US 2022 Mid-Terms Thread

The latest indication of national sentiment:

Wow. Over half polled strongly disapprove of Biden. This carries over into the generic ballot:

Let’s look at latest polls for individual races:

GA Senate: Walker (R) +3 (RCP average Walker +0.6)

AZ Senate: Masters (R) +1 v Kelly (RCP avg Kelly +0.6)

NV Senate: Laxalt (R) +2 v Cortez Mastro (RCP avg Laxalt +2.7)

WI Senate: Johnson (R) +6 v Barnes (RCP avg Johnson +3.3)

OH Senate: Vance (R) +10 v Ryan (RCP average Vance +8)

NH Senate: Hassan (D) +3 v Bolduc (RCP avg Hassan +1.4)

PA Senate: Oz (R) +2.2 v Fetterman (RCP avg Oz +0.1)

Here is my prediction. In the Senate, like Gingrich, I think we are looking at a 53-55 R majority. In the House, I think we can expect something in the low 240s. Surprises in the Senate, I think, may include pick-ups in the NH and NV. I think Walker will win the GA Senate convincingly, less so Masters but he is a very good candidate and future of the party so I hope to see him get through and pick-up the Senate seat. Lake’s strong run for AZ Gov and the generic support for R should lift him over the line.

Time will reveal all.


718 responses to “US 2022 Mid-Terms Thread”

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  1. Colonel Crispin Berka Avatar
    Colonel Crispin Berka

    There’s two different chants being said and while the “two more years” is the first one, I was more mystified about the 2nd one that takes over at 5:09

    Sounds like “She’s fair, she’s fair” but maybe my interpretation is biased by the FLoFl’s appearance.

  2. Colonel Crispin Berka Avatar
    Colonel Crispin Berka

    Zipster you are spammingposting on the wrong thread. The open thread is thatta way.

  3. dover0beach Avatar

    Harmeet K. Dhillon
    This is what I just said on
    — we project remaining 300k+ Maricopa votes to more than erase Hobbs’ mirage of a lead. Game on! I’ll be there to watch!
    Quote Tweet

    The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
    .@MaricopaVote confirms that the 78k ballots added to the totals were early votes from last Saturday, Sunday, and most of Monday. The 17k “box 3” election day ballots were not counted.

    So now it’s game on with the late early drop-offs. They will decide this election.

  4. Ed Case Avatar
    Ed Case

    Sarah Palin managed to lose Alaska’s only HoR seat, held by Republicans since Nixon’s days.

  5. Crossie Avatar

    To sum up, first no polls can ever be trusted again. These were used this time to gaslight Republicans the blame could be laid at Trump’s feet. Two birds with one stone, depress Republicans and get rid of Trump.

    Second, Republican leadership must go, they are now the enemy of their own party and voters. McConnell and McCarthy must be relieved of their positions and
    Rona McDaniel sent back to the Romney family.

    I consider McConnell a bigger threat to the US than even Biden and his idiot admin because he refuses to even object to the Dems’ cheating and using the FBI and other agencies against his own people.

    This was probably the last time Americans voted believing that it mattered.

  6. dover0beach Avatar

    The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
    Yavapai County has tabulated 10,087 ballots
    Est. 1,983 remain (98% complete)

    Batch breakdown




    The ED votes for R will come close to breaking like this too.

  7. dover0beach Avatar

    Sarah Palin managed to lose Alaska’s only HoR seat, held by Republicans since Nixon’s days.

    McConnell did. Also the ranked voting system they just implemented.

  8. dover0beach Avatar

    The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
    Mohave County has tabulated 10,092ballots
    Est. 1,300 remaining.

    Batch breakdown




  9. dover0beach Avatar

    DecisionDesk HQ is calling Kelly in the AZ Senate race. I would hold on as there are still just under 400K votes out there and this last drop from Maricopa was from South Phoenix, which is an area that favors the Ds.

  10. JC Avatar

    Wall Street Journal just called it for Kelly.

    Mark Kelly Wins in Arizona, Boosting Democrats’ Prospects of Keeping Senate Majority

  11. dover0beach Avatar

    Going into the weekend:

    The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru
    AZ outstanding ballot estimate w/ provisionals as of 830pm 11/11

    State: 394,521

    Apache 9,280
    Cochise 8,262
    Coconino 8,208
    Gila 55
    Graham 118
    Maricopa 274,885
    Mohave 1,200
    Pima 71,406
    Pinal 17,969
    Yavapai 1,983
    Yuma 1,155

  12. Ed Case Avatar
    Ed Case

    Dave Wasserman
    New House math:

    Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06
    GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05
    Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03

    Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218.

  13. Colonel Crispin Berka Avatar
    Colonel Crispin Berka

    AZ Gov
    The official gap between Lake and Kelly used to be 1.3%, then it was 1.5%, now it is 1.7%.
    If there’s any Republican-dense counties still out there, they are being held back and hidden pretty well.
    Gap widening, not narrowing in the manner predicted last week.

    Votes in: Estimated 90%
    Votes counted: 2,192,981

    My math says Lake needs to average at least 58% of the uncounted votes to win.

  14. Zipster Avatar

    My math says Lake needs to average at least 58% of the uncounted votes to win.

    They can’t let Lake win because she can clean up the fraud and cheating in time for 24

  15. Colonel Crispin Berka Avatar
    Colonel Crispin Berka

    Extra 3% counted and the gap narrowed to 1.5%!
    But the share Lake needs of the remaining votes in order to overtake Hobbs before they run of out ballots is now 60%.
    This indicates Lake has been getting more than 50% but less than 58% of the votes counted during the last day.
    Her win rate is exactly enough to make Lake fall short by a handful of votes at the end. WhAt BaD LuCk.

    Less of a bag-grab and more of a laser-guided precision strike.

  16. Colonel Crispin Berka Avatar
    Colonel Crispin Berka

    Big ballot drop in AZ Gov race during the last hour, now claiming 98% of votes have been counted.
    The gap narrowed, but the trend is not enough to put Lake ahead.
    Lake has been winning less than 55% of recent ballot batches, but now would need 77.3% of remaining votes to overtake Hobbs, which is probably impossible.

  17. Colonel Crispin Berka Avatar
    Colonel Crispin Berka

    Lake got drained.
    Yesterday the counting finished at 98% of ballots counted.
    Overnight another 117,000 votes were added but the % of ballots counted has remained at 98%. Previously a 100,000 ballot drop increased the % by 4pcpts.

    Working backwards from the vote totals and reported percent counted, the estimated total ballots to count was until yesterday hovering between 2,436,000 and 2,456,000.
    The vote total is now 110,000 higher than the highest previous ballot estimate.

    Votes that did not come from ballots.
    Heh, howabout that, huh?

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