You already probably know Mearsheimer’s view of the conflict, at least in respect of its cause, which he largely places at the feet of the US (and NATO) and the decision of Bush Jr. to move to have Georgia and Ukraine enter NATO. He again goes over this terrain but also looks at the prospects for peace in the short-medium term. Here, his position is pessimistic to say the least. He thinks a negotiated settlement is largely impossible following the failure to achieve negotiated terms in April 2022, the hardening of positions as the war intensifies, and because events and revelations since February 2022 have brought about a situation in which neither party – or possible third parties – trust the other/s to abide in good faith to the terms of any such settlement.
One of the interesting leitmotifs is the seriousness of the present conflict which is largely absent from presentations of the conflict in the Western media. There is a sense that the conflict sits on a knife’s edge, that while presently localized, could quite readily directly involve more parties as one or the other escalates the conflict.
Highly recommended, including the discussion that follows.