Open Thread – Mon 12 Feb 2024


The Umbrellas, Pierre-Auguste Renoir, 1866

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Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 5:57 pm

Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Force:

“On Feb 24th 2022, 30,000 Maxim machine guns were retrieved from storage

The Russians (well ok: DNR militia) were doing this nearly 2 years ago. It seemed amusing at the time, but as you say there’s a serious benefit in a water cooled machine gun vs drones.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 5:58 pm

I’ m reading Seymour Hersh’s account of the Presidency of John Kennedy “The Dark Side of Camelot.” Seems that, for most of his adult life, Kennedy was infected with V.D……

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
February 12, 2024 5:59 pm

Now run along and go tell Chili how you’re stalking Liz for 2 1/2 years, and it’s the black widow is still trying it on.

Thank you, JC. That does need to be called out, along with her ‘that creature’ comment and now her desire to have me gone; learn to scroll. I will go, as I said, when I choose, if I chose, and if further comment arises about last Friday’s disgrace, then I will answer it if I happen to be passing by.

I did a dance class this morning and feel considerably better, loved by friends are a very difficult weekend with my older sister. Certainly better enough to thank Cassie for her kind words on this thread and to continue thinking about whether the best and good use of my time is being here, particularly before we leave in early March for nearly six weeks overseas.

That Freedom site is such a sewer, I had a brief look, and that was enough for me.
Made by people who were once here? Demonstrates that you may not really know what sort of people you are dealing with on a blog till they give themselves away.

Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 5:59 pm
Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
February 12, 2024 5:59 pm

Bookmarked, to assist JC when next he whinges that he doesn’t stoush troll & all stoushes he’s involved in are started by others.

Great idea that.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 6:01 pm

Never suggested that, “Pub owner”. I always said there will be return serve.

By the way, whatever happened to the I’m done with you and never interact again.

Lasted 24 hours.

The only business you’re in is blowharding. Driller Blowhard Pty Ltd. ABN 321 35 230

JMH
JMH
February 12, 2024 6:02 pm

Salvatore, Iron Publican
Feb 12, 2024 5:52 PM
JC Feb 12, 2024 5:36 PM

Bookmarked, to assist JC when next he whinges that he doesn’t stoush troll & all stoushes he’s involved in are started by others.

Oh – yeah. Noted. The creature cannot elude multiple exposures. BTW, Sal – are you and I having an affair as the dipstick stated a few pages back? Bwahahaha.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 6:03 pm

Johnny Rotten
Feb 12, 2024 5:59 PM

Great idea that.

What would Mary’s shoe sniffer know about a good idea?

Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 6:03 pm

Where Israel really blew it October 8 was to let incompetant idiots take control of the Information Battle Space … sure that sticks in Washington but it always will because they are already bought and paid for .

Beheaded babies … what 40 ? ” Sure you want more?

Not only has Israel tottaly blown it with America … shabbos goys that they are ..

the rest of the planet that wasn’t happy with the brethren of the diminutive millinery are less so now.

And You guys will shit on me and threaten me. Who cares what I think?

I am just passing on information that comes from elsewhere.

Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 6:05 pm

What Isreal would have been far better served by would have just been to tell the Truth. That might have worked well but Israel didnt and decided to take that ride.

Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:05 pm
Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:06 pm
Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 6:06 pm

Nothing to see here, just Taylor Swifts guest Ice Spice throwing up demonic signs while wearing a upside down cross making sure the world sees it on the big screen.

She’s really something.

Watch: Grammys Best New Artist Nominee Ice Spice Performs Her Top 40 Hit… (9 Feb, rest of the headline truncated for decency – BoN)

Probably NSFW, despite being a Breitbart news article. We may just be at peak decadence for the cycle. Nero and Caligula might have trouble surpassing her.

Roger
Roger
February 12, 2024 6:06 pm

Someone called Taylor Swift was booed at the Super Bowl.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 6:07 pm

Oh – yeah. Noted. The creature cannot elude multiple exposures. BTW, Sal – are you and I having an affair as the dipstick stated a few pages back? Bwahahaha.

No, I most certainly didn’t. The mere thought would be too horrible to contemplate. And as much as I have contempt for the Driller, I don’t want him aimlessly wondering the Malee desert minus his head.

Driller, for your sake don’t not respond to any romantic approaches from the black widow, Crazy Karen.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 6:07 pm

The learning to read stuff is interesting.
I taught myself before I started school and was mystified when my children struggled, no idea about the change in classroom methods.
Solution was DIY and that included paying a speech therapist for speech and reading lessons for two of my children.
A great investment that I thoroughly enjoyed being involved in.
One of my daughters reminded me the other day of running into her old prep teacher after finishing school who was obviously very surprised to hear she was doing arts at Melbourne.
Written off at age five.

Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:08 pm

I disagree with the author. I think it’s entirely deliberate. They want WWIII.

Warning Sounded: ‘Biden has Opened the Floodgates of Hell’

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
February 12, 2024 6:09 pm

‘word walls’ – ‘unhinged ranting’ and ‘girls, girls’

If people object to reading then they are on the wrong blog.

Look for one with pictures.

I dissect fairly forensically what people say.
That is the scholar in me. It is all we have to go on with a blog.
If you can’t be bothered to read my comments, too bad.
It won’t stop me putting my views into literate prose.
Not ‘sighs’ and other exasperations of the illiterate.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 6:09 pm

Freed hostages?
That’s extraordinarily good news!

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 6:10 pm
Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:10 pm
miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 6:11 pm

The speed with which Catholicism collapsed in Ireland has parallels with what happened in Quebec somewhat earlier. It would make for a valuable comparative study for anyone interested in the future of the Catholic Church in Western countries.

yes it’s extraordinary. The church in Ireland just seemed all powerful and loved (or feared). Things just ain’t what they seem sometimes.

JMH
JMH
February 12, 2024 6:11 pm

Thank you, JC. That does need to be called out, along with her ‘that creature’ comment and now her desire to have me gone; learn to scroll. I will go, as I said, when I choose, if I chose, and if further comment arises about last Friday’s disgrace, then I will answer it if I happen to be passing by.

My God. You are still so obsessed with yourself, I’ve run out of paper bags to vomit into.

I think I may sit back and have some fun, tonight.

Either f/off or stay. Your alleged fans here are waking up, bimbo.

Bungonia Bee
Bungonia Bee
February 12, 2024 6:12 pm

“Sydney council has been accused of alienating members of the queer community after it refused to host any drag queen storytime events.

The Liberal-led Hills Shire Council voted 10-2 that it would not host the events, which are popular among other councils in Sydney and interstate, or any “sexualised material designed to target children”.
Link – might not work

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 6:12 pm
miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 6:13 pm

I suppose my view had been formed as an Australian protestant who has rubbed shoulders with people of Irish descent all my life and quite a few Irish. Met two today!

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 6:14 pm

99/00/01 I lived in a share house close to central Geelong Big old dump 1/4 acre block. Right up the end of the backyard was a caravan and annex etc. Bloke Terry and his dog lived there. He actually owned it all.

“Gday mate. What unit were you in?” WTF? “What unit were you in?”

103 Battery at Holsworthy. “Oh. Thought you might have been grunts.”

This dude could tell I was ex military somehow. He was SAS Vietnam. He is on an honour list on a SAS website. Real thing.

He told me some Top Secret shit. There was a G-man who would visit him every 2 or 3 weeks. checking he was chill etc.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 6:15 pm

No problems Liz. The black widow is still trying it on with all the bile that comes from a lonely, old damaged female sitting in the middle of the desert, angry those severed heads are talking to her.

Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 6:15 pm

yeah sure ! pile on me .. But any one who has ever had any thing to do with PR must have freaked out with “Oh Gawd 400 babies beheaded and women raped so hard by these Hamas savages that thier pelvises were fractured … i saw it with my own eyes”

At That point Israel lost. If you had told the Truth you might have been able to keep a rein on this ..

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 6:16 pm

Much-loved Aussie beer brand Hawkers enters administration after 10 years

Going broke, selling beer to Australians…

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 6:16 pm

Your alleged fans here are waking up, bimbo.

I’m sure they can, whereas parts of yours are in a freezer.

Bungonia Bee
Bungonia Bee
February 12, 2024 6:17 pm

The church in Ireland just seemed all powerful and loved (or feared). Things just ain’t what they seem sometimes.
I think Father Ted might have been the last straw.

Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:18 pm
Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
February 12, 2024 6:18 pm

JC
Feb 12, 2024 6:03 PM

LOL. The fat faced short arse Mafioso Bully has started up once more. ‘Argy Bargy’ time has arrived brought to you by the poster/imposter who doesn’t start one..

Yes it is a good idea and it was a good idea for me to come here. If only to annoy you.

feelthebern
feelthebern
February 12, 2024 6:18 pm

Sec Def back in hospital.

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 6:20 pm

Ha ha yes- maybe I watched too many episodes of Father Ted. Plus I’ve seen Once a Catholic twice (actually set in London).

JMH
JMH
February 12, 2024 6:20 pm

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare Avatar
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Feb 12, 2024 6:09 PM

‘word walls’ – ‘unhinged ranting’ and ‘girls, girls’

If people object to reading then they are on the wrong blog.

Look for one with pictures.

I dissect fairly forensically what people say.
That is the scholar in me. It is all we have to go on with a blog.
If you can’t be bothered to read my comments, too bad.
It won’t stop me putting my views into literate prose.
Not ‘sighs’ and other exasperations of the illiterate.

Let us not forget.

Carpe Jugulum
Carpe Jugulum
February 12, 2024 6:20 pm

feelthebern
Feb 12, 2024 6:18 PM

Sec Def back in hospital.

He has to resign.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 6:21 pm

shatterzzz

Feb 12, 2024 5:19 PM

When we contacted them they tried to get details of drivers licence numbers etc . “What for ?”

I contacted my local Fed member , Dai Le, by email over a gummint matter last week and the 1st reply asked for .. full name/address/phone .. DoB .. and a photo copy of driving licence/similar ID front & back ……

Unfortunately shatterzzz, because Dai Le knocked off Mean Girl 2 in the last election, the Liars are out to get her.
One trick is, Liars pricks in the public service or union offices spam her electoral office with thousands of bogus queries.
Then, come next election, they spruik that Dai Le only answers 31% of questions from “the public”.

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 6:21 pm

I lost most of my respect for the RC church after the cranky frankie putsch.

Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:24 pm
Carpe Jugulum
Carpe Jugulum
February 12, 2024 6:25 pm

Carpe Jugulum
Feb 12, 2024 6:24 PM

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Really??

Indolent
Indolent
February 12, 2024 6:26 pm
Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 6:26 pm

The folks that see the Holocaust as a Spielberg hoax and a grift are dining out on this ..and are making headway…

way to destroy you own platform …

And it may or may not me beliving this stuff … really why should any of you care ?

I have no control over how badly this will backfire on Israel ..

JMH
JMH
February 12, 2024 6:27 pm

Yoo-hoo, Cassie and Calli? Cat got your tongue?

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
February 12, 2024 6:27 pm

My God. You are still so obsessed with yourself, I’ve run out of paper bags to vomit into.

They’re cheap. You should come better supplied.

The door’s over that way, toilet down the hall.

I can do first aid should you require it.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 6:27 pm

Citation needed, including for the claim that Putin said he wants Moldova, the Baltic states and (especially) Poland.

I would be amazed if he has ever said any of these things.

OCO – I linked it for you. Look up Putin’s Peter The Great speech. Specific countries have been mentioned by his insiders, I think that is the case with Moldova and Kazakhstan. But it really lit a fire under the Moldovans at the time, they weren’t at all happy. The Kazakh government weren’t happy either. Medvedev has been especially mouthy.

Bungonia Bee
Bungonia Bee
February 12, 2024 6:28 pm

Suddenly! It all changes.
I’ve had a lot of amusement from Facebook’s Short Reels. They are often just homey stuff with pets, kids, horses, planes, cars, motorbikes.
Suddenly, like today – there’s a rash of women (pretty nice ones) saying they can’t get a man. Looks like a scam.
All of them have an Instagram contact (haven’t tried it)

Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
Elizabeth (Lizzie) Beare
February 12, 2024 6:28 pm

I think you might be here alone, JMH, because I’m off now too.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 7:48 pm

Suddenly, like today – there’s a rash of women (pretty nice ones) saying they can’t get a man. Looks like a scam.

BB – possibly an AI.

Man Uses AI to Talk to 5,000 Women on Tinder, Finds Wife (7 Feb)

It’s an AI-driven arms race between the sexes. Mutually assured destruction…

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 7:49 pm

JMH
Feb 12, 2024 6:27 PM
Yoo-hoo, Cassie and Calli? Cat got your tongue?

Stalker.

Dunny Brush
Dunny Brush
February 12, 2024 7:51 pm

I’m just glad they finally got around to banning ham sandwiches. Eternal life can’t be far of now.

Dunny Brush
Dunny Brush
February 12, 2024 7:53 pm

I’m also glad the government adverts on the teevee tell me footy training is now a girls thing.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 7:54 pm

My God. You are still so obsessed with yourself, I’ve run out of paper bags to vomit into.

Do you keep that in the fridge too, GMH?

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 7:55 pm

All the big bank propaganda is any human being except a white guy.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 7:56 pm

A gap in transmission between 1830 and just now?

Alamak!
Alamak!
February 12, 2024 7:57 pm

I’m also glad the government adverts on the teevee tell me footy training is now a girls thing.

Men are now being convinced that only girls can do the manly stuff. When men do it its toxic.

:confused

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 7:57 pm

Yet another good reason not to watch TV.

Alamak!
Alamak!
February 12, 2024 7:58 pm

A gap in transmission between 1830 and just now?

A pause to allow the database hamsters to refresh and reload.

Plus any Cats that need to stock up on bags could do so.

Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 7:59 pm

A gap in transmission between 1830 and just now?

Yep, I kept getting a could not establish connection to the database error.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 8:00 pm

miltonf

Feb 12, 2024 7:55 PM

All the big bank propaganda is any human being except a white guy.

I’ve said this before.
All the big corporate or government advertisers try to shoe-horn as many minorities into their adverts as possible.
Black, Asian, headscarves, gays, whatever.
With one exception.
Government domestic violence adverts.
Invariably pale, stale males.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 8:01 pm

A gap in transmission between 1830 and just now?

Ze cat, she was dead. And now ze is alive again! Is a miracle.
We probably should send Dover more money.

Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 8:01 pm

The idea of using a Maxim for drones??

Hmmm … could work.

(Possibly NSFW)

Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 8:03 pm

Oops … link no work. No idea why; I cut and pasted the link.

Alamak!
Alamak!
February 12, 2024 8:06 pm

Bruce in WA

No contact with web site allowed after hours (NSW). Try again in the AM.

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 8:06 pm

Government domestic violence adverts.
Invariably pale, stale males.

Yes cultural marxism. Just imagine the canbra Coven of pubic serpent wimmin with their BAs from the ANU and University of Canbra.

Roger
Roger
February 12, 2024 8:07 pm

Men are now being convinced that only girls can do the manly stuff.

Eh?

My wife relies on me to unscrew the jam jar.

And she’s pretty fit, goes to gym, does weights, etc.

Which men be ye referring to?

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
February 12, 2024 8:08 pm
H B Bear
H B Bear
February 12, 2024 8:09 pm

Going broke, selling beer to Australians…

Bondy and Big John (RIP)already ahead of you. It can be done but takes some effort.

132andBush
132andBush
February 12, 2024 8:14 pm

Zafiro
Feb 12, 2024 4:50 PM
I don’t know the exact stuff, but I would imagine that SAS soldiers have a bit more executive freedom than regular grunts etc.

No.
They are trusted to have and use good judgement. They failed. They abide by exactly the same rules.

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 8:14 pm
feelthebern
feelthebern
February 12, 2024 8:15 pm

I’ m reading Seymour Hersh’s account of the Presidency of John Kennedy “The Dark Side of Camelot.” Seems that, for most of his adult life, Kennedy was infected with V.D……

Nassir Ghaemi wrote a book called First Rate Madness.
There’s a decent chapter on JFK which goes through his physical & mental problems.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 8:17 pm

Bondy and Big John (RIP)already ahead of you

Alan (spit) vooking(spit) Bond(spit.) When that thieving prick kicked the bucket, some dimwits suggested he be given a State funeral…

Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 8:20 pm

When a bloke teaches you how to walk in the bush… how not to make a mistake and get your legs broken … when He looks after you and with his soft spoken leadership …just tells you Ok .. we take a rest here …and never so long as our blood went cold. He knew the exact moment we needed to be getting going. That Man knew how to lead men .. as he demonstrably had. His word took on a credibility. Mostly in so far as teaching us young buggers to bush slog … He only once said ..just like in VN only no Charlie Uniform November Tango is shootin at me … but instantly regreted it … It sounded too much like he was bragging .

Well .. veracity ? Hard thing to pin down .. but a bloke that isnt putting tikets on himself … clearly knows his way in the jungle and is a brilliant and inspiring Crew leder to a bunch of young blokes … Chewy Bone Oh .. why would he lie ?

feelthebern
feelthebern
February 12, 2024 8:20 pm

Doxxing to be made illegal in NSW.
File this under “laws that will be selectively enforced”.

Barry
Barry
February 12, 2024 8:21 pm

No wonder Marylin topped herself, copping a nasty dose from JFK.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 8:25 pm

It’s 1 and in the cities it’s estimated at .6 They’re gone for all money, and apartments…

Interesting the Wall Street Journal is citing Australian “experts”.

China’s baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse. And coping with the fallout may now be complicated by miscalculations made more than 40 years ago.

The rapid shift under way today wasn’t projected by the architects of China’s one-child policy—one of the biggest social experiments in history, instituted in 1980. At the time, governments around the world feared overpopulation would hold back economic growth. A Moscow-trained missile scientist led the push for China’s policy, based on tables of calculations that applied mathematical models used to calculate rocket trajectories to population growth.

Four decades later, China is aging much earlier in its development than other major economies did. The shift to fewer births and more elderly citizens threatens to hold back economic growth. In a generation that grew up without siblings, young women are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year. Beijing is at a loss to change the mindset brought about by the policy.

Births in China fell by more than 500,000 last year, according to recent government data, accelerating a population drop that started in 2022. Officials cited a quickly shrinking number of women of childbearing age—more than three million fewer than a year earlier—and acknowledged “changes in people’s thinking about births, postponement of marriage and childbirth.”

Some researchers argue the government underestimates the problem, and the population began to shrink even earlier.

Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 8:27 pm

H B Bear

Feb 12, 2024 8:09 PM

Going broke, selling beer to Australians…

Bondy and Big John (RIP)already ahead of you. It can be done but takes some effort.

If Bondy was still with us he’d probably be bidding for Channel 10 now.

Bourne1879
Bourne1879
February 12, 2024 8:28 pm

It is quite clear that some people here will never get on and it results in constant insults and never ending mostly repetitive arguments. Some days it definitely impacts the flow of the blog due to the sheer number on the back and forth. I found the upticking and downticking option useful as I could indicate support either way without having to get involved.

An idea for consideration.

It is simple. Lets say there are three pairs of people that are constantly at it.
A v B
C v D
C v E

They are simply told they can no longer interact with each other. Mention the other and a suspension for 3 days with no posting ability.

Obviously there could be responding via a proxy but this would become apparent.

Just a thought.

Winston Smith
February 12, 2024 8:28 pm

Bruce of Newcastle

Feb 12, 2024 12:17 PM
The reason why the wankocracy in the EU isn’t afraid of Russia is the Russian Army has been bled white. There’s nothing left in the tank. And tanks no longer work, btw, they’re just death traps.

That’s a trap quite a few European leaders have fallen into, Bruce.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 8:30 pm

Nassir Ghaemi wrote a book called First Rate Madness.

Looks like interesting reading, I’ll bag a copy.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 8:32 pm

More here:

Sorry, it’s a long piece, but I thought folks would be interested.

Part 2.

“Our forecasts for 2022 and 2023 were already low but the real situation has turned out to be worse,” said Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University who leads the population research in Melbourne.

China’s fertility rate is approaching one birth for every woman, less than half the 2.1 replacement rate that keeps a population stable. In the late 1970s, the fertility rate hovered around 3.

At the time, China was coming out of the chaos of the Cultural Revolution and about to embark on economic reforms. The country’s leader, Deng Xiaoping, and other officials became alarmed when a group of scientists told them that unless they started restricting births, China would have more than four billion mouths to feed in a hundred years.

An essay by some of the scientists published by the official People’s Daily in early 1980 suggested China’s search for a response to overpopulation “points to bringing the fertility rate down to 1…each couple having only one child.”

That fall, China started enforcing the one-child policy nationwide—but the calculations had missed some crucial factors.

China wasn’t the only country worried about overpopulation at the time. The rapid rise in the global population in the 1960s and ‘70s prompted fears that humanity would reproduce faster than food production could rise, an idea argued nearly two centuries earlier by economist Thomas Malthus.

Chinese officials were increasingly reviving scientific research after the Cultural Revolution. While social scientists had been persecuted by Mao’s Red Guards, others doing work related to the military had been partly shielded.

The group included Song Jian, a protégé of the father of China’s atomic-bomb program and one of China’s top scientists working on satellites and rockets. Song had studied in Moscow, where he got advanced degrees in a branch of mathematics known as control theory and in military science. Military officials sent him to a launch site for rockets and satellites in the Gobi Desert to escape the chaos of the Cultural Revolution.

Song, who eventually became China’s senior cabinet member heading science and technology, is now 92. He didn’t respond to requests for comment sent to the State Council and the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

In 1975, Song had been part of a Chinese academic delegation visiting the University of Twente in the Netherlands, where he got to know a Dutch mathematician, Geert Jan Olsder. Three years later, the two met a second time, at a conference in Finland.

Olsder, now in his 80s, said he talked about how his research with other mathematicians had been inspired by the warnings about finite global resources and how mathematical models could be applied to birthrates.
Song Jian with Dutch mathematician Geert Jan Olsder in 2004. Photo: Elke Toxopeus

Song spoke with the others in fluent English and showed a clear interest in mathematical modeling, Olsder wrote in an email. If the two hadn’t met, he said, he’s sure that some kind of population policy would have started in China, but perhaps a little later. “I feel like a domino stone in a long series of such stones,” he wrote.

Song refined his modeling over the next few years, and with a team of scientists began calculating how different fertility rates could affect China’s population size. In late 1979 he began to present officials with reports based on their modeling. He calculated that, at a constant fertility rate of three babies for every woman, China’s population would hit 4.26 billion by 2080.

With his computer-assisted mathematical models and political connections, Song caught the attention of top leaders. He argued that rapid population growth would prevent China from becoming a rich, modern country, said Susan Greenhalgh, an anthropologist at Harvard University who has written books about the one-child policy.

“He used a frightening narrative of a coming demographic-economic-ecological crisis to persuade people,” she said.

To ward off skepticism, officials said China could switch gears if births dropped too much. “In 30 years, the current problem of especially dreadful population growth may be alleviated and then [we can] adopt different population policies,” the Communist Party said in an open letter in 1980.

Within a little more than a decade, the fertility rate had dipped below the replacement rate. The cohort of young women was still massive, which kept the population growing. But the number of newborn girls was quickly dwindling.
Babies in a maternity hospital in Beijing in 1989. Photo: Peter Turnley/Corbis/Getty
Impact

As the decades passed, a growing number of demographers and economists called out the policy as outdated and flawed. China’s fertility rate would have gone down on its own as life expectancies rose and economic conditions improved, they say.

One factor missing from Song’s population math was human behavior. The government’s sometimes brutal enforcement, including forced abortions and sterilizations, as well as decadeslong propaganda about the benefits of having a small family, left a lasting one-child mindset. The modeling also failed to take into account the traditional preference for sons. If couples could only have one child, they would prefer to have a boy.

Young women are now at the core of China’s demographic dilemma. They are increasingly reluctant to have children—and there are fewer of them every year.

Greenhalgh, the Harvard anthropologist, said that the women growing up under the one-child policy were raised in line with Beijing’s goals of a smaller but what it called “higher-quality” population: well-educated, savvy and independent. “These women are not going to accept going back to the family to be housewives,” she said.

Apart from cultural and social changes, Song’s model hadn’t taken into account economic forces, such as the enormous migration flows to cities unleashed by Deng’s reforms, which played a bigger role than anyone had imagined in pushing down fertility rates, researchers have said.

Zuo Xuejin, a retired demographer who is leading the research team at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, sounded alarms about demographic implosion more than a decade ago, saying the conditions that may have warranted birth-restriction measures had all faded away.

“For many years overpopulation was China’s major concern. It was difficult to convince the government and the public that China will have the problem of fast decline and aging of the population,” Zuo wrote in an email.

Song has said he believed it had been a good call. China had successfully defused the bomb that could have led to a “population explosion,” he wrote in a 2010 essay published by the University of Jinan, his alma mater. “Zero growth [in population] is the destiny of modern mankind and an urgent task for contemporary China,” Song wrote. He estimated China’s population wouldn’t start shrinking until after 2035. He was off by more than a decade, with official data showing the drop starting in 2022.

Beijing has said the policy prevented 400 million births, a claim it has often put forth as a kind of Chinese gift to the world, including at the 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen. Demographers have disputed the figure, saying China’s fertility rate would have gone down on its own as economic conditions improved.

Demographer scramble

Even when Beijing dropped the one-child policy in 2015, leaders didn’t abolish birth restrictions altogether. Instead, it just pivoted to a two-child policy. Now, Beijing is urging people to have three, trumpeting the need to return to a “birth-friendly culture.”

Entrepreneurs, economists and demographers have tried to convey the idea that China needs more babies.

James Liang, co-founder and chairman of travel service provider Trip.com Group
and a research professor of economics at Peking University, co-founded YuWa Population Research Institute, a private think tank focused on demographic and public policy analysis.

Liang estimated that China needs to devote 5% of its gross domestic product—roughly equivalent to its education spending—on direct subsidies to promote births and lower the costs of raising children in order for the fertility rate to recover to 1.4, the average rate of advanced economies. His company gives its long-term employees an annual cash bonus of 10,000 yuan ($1,406) for each of their children until they are 5 years old.

Demographers are trying to catch up on the rapidly falling births. The United Nations’ population predictions for China, which were based on the country’s 2020 census and assumed a fertility rate of 1.19, are already out of step with reality.

Patrick Gerland, head of the U.N.’s population estimates and projection section, said their computing tries to capture long-term trends and isn’t made for rapid changes. He agrees with other researchers that put China’s fertility rate closer to 1.0.
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“In the case of a country like China where the fertility from one year to the next year has been changing so fast, we’ll have smaller population [projections] than what we had expected two years ago,” he said. The U.N. plans to update its forecasts in July.
Elderly people exercised at a park in Beijing in January. Photo: mark r cristino/

Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist in obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a critic of China’s birth restrictions, has long argued the situation is even worse than official data suggests. Yi believes China’s population actually started shrinking years ago, based on birth estimates pieced together from other available data, such as school enrollment and the number of vaccines for newborns.

“All of China’s population policies for decades have been based on erroneous projections,” Yi said. “China’s demographic crisis is beyond the imagination of Chinese officials and the international community.”

Once a generation of young people has made up their minds, it’s hard to change them, said Cai Yong, a sociologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

It’s possible fertility rates could now increase with official messages and policies promoting bigger families to a newer generation, said Cai, but “if it’s going to happen, it’s not going to happen in the short term.”

Roger
Roger
February 12, 2024 8:33 pm

All the big bank propaganda is any human being except a white guy.

My regional bank’s advertising features the worthy causes they’re sponsoring in the local community, including the youth footy competition.

It beats lesbians of colour and rainbows.

Vote with your money.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 8:35 pm

Shane Drumgold, Walter Sofronoff Supreme Court showdown begins

By ellie dudley
Legal Affairs Correspondent
7:35PM February 12, 2024

The first day of a legal throwdown brought by former ACT director of public prosecutions Shane Drumgold SC against the inquiry that ended his career will be heard in the ACT Supreme Court on Tuesday, in a battle the disgraced prosecutor hopes will reinstate his reputation and possibly catapult him back into his old job.

Mr Drumgold launched legal action against the ACT government and the inquiry, chaired by Walter Sofronoff KC, last year, challenging findings in the final report that he engaged in serious malpractice and grossly ­unethical conduct during the rape trial of Bruce Lehrmann.

Mr Sofronoff’s report – from an inquiry Mr Drumgold called for – found Mr Drumgold betrayed a junior lawyer who trusted him, acted with “Pilate-like detachment” during the trial, and treated criminal litigation as “a poker game”.

Mr Drumgold has conceded he made mistakes in the case but ­rejects the key findings of the inquiry that he had lied to the ­Supreme Court and engaged in serious misconduct.

He has also taken issue with the fact Mr Sofronoff gave his report to The Australian and the ABC under embargo before the ACT government made the findings public, alleging Mr ­Sofronoff failed to comply with s. 17 of the ACT Inquiries Act.

As such, he has taken the matter to the ACT Supreme Court claiming to have been denied procedural fairness, and is seeking a declaration that the report and its decisions are invalid.

The matter will be heard before Victorian Supreme Court judge Stephen Kaye because of a conflict of interest issue preventing it from being heard by a judge in Mr Drumgold’s jurisdiction.

In January, the court heard Mr Drumgold would attempt to prove Mr Sofronoff engaged in an “unreasonable” relationship with The Australian’s columnist Janet Albrechtsen while he was conducting the inquiry.

Mr Drumgold’s lawyer, Dan O’Gorman SC, wished to submit evidence of text messages, phone calls and emails between Mr Sof­ronoff and Albrechtsen, which he says speak to the “unreasonableness” of their relationship while the inquiry was conducted.

“We say the apprehended bias arises in this way – in the months leading up to and during the inquiry, Ms Albrechtsen was writing numerous articles … critical of Mr Drumgold,” Mr O’Gorman told the court.

He continued: “A comparison is made of communications Mr Sofronoff had with Ms Albrechtsen in particular and with other journalists. We point out that Mr Sofronoff made 65 telephone calls between Feb 9 and July 31, and … 55 were with The Australian.”

Mr Drumgold failed in a bid to strike out parts of Mr Sofronoff’s affidavit explaining why he engaged with the media throughout the inquiry, including comments “his interest was to ensure the accurate coverage of the work of the inquiry so far as he was able to do so”.

In mid-December, Justice Kaye allowed an application by six police officers seeking to uphold the inquiry’s findings to be joined as defendants.

His report found that while investigating the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins, the police “performed their duties in absolute good faith”.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 8:39 pm

Rooster

You’re always thinking of ways to support my banning or placing restrictions and limitations on the blog in general. Just as you’re concerned about stoushes, believe me, there are people here who are concerned with your low quality contributions (along with others). The only way to reduce low quality would obviously be to ban you, but no one is advocating that just yet, but we should.

Here’s a thought, start up Rooster’s blog and see how you go. I’m serious, you’re always posting about how unhappy you are with this or that, therefore show people how it’s done. Off you go. I’m supporting you, Roost.

Delta A
Delta A
February 12, 2024 8:40 pm

Mark Bolton
Feb 12, 2024 6:15 PM

This is why we need up and, in this vile case, downticks.

I don’t want visitors to believe that this is how all Cats think.

Disgusting!

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 8:40 pm

No.
They are trusted to have and use good judgement. They failed. They abide by exactly the same rules.

OK Thanks.

Salvatore, Iron Publican
February 12, 2024 8:41 pm

It is simple. Lets say there are three pairs of people that are constantly at it.
A v B
C v D
C v E
They are simply told they can no longer interact with each other. Mention the other and a suspension for 3 days with no posting ability.

You wouldn’t need to go even that far to end the juvenile carryings-on.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 8:42 pm

The Bourne Nonentity at 8:28.
Have you done the sums for Dover on how much the monitoring and moderation would cost?

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 8:44 pm

Try it at Public House, Drills. Have Rooster support you.

While you’re here, see if you can comment on something worthwhile like the huge population contraction in the world’s biggest and most potentially dangerous nation.

Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 8:45 pm

Further Old Mate was planning on going Off Grid ..and he damn well did … back in the 70s before such eccentricities were even remotely fashionable .. Man had no desire to build a career in military admin .. nor to repudiate such .. he told me his war story and I belived him He had no motivation to lie to me …again Chewy Bone Oh ..

A horrific story an one I believe..

I only hope I would have the guts to do what he did …. I doubt that I would.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 8:52 pm

No wonder Marylin topped herself, copping a nasty dose from JFK.

Jacqueline Kennedy’s reaction…..

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 8:56 pm

The Bourne Nonentity at 8:28.
Have you done the sums for Dover on how much the monitoring and moderation would cost?

Public House would be a great way to test Rooster’s mathematically based Blog Interaction Theory. Assuming Public House paces comments at its historical average of 279 comments in 15 years. It would mean having to deal with 9 comments a month or 2 comments a week. I think that sort of pace would be easy to work with as a test case.

Knuckle Dragger
Knuckle Dragger
February 12, 2024 8:56 pm

Have you done the sums for Dover on how much the monitoring and moderation would cost?

If one were to take this course of action, one would need an algorithm.

Otherwise, it would be solely dependent on the additional ‘moderators’ to determine who could converse with whom, and/or when. On a whim.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 8:59 pm

Agreed Delta
Posting hamas talking points again and again and again.
Meanwhile the IDF has made a successful foray into Rafah rescuing two hostages at zero loss of live in the IDF.
Hamas claiming 51 then one hundred innocent civilians killed.

I’ve seen footage of a Gazan hanging from a wall, no context other than somehow IDF were responsible.
Someone gave very precise intel about the location of these two
hostages.
Is there a connection?
Don’t know.
Israel being a people who truly believe in the sanctity of life will be celebrating wildly.
As they should.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 8:59 pm

Knuckle Dragger
Feb 12, 2024 8:56 PM

No shit. Approx 48 hours ago, Driller promised to never converse with me again or about me. It took less than 24 hours for a triggering to break his undertaking.

Knuckle Dragger
Knuckle Dragger
February 12, 2024 9:03 pm

Someone gave very precise intel about the location of these two
hostages

Indeed. ‘Intimate intelligence’, I believe, was the term used.

This means that at least some Palis (or Hamas dudes sniffing the wind and hoping to cut a deal at the eleventh hour) are sick of having their cash and food stolen and being used as human shields for people living in Qatar.

Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 9:04 pm

“Starship Troopers” depicts the US as a fascistic society? It was filmed as a deliberate slap in the face for Heinlein? It shows how citizens are lied to by their own government? The bugs are actually innocent creatures fighting for their own survival against the evils of colonisation?

Well, must admit, I hadn’t quite regarded it that way. But, see what you think.

Wolfman, I’d love your take on this.

Mark Bolton
February 12, 2024 9:06 pm

@Bourne1879
Feb 12, 2024 8:28 PM

How about this as an alternative? Never respond to any one that posts a nasty ad hom …

Never respond to anything that isnt kind and Life affirming and interesting.. and even then with something that might contribute to a civilized conversation … even if it is just pointing out others might have a contrary view point you might not like…

A lot of people will . And a lot less politely than I do …

Dot
Dot
February 12, 2024 9:06 pm

If I was in charge:

The deplorable word.

This place would look like Charn.

miltonf
miltonf
February 12, 2024 9:07 pm

Vote with your money.

absolutely- I’m with a regional bank but I still have to use big 4 atms (free of charge though).

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 9:07 pm

Knuckle Dragger
Feb 12, 2024 9:03 PM

Tick

H B Bear
H B Bear
February 12, 2024 9:10 pm

Mavis calls for the Beetrooter to resign. I’m sure nothing is further from his mind.

Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 9:10 pm

NOW, the link works … except it’s the wrong one. That’s the Maxim gun link.

WTF??

This should be the Starship Troopers link.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
February 12, 2024 9:15 pm

KD at 8:56

If one were to take this course of action, one would need an algorithm.

Otherwise, it would be solely dependent on the additional ‘moderators’ to determine who could converse with whom, and/or when. On a whim.

Who would decide these things?
Why, The People, of course.
Haven’t you paid attention to anything?

Dot
Dot
February 12, 2024 9:20 pm

Have they seen the numbers for South Korea?

Feminism.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 9:22 pm

I’m inclined to Hamas adjacent as they knew which room they were in.
Of course it could have been a family hosting but given the apparent quantity of hamas on guard duty I’d say very intimate, and probably had made themselves scarce.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 9:25 pm

Sassari far more substantial than Oblia, no doubt a reflection of the decline of Oblia under the Aragonese regime.
The religious buildings alone are testament.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 9:26 pm

The West is importing replacements, China, not so much.

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
February 12, 2024 9:27 pm

Don’t know if it’s a local thing, but the big 4 banks have removed their stand alone ATMs and now there are only 2 ” no name” ATMs you are both limited in how much you can get out, and they charge $1.50 to do so.

Amazing how they all independently, at the same time, removed the tellers.

If I were a cynic.

Knuckle Dragger
Knuckle Dragger
February 12, 2024 9:27 pm

Who would decide these things?
Why, The People, of course.

Specifically, a CommiTtee of Teh PeoPle.

Haven’t you paid attention to anything?

Attention to what?

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 9:28 pm

They do actually, Dover and I’ve read pieces in their op-eds about the problem in the west. This was a news piece though focusing on China and they possibly believe the issue is more acute there because of the one child policy. I actually read about Sth Korea and Taiwan in the WSJ.

The population numbers for China could very well be incorrect because I’ve read a few times the regions/provinces lie about their numbers in order to gain more funding from Beijing. They also have a census, which would surely make it harder to cheat, but the provinces may have a large amount of input on how it’s conducted. Dunno.

Boambee John
Boambee John
February 12, 2024 9:29 pm

“All of China’s population policies for decades have been based on erroneous projections,” Yi said. “China’s demographic crisis is beyond the imagination of Chinese officials and the international community.”

Yet western “social” scientists continue to assume, arrogantly and wrongly, that they are smarter, and their population models are better.

Central planning can never, ever, work because the latest data are always out of date, and projections forward are essentially the assumptions of the researchers, not the latest measure of reality.

Muddy
Muddy
February 12, 2024 9:29 pm

That the rescuers were able to make an unforced breach in the perimeter, as claimed, would indicate either inside assistance or a dreadful lapse in terror-monkey security.

As I commented earlier – after Bern first broached the news – the involvement of Shin Bet suggests either an informer, or the unit (of Shin Bet or the police, I cannot remember) that specialises in inserting ‘Arabic’ agents.

One wonders why the raid was staged when it was, as apparently it had been mooted previously but cancelled for unstated reasons.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 9:32 pm

Whatever the takeaway is about China , the problem focuses on our exports. Exports pay for our imports and the last time commodity prices were in the doldrums, the aussie reached a low of .4850. Potentially a massive problem for us.

John H.
John H.
February 12, 2024 9:37 pm

dover0beach
Feb 12, 2024 9:17 PM
Does the WSJ worry about demographic decline in Western countries or is this more of their ‘China’s in trouble’ agitprop? Have they seen the numbers for South Korea?

SK is .78 and the government is introducing financial incentives for youngin’s to meet up. The problem is longstanding in Japan and present in many countries. Even Russia has a problem. Issue is compounded by huge drops in sperm count but I think the problem is more sociological than biological.

132andBush
132andBush
February 12, 2024 9:39 pm

Rosie
Feb 12, 2024 8:59 PM

Agreed Delta
Posting hamas talking points again and again and again.

Re the beheaded babies.
The fact this was not true was used against me yesterday in a very tense and ongoing debate with a lefty Palestinian supporter friend.
I countered with the fact that any babies being murdered was an atrocity.
The sad fact is these non verified reports, when proved false, are not helpful.

MatrixTransform
February 12, 2024 9:41 pm

My wife relies on me to unscrew the jam jar.My wife relies on me to unscrew the jam jar.

for a joke, a mate bought my missus one of these … Avanti Jar opener

first time she used it she didn’tjust crack the seal to assist before twisting the lid off.

nah … tore it off like a bottle-top off a stubby

excellent behaviour

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 9:43 pm

the involvement of Shin Bet suggests either an informer, or the unit (of Shin Bet or the police, I cannot remember) that specialises in inserting ‘Arabic’ agents.

I don’t have a link, but I would cite you the case of the terrorist cell that wasn’t having a successful run – their operations were failures, and Israeli police rounded up their members. They were in the habit of patronizing an elderly Arab, who ran a stall selling tea, and who they talked quite freely about upcoming operations in his presence.

Imagine their consternation when the Israeli Army raided their headquarters and arrested the lot, and one of those present, in Israeli uniform, was an elderly Arab who ran a stall selling tea…

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 9:45 pm

John H

The incentives, where they’ve been introduced have just taken the birthrates up a fraction only. Hungary went apeshit with incentives. It went up a tiny bit but still well below replacement.

I think it’s more than an economic problem, I think large numbers of sheilas just don’t want kids in developed countries.

WolfmanOz
February 12, 2024 9:47 pm

Bruce in WA
Feb 12, 2024 9:04 PM
“Starship Troopers” depicts the US as a fascistic society? It was filmed as a deliberate slap in the face for Heinlein? It shows how citizens are lied to by their own government? The bugs are actually innocent creatures fighting for their own survival against the evils of colonisation?

Well, must admit, I hadn’t quite regarded it that way. But, see what you think.

Wolfman, I’d love your take on this.

Happy to oblige – here for my nightly visit.

I’m quite a fan of director Paul Verhoeven who makes confronting and commercial films but I don’t rate this as one of his best, despite some interesting ideas and sequences.

I liked the satire and the bugs were a fearsome adversary (not sure they were innocent creatures) but as a whole it never felt it quite jelled for me.

Films of Paul Verhoeven I really like and admire are:
Soldier Of Orange (1977)
RoboCop (1987)
Total Recall (1990)
Basic Instinct (1992)
Black Book (2006)

132andBush
132andBush
February 12, 2024 9:49 pm

JC Avatar
JC
Feb 12, 2024 9:32 PM

Whatever the takeaway is about China , the problem focuses on our exports. Exports pay for our imports and the last time commodity prices were in the doldrums, the aussie reached a low of .4850. Potentially a massive problem for us.

Grain prices are certainly going the wrong way. Not very encouraging given the input costs.
We have been lucky for the last few years though. High prices with good seasons, it never lasts.

Muddy
Muddy
February 12, 2024 9:54 pm

Bruce in WA
Feb 12, 2024 9:04 PM

“Starship Troopers” depicts the US as a fascistic society?

Interesting. Thanks.
Not having read the novel, I’m in no position to make a comparison or analysis.

What did seem strange to me on first viewing was that despite their advanced technology (space travel), humanity was still utilising kinetic weapons for their infantry. There were also no supporting arms/weapons to be seen, apart from the small nuclear bunker-buster RPGs.

With hindsight, if not for Dizzy (Dina Meyers), I could not have cared less about any of the main characters.

To paraphrase The Critical Drinker: ‘Anyway, I’ll go away now.’

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 9:54 pm

Good luck with it all, Bush.

————————-

We really are a trading nation imports, exports and trade balance reaching ~50% of our GDP. Extraordinary.

Those trade routes better stay open.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 9:55 pm

Search The Times and The Sunday Times
French burglars get away with vintage wines worth millions
Gangs beat high-tech security to steal bottles destined for the tables of Beijing and Moscow

Adam Sage, Paris
Sunday February 11 2024, 8.30pm, The Times
Food and drink
PATRICK KOVARIK/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Share

France’s finest wines are not only cherished by connoisseurs, but criminals too have a taste for them.

With prices reaching thousands of euros a bottle and rising demand from Russian oligarchs and a new generation of millionaires in Asia, a sophisticated black market has developed.

“There have been gangs stealing great Bordeaux wines for the past century,” said Maître Julien Plouton, a lawyer in the city who has defended suspects accused of wine thefts in prominent cases. “But since 2019 there has been a very big increase linked to strong demand on the Asian market, notably in Hong Kong and mainland China.”

Last month La Tour d’Argent, a Paris restaurant, discovered that it had lost 83 bottles worth a total of €1.5 million. There was no sign of a break-in, prompting speculation that the theft was either an inside job or linked to recent building work.

The restaurant, which is said to have up to 400,000 bottles in a cellar that contains one of the world’s great collections, seems to have little clue when they disappeared. All it knows is that it must have happened at some point between 2020, when one inventory was completed, and the start of this year, when another was undertaken.

Aymeric de Clouet, an expert who oversaw an auction of 18,000 of La Tour d’Argent’s bottles in 2009, said the thieves had been blinded by greed. Among their haul was at least one bottle of Romanée-Conti, the most sought-after Burgundy. It is valuable: a bottle of the 1945 fetched £439,000 at an auction six years ago. But is also difficult to sell, he said.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 9:57 pm

Bush, I dunno much about the commodity futures markets, but can you say hedge by buying a grain put option in a good year for the outer years? Too expensive?

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 9:59 pm

“Starship Troopers” depicts the US as a fascistic society? It was filmed as a deliberate slap in the face for Heinlein?

Verhoeven only did that because he was so threatened by the zeitgeist of the book. Which is conservative libertarian. Lefties hate that, with a passion.

Fascist societies are lefty. The Left has been gaslighting us on fascism for eighty years. They own it.

I like the idea of franchise requiring completion of national service, and all pollies must’ve served. That would be an excellent shock to the system!

MatrixTransform
February 12, 2024 10:07 pm

I like the idea of franchise requiring completion of national service

hmmm…

national service is yr education

and dying is yr duty

… it’s a better end than building pyramids for a lifetime

John H.
John H.
February 12, 2024 10:07 pm

JC
Feb 12, 2024 9:45 PM
John H

The incentives, where they’ve been introduced have just taken the birthrates up a fraction only. Hungary went apeshit with incentives. It went up a tiny bit but still well below replacement.

I think it’s more than an economic problem, I think large numbers of sheilas just don’t want kids in developed countries.

JC that’s why I suggested it is sociological. Remember the decades when it was said a woman could have it all? That myth is no longer embraced. The problem now is for most to raise a family requires two incomes because the big incomes come later in the career. It is unrealistic to expect women to obtain their degree then work for a few years and give up career prospects to raise children.

I remember interviews with Japanese young women who said they saw their mothers stuck at home alone because the husband was always at work or socializing after work. That put them off, they didn’t want to be condemned to a life stuck in the house. Raising a family has to compete with so many other ways to live and childhood memories of absent fathers and lonely mums are potent disincentives. Was Cats in the Cradle a prophetic song?

I sometimes wonder if government attempts to encourage more children have the perverse effect of making it too expensive. For example, a residential developer said he loved the first home buyer’s grant because it boosted housing prices. Child care subsidies and even textbook subsidies might be another example of that. Family payments are a huge welfare cost yet attract little attention.

We can’t assume a universal cause across nations or a single dominant cause. For example, Russia is a strange case that doesn’t easily fit into the picture.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 10:10 pm

I currently have two young brushtails bouncing on my tin roof. It’s fun! They each got half a slice of bread and half a large carrot. They are elder sister and young brother.

Today was excellent, I got the third young grey butcherbird to accept food from my hand for the first time. Yesterday one of the northern magpies’ chicks did that also, he did it again today, with some preparatory arrangement… It’s an acclimatization exercise, you have to get them used to the stress and fear, in small progressive steps, for them to overcome it. And reward them when they try. They’re like small children.

JC
JC
February 12, 2024 10:10 pm

For example, Russia is a strange case that doesn’t easily fit into the picture.

What’s the story there?

H B Bear
H B Bear
February 12, 2024 10:10 pm

Having a kid is a vote for the future. No wonder there’s a few issues.

MatrixTransform
February 12, 2024 10:11 pm

and very, very bug-like

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 10:14 pm

I like the idea of franchise requiring completion of national service, and all pollies must’ve served. That would be an excellent shock to the system!

Could you imagine serving alongside the likes of Anthony Albanese? Lidia Thorpe? Linda Burney?

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 10:19 pm

Could you imagine serving alongside the likes of Anthony Albanese? Lidia Thorpe? Linda Burney?

With relish! It’d be so much fun. I could even imagine myself being Lee Ermey, although I never got further than private. I can dream though.

Albo cleaning a toilet with a toothbrush, what a wonderful fantasy!

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 10:21 pm

Starship Troopers was funny and dorky. Was kind of a piss take yeah?

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
February 12, 2024 10:29 pm

Whenever I reread Starship Troopers I do so in company with rereading Forever War by Joe Haldeman.

Our society is becoming very much like the latter, with institutionalized homosexuality, population reduction and standardization of thought. I wish it were more like the former, with service, individual excellence and dynamism.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 10:41 pm

I read a couple of articles about Japanese fertility, those that marry have children, but a increasing number don’t ever marry, especially low income men, though you’d think, given what marriage is, it would apply to both low income men and women, presumably low income women are more successful in marrying up.
Oh and anecdotely, professional women approaching forty often get that incredible urge.
Then it’s IVF, with mixed results.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 10:52 pm

Albo cleaning a toilet with a toothbrush, what a wonderful fantasy!

“Recruit Albanese! You horrible, disgusting disgrace to the Queens uniform! There is one thing lower then shark sh!t at the bottom of the ocean, and you are IT!”

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 10:56 pm

Culurgiones Sardi.
Delicious!

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 11:01 pm

Recruit Albanese LOL. He reminds me of some schmucks who got punted early doors at Kapooka.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 11:03 pm
Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 11:06 pm
Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 11:09 pm
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
February 12, 2024 11:16 pm

Recruit Albanese LOL. He reminds me of some schmucks who got punted early doors at Kapooka.

“Recruit Albanese! Caught with your hands in your pockets! Two grades of people are permitted to have their hands in their pockets in this military district! One are pregnant women, the other are p##fters! It is obvious that you are not pregnant, so we must endeavor to curb your disgusting tendencies! Three times around the parade ground! DOUBLE AWAY!”

Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 11:19 pm

Wolfman, thank you for that. Must admit I’m not a real fan of any of those movies. I find them … abrasive.

Muddy: Yes, apart from magazine capacity, I found the weapons pretty anachronistic. But Denise Richards stirred my hormones mightily, so I was prepared to forgive most things.

Was going to post a Playboy nude, but the, it’s not THAT sort of blog.

So this will have to suffice (a poor second).

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 11:20 pm
Bruce in WA
February 12, 2024 11:20 pm

…, but THEN, …

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 11:21 pm

Hi Rosie. I caught a bit of your travelogue here and there when on the blog. Interesting. Corsica. Foreign Legion home base. My favourite Army.

Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 11:22 pm
Rosie
Rosie
February 12, 2024 11:26 pm

Eylon Levy quoting David Shoebridge complaining about how the IDF rescued Israelis during Super Bowl.
the greens

Steve trickler
Steve trickler
February 12, 2024 11:29 pm

Busy day.

158 camels and 7 horses eliminated.

—-

Jack Out The Back:

Join Jack and Danny as they have a long hot day dragging dead camels away from the water points, but have to shoot more as well, because the camels just keep coming. Join them as they fix a few of the yards and a tank that’s been attacked by the camels. Another day of hot and heavy work that is physically and emotionally straining at time.

Cleaning up and making repairs; Camels causing chaos.

Bourne1879
Bourne1879
February 12, 2024 11:30 pm

Well at least JC recognises who is the problem. 2nd to react was his proxy.

“You’re always thinking of ways to support my banning or placing restrictions and limitations on the blog in general”.

MatrixTransform
February 12, 2024 11:37 pm

Well at least JC recognises who is the problem

JC, a paranoid moron

Top Ender
Top Ender
February 12, 2024 11:38 pm

Our society is becoming very much like the latter, with institutionalized homosexuality, population reduction and standardization of thought. I wish it were more like the former, with service, individual excellence and dynamism.

Ya Bruce for President!

Zafiro
Zafiro
February 12, 2024 11:54 pm

Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts. Jacinta Price from the Alice. That is it. Tell me if I am missing anyone.

John H.
John H.
February 13, 2024 12:01 am

JC
Feb 12, 2024 10:10 PM
For example, Russia is a strange case that doesn’t easily fit into the picture.

What’s the story there?

1.49 fertility. Obviously not about wokeness. Alcoholism is a huge problem. Life expectancy 73 years, woeful. Might be that to get ahead is very much about who you know and corruption.

Alamak!
Alamak!
February 13, 2024 12:04 am

Don’t know if it’s a local thing, but the big 4 banks have removed their stand alone ATMs and now there are only 2 ” no name” ATMs you are both limited in how much you can get out, and they charge $1.50 to do so.

Amazing how they all independently, at the same time, removed the tellers.

I’d vote for a bank tax to support cash management services to support anyone offering cash deposit/withdrawal service (7-11 bunnings, pubs, utilities, …). Around 500M/yr should be enough.

JC
JC
February 13, 2024 12:43 am

How did Putin achieve this miracle?

John H.
John H.
February 13, 2024 12:53 am

dover0beach
Feb 13, 2024 12:15 AM
Life expectancy 73 years, woeful. Might be that to get ahead is very much about who you know and corruption.

Life expectancy was declining all through the ’90s and was around 65 years of age by 2000. Putin turned it around and its been steadily climbing since then, an average of 8 extra years v 2000 in two decades is pretty good.

How do you know that was Putin? A country doesn’t quickly recover from 100 years of communism. It might just be a natural recovery that has nothing to do with Putin.

Alamak!
Alamak!
February 13, 2024 1:07 am

Life expectancy was declining all through the ’90s and was around 65 years of age by 2000. Putin turned it around and its been steadily climbing since then, an average of 8 extra years v 2000 in two decades is pretty good.

One guess might be that applying market forces to the price of vodka has made it far more expensive for the kulaks to drink themselves into oblivion.

KevinM
KevinM
February 13, 2024 1:30 am

I don’t know if it was Putin or the Fairy Godmother who made it happen, but I find it strange that people on the one hand give credit to someone like Trump for all the good that happens in one country, but steadfastly refuse any positive achievement to an other leader, who happened to had more time in office and worked through a much more difficult problem.

Biased much?

JC
JC
February 13, 2024 1:40 am

Interring. I took a look at countries having a similar GDP level to Russia’s and it’s still lower.

Greece, Chile,Turkey all higher. Greece and Chile much higher.

JC
JC
February 13, 2024 1:56 am

Biased much?

Not really.

Trump lowered the corp tax rate and the economy boomed pre-covid. He did things to the border and the inflow went down to a trickle. He avoided wars and strengthened NATO by forcing countries to pay some more of their way. He made people aware that the media was mostly fake news.

The Soviet Union broke up, and communism fell. Russia turned more toward private enterprise and while it took a decade or so to turn things around, Russia is better for it. Is Putin really responsible for that or the fact that the place is no longer a communist shithole? 30 or so years since communism and the place still hasn’t reached lifespans enjoyed in Greece, Chile and Turkey.

However, Putin is the best investor the world has seen. On a salary equal to around 150K, he owns something like 20 villas, with one costing US$1 billion and recently built a new one with a modernist touch. He’s worth an estimated US$200 billion. Incredible achievement.

John H.
John H.
February 13, 2024 2:39 am

KevinM
Feb 13, 2024 1:30 AM
I don’t know if it was Putin or the Fairy Godmother who made it happen, but I find it strange that people on the one hand give credit to someone like Trump for all the good that happens in one country, but steadfastly refuse any positive achievement to an other leader, who happened to had more time in office and worked through a much more difficult problem.

Biased much?

Asking to substantiate the causation is not bias it is logical. For example, one question to ask is did child mortality decline during the relevant period and if so why. Another issue when did nutritional improvement begin and in what age groups. Simply saying Putin did it, without any explanation of how he did it, that is bias.

KevinM
KevinM
February 13, 2024 3:04 am

Simply saying Putin did it, without any explanation of how he did it, that is bias.

I did not attribute the change to him, neither did you give a reason for refuse.

But there is a lot behind the scenes that we could discuss.

One thing you have keep in mind, after the regime change the old communist leaders and insiders did more damage to the then economy than the whole Soviet regime ever did, the Soviets were simply incompetent fools following a failed doctrine of Marx and co.

The oligarchs who bought the means of productions, sometimes on a non repayable state loan, absolutely gutted the Russian economy.

It took a strong leader and sometime unpalatable means to reverse that.

BTW, those unpalatable means happen in the US as well, strange suicides with a bullet wound in the back of the head comes to mind.

Or the more civilised way of legal procedures to achieve the same end that is silence and disable the opponent politically, financially, like with Trump and others, never mention the poor baskets languishing in jail after the last “uprising”.

Comparing countries only works if you set a common starting point, if you were miles behind the starting line it takes time to catch up if ever.

But we heard it all before on this forum so it’s a waste of time even talking about it.

PS Putin’s wealth and villas, if you how that system works you would know that they are all financed by the state and will revert to the state, the leader has the use of them only, and unlike Zelinsky’s overseas acquisitions they are located in Russia.

Rosie
Rosie
February 13, 2024 3:14 am
Rosie
Rosie
February 13, 2024 3:27 am
Rosie
Rosie
February 13, 2024 3:29 am
Rosie
Rosie
February 13, 2024 3:30 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:00 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:01 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:02 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:03 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:04 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:05 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:06 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:08 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:09 am
Tom
Tom
February 13, 2024 4:11 am
johanna
johanna
February 13, 2024 4:21 am

I don’t want to be here, but I do think you need to take a damned good look at yourself

It’s a parody of a parody of a parody.

‘I don’t want to be here’ and variants have popped up for years. At one stage, she claimed to be hiding behind the bathroom door with her phone, having told the Beta that she was giving up at last.

It was hilarious! 🙂

Narcissists don’t understand dignity and restraint, which may apply to some of your friends,

KevinM
KevinM
February 13, 2024 4:30 am

Narcissists don’t understand dignity and restraint, which may apply to some of your friends,

I take no sides in this, but sometimes a few phrases makes me stop in my tracks, who on earth would utter and why, something like “the scholar in me” makes me do it?

I think there are quite a few real scholars on this forum who would never declare to be one to support their argument.

Whatever makes them happy.

Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
February 13, 2024 4:32 am

Thanks Tom.

Tintarella di Luna
Tintarella di Luna
February 13, 2024 5:13 am

Trump lowered the corp tax rate and the economy boomed pre-covid. He did things to the border and the inflow went down to a trickle.

I was listening to Dave Rubin yesterday and in the December of 2020 the full count of illegal crossings at the border totalled 17, with Biden in December 2023 the totall of crossings was over 191,000 illegals crossings and that was only counting those who’d come from south of the border, it did not count illegals from the Middle East, Asia or Africa. So there you have it.

Rosie
Rosie
February 13, 2024 5:15 am
Tintarella di Luna
Tintarella di Luna
February 13, 2024 5:23 am

Couldn’t sleep and have been watching beautiful fashions in fashion shows in Damascus – 6 years ago, the fashions are opulent, lush, lots of flash and flesh — when the designers come out the women are covered with only eyes showing, any male designer is in ordinary clothing.

The gowns are just gorgeous, the models are well-fed and beautiful and walk normally without the camel-crossing gait, all the models are fair-skinned with only one exception I have seen so far, have seen no Nigerians at all, and no dour faces either.

This was 6 years ago though so clearly no DEI at play. Lovely fabrics and fashions, most enjoyable.

Rosie
Rosie
February 13, 2024 5:38 am
KevinM
KevinM
February 13, 2024 5:45 am

Tintarella di Luna
Feb 13, 2024 5:13 AM

Trump lowered the corp tax rate and the economy boomed pre-covid. He did things to the border and the inflow went down to a trickle.

I was listening to Dave Rubin yesterday and in the December of 2020 the full count of illegal crossings at the border totalled 17, with Biden in December 2023 the totall of crossings was over 191,000 illegals crossings and that was only counting those who’d come from south of the border, it did not count illegals from the Middle East, Asia or Africa. So there you have it.

I have absolutely no argument against it.
My problem in understanding the savage critique of the lower GDT and slower advance in living standard, is the blindness in comparing the two.

It is like this, Trump can open a tap on an existing system with an executive order and make the water flow, Biden can close that tap with his own order and stop it.
Example, the gas pipeline, etc.

Russia has to build the system first, big ask, hence the unfair comparison.
I know we are talking ideologies, waste of pixels, but still from time to time one has to join in and try to set the records straight.

How successfully?
Not very.

132andBush
132andBush
February 13, 2024 6:40 am

JC
Feb 12, 2024 9:57 PM

Bush, I dunno much about the commodity futures markets, but can you say hedge by buying a grain put option in a good year for the outer years? Too expensive?

Sorry JC, I was in bed.

A few farmers do and I’m not sure how it goes for them. You always hear varying reports. And I admit I don’t know enough to comment.

On farm storage is key and is what a lot of people have turned to.
– It enables a speedy harvest.
– You know what quality and quantity of grain you have, not everyone else, as it’s not “in the system”.
– The grain market can fluctuate wildly and the ability to jump in at the top of the market from your own storage, straight to an end user, is money in the bank. The price spike thanks to the Ukraine invasion being a prime example. Even I did well out of stored canola that year, picking up +$350/t. The people I work for picked up +$400/t on 1,500t.

Gez may know more on futures etc.

Vicki
Vicki
February 13, 2024 6:59 am

Just scrolling back through last night’s posts & read BoN’s post re feeding birds by hand & the joy this brings. So agree. Husband gets enjoys watching the variety of birds coming to the bird feeder he built recently & to the 4 birdbaths in our garden grounds at the farm. Such a delight.

Mother Lode
Mother Lode
February 13, 2024 7:09 am

smart gazans getting out of Rafah

What? How can that be?

The MSM has told me that the Gazan civilians are trapped – penned in – so if Israel attacks they will do knowing that innocent civilians had no way out and that they were sure to kill them.

Mother Lode
Mother Lode
February 13, 2024 7:16 am

According to US Senator James Vance of Ohio, the new spending bill before Congress contains provisions such that were Trump to cut funding to Ukraine against the advice of career (swamp) experts (who have seen this damn thing grow so out of hand already) then it would be a violation of ‘budget law’ and provide grounds for impeachment.

They are trying to tie Trump’s hands regarding foreign policy already.

Trump is the only one who has spoken about resolving the conflict but the Democrats seem to have monomaniacal determination to keep it going.

Dot
Dot
February 13, 2024 7:31 am

I don’t want to be here, guys.

Dot
Dot
February 13, 2024 7:36 am

According to US Senator James Vance of Ohio, the new spending bill before Congress contains provisions such that were Trump to cut funding to Ukraine against the advice of career (swamp) experts (who have seen this damn thing grow so out of hand already) then it would be a violation of ‘budget law’ and provide grounds for impeachment.

This is all so silly. Congress passes a new budget each year and the President has unchallengeable executive authority. If he had any discretion at all it can’t be delegated to people outside of Congress or the Presidency. A Congressional “expert” is not a constitutional officer and the President can override any underling.

It will create a sound byte that dum dum normies will believe as a biased media packages it to them on commercial radio and other dinobore TV “news”.

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