity baseball team and joined the Delta Kappa Epsilon fraternity.[9][10] He was an outfielder on the Yale baseball team; as a senior in 2001, he had the team’s best batting average at .336.[11][12][13][14] While attending Yale he worked a variety of jobs, including as an electrician’s assistant and a coach at a baseball camp.[5] DeSantis graduated from Yale in 2001 with a B.A. magna cum laude.[15]

    After Yale, he taught history and sports for a year at Darlington School. Former students there recall him teaching the Civil War from a perspective that slavery was not okay but that the slaveholding Confederacy arguendo had reason to fight.[16] He attended Harvard Law School, graduating in 2005 with a Juris Doctor cum laude



    Report comment

    1
  22. One of the biggest losers of the night is Trafalgar Group, and those like db who treated their polls as gospel. They whiffed bigly.

    Did they? Will have to look at each of the pollsters, their predictions, and the final results.


    Report comment

    1
  23. “Farmer Gezsays:
    November 9, 2022 at 8:56 pm
    The Dems need Trump far more than the GOP.”

    Yep. The Demonrats and the MSM need Trump, he’s their whipping boy.

    If DeSantis runs and wins the nomination, you can be sure that the left will pile on him the way they did with Trump. They’ll throw the usual names, in fact they’ve already thrown names at him, calling him a white supremacist, a Nazi, an anti-Semite….yada yada yada. Of course DeSantis is none of these things, no doubt he raked in most of the large Jewish vote in Florida today (he’s passionately pro-Israel), he’s not a Nazi (sorry fat fascist fuckwit, you won’t be able to travel to Florida to try and punch him….and you know what, he’d punch back) and he isn’t a white supremacist. But if they try and as we know the left can’t help themselves, I don’t think it would stick with DeSantis and it might finally revolt some people. Just looking at the footage of DeSantis today, with his beautiful wife and three exquisite small children, Americans love this, after two elderly men, and yes I know Trump is in rude and robust health, but I really think many Americans would look warmly at DeSantis.


    Report comment

    13
  24. Things looking very good for Lake and Masters in AZ

    What are you basing that on? The machines in Maricopa are now malfunctioning; they did Tump in and they’re now aiming at Kari.


    Report comment

    2
  25. Re De Santis

    ” the big Republican Donors are behind him.”

    Others have that as the flag of the Uniparty

    “DeSantis Megadonor, Billionaire Head of Citadel Investments Ken Griffin, Explains Why He Purchased Ron DeSantis for 2024 and What He Expects from His Investment
    November 6, 2022 | Sundance | 781 Comments”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/11/06/desantis-megadonor-billionaire-head-of-citadel-investments-ken-griffin-explains-why-he-purchased-ron-desantis-for-2024-and-what-he-expects-from-his-investment/


    Report comment

    2
  26. Who is more at fault, Trump for picking dud candidates or the local GOPs for offering up nobody good to pick?

    A lot of old school Chamber of Commerce type candidates were scared away. You lot would say that’s a good thing, though.


    Report comment

  27. Trump picked a team of shithouse candidates, none of whom won.

    Vance. We’ll see about Kari; if she loses that will be a tragedy.

    And I didn’t realise how much Tulsi excites you; your crotchless panties are literally pulsating.


    Report comment

    6
  28. m0nty says: November 9, 2022 at 8:10 pm

    4am vote dumps in GA, NV and AZ are landing.

    And right on cue, the estimated number of uncounted Senate ballots in Arizona suddenly went up from 650k (-pundits) to 900k (-NYT) as relayed by Poso and Andrew on Charlie Kirk Show earlier. (Similar to how the steal was done in key states in 2020.)

    Next ballot reports from Arizona in about 4 hours.


    Report comment

  29. We’ll see about Kari; if she loses that will be a tragedy.

    You know, look I’m fine with you liking her as it’s each to his own. I found her a little too fake stoushy, trying to act like a female Trump when tussling with press idiots.


    Report comment

    1
  30. Trafalgar’s final Senate polls:

    Georgia Senate – Walker +3
    Arizona Senate – Masters +1
    Nevada Senate – Laxalt +5
    Ohio Senate – Vance +10
    North Carolina Senate – Budd +6

    They also had Oz winning PA by 2, Bolduc winning NH by 1, and the Dems only winning CO by 2. An average of four points wrong in each poll.

    They don’t deserve a B rating on that performance.


    Report comment

    2
  31. What are you basing that on?

    Charlie Kirk show as Berka reports above. They have people reporting from the counting room or connected to the campaign. It’s not just the uncounted votes remaining, the are breaking at worst 60:40 R.


    Report comment

    1
  32. m0nty says: November 9, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    He is not going to walk away from a money tree he worked so hard to secure.

    That at least explains why m0ntifa supports policies that seem to assume money grows on trees.


    Report comment

    3
  33. Vance was endorsed by Trump. Be nice to have a chart that indicated Trump picked or endorsed and how they fared. Not a few Trump picks or endorsed got shafted for funds by McConnell and McCarthy. Too early for the post-mortem however.


    Report comment

    2
  34. Charlie Kirk show as Berka reports above.

    I reckon I summarised it pretty well, but I can’t tell you the timecode to go to in their live stream to hear who their sources were.

    Baris is saying similar.

    Rich Baris “The People’s Pundit” @Peoples_Pundit · 1h

    Kari Lake far exceeded her needed margin to overtake Katie Hobbs and there are a lot of REP favorable ballots to be counted over the coming days.



    Report comment

    1
  35. Real Clear has Senate

    Demonics 48
    GOP 47

    There are 5 seats left as grey or undecided

    Alaska
    Nevada
    Georgia
    Wiscon

    I presume without looking that Alaska is heading GOP’s way.

    The makes it 48 apiece.

    Nevada and Wisconsin head to the GOP that makes 50 GOP.
    Georgia and Ariz go to the Demomics.

    That makes it50 apiece.

    Manchin runs the Senate again.

    Manchin runs the senate and the GOP has the house is something we can live with.


    Report comment

    1
  36. It’s time to face up to the facts.

    Our American friends love Fetterwoman and Joe. Despite voting being non compulsory, the Americans are lining up in their millions to support them. Standing in lines to vote them in.

    Over 50% of the American population love these Democrat people.

    They had an election, and the results are telling. Fair enough. Empires have risen and fallen before. No biggie.

    Fifty years in the scheme of history is a blink of an eyelid.

    The problem here is that you have so many “mega wealthy” people with the resources to touch every person on the planet thinking they are going to be the next “Alexander the Great”.


    Report comment

    4
  37. US politics is officially rooted. They deserve all they get.
    The elected Fetterman, a man with a brain injury though Oz probably wasn’t a much better choice.
    They re-elected gin soaked Nancy and Newsom in LA.

    The west, and the USA in particular, is in serious decline. It will not end well.


    Report comment

    9
  38. Over 50% of the American population love these Democrat people.

    Well hang on. Two days ago we were told that:

    Trump is ascendant.

    Clearly, that little nuggest is not aging well.


    Report comment

  39. Pretty sure we are over the “election rigging” stuff (although it no doubt happens to a large extent in some areas).

    What’s more important to note is that Americans seem to want the policies the Democrats are putting forth.

    On balance, it’s not hard to come to the conclusion that the majority of Americans are “fucked in the head”. Or to put it more politely, mentality retarded.


    Report comment

    7
  40. This screenshot again shows the insanity of the first-past-the-post ballot counting system.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhFxf_gXkAE8mh8?format=jpg&name=large

    If all the Libertarian Party voters could express a 2nd preference that was better than the total opposite of their first preference, this 1.9% could have gone mostly to Walker.

    Yes you can contrive some counter-intuitive results with optional preferential, but such situations are rare and are still preferable to having Satan win just because you can’t list Joe Schmoe as 2nd preference to God herself.


    Report comment

  41. What you have to remember, Nucky, is that Cats can never be wrong. Sometimes they experience disappointment when they are not listened to, as in this thread where Cats are grousing sourly about the injustice of reality refusing to conform to their desires. Their theories are immune from the vicissitudes of tawdry scientific method, nevertheless.


    Report comment

    1
  42. There were 80 odd million Americans who lined up to “Vote for Joe”.

    It’s not even compulsory. They just did it of their own free will.

    Amazing when you think about it.


    Report comment

    5
  43. Indeed, some 3 million deceased citizens* arose from their graves to line up and… post in their votes for Sleepy Joe, who will surely soon join them in the cold, cold ground.
    *approx.


    Report comment

    4
  44. Their theories are immune from the vicissitudes of tawdry scientific method, nevertheless.

    mOnster has obviously scoffed down his last donut, and has resorted to eating the bookshelf. He’s decided to munch on a dictionary.


    Report comment

    1
  45. No, Warnock won the runoff last time in much the same circumstances. He will likely win again in a two horse race.

    IF it’s the deciding seat for the senate in a run off, there is going to be a a lot of money spent. On both sides. Lots and lots.


    Report comment

    2
  46. Trafalgar’s final Senate polls:

    Georgia Senate – Walker +3
    Arizona Senate – Masters +1
    Nevada Senate – Laxalt +5
    Ohio Senate – Vance +10
    North Carolina Senate – Budd +6

    They also had Oz winning PA by 2, Bolduc winning NH by 1, and the Dems only winning CO by 2. An average of four points wrong in each poll.

    So you’re saying they were wrong in three out of eight contests, and even in the races they were wrong still within their margin of error in two of them. What about the Governor’s races in those states? Within 1 with Kemp in GA and DeWine in OH. They look pretty good for AZ and NV. Bolduc v Hassen was missed by a lot. If they picked Hassen the underestimated the size significantly. The RCP avg was +1.4, she finished +10. That’s NH for you.

    Looking forward to seeing RCP performance rating when all is said and done.


    Report comment

    1
  47. The amount of money spent on US elections is ridiculous.

    These people really need to fix this shit up. Democracy is “under threat” alright. It’s because only wealthy people (or those with wealthy donors) can run for office.

    The entire system is an absolute joke. Totally fraudulent.

    The “Founding Fathers” never intended it this way. You were meant to get elected, spend a few years in Washington representing your community, and then go back to whatever job you had before. Farmer, store owner or whatever.


    Report comment

    14
  48. So you’re saying they were wrong in three out of eight contests, and even in the races they were wrong still within their margin of error in two of them.

    These blokes should be tipping eight out of eight races. That’s their job.

    It’s not as though they are interviewing a racehorse.


    Report comment

    1
  49. the majority of Americans are “fucked in the head”. Or to put it more politely, mentality retarded.

    For a lot of them, Fetterman seems to be very relatable. He’s basically a smarter and slimmer munty.


    Report comment

    7
  50. Analogy for US Politics.

    It’s not the horse you need to be looking at. It’s the jockey, the trainer and the stable.

    Fetterwoman got over the line dragged by a tractor with its hooves chained to the chassis. Seriously, no sane person would actually vote for that dude. But it’s not about him, it’s about his “missus”. She’s been elected, not him. Even Joe said the “quiet bit out loud”.

    These people are corrupt to the core. Too many favours owed. They live in a different world to ours. I’ve been around a lot of racetracks over many years. You tend to pick this up as a “survival instinct”. Lay off.

    The term “The Big Guy” resonates with me. Mainly with lackeys running around the ring placing bets. If you pay attention, bees always return to their hive.


    Report comment

    4
  51. m0nty says:
    November 9, 2022 at 11:03 pm

    LOL, it’s the libertarians’ fault.

    No, Warnock won the runoff last time in much the same circumstances. He will likely win again in a two horse race.

    That race isn’t over and there’s the libertarian vote of 2% that may carry over.


    Report comment

  52. You know, you look at Repubs in Florida, Virginia and Georgia. That’s the way the GOP ought to go. Youngkin won in a blue state (Virginia) and Kemp and DeSantis did really well in their respective states. It’s not that gloomy for 24 with the right candidate.


    Report comment

    3
  53. It was noticeable that some close run seats were stalled at around 66% when things stopped. So what were the “early morning vote dumps” this time?


    Report comment

    3
  54. Arizona got scammed in 2020, then endured two years of open borders, now we are to believe that they voted for more of the same. Maricopa needs to do a mea culpa.


    Report comment

    7
  55. “Arizona got scammed in 2020, then endured two years of open borders, now we are to believe that they voted for more of the same. Maricopa needs to do a mea culpa.”

    Indeed. very suspect. Anyway the GOP have nabbed the senate seat in Wisconsin and will get Alaska.


    Report comment

    1
  56. Thoughts:

    Big Winner for the evening: Ron DeSantis. Has momentum and funding for a Presidential campaign if he wants to do it. He’ll even have a winning margin greater than Newsome has in California. Not bad for a guy who only beat a closeted gay man in 2018 by 30000 votes or so. The US wants a non geriatric President by 2024.

    Second Winner – Brian Kemp. Has taken a lot of hits from the left (opening in 2020, abortion, 2A rights) and the right (2020 election) but has survived with out a runoff. Won’t be in any presidential GOP calculations but he has done well. If I were Herschel Walker I would have him at every rally not Trump.

    Biggest Loser – Trump. I don’t he can remake himself into a change leader. He is still fighting 2020 instead of providing solutions for 2024. His remark regarding DeSantis was poorly timed. The enemy is always out front Don!

    Next Biggest Loser – Dr Oz. Poor choice of candidate. How can you not beat a lump of meat?


    Report comment

    2
  57. There was only ever a slim chance of civilization surviving but now it’s gone completely.

    We had our chances to shift the Overton window in the early days of social media but completely blew it with our desperation to be seen as the nice guys and then by the time we realised being nice guys wouldn’t work, censorship made turning things around completely impossible.

    Trump desperately needed to do something when he was President but refused as long as his ego was stoked – in the meantime everybody who supported him was being sent to the internet gulag.


    Report comment

    1
  58. Cats in 2020: Peaceful transfer of power is bullshit, fight Donny, fight fight fight!!

    Cats in 2022: Good knock Don, you can hang them up now old son, time for a peaceful transfer of power.


    Report comment

    2
  59. I’m so right about things all the time that I live rent free in KD’s spacious head.

    What I find amazing is the gullibility
    After all that has happened

    No one finds it strange that the left ensured their own real enemy…Trump ….got none of his troops in?

    How much longer do we have to put up with this moronic, gullible crap from people who seem to trust the system and blame the voters
    I suppose if you are in denial you could still be 1956 level gullible and trusting.

    FMD
    The thick runs deep.


    Report comment

    6
  60. Trump would be ruthless if someone didn’t work out too

    You could only tell if Trump worked out or not if they used paper ballots.
    For all we know there might be quite a few newly rich printing companies after this elections.


    Report comment

  61. It worked.
    Just enough left wing loss to keep retards convinced their electoral system is working as it should while their main threats are taken out.
    It would look too obvious to take Desantis out and he would have been on to the corruption in his state’s electoral system as he was already in power there.
    Too hard to get him.
    I’m again just aghast at the almost insane desire to believe in the electoral process against all evidence and with history and and understanding of technical capabilities to cheat overwhelmingly obvious.


    Report comment

    9
  62. Arizona is a mystery to me.
    Have you checked out the climate in Phoenix? They have on average 111 days at 38 degrees.
    The heat gets to them and madness is always the liberals best bet.


    Report comment

    4
  63. What an amazing place the USA is .. where millions of “normal” folk have vast wealth with very few poor around .. I mean, it’s gotta be the only reason why sooo many voted for higher everything! .. when it comes down to everyday living .. gas, up, food up, homeless up, unemployment up yet they rushed out and voted for more of the same .. USA glad it’s them that luvs it .. LOL!


    Report comment

    4
  64. There appears to be a residual distaste for Trump (even though he was not on the ballot) that affected either the number, or the intentions of Republican voters. He was stupid to sling off at DeSantis, and may well have cost Kari Lake the Governorship of Arizona, that I thought she should have won in a canter. Much as I believed Trump was an effective President, maybe it’s time he moved on. In fact, the upper echelons of both parties need to be moved on.


    Report comment

    2
  65. Seek refuge in the loving embrace of denialism, Cats! Reality too difficult for you? Just ignore it and devise your very own internal fantasy life, where you are always morally superior and everyone else is a figment of your fertile imagination.


    Report comment

    1
  66. Pennsylvanians vote for more crime, inflation, and children being taught men can have babies

    Based on Tuesday’s election results in Pennsylvania, most of the state likes record-breaking crime and inflation. They also desire to have their children taught that men can be women, get pregnant, and have babies. That is what was on the ballot Tuesday night, and that is what ultimately won. For Republicans, it’s indeed a hard pill to swallow.

    Sure, skeptics may disagree and blame the candidate’s quality or former President Donald Trump. However, the problems go deeper than that. There’s an ideological problem that Republicans have to acknowledge in the country, and it surrounds the fact that about half of the population doesn’t identify with conservatism or Republicanism. This is an even harder pill to swallow.

    Whatever criticisms one might have about Oz, he was leaps and bounds better than Fetterman. However, I am saying that from a conservative Republican perspective. I am against radical gender ideology. I disagree with left-wing criminal justice reforms that have put criminals on the street and contributed to record-breaking homicide rates. Based on last night’s election results, the majority don’t agree with my viewpoint.

    Crime was supposed to be one major issue affecting voters in this election. Yet, if a voter truly valued protecting people from criminals, and if crime was indeed the issue that many polls showed it was, then Fetterman wouldn’t have received as many votes as he did. This reflects a major problem for Republicans with voters.

    There are other issues as well.

    Looking at a map of the Pennsylvania Senate election, one can see that Fetterman’s victory was carried by the voters from Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Allentown, and Erie. The rest of the state was predominantly for Oz. This is yet more evidence of the vast cultural divide in the state, indicative of the division across the country.

    With nearly half the voters supporting such progressive platforms, it will be tough for Republicans to win future elections in Pennsylvania and throughout the country. It’s hard to compete in a reality in which so many people believe such nonsensical things. And that is true whether the candidate is Dr. Oz or any other candidate.


    Report comment

    3
  67. Why Did the Huge Red Wave Fail To Materialize? Roger Kimball, The Spectator

    How wrong can you be? About as wrong as I was about the character of the midterm elections. I thought there would be a red wave, fueled in part by high-octane orange fuel. Clearly I was wrong.

    It is no consolation to know that I was hardly alone in my assumptions. Nor is it much consolation to hear from Donald Trump that it was a “GREAT EVENING” because there were “174 wins and nine losses.”

    I didn’t check his math, but even if accurate it is obvious that there was no red wave. Several of his high-profile candidates lost, most conspicuously Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. The fact that he lost to a man who is ostentatiously a mental incompetent added insult to injury. The most that John Fetterman will be able to do is show up to the Senate in his hoodie and vote “yea” or “nay” on the orders of his handlers.

    A friend suggests that perhaps the Democratic strategy is to let Fetterman assume office and then have him resign, leaving Josh Shapiro, who won the gubernatorial race handily against Trump-endorsed Doug Mastriano, appoint a mentally competent successor. Rumors suggest that Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti is the likely replacement. That scenario appeals to the Machiavellian in me, but who knows if it is in the offing.

    What does it all mean? One thing is that many widely held assumptions about the course of elections are wrong or at least inoperative in the current fraught environment.

    I had assumed that with the president underwater, inflation raging, interest rates rises, thousands upon thousands of illegal immigrants pouring over our southern border and crime spiking that Republicans would have the advantage. How could it be otherwise?

    Some critics say that Trump was the issue, that the Democrats made “Trump is on the ballot” their war cry. They did do that, and of course they also shouted “abortion” every chance they got. But both issues had to cut both ways. Trump has a very extensive base and the meme that “Trump is on the ballot” had to have helped as well as hindered. As for abortion, while some candidates — Tim Michels, for example — made it a centerpiece of their campaign, most did not and, besides, late-term abortion is no longer a winning battle cry for Democrats, if it ever was.

    How then to explain what happened? I frankly do not know.

    Robert Bork, quoting Justice Antonin Scalia, titled one of his books A Country I Do Not Recognize. Perhaps that is a starting point. Perhaps Americans no longer care about prosperity, border integrity, physical safety or nurturing traditional bourgeois virtues. Perhaps they have signed up en masse for the woke agenda of political correctness and socialist conformity. I do not know.


    Report comment

    7
  68. Kari Lake still looks good to win the Governor race in Arizona, I would have thought, I haven’t seen anything that seems to change that so far this morning. You can see how powerful a tool it is to be able to slow the process down though and torture everyone for days and days. It’s just a comically corrupt system at this point.


    Report comment

    10
  69. Very happy to be slowly heading back to Florida now, where all’s right with the world there.

    Disappointing indications so far but results have yet to be settled; prognostications are too early so far.
    The US is a very wealthy country. Sadly, there is a lot of ruin in it before the hurts really start to sting.
    De Santis has led the way to show how it can be saved, and that is the hope – but so many are very information poor, they are uninvolved in politics, although their patriotism is strong. There is also a lot of poverty in the South still – some of the rural housing is shacklike, especially for the black population.


    Report comment

    4
  70. m0ntysays:
    November 10, 2022 at 8:46 am

    Reality too difficult for you? Just ignore it and devise your very own internal fantasy life, where you are always morally superior and everyone else is a figment of your fertile imagination

    m0nty-fa

    Your lack of self awareness is such that you cannot realise that this is a good description of the fascist left everywhere in the Anglophone west.


    Report comment

    1
  71. so many are very information poor, they are uninvolved in politics, although their patriotism is strong.
    If they are information poor it would be due to the overwhelming fake news MSM.


    Report comment

  72. Roger Kimball

    Robert Bork, quoting Justice Antonin Scalia, titled one of his books A Country I Do Not Recognize. Perhaps that is a starting point. Perhaps Americans no longer care about prosperity, border integrity, physical safety or nurturing traditional bourgeois virtues. Perhaps they have signed up en masse for the woke agenda of political correctness and socialist conformity.

    Read the comment above, that the brain dead one was essentially elected by four cities in PA. The big divide is between big cities dominated by the uber rich, upper middle class college graduates, and welfare recipients on the one hand, and the rural and small town/small city working class on the other. That is not going to change.

    The challenge is to find a solution that allows those groups to live together. This is not made easier by the intellectual arrogance of the first group, nor by their fascist urge to control The Lives of Others.

    One solution is more states. Divide existing states into city and regional states, let the two groups rule themselves. Then fight in the Supreme Court for the 10th Amendment, to strictly limit federal power.


    Report comment

    6
  73. American News Nov 9, 2022
    https://thepostmillennial.com/dead-democrat-re-elected-in-pennsylvania

    Pennsylvania state representative Tony DeLuca has been reelected despite his death last month, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports.

    DeLucs’s death from lymphoma at the age of 85 occurred too late for changes to be made to the election ballots, or the candidate running for the district. His only challenger was Green Party candidate Zarah Livingston, over whom he had a sizable lead throughout the election. He won the seat with more than 85% of the vote.

    DeLuca was the longest-serving member of the state House of Representatives, having served for 39 years. The Pennsylvania House Democrats sent out a tweet of congratulations on Tuesday evening. […]

    The real question now is how many dead people voted for a dead guy.


    Report comment

    5
  74. One Very Sweet Historic Victory Over DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney

    During a night when we were, I think it is safe to say, hoping to take down more Democrats, there was one takedown that has to be especially sweet.

    That’s the race in New York where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) just lost to Mike Lawler. Maloney just conceded.

    It was a historical loss — Maloney became the first Democrat Committee chair to lose in four decades, since 1980 when Jim Corman lost and the first Committee chair of either party since 1992. when NRCC Chair Guy Vander Jagt lost his primary in Michigan.


    Report comment

    5
  75. From a comment under Thomas Lifson’s article at American Thinker:

    Awfully hard to believe the tsunami was isolated to one state. Just as hard to believe the coincidence of the updated voting systems put in place after 2000. Kinda like the coincidences of all the incredibly close races always coming up with just enough blue votes at 3AM.


    Report comment

    8
  76. Two more years for inflation to gallop in the US.
    Despite what the doomsayers say, and I have no doubt there are pockets of serious corruption in the US’s sometimes bizarre electoral system, sometimes Republicans do win.


    Report comment

  77. The term “The Big Guy” resonates with me. Mainly with lackeys running around the ring placing bets. If you pay attention, bees always return to their hive.

    ..
    I watched a dozen people line up on a track and all place exactly $1000 bets on the same horse.
    Not suspicious at all, eh?
    Everywhere at all times in all things there is always corruption.
    The question is never: “Is this thing corrupt”? but: “Have we managed to keep corruption down to a level where this thing still functions”?


    Report comment

    4
  78. And you lot conclude, of course, that Florida was righteous and it was the rest of the country that was rigged. LOL.

    Explain why that’s not possible. Explain why you have full confidence in Philly?

    Go!


    Report comment

    3
  79. Explain why that’s not possible. Explain why you have full confidence in Philly?

    All things are possible, JC. It is possible that you could go a year without causing a car accident.

    Absent credible and specific accusations, bleating about cheating is a non sequitur.


    Report comment

  80. And explain how Maricopa machines ended ended up with the wrong ink but it’s only in that county as all others in Arizona are fine?

    Do you realise, JC, that Maricopa county was blue by a couple of points last cycle, thus if you’re alleging fraud then logically it would be the Republicans who ratfscked it?

    Please try to keep your conspiracy theories at least nominally plausible.


    Report comment

    1
  81. Do you realise, JC, that Maricopa county was blue by a couple of points last cycle, thus if you’re alleging fraud then logically it would be the Republicans who ratfscked it?

    Hahahahahahahaha!


    Report comment

    1
  82. Do you realise, JC, that Maricopa county was blue by a couple of points last cycle, thus if you’re alleging fraud then logically it would be the Republicans who ratfscked it?

    Please try to keep your conspiracy theories at least nominally plausible.

    Okay, so the exact same problematic county in 2020 had another issue this time around. Also, why would the GOP be the ones cheating? Why wouldn’t isn’t it possible the communist tried to cheat again?


    Report comment

    4
  83. How then to explain what happened? I frankly do not know.

    really. how about mass brainwashing of genZ and relentless gaslighting by media and a corruption as far as the eye can see. how about that


    Report comment

    5
  84. And you lot conclude, of course, that Florida was righteous and it was the rest of the country that was rigged.

    Florida is what the result looks like when all demonrat avenues for cheating are closed off.

    75% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction, so they voted to keep things pretty much as they are…..


    Report comment

    7
  85. Also, why would the GOP be the ones cheating? Why wouldn’t isn’t it possible the communist tried to cheat again?

    Why would Democrats sabotage voting in Maricopa county when they won it last time? You are making zero sense, old man.


    Report comment

    1
  86. m0nty-fa

    You are either incredibly naive, or think that everyone else here is stupid.

    Maricopa County DemonRats would boost the number of DemonRat votes to affect the state-wide elections for the governor and senator.

    Try to make your incessant gaslighting at least vaguely realistic.


    Report comment

    3
  87. They “won” it last time by cheating.

    Wow, the conspiracy is more elaborate than I thought. Instead of cheating one way that no one has ever proved and for which there is no evidence, now they’re cheating a totally different way with no evidence to prove it either!

    William of Ockham reckons you’re a moron.


    Report comment

    1
  88. Let them eat cake.

    And then hold onto your seats for Desantis in 24.

    Interesting that they were chanting at his party “two more years” (instead of “four more years….”)


    Report comment

  89. And sorry for my ignorance but is a “run off” vote in Georgia just a revote or do they have some sort of preferential deal going?

    (I’m off to a meeting but will check in later if some Cat is good enough to comment!!!)


    Report comment

  90. Dead Demonrat wins in Pennsylvania. No kidding, this is for real.

    Dead Democrat Wins Re-Election in Pennsylvania

    Pennsylvania state representative Tony DeLuca has been re-elected despite his death last month, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports.

    DeLucs’s death from lymphoma at the age of 85 occurred too late for changes to be made to the election ballots, or the candidate running for the district. His only challenger was Green Party candidate Zarah Livingston, over whom he had a sizable lead throughout the election. He won the seat with more than 85% of the vote.

    DeLuca was the longest-serving member of the state House of Representatives, having served for 39 years. The Pennsylvania House Democrats sent out a tweet of congratulations on Tuesday evening.



    Report comment

    2
  91. Yep.

    All this Trump v. DeSantis talk is juicy, but under the hood, there’s a far more pressing issue: Democrats fortified their COVID mass mail-in-voting apparatus. It’s a vote-harvesting juggernaut that will continue to produce competitive results no matter the GOP nominee.

    and yep

    Many factors went into last night. VBM falls short of explaining it all, but it’s crucial to understand VBM has changed the game in many ways. 2020 wasn’t a one-off. There is now a well-established Democrat machine that will harvest hordes of votes during “Election Month.”



    Report comment

    5
  92. Data Orbital
    @Data_Orbital
    ·
    1h
    Maricopa County – 62,034 Ballots Reported

    Kari Lake – 28,058 (45.9%)
    Katie Hobbs – 33,018 (54.1%)

    ~360,000 Ballots left in Maricopa

    Reminder(!!!) – This drop is only about 15% of the total ballots remaining and the batch we expected to be the worst for the Republicans.



    Report comment

    2
  93. Context re above:

    Rich Baris “The People’s Pundit”
    @Peoples_Pundit
    ·
    1h
    That Maricopa drop was part of the more DEM favorable 67k batch. We thought it was roughly 83k.
    Rich Baris “The People’s Pundit”
    @Peoples_Pundit
    ·
    1h
    That 67k drop in Maricopa was part of the actual mail that arrived from the 5th-7th.

    The rest of the vote out there is going to tend strongly Lake and Masters. Lake will win comfortably. Masters still should pick-up the seat too but with a lower margin than Lake.


    Report comment

    5
  94. struth says:

    You still here?
    Shouldn’t you be practicing “Rawhide” for your next packed out concert of 20 cowboys at Upper Bumfuckistan pub – that 16 footer won’t (re)buy itself you know, and how will you avoid the next mandate if you don’t have any assets to sell?
    Or were you just venting at us because no-one who sees you IRL takes you seriously and you wanted to get some reaction?
    Or maybe just hanging with the plebs trying to feel superior (not that you need an increase in hubris or self-assessed worth – you’re already full of that too).

    Ah well, easy enough to scroll past I guess…


    Report comment

    3
  95. “Fetterwoman is now a US Senator.

    The Democrats are likely to get Donald Duck elected next.”

    Well, this one sure looks and acts like Wile E. Coyote, so probably more like Daffy Duck next – it’s not hard to picture him doing the “Wabbit season! Duck season!” thing.
    Much like Joe Biden, they “just need his corporeal form” – obviously.


    Report comment

    2
  96. Has m0nty-fa yet worked out that in state wide contests such as those for governor and senator, rorting the largest county to build up DemonRat state wide totals is well worth doing?


    Report comment

  97. “And sorry for my ignorance but is a “run off” vote in Georgia just a revote or do they have some sort of preferential deal going?”

    In that state, you don’t just need to win, you need to get more than 50% of the vote.
    So if no-one gets more than 50% (eg 48.2% D, 48.3% R, and the rest with independents/libertarians) then they have a “run-off” between the two top performers.

    Not sure why, but them’s the rules…


    Report comment

    1
  98. “Has m0nty-fa yet worked out that in state wide contests such as those for governor and senator, rorting the largest county to build up DemonRat state wide totals is well worth doing?”

    Or even that when trying to win the presidency, you only need a few thousand votes in swing states to make the difference – Trump won by about 70 odd thousand in that measure, while Biden won by about 40 odd thousand in that measure. Why do you think it’s all “no evidence of WIDESPREAD voter fraud”? ‘Cause it’s not widespread, it’s very targeted to exactly where it is needed. Evidence? It was the swing states that had “a rest” overnight in 2020, and it’s the same states (minus Florida, which has some very good election integrity laws) that are “slow” this time.
    In short, the “bigger” the area (state vs house district) the easier it is to target just a small amount of “fudging” in your favor. Universal mail-in voting (which is a D thing) is also ripe for fraud – there are many reports of people turning up to vote, only to be told “You already voted”.


    Report comment

    1
  99. Vote dump update from 538:

    We just got a new batch of ballots from Clark County, Nevada — about 14,000 worth — and they were good for Democrats. Cortez Masto cut her deficit by about 6,000 votes, and Sisolak cut his by about 4,000. As far as we know, there are about 70,000 ballots left to count in Clark County, and at that rate, Cortez Masto would be able to overtake Laxalt statewide. But that’s a big if.

    Margin to Laxalt is now 20,000, so if the trend from that dump continues then CCM wins by 10,000. Many a slip twixt cup and lip, of course.


    Report comment

    1
  100. You know, you look at Repubs in Florida, Virginia and Georgia. That’s the way the GOP ought to go. Youngkin won in a blue state (Virginia) and Kemp and DeSantis did really well in their respective states. It’s not that gloomy for 24 with the right candidate.

    The Florida result was enhanced by all the NYer’s who fled there.

    To win the WH the GOP has to engineer the following;
    1) Trump has to gracefully step aside now. He alone is the biggest obstacle to assuring a GOP victory. I love the guy and admire his accomplishments but he stands in between victory and runner up. He should also gracefully accept the 2020 election result and remove that turd from the table.
    2)Concentrate on the family issues- education of kids and keeping them out of the hands of deviants in the education system, spiraling cost of living (inflation), energy security, the recession and the economy (1Q 23) , out of control immigration, crime gone crazy, beefing up US defence particularly Grey Zone Warfare.
    3) Repeat 2, over and over. And for good measure over and over again. Forget all the bullshit about 2020, the J6 Capital thing, forget about Trumps Russia rubbish, Roe etc – all of it doesn’t matter to families, it’s history – working families want it to be about THEM.

    If they can do that as well as get their ground game improved they have a shot. No matter what it will be very close so they MUST be committed and consistent.

    Otherwise forget it. The GOP can’t change any damn thing until they get the WH.


    Report comment

    1
  101. . As for abortion, while some candidates — Tim Michels, for example — made it a centerpiece of their campaign, most did not
    Not the centerpiece, maybe, but it cost them.
    and, besides, late-term abortion is no longer a winning battle cry for Democrats, if it ever was.
    Huh?

    How then to explain what happened? I frankly do not know.
    I’ll hep ya:

    Hershel Walker, has no issues about abortion for women he’s impregnated, just for everyone that he hasn’t impregnated yet.
    Mehmet Oz, doesn’t want any body [other than Hershel Walker] to be able to access abortion.
    RNC treating people like idiots.
    Example: Hey, here’s Hershel Walker, and, can you believe it, he’s a Black Republican.
    [poorly hidden messages]:
    1. Hey, dumb blacks, vote for the party of Lincoln.
    2. Hey, dumb Whites, here’s a guy on a moral par with OJ Simpson, but vote for him anyway.


    Report comment

    1
  102. 1) Trump has to gracefully step aside now

    Cats for the last seven years: Haha Trump is escalating every time he gets challenged, what a legend, he just keeps going like the Energizer Bunny, I will stan him for life, woot!!

    Cats today: nah Don you can stop escalating now, time to down tools

    Somehow I don’t think Trump will go quietly into that good night.


    Report comment

    1
  103. Cats today: nah Don you can stop escalating now, time to down tools

    mOron,

    Keep gleefully wallowing in that leftist cess pool of yours. Where the deviants and freaks enjoy their putrification of everything decent and worthwhile to sensible people. With supporters as stupid as you who elect dead people. And encourage shitting on public sidewalks, enabling the grooming of kids by creepy trans freaks , welcome child traffickers and drug cartel thugs at the borders of their country, genocide the elderly in their old age homes.

    Readers and regs here know you fully support all that rotten pile of shit listed above, and more. Because Biden and the left generally appeal to brain dead nit wits like you. You’re too dull to see they are preying on you. They fullfill your need to make all those horrors become somehow “normal” for society’s sad useless numpties like you.

    Frankly, you’re just sick. But, thriving in your sick leftard world.


    Report comment

    13
  104. Kneel.
    Your last statement regarding my good self would be seen as a cry for help by any psychologist worth their salt.
    Teenage girl grizzles are so..like…er…like…gay.


    Report comment

    4
  105. I’m leaving the post-mortem for next week but listening to Baris this morning on Charlie Kirk Show suggests its premature to move on from Trump.

    moving on from Trump is exactly what the marxists want


    Report comment

    14
  106. Pennsylvania state representative Tony DeLuca has been re-elected despite his death last month, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports.

    the weekend at biden’s cast is expanding. no doubt he will play a prominent role in the nihilist globalist agenda. let’s face it deluca is a pure nihilist now.


    Report comment

    3
  107. Democracy is dead.

    The results from yesterday in the USA are just missing the “once upon a time” introduction.
    There certainly is going to be no “they lived happily ever after.”
    Demonrat one party rule with no possibility of losing power until the people no longer go along with the charade.

    Elections will never see a popular result, because that would have happened yesterday with fair elections.
    Anyone saying it will be different in the future hasn’t worked out the modus operandi from yesterday.
    Until the conservative side of politics adopts the same tactics, there is no way forward.

    Things must get worse.
    It will not matter whoever the republicans put up as a presidential candidate.
    I would note that Trump is really the only one addressing the criminal fraud of US elections in the republican movement.

    It is not who you vote for, but who counts the votes.


    Report comment

    10
  108. I think you will find the reason that Desantis won so handily in Florida is that he cleaned up the voting system and the voting rolls.

    There was a “result that day”, as there should be. If every state in America followed his lead, most of the country would be solid red. Winning the legislatures is key, and it should be the Republicans top priority.

    What’s happening in Arizona is total bullshit. Without fair elections, there can be no chance of change.


    Report comment

    8
  109. Conclusions from the still undecided but mostly done 2022 US midterm elections.

    – The Narrative from practically everyone, from pollsters to pundits, from quacks to quants, was that the Republicans were going to dominate due to short-term economic factors like inflation. This was false. The real narrative should have been drawn not from so-called “fundamentals”, but trends in recent by-elections where abortion was not necessarily the most important issue but did turn out to be decisive to the end result.

    – Every abortion-related ballot measure was decided in favour of women’s rights. No doubt Democrats are looking at a lot more of those to juice turnout in 2024 if the issue is still live. Marijuana ballot measures had a more mixed set of results.

    – Unmarried women saved the Democrats from what otherwise would have been a real red wave. It is perhaps too simplistic to put that down just to Roe, because there are a lot of Trumpy reasons why young people and women in particular would vote Democrat. The crosstabs don’t lie on that though.

    – Much-mooted Black and Hispanic shifts to the Republicans largely didn’t happen, apart from Cuban Americans in Florida. Everyone can probably forget about that now.

    – Florida was a big win for the Republicans and, while it has been largely unreported, Texas was also as rock solid GOP as ever despite recent murmurings about demographic shifts. The Democrats threw a lot of stupid money at races they got whooped in in those states. Maybe they will learn a lesson, maybe not. 50-state strategies belong in the Howard Dean era.

    – Kemp and Raffensberger were returned comfortably, underlining that strong and ongoing defiance of Trump is not actually career-ending in the GOP. Many 2020 denialists were elected in safer seats, but a lot lost in closer ones. One suspects that Trumpist denialism is going to be a cultural marker going forward but nothing much will happen about it, a bit like how everyone has gotten on with life post Obergefell and forgotten about it.

    – There were no scandals over 4am MASSIVE VOTE DUMPS. Such dumps did occur on a small scale in places like NV, GA and AZ, and they may end up being crucial to the results there, but for some reason the right-wing media hasn’t been all over them like a cheap suit like they were last time. In fact the media has been in a state of shock, just about. Tucker Carlson looked like he was on quaaludes in his first post-election opener, starting with a whine about how long AZ is taking to count its votes but not alleging any tally-changing shenanigans. Despite a raft of 2020 denialists gaining office, there was almost no 2022 denialism spoken about in media of any type today. Where are the much-ballyhooed army of GOP lawyers going on Newsmax and OANN screaming about irregularities? Very low energy by the wingnut wurlitzer. Do they need to be turned off and on again?

    – Trump remains unrepentant, and indeed he is already escalating the turf war with DeSantis. If there’s one thing he knows how to do, it is play the Republican Party like a fiddle. The mournful op-eds about how the party all need to move on to the next guy are going to be short-lived, because Trump ain’t done by a long way. He still calls the shots… he may have missed the target this time but he owns the gun, the ammo and the shooting range.


    Report comment

    3
  110. Monty, funny you haven’t mentioned NC. R did very well there.

    Quite. Also forgot to mention the NY House pickups, from which the conclusion can be drawn that all state courts should allow gerrymandering if it’s not going to be banned.

    Democrats got a sweep in MI and took back multiple governorships, so there’s that.


    Report comment

    1
  111. Did I see some statistical data suggesting that the Republicans won the popular vote by around 6 million votes? By the standards of the leftards, clearly the DemonRats were resoundingly defeated, and thus illegitimate.


    Report comment

    2
  112. Interesting analysis in the Speccie re the mid-terms:

    The case of the missing red wave
    Andrew L. Urban

    What follows is conjecture, not evidence. But there is no way anyone can dispute it. So here goes.

    The US midterms this year throw into sharp relief the essential disconnect between polling and voting, where voting is not compulsory and polling is random. The respondents to polls are not the same people who vote. It is even possible that not a single poll responder has voted. Had those who thought the country was going in the wrong direction when answering pollsters’ questions been required to register their matching vote at the same time, the result would certainly have been different.

    When 75 per cent of poll respondents say America is going in the wrong direction and the votes that are cast don’t show matching inclinations to change the driver, the only explanation can be, I argue, that the majority of the voters were not the majority of the polled. That mismatch is a key factor – but not the only one.

    ‘Getting the vote out’ is the American mantra in elections, precisely because voting is not compulsory. Of the myriad reasons why some voters decline to vote when the crunch comes, complacency is tops, cancelling out the top motivator, fear. Complacency can be generated by sheer laziness, but also by a belief that your vote won’t make any difference.

    That complacency is fed by the hubbub of expectation; the accepted wisdom was that there would be a red wave to carry Republican candidates to Washington in greater numbers than their Democrat opponents. This had become the persuasive narrative, across the political and media spectrum.

    It is not hard to imagine how that would, on the one hand, motivate Democrat-leaning voters and demotivate Republicans. The other factor feeding into this mood would be the hassle involved in voting, when the sheer volume of paperwork required is demotivating. These midterms involve not just electing a lone member of your local electorate – a choice between perhaps half a dozen candidates typical of Australian elections – but a gamut of other representative positions up and down the scale of elected offices.

    In midterms, the race is on for the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Also, 34 of the 50 states elect governors for four-year terms, (Vermont and New Hampshire elect governors for two-year terms). Also on the ballot are many mayors, other local public officials, and even citizen initiatives. There is a lot of voting to do. (Imagine our own senate election papers multiplied…) Presidential elections generate average voter turnout of 50 – 60 per cent, but midterms average about 40 per cent.

    But which 40 per cent? Obviously not a homogeneous cohort. Arguably in this election, Democrats were motivated more by fear of loss of power than Republicans. That is my number one argument. Republicans were also motivated by fear – fear of staying on the wrong course and maintaining the policies that led the country there. But that fear was moderated, muted if you like, by the belief that so many voters will prefer Republican representatives (and many sure did, in Florida above all) that it can be left to them. Save all the hassle, whether doing the paperwork at the ballot box or via mail, it’s the same (perhaps a tad more with mail-ins…)

    The upshot of my argument is that the polls weren’t necessarily wrong about a red wave; they simply sampled a cohort whose majority didn’t vote. Lucky for Biden …

    Food for thought . . .


    Report comment

    1
  113. From Sundance at The Treehouse.

    Folks, relax. We’ve seen enough, and we’ve seen this exact playbook before.

    The delayed “official results” from Colorado, Arizona and Nevada are all part of the organized narrative engineering from SoS offices, party officials (local and state) and corporate media. It’s transparent now.

    Perhaps all is not lost.
    The GOP club still needs a clean out.


    Report comment

    4
  114. “Your last statement regarding my good self would be seen as a cry for help by any psychologist worth their salt.”

    Perhaps it might – but if said psychologists are part of the WEF controlled medical-industrial conspiracy out to kill us all (your stand, not mine), then that assessment would hardly bolster your argument that I’m in need of help, would it? Indeed, one might even assume that such people might want me out of the way, as anathema to their designs. Heh – who knew you’d be on their side?

    Then again, one wonders what your extended rants might cause the self same psychologist to glean about you – certainly wouldn’t be terribly flattering, I dare say.


    Report comment

  115. “…I didn’t realise how much Tulsi excites you…”

    I have to say I’m more than a little surprised at the hate generated against that woman.
    She is part-way through the process that spans everyone from Bill Maher (pointing out illiberal leftist talking points, but still stuck in the MSM bubble) through Tulsi (gone from the Dems, but still not far enough along to join the Repubs) to Dave Rubin (former centre-left Dem, now a rusted on Repub living in the free state of Florida after getting sick of trying to save LA from “ultra-left” idiots).

    Such people are at least prepared to argue the points – they may not agree with the right on all things, but are prepared to accept that not everyone sees things the same way and that compromise is required to prevent a collapse into chaos, civil war, or a “peaceful divorce”. And they eventually (as Dave Rubin did) come to the conclusion that most on the right will actually listen to what they have to say, and some will even agree with them – at least to a point, and on some things.

    If you are not convinced, I can only suggest you have a look at Joe Rogan’s podcast episode when she went on – some of the nice things about Rogan’s podcasts are that it is very long form (not “sound bites”), he lets people say what they want to without trying to put them “in a box”, and he normally has done some homework and has some insightful and appropriate questions for his guests. Because of that, they often reveal things about their nature that you just don’t get anywhere else (case in point: Zuckerberg on censorship)

    The point is: Tulsi is basically anti-establishment and centre-left. She is not, IMO, the enemy, but rather someone prepared to be part of the back-and-forth that gets us what we all need – recognition that we have a point, and compromise to something we can all accept, if not rejoice about. If it had to be a Dem, I’d much rather Tulsi than Clinton (Mr or Mrs), Obama or Biden as US president, that’s for sure!


    Report comment

    1
  116. That there is dead silence about Mitch McConnell’s and his fellow swamp rats’ guerilla campaign to sabotage these mid-terms for Trump and the RINOs are positioning themselves for the new leadership they expect to be bestowed upon them in their slim majorities, shows how successful McConnell’s strategy has been and that people aere too dumb to see through it.


    Report comment

    6
  117. That there is dead silence about Mitch McConnell’s and his fellow swamp rats’ guerilla campaign to sabotage these mid-terms for Trump
    Trump is the saboteur.
    He doesn’t want any Repubs stealing his thunder for the Primaries in 15 months time.
    Another reason he selected duds like Walker and Oz over candidates that likely woulda won.


    Report comment

  118. Harmeet K. Dhillon
    @pnjaban
    2/ check this out —

    AZ outstanding non-provisional ballot estimate as of 7:45pm

    State: 571,813

    Apache 8,500
    Cochise 8,662
    Coconino 12,231
    Gila 269
    Graham 118
    La Paz 1,972
    Maricopa 407,664
    Mohave 10,600
    Pima 114,203
    Pinal 16,281
    Yavapai 12,458
    Yuma 9,180

    Majority of these will be Election Day drop-offs and will break strongly R.


    Report comment

    1
  119. Trump is the saboteur.

    Exactly what Marxist trolls are desperately trying to convince everybody. Indeed they fear him as a disruptor to the Democrat’s cosy arrangement with the RINOs. To such an extent that the odious Senator Murkowski and Liz Cheney have been exposed as Democrat sleepers masquerading as Republicans.


    Report comment

    5
  120. Harmeet K. Dhillon
    @pnjaban
    ·
    5h
    This is what I just said on
    @IngrahamAngle
    — we project remaining 300k+ Maricopa votes to more than erase Hobbs’ mirage of a lead. Game on! I’ll be there to watch!
    Quote Tweet

    The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
    @Garrett_Archer
    ·
    5h
    .@MaricopaVote confirms that the 78k ballots added to the totals were early votes from last Saturday, Sunday, and most of Monday. The 17k “box 3” election day ballots were not counted.

    So now it’s game on with the late early drop-offs. They will decide this election.



    Report comment

    1
  121. To sum up, first no polls can ever be trusted again. These were used this time to gaslight Republicans the blame could be laid at Trump’s feet. Two birds with one stone, depress Republicans and get rid of Trump.

    Second, Republican leadership must go, they are now the enemy of their own party and voters. McConnell and McCarthy must be relieved of their positions and
    Rona McDaniel sent back to the Romney family.

    I consider McConnell a bigger threat to the US than even Biden and his idiot admin because he refuses to even object to the Dems’ cheating and using the FBI and other agencies against his own people.

    This was probably the last time Americans voted believing that it mattered.


    Report comment

    1
  122. DecisionDesk HQ is calling Kelly in the AZ Senate race. I would hold on as there are still just under 400K votes out there and this last drop from Maricopa was from South Phoenix, which is an area that favors the Ds.


    Report comment

    1
  123. Dave Wasserman
    @Redistrict
    New House math:

    Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
    GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
    Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

    Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.



    Report comment

  124. AZ Gov
    The official gap between Lake and Kelly used to be 1.3%, then it was 1.5%, now it is 1.7%.
    If there’s any Republican-dense counties still out there, they are being held back and hidden pretty well.
    Gap widening, not narrowing in the manner predicted last week.

    DDHQ
    Votes in: Estimated 90%
    Votes counted: 2,192,981

    My math says Lake needs to average at least 58% of the uncounted votes to win.


    Report comment

  125. Extra 3% counted and the gap narrowed to 1.5%!
    But the share Lake needs of the remaining votes in order to overtake Hobbs before they run of out ballots is now 60%.
    This indicates Lake has been getting more than 50% but less than 58% of the votes counted during the last day.
    Her win rate is exactly enough to make Lake fall short by a handful of votes at the end. WhAt BaD LuCk.

    Less of a bag-grab and more of a laser-guided precision strike.


    Report comment

    1
  126. Big ballot drop in AZ Gov race during the last hour, now claiming 98% of votes have been counted.
    The gap narrowed, but the trend is not enough to put Lake ahead.
    Lake has been winning less than 55% of recent ballot batches, but now would need 77.3% of remaining votes to overtake Hobbs, which is probably impossible.


    Report comment

  127. Lake got drained.
    Yesterday the counting finished at 98% of ballots counted.
    Overnight another 117,000 votes were added but the % of ballots counted has remained at 98%. Previously a 100,000 ballot drop increased the % by 4pcpts.

    Working backwards from the vote totals and reported percent counted, the estimated total ballots to count was until yesterday hovering between 2,436,000 and 2,456,000.
    The vote total is now 110,000 higher than the highest previous ballot estimate.

    Votes that did not come from ballots.
    Heh, howabout that, huh?


    Report comment

    1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.