New Catallaxy

Vaccine passports are not inevitable

There are a number of problems with contemporary conservatism. One involves its near universal voluntary surrender of public office over the last 30 or so years to its enemies. Another is its fatal mistake of thinking that culture was downstream of politics, not vice versa. But the mistake I want to concentrate on today is its usual surrender to what it believes is now inevitable. Nothing encapsulates this better at present then Tom Elliot on 3AW Drive ‘conceding’ that we just have to prepare for vaccine passports and the two-tiered life that this will involve in the near future. Go to the 1:33:00 min mark and listen to the short exchange between Tom and a caller.

Beyond the ridiculous argument that the vaccine greatly reduces the chance of transmitting COVID at a large public event (the absolute risk reduction (ARR) is 1.3% at best; people that focus on relative risk reduction (RRR) and not ARR are being tendentious because the chance of catching it and getting sick are already quite low) you see him suggest at the end of the exchange that vaccine passports is ‘just where we are headed’. And if you think that being fully vaxxed means two doses now, sorry to inform you, passports will likely require you to keep up date, which means regular boosters, to remain valid.

Returning to our friend, Tom Elliot, earlier in the program he referred to the French experience, but he never raises the fact that this decision by Macron has led to large on-going protests in Paris and beyond for the last two months. The same is true in Germany, Italy, and the UK.

So why this rush to surrender to the inevitability of vaccine passports rather than pleading the case incessantly against them and other ill-considered COVID restrictions? I think it has something to do with overweening pragmatism. Elliott is so focused on ending the lockdowns that any policy that may end them is being seriously entertained no matter how ill-thought out. None of the jurisdictions with vaccine passports is experiencing zero community transmission; new cases as of yesterday in France and Germany, were 3795 and 6805, respectively. The problem in Australia, is not vaccine coverage, it is the absurd requirement of zero community transmission; vaccine passports will not prevent zero community transmission and therefore will not prevent further lockdowns.

So, even at the level of practicality, the inevitability canard is ineffective. It concedes a great deal and returns nothing. Which leaves us with problem of principle or the lack thereof. A two-tier system (vaxxed and unvaxxed) of public life for the foreseeable future is not a reasonable and principled solution to the problem of forever lockdowns. Added to this is the precedent/ premises it establishes for future purported emergencies and they are as tremendous as they are pernicious.

dover0beach

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39 responses to “Vaccine passports are not inevitable”

  1. CrazyOldRanga Avatar
    CrazyOldRanga

    As I have just sent an email to my local “member”, The Tudger, regarding this very issue I hereby award myself the Precog Award of precognition, or something.

    As you were.

  2. CrazyOldRanga Avatar
    CrazyOldRanga

    This is the reply that I got.

    Good afternoon James,

    Thank you for your email. Your comments and concerns have been noted and passed on to Alan for his information.

    Alan understands that many in the community remain hesitant about getting vaccinated.

    COVID-19 vaccines are not mandatory in Australia, it is voluntary and people have the option to choose to have it.

    The focus remains on getting as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible and seeing restrictions removed as soon as possible.

    Businesses have the existing right to stop someone from entering their premises, or refuse to serve someone, as long as they don’t breach any anti-discrimination laws. Businesses also have an obligation to consult with their staff and to keep their workplaces safe. These are rights and obligations under existing law, and they are subject to limitations under existing law. Both of these decisions are made by businesses themselves.

    Internationally, proof of COVID-19 vaccination or immunity is required for travel to many countries (as is proof of yellow fever vaccination). Australians will be able to use a digital vaccine certificate and seal for international travel once international travel resumes. People seeking to enter Australia will be asked to show proof of vaccination or immunity. This will help protect Australia from international travellers bringing COVID19 into the country.

    In regards to domestic travel, decisions around internal border closures and lockdowns are a matter for state and territory governments.

    The Government is very conscious that the COVID-19 pandemic has been a very difficult time for families and couples that have been kept apart by border closures. The National Plan gives a good indication to the Governments position on Covid-19 vaccinations, lockdowns and international borders. It also includes provisions for unvaccinated individuals.
    https://www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/national-plan-to-transition-australias-national-covid-19-response-30-july-2021.pdf

    If you have any additional questions or concerns please do not hesitate to reach out to our office and we will do our best to assist you.

    Kind regards,

    Kaycee Ferreira | Electorate Officer

  3. Woolfe Avatar
    Woolfe

    I recently had a twitter exchange with a Sydney lawyer who seems to think that NSW will open up for international travel before other States.

    People are really grasping at straws and still believe what the government says. I asked how this would be managed so he resorted to sarcasm and mumbling about Doherty Report. So he had no answer

    The Doherty Report mentions case rates in different states but not opening up individual States.

    Here there be madness. I really must have a break from Twitter.

    And on another issue have just realised that I am the only one of all of my Aussie friends who questions the matrix we find ourselves in.

  4. a reader Avatar
    a reader

    That’s the worst sort of fob off. One that doesn’t actually respond to your email at all and just makes assumptions from a proforma template. But it does confirm that there is not even a sliver of liberalism left in the liberal party

    4
  5. Ellen of Tasmania Avatar
    Ellen of Tasmania

    Vaccine passports are not inevitable

    Well, our precious government’s ‘National Plan’ (thanks, Ranga) certainly seems to think they are.

  6. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    I sent off a couple of angry letters to my local LNP reps (fed and state) a while back when they initially failed to defend personal liberties and the constitution (state border closures).

    I was pleased to receive a fed response which was not pro-forma. I didn’t agree with all the points he made, but I did make sure to thank him for his personal response.

    The state member sent me some boilerplate bullshit – but he’s a squishy wet, so no surpise.

    For the record, here’s where they stood two weeks ago. Of course it doesn’t rule out vaccine passports, it just says they don’t have a policy (“for now”, nudge nudge)

    I should make clear that the Government has always said that the COVID-19 vaccine will not be compulsory. That has not changed. All vaccinations – including childhood vaccinations and those for the flu – are logged and digitally available through the Medicare website and app. However, as the Prime Minister repeated last week, “the vaccination program in Australia is free and it is not mandatory. That is a very important principle. We are not going to seek to impose a mandatory vaccination program by the Government, by stealth. That is not what we’re going to do. It is a non-mandatory program. … it is important that Australians know that we are not going to seek to impose a mandatory vaccination program in this country by some other means.” He reiterated that point on Sunday, clearly stating “the government doesn’t have a policy of vaccine passports. We don’t have one. There isn’t a policy of vaccine passports. And so to suggest there is would be false.”

    of course, the above becomes a moot, as he went on to write:

    (under the) roadmap, we are increasingly able to lift restrictions for vaccinated Australians.

    so how do you intend to police that, buddy ?

    1
  7. CrazyOldRanga Avatar
    CrazyOldRanga

    Did anyone notice that she didn’t mention singles in the reply? Needless to say I have pointed this out and am still awaiting a response.

  8. Arky Avatar
    Arky

    I should make clear that the Government has always said that the COVID-19 vaccine will not be compulsory

    ..
    That’s a lie:

    Mr Morrison even went so far as to suggest the grounds by which exemptions should be granted.

    “There are always exemptions for any vaccine on medical grounds, but that should be the only basis,” he said.

    1
  9. Muddy Avatar
    Muddy

    If only I had a vaccine passport that declared I was immune to vaccine passports.
    (Or at the very least, to Palazchuk or Berejiklian, whatever they are (weepy pustules?).

    1
  10. Leon L Avatar
    Leon L

    Moscow ends vaccine passports after just three weeks

    In 2021, you find more democracy in Russia than Australia.

    4
  11. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    That’s a lie:

    yup.

    My fed member response was Aug 18.

    Aug 25: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/25/scott-morrison-backs-vaccine-passports-saying-businesses-have-right-to-refuse-entry

    The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, has thrown his support behind the use of vaccine passports,

    1
  12. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    /scott-morrison-backs-vaccine-passports-saying-businesses-have-right-to-refuse-entry

    Since when have they had a right to ask for personal medical information?
    Since when was there an ability to easily provide it?

    4
  13. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    Since when was there an ability to easily provide it?

    its not a passport.. its a ‘certificate’.

    I’ve just thrown this bullshit back at my local fed member. Its taken exactly one week for his words to be meaningless. *this* is why trust in government is at an all time low.

    4
  14. dover0beach Avatar
    dover0beach

    Moscow reversed its policy because people stop going to stores. We should do the same.

    2
  15. Wally Dalí Avatar
    Wally Dalí

    Aid Lawyer asked me if I was vaxxed, or if I was committed to getting vaxxed in the future, because if I could show that I was doing the right thing, she believed that the magistrate would look favourably on my case.
    As Neville Oz would say, this country’s stuffed.
    The Lizard People have won.

    1
  16. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    dover0beachsays:
    August 31, 2021 at 6:31 pm
    Moscow reversed its policy because people stop going to stores. We should do the same.

    I agree completely. Despite being (soon to be #2) vaxxed, I will refuse to use any business which asks me for any medical information.

    I will go out of my way to support businesses which do not.

    6
  17. Speedbox Avatar
    Speedbox

    “Vaccine passports are not inevitable”

    Yes, they are. Like many here, I have written numerous times over the past 18 months to my State and Federal members and complained about the assorted controls that have been, and will be, implemented. I usually get a reply and usually it is the boiler-plate version. Sometimes it has some mild deviation (meaning somebody actually read it) but mostly not.

    So, whilst we at the Cat(s) may howl at the moon as much as we like, the die is cast. Our voices are too few and too isolated. Millions of people are in favour of vaccinations and even the continuation of ‘fortress Australia’ into the foreseeable future has many in agreement. The corollary of this must be that if most favour vaccinations, the introduction of a methodology to ‘prove it’ must follow.

    Remember that the primary source of news for most Australians is the MSM and social media. You know that dissent is not tolerated and you can be de-platformed and/or the attack dogs will pile-on. The MSM and the major social media platforms have been in lockstep with the governments as have services like Google etc to weed out inconvenient truths.

    Separately, you must know that every government is undertaking polling and the results are beyond question. The overwhelming majority accept that the government has acted appropriately. (!) The only issue seems to be the delay with the vaccine rollout.

    Don’t also forget that as the number vaccinated increases, the relative ‘authority’ the government has to impose conditions (such as a passport) increases. So, as the number vaccinated advances, each one is interpreted a signal to the government that their actions are vindicated (and the scare campaign works).

    Don’t get me wrong – I am as appalled as anyone here – but there is an overwhelming inevitability to vaccination ‘passports’. What’s more, without proof of your vaccination status, you will be denied entry to a wide range of venues, pubs, schools, gyms, some sports etc. Travel overseas? Forget it for the next several years. In some rare cases, you may even be denied travel to some interstate capitals. There is no doubt that if you live in a city or major population centre, and especially if you have kids, life will become much more difficult. We have already seen that employers are starting to line up and ‘offer’ vaccination to their workforces and in some cases it’s mandatory. No jab, no job.

    In the past, I have commented on the Cat about the inevitability of electric cars and not all Cats agree with me. Ok, fair enough, but if it was possible, I am even more certain about the introduction of a passport/certification that attests to your vaccination status as I am about electric cars in the future.

    1
  18. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    Aid Lawyer asked me if I was vaxxed, or if I was committed to getting vaxxed in the future

    That sounds remarkably like swearing fealty.
    Hitler demanded that of his troops.

    2
  19. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    Speedboxsays:
    August 31, 2021 at 6:42 pm
    What’s more, without proof of your vaccination status, you will be denied entry to a wide range of venues, pubs, schools, gyms, some sports etc. Travel overseas?

    Travel overseas I can deal with – there are already restrictions, no (Yellow fever, etc etc), no ?

    It behooves every one of us who objects to this, and who is in a position to do so, to push back.

    If you have any standing or position in your local sports club, business, whatever.. push back.

    That’s what it will take. Do not roll over and ask for a tummy rub.

    4
  20. Dr Faustus Avatar
    Dr Faustus

    duncanm’s member lays out the Government’s official position:

    He [Morrison] reiterated that point on Sunday, clearly stating “the government doesn’t have a policy of vaccine passports. We don’t have one. There isn’t a policy of vaccine passports. And so to suggest there is would be false.”

    Arguably, strictly true.

    However, the Government has set up online passport infrastructure and Morrison is enthusiastically reminding businesses that they have the legal right to refuse service to the unvaccinated:

    “That’s a legitimate thing for them to do, and they’re doing that to protect their own workers, to protect their other clients.”

    So, while Morrison will likely avoid the political odium of introducing and enforcing a formal internal Australian passport, he is actively facilitating a de facto ‘bottom up’ passport system.

    A greasy duck shove, as laid out in Kaycee Ferreira’s message to CrazyOldRanga.

    Vile man.

    2
  21. miltonf Avatar
    miltonf

    As if the country didn’t have enough problems before the scamdemic. What a mess they have made of the economy and society or maybe that was always the plan.

    1
  22. Mater Avatar
    Mater

    However, the Government has set up online passport infrastructure

    Yep.
    That’s the centre of gravity. If that didn’t exist, the whole concept couldn’t exist.

    1
  23. MatrixTransform Avatar
    MatrixTransform

    post-pandemic there’ll be nothing left except cockroaches and journalists

    1
  24. Speedbox Avatar
    Speedbox

    duncanmsays:
    August 31, 2021 at 7:02 pm

    You’re right. There are any number of small to medium venues that won’t bother simply because they don’t have the capacity to check (ie. a person on the door).

    Even larger venues will find it very difficult – imagine trying to get 100,000 people into the MCG and every person’s covid vaccination status has to be checked! Or 150,000 into the F1 GP, or any cricket match…….

    As correctly pointed out, if this starts to have a cost in terms of bums on seats/cash through the till etc, the appetite for checking will diminish fairly quickly. Plus, there will be no way of knowing (at the time or possibly ever) whether the person entering is actually showing a valid ‘certificate’ or a fake. Ditto with QR code check-in.

    Look at Woolies/Coles. When assorted requirements for QR codes came in, both Woolies and Coles had people on the door checking. But now, very rare except maybe at peak times and even then, they are really only watching if you point your phone at the code – not actually checking the log in on the phone’s screen. But long term, neither Woolies/Coles and others will pay someone to stand on the door checking QR codes. If you have ever done any work for them you will know how mean they are with every dollar. (Woolies have almost 1000 stores = 1000 staff to check QR codes x say, $22/hour….. = no way will they pay that).

    So, to be clear, whilst I think some form of vaccination proof will be implemented, it will be hit-and-miss with many venues. Over a year or maybe less, I think the overwhelming majority of venues will find the task soooo onerous and the respondents so hostile/uncooperative and the data so useless, they will give up.

    That is not to say the government will give up on boosters and documenting your compliance.

    1
  25. Speedbox Avatar
    Speedbox

    Should have mentioned that international airlines will enforce compliance for some time but they are in a different category than your local Woolies, hairdresser or tennis club.

  26. a reader Avatar
    a reader

    How long before we start having COVID parties? The French are doing a roaring trade in it at the moment

    1
  27. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    So, while Morrison will likely avoid the political odium of introducing and enforcing a formal internal Australian passport, he is actively facilitating a de facto ‘bottom up’ passport system.

    these are almost the actual words I just wrote to the member. Morro / the feds are, by not banning certificates/passports/stars/qr-codes, de-facto supporting them.

    I asked if that means we should add measles and flu shots, make sure we mark the Hep-A and HIV positive, etc.

    Infectious diseases discrimination is unlawful in NSW:
    https://caldronpool.com/infectious-diseases-discrimination-is-against-the-law-says-nsw-government/

    1
  28. C.L. Avatar
    C.L.

    I think it has something to do with overweening pragmatism.

    The performance of the Liberals throughout this supposed crisis has been woeful. As for the country’s most conspicuous conservatives, most of them have a platform on Sky and every night they roll out three hours of the same why-oh-why program. Tonight, there was talk of Morrison instituting a “Freedom Day” – and there is always talk of freedoms being “given back” to us. At the same time, of course, the presenters steer clear of any endorsement of protest. I’m so sick and tired of whining without militancy. Freedom does not belong to the state and can never be given back to us. It has to be taken back.

    6
  29. 132andBush Avatar
    132andBush

    “ these are almost the actual words I just wrote to the member. Morro / the feds are, by not banning certificates/passports/stars/qr-codes, de-facto supporting them.”

    So gutless are they that the method chosen is to effectively turn the population against itself.

    1
  30. Joanna Avatar
    Joanna

    However, the Government has set up online passport infrastructure
    ________________
    Hopefully it will be just another over-budget, non-performing piece of junk like everything else governments have had a go at implementing.

    1
  31. dover0beach Avatar
    dover0beach

    At the same time, of course, the presenters steer clear of any endorsement of protest. I’m so sick and tired of whining without militancy.

    Indeed. There is a presumption in favour of the law; this is no small thing but it is limited. When an ordinance of law is contrary to reason we are under no obligation to respect it. To return to Elliott, he whinges and moans about lockdowns, etc. but whenever militancy is raised either manifested as organised protest/ civil disobedience or people ignoring a COVID order by not wearing a mask or travelling further than 5 km he backpedals. It is just pathetic. He was only this afternoon disapproving of someone emotionally broken by the current lockdown travelling more than 5kms to visit a friend.

    1
  32. Salvatore, Understaffed & Overworked Martyr to Border Closure Avatar
    Salvatore, Understaffed & Overworked Martyr to Border Closure

    Freedom does not belong to the state and can never be given back to us.

    Yep.

    1
  33. Edddystone Avatar
    Edddystone

    Vaxx passports are not inevitable. It might seem so at the moment, but many battles have been seemingly lost, only to turn at the last minute.

    I believe their is a groundswell of awareness that all is not right with the government/opposition narrative.

    Andrew Leigh blocking Craig Kelly from talking about the Borody therapy looked exactly like what it was, an attempt to censor information that dismisses the ‘narrative ‘.

    Gradually people will put two and two together.

    We mustn’t give in.

    4
  34. MatrixTransform Avatar
    MatrixTransform

    in talks with a hotel (you know what sort)

    they are having trouble getting services to perform tech work

    nobody is VX’nated that they need to get minimum services

    hold the line

    2
  35. MatrixTransform Avatar
    MatrixTransform

    these people are stupid and helpless

    fuck ’em

    1
  36. Shy Ted Avatar
    Shy Ted

    You might not need a vax passport if you can provide proof of Bells Palsy.
    I don’t normallly wish ill on others but I’m prepared to make an exception in this case. This man needs lots of media exposure at the moment and for the next few months.

    1
  37. cuckoo Avatar
    cuckoo

    Saw Andrews on the news last night saying that the “return” of freedoms was guaranteed – guaranteed – once we get to 80 percent vaccinated. Though he immediately qualified that: guaranteed “as much as is possible during a global pandemic”.

    So there we have it. Guaranteed.

  38. dover0beach Avatar
    dover0beach

    Where is the IPA and CIS on vaccine passports? Are they going to claim like the Restaurant & Catering Association, Australian Hotel Association and Australian Chamber of Commerce that excluding their unvaxxed customers is fine so long as they themselves can get back to work?

    Kudos to IPA. Just noticed they had someone on Bolt arguing the wrongs of vaccine passports.

    1
  39. duncanm Avatar
    duncanm

    Ok,

    now the limited six-month efficacy of the ‘vaccines’ is out of the bag, I think passports are dead in the water.

    There is now strong evidence that the immunity offered against [the Delta variant] by two vaccine doses wears off almost entirely after eight months

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