Open Thread – New Year’s Weekend 2023


The Dreamer, Casper Friedrich, 1840


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Old School Conservative
Old School Conservative
January 3, 2023 9:13 am

Shatterzz, your stories of swimming were part of my motivation to get back into ocean swimming after a long……long absence.
Keep going “old fella”, and many happy returns of the day.

Kneel
Kneel
January 3, 2023 9:18 am

“Also, make sure you’re wearing clean undies in case you’re run over by a bus…”

At the Simpson’s apocalypse…

Marge: “Bart, are you wearing clean underwear?”
Bart: “Not any more.”

Figures
Figures
January 3, 2023 9:21 am

Cassie, every word of every one of your posts is absolutely perfect.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 9:21 am

I put up the WSJ piece yesterday.

Even the Wall Street Journal is printing an opinion that the vaccines might be driving the new variants.

The WSJ editorial page is incomparable to anything in the MSM. There’s nothing quite like it.

The only concern I have is that Bloomberg is making noises that wants to buy it. If that happens the MSM hatch will be closed. He’ll turn it left.

miltonf
miltonf
January 3, 2023 9:23 am

In 2023, we must take on the technocrats– too damn right but how?

calli
calli
January 3, 2023 9:26 am

But don’t you go talking about apartheid in its broader sense! No, no, no!

It only means South Africa, regardless of its use worldwide as shorthand for racial/economic/political segregation.

Yesterday was very instructive.

MatrixTransform
January 3, 2023 9:27 am

The happy hooker

I wonder what she’s doing for work now … ?

and, from the comments.

Make sure you disinfect the Poutana’s Office before you move in Adem

lotocoti
lotocoti
January 3, 2023 9:28 am

Diversity and Inclusion takes all sorts.
The sacred NHS is the envy of the world.
Apparently.

calli
calli
January 3, 2023 9:28 am

Happy Birthday Greta!

How does it feel to be twenty and still considered a “child”?

shatterzzz
January 3, 2023 9:29 am

Shatterzz, your stories of swimming were part of my motivation to get back into ocean swimming after a long……long absence.

Always in awe of folk who ocean swim .. I’m not much chop at it too used to the calm of the enclosed pool .. went to the beach (Mascot) with grandees last week and the swell was around a metre and the water looked very bleak .. “going in Grandad” sez one .. “Not today, bit too rough for me I’ll stick to the pool” ..

Cassie of Sydney
January 3, 2023 9:30 am

“Yesterday was very instructive.”

Indeed, opposing the Voice makes me a supporter of South African “apartheid”.

MatrixTransform
January 3, 2023 9:32 am

Have the dickheads gone?

one of them is still on wiki trying to work out what kinematic viscosity means

Big_Nambas
Big_Nambas
January 3, 2023 9:32 am

Slowly but shirley, eventually even Rosie will wake up;

There should, of course, be much more evidence on early spread. The World Health Organisation in June 2020 called for early spread to be properly investigated. However, very little has been done, and particularly in the United States, the various Government agencies have made no efforts to investigate early spread as part of their general neglect and squashing of all investigations into Covid origins.

Such silence and obfuscation only raises suspicions. And there is no shortage of reasons to be suspicious. The lack of genetic diversity in early samples, the high degree of adaption to humans from the outset, the absence of animal reservoirs and the presence of unique features that make the virus highly infectious among humans suggest that it was not natural but engineered, and thus either leaked from a lab or was released. Who was involved in the research that created the virus and the course of events that led to its getting into the human population is therefore a question of great importance that must continue to be pursued.

https://brownstone.org/articles/the-evidence-covid-19-was-spreading-around-the-world-in-late-2019/

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 9:32 am

PONZI!!!!!

Come on down population ponzi – Dan needs a new pair of shoes!

Can we refer to the unipary as MAPs – Migration Addicted parasites?

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/03/migration-to-australia-set-to-rebound-to-pre-pandemic-levels-report-finds
Australia has lost 473,000 potential migrants as a result of Covid, but net inward migration is now on track to rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 235,000 people a year, the Centre for Population has found.

The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said the centre’s 2022 statement, to be released on Friday, confirmed migration was “part of the solution” to skills and labour shortages.

The report finds that Covid travel restrictions resulted in the loss of 85,000 people in 2020-21, Australia’s first net migration loss since the second world war.

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After borders reopened in late 2021, a “sharp increase in migrant arrivals” resulted in a net inflow of 150,000 in 2021-22, it said. This is on track to increase to 235,000 in 2022-23, the pre-pandemic trend level.

shatterzzz
January 3, 2023 9:35 am

Happy Birthday Greta!

Lucky girl .. she’s in good company .. me & Kyle Rittenhouse.. LOL!

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 9:38 am

Knuckle Draggersays:

January 3, 2023 at 12:24 am

The roadhouse grogan story had to be the most magnificently crafted, yet overt pack of lies for all of 2022.

Threw his pants out the window. Yeah righto, Walter Mitty.

To call it a “story” doesn’t do it justice. It was a series of loosely connected tales, with the central theme being the mobile ablutions practices of Indian truckdrivers.
The first episode was the story of the Kenworth maintenance shop in Adelaide (or maybe Melbourne) where the mechanics discovered holes cut in the floor and a mysterious substance coating the engine below.
Episode two was the epic story of four (4) Indians sharing the driving to Perth non-stop in a similarly modified vehicle, fitted out with a fully functioning tandoori oven.
The third episode sees our intrepid bronzed Aussie hero stepping in some squishy stuff at a Hay truck-stop. Once on the road again he identifies the substance as Indian poo and throws his soiled trousers out the window.
Soiled by others.
Not him.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 9:40 am

Farmer Gezsays:

January 3, 2023 at 9:12 am

The happy hooker ain’t so happy.

Almost certain to land a plum job among the 300,000 of Dan’s minions.

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 9:41 am

Once on the road again he identifies the substance as Indian poo and throws his soiled trousers out the window.
Soiled by others.
Not him.

Shadows of Joe Biden..

“Security – trump has shat in my trousers again”!

Anchor What
Anchor What
January 3, 2023 9:42 am

Happy Burfday Shatterzz!
How many laps do you do when you’re swimming and 70+?
Asking for a friend.

alwaysright
alwaysright
January 3, 2023 9:46 am

How many laps do you do

For me, it depends on the size of the bowl.

shatterzzz
January 3, 2023 9:48 am

How many laps do you do when you’re swimming and 70+?

Prairiewood, which is just a walk away, 20/30 ..
Fairfield, bike 1 hour each way, 12 (600mts) to allow for the trip home .. LOL!

Plasmamortar
Plasmamortar
January 3, 2023 9:50 am

U.S. attacks Russia again…

I don’t see this not ending in a nuclear exchange unless the U.S. and NATO back off….

We’re closer to WWIII scenario than we ever were during the cold war and western leaders don’t see it.
Drunk on their perceived invincibility…

It will kill us all.

Zipster
January 3, 2023 9:59 am

Australia has lost 473,000 potential migrants as a result of Covid, but net inward migration is now on track to rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 235,000 people a year, the Centre for Population has found.

10% of the population per decade, we will have been fully replaced within another 50 years

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 9:59 am

An Australian mong sets out to lecture the yanks on how their constitution is a poo-poo head and all wrong.

Im tempted to post this over at Instapundit to see if theyd like to correct some of his assumptions there.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fnational%2Fthe-us-constitution-s-flaws-about-to-be-put-on-show-20230102-p5c9u0.html

No passage has been more misappropriated than the Second Amendment, which notes that “the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed”. As people will hear, however, the primary focus of the founding fathers was the creation of a “well-regulated militia” rather than the firearms they would carry. The intention was to guard against a standing army, which in post-revolutionary America was seen as a tyrannical throwback to the days of British rule.

For almost 200 years, then, the Second Amendment was often referred to as the “lost amendment” because in an America that ended up creating a professional fighting force, the US military, it was considered obsolete. Not until 2008, following a decades-long propaganda campaign by the National Rifle Association to twist and falsify its meaning, did the conservative-leaning Supreme Court make the Second Amendment the constitutional basis for individual gun ownership.


The irony is that the court’s hardline conservative justices are driven by a philosophy of jurisprudence known as originalism, which determines controversial rulings, such as the overturning of Roe v Wade, based on their interpretation of the original intent of the Constitution.

He actually goes the whole – if conservatives respect the court then the conservative court can never overturn a liberal “right” made up out of whole cloth…

Dr Nick Bryant is the author of When America Stopped Being Great: A History of the Present.

Bar Beach Swimmer
January 3, 2023 10:03 am

Gabor:
He had no answer, unless I missed it, to why someone has to dress as a ‘queen’ to read to children.

The real question Munster should address is who/what characters and their human coat hangers would he not want his or any other kids to sit down with for story time?

There is no congruence between queered “Snow White” reading to tiny tots, for e.g. Thomas the Tank Engine & Friends and Julie Andrews starting as Mary Poppins, Judy Garland playing Dorothy or Stallone as Rambo.

So, to what end is he there and what message is his presence sending out to his “audience”?

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:05 am

net inward migration is now on track to rebound to pre-pandemic levels of 235,000 people a year, the Centre for Population has found.

So much for Albanese’s pre-election promise to the working class to cut back immigration and upskill locals.

I suppose it was “non-core”, although nobody in the media seems to have asked him about it.

calli
calli
January 3, 2023 10:07 am

BBS, the “message” is simple:

– you are nothing, your objections are nothing
– your children will be ours
– we rule you and you will obey

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:09 am

75 years young today .. 3/4 century gone with 42 years of them a recovering alcoholic behind me …..

Many happy returns, Shaterzzz and congratulations on 42 years of sobriety.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 10:11 am

Campaign for Indigenous voice to rise with grassroots effort

EXCLUSIVE
By PAIGE TAYLOR
Indigenous Affairs Correspondent, WA Bureau Chief
@paigeataylor
8:45AM January 3, 2023
715 Comments

Labor and Indigenous supporters of the voice will launch the Yes campaign with a “week of action” next month, including the recruitment of everyday Australians as volunteers.

Doorknocking and community barbecues will start across the nation next month in an effort to propel momentum for a successful referendum on the question of whether to amend the Constitution to guarantee the existence of an Indigenous advisory body to parliament. The Yes campaign will begin in the same week that No campaigners Warren Mundine and senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price are due in Perth to try to convince the West Australian Nationals to withdraw their support for an Indigenous voice.

715 comments so far – all but three opposing the “Voice.”

calli
calli
January 3, 2023 10:15 am

Gardener’s thought for the day.

Bluey
Bluey
January 3, 2023 10:17 am

I can’t see too many of the immigrants to this place supporting elevation of Aboriginals over everyone else.

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 10:17 am

Fiona Patten accuses Adem Somyurek of being a Muslim and opposing things antithetical to his faith.
I guess if islam is a race, she’s a racist.
Bigot would have been better.
Despite her high profile she only got 16,000 odd first preferences, the people have spoken.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:21 am

Labor and Indigenous supporters of the voice will launch the Yes campaign with a “week of action” next month, including the recruitment of everyday Australians as volunteers.

Looking forward to some background profiles of these “everyday Australians.”

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 10:21 am

Yes yes the vaxxes are bad and saved no lives in 2021.
I’m not bothered about the antigen thingy because it isn’t relevant to people who got the astrazeneca vaccine (now called Vaxzevria)
Which I see is being used as a booster overseas and apparently getting good results.
Not available in Australia though.

Bluey
Bluey
January 3, 2023 10:25 am

Rogersays:
January 3, 2023 at 10:21 am
Labor and Indigenous supporters of the voice will launch the Yes campaign with a “week of action” next month, including the recruitment of everyday Australians as volunteers.

Looking forward to some background profiles of these “everyday Australians.”

Professional protesters and agitators you reckon? Tell me it ain’t so…..

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 10:25 am

Yes it’s a fantastic effort Shatterazz.
Of the three alcoholics of my acquaintance one stayed sober until he died of an unrelated cause.
The other two died too young as a direct result of their alcoholism.
Very sad.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 10:27 am

Jailing children a costly failure when trying to cut crime Mindy Sotiri

12:00AM January 3, 2023
166 Comments

When unthinkable crimes occur our collective outrage quickly catapults us into action.

We seek answers to reasonable questions; how and why did this happen? And how do we ‘”fix’’ the system to prevent this from happening again?

The politically popular response, without fail, is to “get tough” on crime. The announcement of snap policies, such as harsher penalties, more prison beds and limiting the right to bail have become the default political flex because of their ability to create, at least in the short term, a perception of safety and security.

However, as mounting international evidence shows, policies designed to placate a nervous constituency without accounting for the drivers of crime rarely lead to safer communities, and can in fact have disastrous consequences for disadvantaged and vulnerable populations.

Sometimes these consequences are unintended. For example, in 2017, 41 per cent of women in Victoria’s prisons were unsentenced and held on remand, typically for non-violent offences. Just a few years later, this figure has climbed to 56 per cent, driven in large part by the introduction of tougher bail laws following the Bourke St rampage that killed six people. When the Victorian government restricted access to bail, lawmakers presumably didn’t intend to lock away more women, many of them vulnerable and with no prior prison history, for offences for which they had not yet been convicted.

But sometimes – as we are now seeing in Queensland with the announcement of two new youth detention facilities and longer sentences for children following the tragic death of Emma Lovell – a terrible crime will trigger a rapid policy response that will operate to draw more people into the criminal justice system.

The question we need to ask ourselves as a community is: What impact will this actually have when it comes to improving community safety?

Children who are imprisoned almost invariably come from circumstances of poverty, disadvantage and trauma – these are key drivers of crime.

Acknowledging these drivers does not excuse crime or minimise its severity. However, understanding the circumstances in which most crime is committed provides critical context for better understanding what we need to do if we truly want to get serious about addressing it.

The evidence is very clear that the threat of harsher penalties for children does not work to reduce crime. Queensland already imprisons the highest number of children Australia-wide, with the youth prison population increasing by 27.3 per cent over the past seven years. The evidence is also clear that locking children up does not work to deter, to rehabilitate or to improve community safety. Almost all young people imprisoned in youth detention in Queensland reoffend within 12 months of their release.

What we do know is that the experience of prison causes further trauma to a highly vulnerable group, making it more likely children will reoffend after their release, creating a “revolving door” in and out of the criminal justice system.

Policymakers around the world, and increasingly around Australia, are recognising the failure of imprisonment in terms of its crime control ambitions, and are instead moving towards criminal justice policies based in evidence, not populist rhetoric. It costs $1880 per day or $686,127 per year to imprison a child in custody in Queensland. Imagine if that funding was invested in community-led alternatives that actually have an evidence base in terms of reducing crime.

There are multiple evidence-based reforms we can look to immediately that will make a difference and are extraordinarily economical when compared to incarceration. There are opportunities for community-led diversion at the point of police and court (including bail support programs for people in the community); there are First Nations-led responses that are place-based, culturally meaningful and already achieving incredible outcomes for those who are able to access them; there are health and community focused responses at the point of release from custody that show dramatic reductions in recidivism.

Taxpayers would be far better served by significant investment in early intervention, early prevention, diversion and evidence-based alternatives outside the youth justice system. Keeping people out of prison and reducing crime is not an unsolvable puzzle. We need to acknowledge the overuse of imprisonment has been a policy failure; we need adequate funding for evidence-based alternatives; and we need the political leadership and will to embrace the evidence about what genuinely works to build safer communities.

Zipster
January 3, 2023 10:27 am

It took me four years to paint like Raphael, but a lifetime to paint like a child.

– Pablo Picasso

idiot

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:27 am

I can’t see too many of the immigrants to this place supporting elevation of Aboriginals over everyone else.

I don’t know why indigenous folk aren’t against mass immigration as a matter of principle.

Doesn’t it just further the colonialist agenda?

H B Bear
H B Bear
January 3, 2023 10:28 am

715 comments so far – all but three opposing the “Voice.”

The Paywallian is hardly representative but I just cannot see this being a re-run of poofta marriage.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 10:28 am

Professional protesters and agitators you reckon? Tell me it ain’t so…..

Anyone rocking up to my place to urge a “Yes” vote for the Voice will have the dogs set on them.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 10:29 am

I’m not bothered about the antigen thingy because it isn’t relevant to people who got the astrazeneca vaccine (now called Vaxzevria)

Also, rosie: I’m not bothered about the Jews in camps thingy because it isn’t relevant to people who aren’t Jews in camps.

Bluey
Bluey
January 3, 2023 10:32 am

Rogersays:
January 3, 2023 at 10:27 am
I can’t see too many of the immigrants to this place supporting elevation of Aboriginals over everyone else.

I don’t know why indigenous folk aren’t against mass immigration as a matter of principle.

Doesn’t it just further the colonialist agenda?

The activists I’ve had anything to do with, and a significant chunk of others, see it as a “screw whitey”. No longer term thinking how it’ll screw them as well, just hate on white people.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:33 am

But sometimes – as we are now seeing in Queensland with the announcement of two new youth detention facilities and longer sentences for children following the tragic death of Emma Lovell – a terrible crime will trigger a rapid policy response that will operate to draw more people into the criminal justice system.

Isn’t it the committing a crime that draws one into the criminal justice system?

As to early intervention, all well and good in theory, but removing indigenous children to stable white foster families where they can be diverted from criminal patterns of behaviour will produce howls of protest from the usual suspects.

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 10:34 am

That has to be one of the stupidest analogies I’ve ever read
I was talking about my personal circumstances in response to Big Nambas. Nothing else. I’m getting a booster this afternoon, as I may have mentioned before Christmas.

Go find someone else to attack you pathetic git.

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 10:36 am

Children end up in prison because their parents have completely abrogated their responsibilities.
No elders past present or emerging, no Voice will make an iota of difference.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:39 am

The activists I’ve had anything to do with, and a significant chunk of others, see it as a “screw whitey”. No longer term thinking how it’ll screw them as well…

Hard to wring white guilt out of your average aspirational migrant, I should think.

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 10:40 am

Can someone with an Oz sub please post the full text of this article? We could all do with a laugh.

SA Liberals call in Jones and Deves

Former broadcaster Alan Jones and anti-trans campaigner Katherine Deves have been called upon by SA Liberal conservatives to help the party chart a new course.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:43 am

Anyone rocking up to my place to urge a “Yes” vote for the Voice will have the dogs set on them.

What…and pass up the opportunity for a reasoned debate?

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 10:43 am

Class switch towards non-inflammatory, spike-specific IgG4 antibodies after repeated SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination

For some reason I can’t link the paper. Of course it’s a concern for the continued use of mrna vaccines.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:45 am

Also, rosie: I’m not bothered about the Jews in camps thingy because it isn’t relevant to people who aren’t Jews in camps.

Bzzzt…Godwin’s Law.

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 10:57 am

Calli:

I’m also curious how the talk about the Voice was turned towards trannie story time. It may be that the case isn’t as strong as it should be.

Boambee John:

The talking points were too easily refuted, time to change the subject?

Monty tried to change the subject about four times yesterday. He was moderately successful each time. Leftards get a lot of practice at changing the subject when it doesn’t go their way.
The major problem was that he got into deeper water every time he did it.
It was one of those days when he should have stayed in bed.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 10:59 am

It took me four years to paint like Raphael, but a lifetime to paint like a child.

– Pablo Picasso

idiot

I’ve read another quote from Picasso that suggests he was not averse to playing up to the thirst for novelty of the art buying public of the day in order to make a lot of money. I don’t have it to hand, but along the lines of “the more abstract my paintings got, the more interest there was and the more I sold.” Also, he moved from one style to another every couple of years, which again meant he sold more paintings.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 11:01 am

Can someone with an Oz sub please post the full text of this article? We could all do with a laugh.

Fatboy, you think it’s as funny as Rudd being appointed as ambassador to our most important relationship? Possibly not as funny as it will invariably end up in ruin.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 11:03 am

The Paywallian is hardly representative but I just cannot see this being a re-run of poofta marriage.

I’m happy to be proved wrong, but I see the referendum passing on a general wave of maudlin feeling of goodwill towards the ‘oldest living culture”, weren’t citizens or allowed to vote until 1967, their “souls will be crushed if the referendum is defeated.”

The day after the referendum is passed, the demands for a treaty will commence.

Dr Faustus
Dr Faustus
January 3, 2023 11:04 am

Top Endersays:
January 2, 2023 at 11:02 am

GREG CRAVEN

The Indigenous voice has entered the slow, long death dive of Australian referendums. Unless it pulls out, it will crash and burn on polling day.

The problem is not malice, trickery or incompetence. It is the absolute refusal of the Albanese government to provide details for the voice.

In an otherwise thoughtful analysis of the Government’s problems with The Voice, Craven gets this bit quite wrong: the Government’s self-inflicted problem is certainly ‘trickery’.

It’s routine Retail Politics 101 trickery in that Albanese is trying to sell a turd sandwich to the voteherd without revealing the ingredients. And, as Craven himself points out, Albanese is also ratting out the proponents of the Voice by waving the Langton-Calma report around in public as though this is the definitive detail of what will happen on the other side of a successful referendum.

In reality there is no way on God’s green Earth that Albanese can implement the Langton-Calma Voice. The proposal would create a huge political and legal consultatory edifice that:

– puts an unelected 35-region body spearheaded by “Local and Regional Voices” directly into the policy and legislative development of the Commonwealth, State and Local governments – at any level of detail the Voices locally chooses; and then
– expects the results to somehow (because the proposal expressly rules out any role for the Voice to mediate between 35 contending opinions) be incorporated into legislation that comes before the Federal Parliament.

Implementation would require Team Albanese to herd States, Territories, and 537 LGA’s into a legally binding agreement which would render Australia ungovernable. Worse, it would trample the awesome power of the Labor Conference to formulate ALP policy from on high.

Not going to happen; but obviously that can’t be said.
So, the months ahead will be a bravura display of folkloric deception, obfuscation, mealy-mouthed political untruths, and straight lies.
Luckily, Albo is just the man for the job.

(Those interested in detail should read the Executive Summary in the linked document.)

Christine
Christine
January 3, 2023 11:05 am

Aboriginal persons only
should be doing the doorknocking

Crossie
Crossie
January 3, 2023 11:06 am

I’ve read another quote from Picasso that suggests he was not averse to playing up to the thirst for novelty of the art buying public of the day in order to make a lot of money. I don’t have it to hand, but along the lines of “the more abstract my paintings got, the more interest there was and the more I sold.” Also, he moved from one style to another every couple of years, which again meant he sold more paintings.

Roger, what you’re saying is that Picasso was a better salesman than Ken Done.

Crossie
Crossie
January 3, 2023 11:09 am

Christine says:
January 3, 2023 at 11:05 am
Aboriginal persons only
should be doing the doorknocking

And especially those that claim to have a 1/1024 of Aboriginal ancestry so we can ask them why they need special privileges.

H B Bear
H B Bear
January 3, 2023 11:10 am

Greg Craven is a pom pom waving Lefty. He can read the writing on the wall. Albo’s best hope it doesn’t take it with him. There is a reason why every PM since Howard was content to kick this can down the road.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 11:11 am

rosiesays:

January 3, 2023 at 10:17 am

Fiona Patten ……
Despite her high profile she only got 16,000 odd first preferences, the people have spoken.

Err … Because of her high profile she only got 16,000 odd first preferences, the people have spoken.
Watch her public noises carefully.
They will be a hint as to the already agreed to role for her that Dan will announce shortly.

Zipster
January 3, 2023 11:12 am

U.S is to rectify 20 years of CCP’s distortion of world economy/Apple’s new hubs: India and Vietnam
china insights
For many business owners, decoupling from China won’t be easy, but they should start preparing now because China may no longer be the world’s factory in the future. The first signs of this have become evident by the end of 2022.

Exports are one of the main drivers of China’s economic growth. Lower exports are bound to affect foreign trade and the Chinese economy.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 11:14 am

Roger, what you’re saying is that Picasso was a better salesman than Ken Done.

And a better painter 😀

I haven’t checked, but I would imagine he acquired the greatest fortune of any 20th C. artist.

Mater
January 3, 2023 11:17 am

I haven’t checked, but I would imagine he acquired the greatest fortune of any 20th C. artist.

Interesting, for a Communist.
Or is it?

johanna
johanna
January 3, 2023 11:18 am

Amazing how these Indian actresses get around.

Sloppy, gullible ‘journalism’ at work.

h/t Shy Ted at Adam’s.

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 11:25 am

Interesting, for a Communist.

Quite.

I suppose with his background one would have to declare for one side or another, and it was never going to be for Nationalism/Fascism.

I don’t think he thought much of his comrades.

Kneel
Kneel
January 3, 2023 11:33 am

“Ubuntu’ed out for the day.
Pros: -like the appearance.
– something different.
-free.
– basically works ok.
..
Cons: – it’s nerd shit.
– won’t play mp4s
– has a driver for the WI-Fi device installed, but it still only works intermittently.”

To quote Yoda: “Do, or do not – there is no try” and “Once you start down the dark path [of Windows], forever will it dominate your destiny” 🙂

For the mp4’s, I’d suggest you install VLC – if that doesn’t play them, not much will.

There is a “learning curve” for Linux, but it’s nowhere as steep as it used to be* – certainly with Ubuntu, it’s really no worse than, say, moving from Windows to Mac OS. It’s “annoyingly different”, but IMO worth it. And don’t forget that Mac OS is based on a Linux variant itself, just a customised and “simplified” one. Ubuntu is less simple, but also more “open” – you can change much that Mac OS won’t let you change.
And all the Linux’s are much more resistant to virus’ etc, so there is that.

* when I first looked, kernel version was IIRC, 0.6 or so, and I wasn’t nerdy enough to do much with it, although the build/system tools like gcc and make were great for making cross-platform builds ( SunOS on SPARC, 68k and i386) of the custom software we used in the lab. Less than 5 years later, I was using Linux as the base OS for a couple of windows VMs that ran my SOHO business IT stuff – one VM ran “mission critical” stuff, the other was “exposed” for email, web browsing etc. I kept a copy of the exposed VM and every time it “broke”, just copied the known working one back and viola, fixed.

</ nerd/geek stuff >

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 11:38 am

Fatboy, you think it’s as funny as Rudd being appointed as ambassador to our most important relationship? Possibly not as funny as it will invariably end up in ruin.

Smart move by Albo, he has effectively muzzled the Ruddster. No more tweetstorms against Murdoch, his job is to clink champagne flutes and shut up.

Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
January 3, 2023 11:38 am

It’s the World Cup Final, and a man makes his way to his seat right next to the pitch. He sits down, noticing that the seat next to him is empty. He leans over and asks his neighbour if someone will be sitting there. “No” says the neighbour “The seat is empty”. “This is incredible” said the man “Who in their right mind would have a seat like this for the Final and not use it?” The neighbour says “Well actually the seat belongs to me. I was supposed to come with my wife, but she passed away. This is the first World Cup Final we haven’t been to together since we got married”. “Oh, I’m so sorry to hear that. That’s terrible… but couldn’t you find someone else, a friend, relative or even a neighbour to take her seat?” The man shakes his head. “No” he says. “They’re all at the funeral”.

A child asked his father “How were people born?” So his father said “Adam and Eve made babies, then their babies became adults and made babies, and so on”. The child then went to his mother, asked her the same question and she told him “We were monkeys then we evolved to become like we are now”. The child ran back to his father and said “You lied to me!” His father replied “No, your mum was talking about her side of the family”.

Perfidious Albino
Perfidious Albino
January 3, 2023 11:39 am

IIRC Andrews offered the skank a job in his Government the minute she conceded. I would wager that had been pre-agreed for her earlier loyal support for his Covid police state.

Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
January 3, 2023 11:40 am

Action is the foundational key to all success.

Pablo Picasso

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 11:42 am

KANEEDDDAAAAAAAAAA

– Tetsuo

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 11:42 am

TETTTSSSUUUUUUOOOOOOOOOO

– Kaneda

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 11:43 am

Action is the foundational key to all success.

Pablo Picasso

Might want to have a plan first but…

Dr Faustus
Dr Faustus
January 3, 2023 11:43 am

Greg Craven is a pom pom waving Lefty. He can read the writing on the wall. Albo’s best hope it doesn’t take it with him. There is a reason why every PM since Howard was content to kick this can down the road.

I suspect that Albanese is betting on the development of Government Dependency Syndrome over the past 30 years (hi, John Howard).

Not only does government now give out Free Stuff on a 100% no regrets basis, the experience of past three Covid years has shown the bastards that Govern Me Harder Daddy is a politically popular strategy.

Boambee John
Boambee John
January 3, 2023 11:43 am

m0nty=fa

Smart move by Albo, he has effectively muzzled the Ruddster. No more tweetstorms against Murdoch, his job is to clink champagne flutes and shut up.

Good luck with that, KRuddy thinks that God reports to him.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 11:45 am

A belated Happy New Year to all.

Being back in the office on January 3 is unaustralian…

Roger
Roger
January 3, 2023 11:46 am

Smart move by Albo, he has effectively muzzled the Ruddster. No more tweetstorms against Murdoch, his job is to clink champagne flutes and shut up.

Mmm…yes.

A man who never saw a pie he didn’t want to stick his finger into.

3-D chess from a man (Albanese) who hasn’t mastered draughts yet.

Big_Nambas
Big_Nambas
January 3, 2023 11:48 am

What…and pass up the opportunity for a reasoned debate?

You can’t have reasoned debate with the Left.

Arky
January 3, 2023 11:49 am

Kneel says:
January 3, 2023 at 11:33 am

..
I built a PC to go in the shed (once it’s rebuilt) and thought I’d take the opportunity to try a different operating system.
I think I’ll leave the Ubuntu on it and add another drive with Pop too. I’ll keep Windows 10 on my other PCs because they already work OK with the video editing software I use that I already have licences for.
But at the same time I’ll start the process of seeing what video software is out there for Linux.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 11:49 am

Perfidious Albinosays:

January 3, 2023 at 11:39 am

IIRC Andrews offered the skank a job in his Government the minute she conceded. I would wager that had been pre-agreed for her earlier loyal support for his Covid police state.

I don’t think he offered her a job, per se, but made some comment about it “being a pity if her considerable skills were lost to Government” or somesuch.
Wink, nudge.
And yes, a done deal when she ticked off the Covid powers. Will the Libs refer any job offer to IBAC to establish if it was given for political favours?
Yeah, nah.

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 11:51 am

Senator representing the parasite territory of caberrahhhh is against anything that will slow the wads of other peoples munni flowing to them.

David Pocock wants stage-three tax cuts revisited in light of shrinking workforce
ACT senator suggests ageing population with proportion of taxpayers declining means situation has ‘changed significantly’ since cuts legislated in 2019

The bald headed flog is a perfect representative of the swill “state”.

Dr Faustus
Dr Faustus
January 3, 2023 11:51 am

Smart move by Albo, he has effectively muzzled the Ruddster. No more tweetstorms against Murdoch, his job is to clink champagne flutes and shut up.

That’s his job description.
Unlikely to be his mission: Rudd knows the World needs On-the-Spot Guidance like fish need water.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 11:53 am

Hmmm 98% chance of a 7-point quake hitting California in next day or two:

http://www.quakeprediction.com/Los%20Angeles%20Earthquake%20Forecast.html

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 11:54 am

…it is anticipated that the quake forecast to hit California could result in $10 billion dollars worth of improvements.

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 11:58 am

Can you predict earthquakes?

No. Neither the USGS nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. We do not know how, and we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. USGS scientists can only calculate the probability that a significant earthquake will occur (shown on our hazard mapping) in a specific area within a certain number of years.

Bruce of Newcastle
Bruce of Newcastle
January 3, 2023 11:58 am

KRuddy thinks that God reports to him.

At least he isn’t ambassador to Beijing.
2023 is going to be bad enough as it is.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 12:08 pm

Smart move by Albo, he has effectively muzzled the Ruddster.

Lol. No he hasn’t. Rudd is an out of control loon told to us by countless liar party members.

He’ll single handedly ruin our most important relationship. It’s actually very concerning.

JMH
JMH
January 3, 2023 12:10 pm

Perfidious Albinosays:
January 3, 2023 at 11:39 am

IIRC Andrews offered the skank a job in his Government the minute she conceded. I would wager that had been pre-agreed for her earlier loyal support for his Covid police state.

I think you are correct PA. I am really grateful Adem beat the thing. Two great results from the Victorian State Election:- Both Meddick and Patten no longer a visible irritation.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 12:13 pm

Indeed. I think having someone who has been described by many as a psychopath and sociopath is very concerning. Particularly given his Chinese business interests as well.

10% for the big guy?

Real Deal
Real Deal
January 3, 2023 12:14 pm

KD at 6.55am

Right. Properly sorted out.

On longish trips, one requires the ability to fart with confidence.

I hope you’ve got the travelling ablutions worked out for the cabin. Reverse hinge on the seat, serviceable hole in floor of chassis. Just so you don’t need to stop at a service centre.

2

Big_Nambas
Big_Nambas
January 3, 2023 12:22 pm

Oh Rosie;

The complaint for global crimes against humanity, filed and accepted by the Superior Court of Justice of Canada (see link below), has begun. A team of more than 1,000 lawyers and more than 10,000 medical experts, led by Germany’s Reiner Fuellmich, one of Europe’s most powerful lawyers, has launched the biggest complaint in history called “Nuremberg 2”. against the WHO (World Health Organization) and the Davos Group (World Economic Forum headed by Klaus Schwab, aged over 80) for crimes against humanity.

Dr. Reiner Fuellmich is a German-American lawyer who has won multi-million dollar lawsuits against the Deutsche Bank scam and the one against Volkswagen for the Dieselgate scam. He is one of the founders of the “German Crown Inquiry Commission”. Fuellmich and his team have collected thousands of scientific evidences demonstrating the complete unreliability of PCR tests and the fraud behind them. Fuellmich then spoke of vaccines and noted that “they have nothing to do with vaccines, but are part of genetic experiments”. In addition to faulty tests and fraudulent death certificates issued by corrupt medical personnel, the “experimental” vaccine itself violates Article 32 of the Geneva Convention.

According to Article 32 of the Fourth Convention of 1949, “mutilation and medical or scientific experimentation which is not necessary for the medical treatment of a person” is prohibited. According to article 147, carrying out biological experiments on human beings constitutes a serious violation of the Convention. The “experimental” vaccine violates the 10 Nuremberg codes, which provide for the death penalty for those who break these international treaties.” Fuellmich also added that this was all long planned to be implemented in 2050. “But then” , the strings have become greedy and have decided to anticipate the plans first in 2030 and finally in 2020 in this rush that they make so many mistakes.

For example, the vaccine manufacturers had not anticipated that there would be so many side effects and deaths.” “Europe,” continues Fuellmich, “which is the main battleground in this war. This is because she is completely bankrupt. The pension funds have been completely plundered. That’s why they want to take over Europe before people know about it. What is happening “.

But who are these people pulling the strings? According to Fuellmich, this is a group of about 3,000 super-rich. The Davos clique around Klaus Schwab is part of this group. What do they want?

Total control over the human being. They bribe doctors, hospital staff and politicians. “People who don’t cooperate are threatened. They use all kinds of psychological techniques to manipulate people.”

“The mainstream media,” Fuellmich summarizes, “tells a false reality and says that the majority of people are in favor of measures and vaccines. That is certainly not true.

For example, almost everyone I talk to in Germany knows that a mask does not protect against anything, because in the meantime almost everyone is informed by the alternative media. The old media are dying.”

Fuellmich’s advice?

“Spread the truth and the facts as widely as possible.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 12:28 pm

I hope you’ve got the travelling ablutions worked out for the cabin. Reverse hinge on the seat, serviceable hole in floor of chassis. Just so you don’t need to stop at a service centre.

Even better if you can retain the discharge on-board and dump it at the next truck stop. Preferably about two metres inside the front right corner of the semi parking bays.

Kneel
Kneel
January 3, 2023 12:33 pm

“Want to update a driver?
Download four different programs and follow instructions that although appearing to be in English, you just know there is some kind of smug insider incomprehensible thing going on here.
Are you shitting me?”

You should be able to avoid this if you use the Software Updater – you may need to reboot after it runs (if it says so, do it).
If it’s not in the official Ubuntu repositories yet, then it may indeed require along the lines as you say – but in Windows, if it’s not officially sanctioned in their updates, it’s no better.

Here’s a Windows “OMFG!” moment that demonstrates the point:

If you have a Kindle, you can (USB) plug it into Windows 7 and depending on what option you select from the Kindle screen, it appears as various “devices”, but they all work.
If you plug the same Kindle into Windows 10, at least one of those options doesn’t work – you need to download drivers and instructions, and follow the instructions to make it work.
No joke.
Known issue for at least 18 months (probably longer) and counting…
Really handy for all those Kindle owners who “took advantage” of a “free” upgrade to Windows 10.

Technical stuff (“here be dragons!”):

In Windows versions up to 7 (and maybe even 8), it sees the USB device ID as an “RNDIS/Ethernet Gadget”, and will even automatically download and install the required drivers correctly. But the same USB device ID in Windows 10 is said to be a “Serial port”, even after you manually force a “find updated drivers”.
How they managed to break this and keep it broken with driver updates is beyond my meager ability to understand – perhaps it is part of the “Q: How many MS support engineers does it take to change a light bulb? A: Have you tried the dark upgrade?” style end-user support system MS appears to use.

JMH
JMH
January 3, 2023 12:33 pm

Thanks Big_Nambas for the update on Nuremberg 2 and, thankfully, I note Fuellmich is still alive.

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 12:33 pm

I hope you’ve got the travelling ablutions worked out for the cabin. Reverse hinge on the seat, serviceable hole in floor of chassis. Just so you don’t need to stop at a service centre.

The only questions left.

Vindaloo for texture or Korma for ease of passage?

lotocoti
lotocoti
January 3, 2023 12:34 pm

Sacre bleu.
Live crosses are always a bit dodgy.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 12:39 pm

Crime
Courts & Justice
Traffic
WA News
Police pull over P-plate driver they say was speeding with unrestrained child in car near Southern Cross
The West Australian
Tue, 3 January 2023 9:22AM

A P-plate driver will likely be stripped of their licence after allegedly being caught speeding at 145km/h with an unrestrained child in the car.

In a post on social media, the Wheatbelt Police District revealed officers had allegedly caught the driver speeding at 35km/h over the speed limit in a 110km/h zone near Southern Cross.

“Bad afternoon for a Perth P-plater in Southern Cross district,” the post said.

“145km in a 110km zone.

“Unrestrained child = 20 demerits and $1350 fine.”

JMH
JMH
January 3, 2023 12:43 pm

Absolutely spiffing day here. Nice and cool with southerly winds. Plenty to do outside. I’m just in for lunch.

I thought you would all like to know that! 🙂

Kneel
Kneel
January 3, 2023 12:44 pm

Arky: “But at the same time I’ll start the process of seeing what video software is out there for Linux.”

I use “Handbrake” (in the Ubuntu repos) for transcoding, but haven’t tried editing with it, although it certainly appears to be capable of it.

Arky
January 3, 2023 12:44 pm

Kneel says:
January 3, 2023 at 12:33 pm

.
It’s just amazing to me that they have produced free software as good as these Linux ones.
Most people just probably aren’t going to explore it all unless they have some old PC to refurbish on a budget.

rosie
rosie
January 3, 2023 12:57 pm

reiner fuellmich

?
Surely you’re having a lend.
How did those 4th July 2021 international criminal court ‘Nurnberg Trials’ go?
Or the PCR pandemic?

DrBeauGan
DrBeauGan
January 3, 2023 1:04 pm

It’s just amazing to me that they have produced free software as good as these Linux ones.
Most people just probably aren’t going to explore it all unless they have some old PC to refurbish on a budget.

Arky, most ppl don’t know what an operating system is.

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 1:04 pm

Just re-read the guns of August.

Spoiler: It doesnt end happily.

One bit that struck me though was the number of senior officers the French churned through in that 2 month period.
Compared to the failed wars of Afghanistan where the same command team seemed to be making the decisions and following the same losing strategy with fairly high continuity.
It seems a reluctance to remove ineffective commanders (probably to avoid politicians looking bad) or those couldnt grasp he type of war they were fighting.

Johnny Rotten
Johnny Rotten
January 3, 2023 1:04 pm

2022 US Inflation is Final – 32% for the year

From Armstrong Economics –

“Our Independent Inflation model has calculated that the combined rate for everything from food to transportation came in at 32% for 2022. That is a far cry from the official number. This is simply calculated by Socrates from an unbiased perspective. Thank you, COVID & the Russian Sanctions. What a new wonderful world the Biden Administration has created.”

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/2022-inflation-is-final-32-for-the-year/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=RSS

rickw
rickw
January 3, 2023 1:04 pm

The “experimental” vaccine violates the 10 Nuremberg codes, which provide for the death penalty for those who break these international treaties

Nice, pretty keen on the death penalty at the moment!

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:07 pm

FM – I’ve always wanted to read that but I presumed (?) it was about how technology had changed and neither side realised… but were continuing to use antiquated strategies…???

rickw
rickw
January 3, 2023 1:10 pm

At least he isn’t ambassador to Beijing. 2023 is going to be bad enough as it is.

If anyone could get a full bottle nuclear exchange started, the Kruddster could.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:13 pm

Ratzinger, book excerpt from 1969:

She (the Church) will no longer be able to inhabit many of the edifices she built in prosperity. As the number of her adherents diminishes . . . she will lose many of her social privileges. . . As a small society, [the Church] will make much bigger demands on the initiative of her individual members….

It will be hard-going for the Church, for the process of crystallization and clarification will cost her much valuable energy. It will make her poor and cause her to become the Church of the meek . . . The process will be long and wearisome as was the road from the false progressivism on the eve of the French Revolution — when a bishop might be thought smart if he made fun of dogmas and even insinuated that the existence of God was by no means certain . . . But when the trial of this sifting is past, a great power will flow from a more spiritualized and simplified Church.

Men in a totally planned world will find themselves unspeakably lonely. If they have completely lost sight of God, they will feel the whole horror of their poverty. Then they will discover the little flock of believers as something wholly new. They will discover it as a hope that is meant for them, an answer for which they have always been searching in secret.

And so it seems certain to me that the Church is facing very hard times. The real crisis has scarcely begun. We will have to count on terrific upheavals. But I am equally certain about what will remain at the end: not the Church of the political cult, which is dead already, but the Church of faith. She may well no longer be the dominant social power to the extent that she was until recently; but she will enjoy a fresh blossoming and be seen as man’s home, where he will find life and hope beyond death.

Jorge
Jorge
January 3, 2023 1:14 pm

Breaking: American football live now. Player down and receiving CPR and may have passed away on field. Other players in tears and likely game will be canceled.

rickw
rickw
January 3, 2023 1:14 pm

Just like old times!

I wore out the treads on a new pair of redwing boots, I fixed them over the break by gluing 1/2” by 1” Bunnings rubber mat chunks onto the sole with some very nasty gorilla glue.

Let’s see how it holds up!

rickw
rickw
January 3, 2023 1:16 pm

Breaking: American football live now. Player down and receiving CPR and may have passed away on field. Other players in tears and likely game will be canceled.

Paging rosie! Urgent page for rosie!

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 1:24 pm

Lysandersays:
January 3, 2023 at 1:07 pm

Not really.
It covers the German initial plans to destroy the French army (make the right wing strong as possible and the centre and left just to play a holding battle) via the sweep through Belgium.
Bit of political stuff as well as a bit of dwelling on the French armies insane “plan 17” (to sum up- attack everywhere, at once, all the time – to the extent they werent even issued entrenching tools)
The Russians genuine heroics in attacking into Prussia way ahead of any timetable foreseen by the Germans which ended in absolute disaster, but may have drawn away just enough troops from the Western front to ensure the Germans couldnt obtain victory as they panicked and sent some units East.
The Poms being terrible turds and being largely concerned with keeping the army they did send intact, rather than joint operations – until the battle of the Marne.

And it all ends on the depressingly accurate note that both sides original plans failure to succeed just locked in 4 years of awful slaughter.
1 in 28 Frenchmen dead. 1 in 32 Germans, 1 in 57 for the Poms and 1 in 107 for the Russians.

Worth a read.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:24 pm

Breaking: American football live now. Player down and receiving CPR and may have passed away on field. Other players in tears and likely game will be canceled.

Demar Hamlin. He took a hit just before collapsing but IMHO it wasn’t that hard a hit…

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 1:25 pm

Head case:

No doubt about that, if the Father was white, because of a much larger head size compared to Aborigines.
There were good reasons for laws forbidding Whites from procreating with Aborigines but the do gooders just laughed.

First I’ve heard that particular detail.
Care to give us a link to an authoritative site?*
*Grand nana is not an authoritative source for what appears to be bullshit to stir up the gullibles.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:27 pm

Thanks FM… tis another book I need to add to the list (I am currently traversing The Brothers Karamazov so, depressing seems to be the theme of the month! :P)

Boambee John
Boambee John
January 3, 2023 1:33 pm

thefrollickingmolesays:
January 3, 2023 at 1:04 pm
Just re-read the guns of August.

Spoiler: It doesnt end happily.

One bit that struck me though was the number of senior officers the French churned through in that 2 month period.

But they kept Joffre on for another two years.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:34 pm

24yo NFL player has a pulse and has been taken to hospital… though he was not breathing “on his own.”

Pretty terrible scene.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:36 pm

Like most stocks, some things will go up (by more or less) and some thing will go down (by more or less) but not a great start to ASX for 2023:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/big-losses-asx-1st-session-014304970.html

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 1:37 pm

Taking a helmet to the chest isn’t good for anyone regardless of pads.
The force with which these offensive players run the ball is explosive.
Raising the vaccine issue at this time is really premature.

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 1:37 pm

Joffre was a strange beast.

Up until the battle of the Marne he was crap.
Then he got the big decisions right.

Just how insane was French doctrine??

Attaque à outrance (French: Attack to excess) was the expression of a military philosophy common to many armies in the period before and during the earlier parts of World War I.

This philosophy was a response to the increasing weight of defensive firepower that accrued to armies in the nineteenth century, as a result of several technological innovations, notably breech-loading rifled guns, machine guns, and light field artillery firing high-explosive shells. It held that the victor would be the side with the strongest will, courage, and dash/energy (élan), and that every attack must therefore be pushed to the limit.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:42 pm

Bern
I don’t attribute his collapse to the vax as that certainly would be premature!!!

I have seen plenty of hard hits but I don’t recall CPR on the field.

Having said that, sometimes life deals you shitty angles. I think of Phil Hughes; if that cricket ball had been one inch higher or lower, he’d likely be alive and well today…

If Phil Hughes collapsed today, all the shills would be out claiming the jibby jab…!!!

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 1:42 pm

If anyone could get a full bottle nuclear exchange started, the Kruddster could.

Lol and by the Americans against us too. 🙂

calli
calli
January 3, 2023 1:42 pm

I think so bern. Had a look at the footage. It didn’t look like a hard hit, but straight to the chest, and possibly the chin.

People are so antsy these days they’ll claim anything, imagine anything. The low trust result of long term gaslighting.

Boambee John
Boambee John
January 3, 2023 1:43 pm

The early French attacks were mainly in the south=east, towards the upper Rhine. They lost up to 250,000 dead in the last months of 1914, a high proportion in those attacks.

Jorge
Jorge
January 3, 2023 1:43 pm

It’s pretty rare, bern. Never before in my limited exp. They go hard but they’re fit as.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:45 pm

And as somewhat of a retrospective disclaimer… I do think the jibby jab has caused more adverse reactions than what is reported. To what extent, though, I have no idea.

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 1:46 pm

Didja hear how 100+ Russians all died from sudden heart failure in Ukraine today, musta been the jab I tells ya.

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 1:46 pm

Arkysays:
January 2, 2023 at 10:44 pm

Ubuntu’ed out for the day.

If the Chinese were to copy Windows XP and pirate a few drivers, then sell it as a $20 OS, Bill Gates would be broke in a month. Block out any links to Google and he’d be broke in a fortnight.
Just sell a boot disk with a link to their site back in the Middle Kingdom, and Old Bill would cut his wrists in 24 hours.
(NADT)

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 1:48 pm

Different kind of contact, but this one hit on Antonio Brown wrecked his life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8iFSP_S5h8

The NFL players are gladiators.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 1:48 pm

The curtain is opening up to a very steady, easing going 23.

Ukrainian rocket strike kills 63 Russian troops!
One of Kremlin’s biggest losses of life in war; Fury…
Moscow plans prolonged drone revenge…
Prigozhin next leader? ‘Worse than Putin’…

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 1:50 pm

Matrix Transform:

Bob wanted to be free from MicroTheft … I was only trying to help

And I appreciate the help. It’s just that it failed at the second, third and fourth hurdle.
Excuse me while I reload MS DOS.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 1:50 pm

The helicopter prang on the Gold Coast.
Any thoughts?
(If only this site had access to an Aviation Expert).

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 1:51 pm

The NFL players are gladiators.

Who’s your team?

The Simulation must be having a lend. The name of the old owner of the NY Giants (think he sold out) is Woody Johnson. No male porn star ever came up with that combo, but the simulation did. 🙂

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:51 pm

Just out of pure morbid interest…

Charles Frederick Hughes (March 2, 1943 – October 24, 1971) was an American football player, a wide receiver in the National Football League from 1967 to 1971. He is, to date, the only NFL player to die on the field during a game.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 1:51 pm

Any thoughts?

The angle of attack.

rickw
rickw
January 3, 2023 1:53 pm

Good to see nothing’s changed here. Low loader cruises past with 30T excavator on it, not chained down, after having driven past the front of the terminal.

I pointed out to the engineer that having the excavator slip off and squash 20 tourists would probably be bad day!

Saw this happen on the road out of Jackson’s airport in PNG, dewy morning and excessive road camber just near the welcome to POM sign. Excavator on side in the table drain. Driver and co pilot parked further down the road rivet to their seats with a 1000 yard stare: “I guess we just got fired?” “Yep!”.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 1:53 pm

On Kruddster.
Yes, he will be bound not to make direct public statements without approval from Canbra.
But be prepared for an avalanche of “highly placed diplomatic sources” and “a senior embassy official familiar with the issue” stories.

bespoke
bespoke
January 3, 2023 1:54 pm

Cassie of Sydneysays:
January 3, 2023 at 8:39 am
Interesting…

NSW Liberal Democrats at impasse as feud deepens

They sound like fragile egotist looking for a safe space.

Good thing Lathem didn’t join.

Farmer Gez
Farmer Gez
January 3, 2023 1:54 pm

It’s the jab wot did it for sure.
I can say that with as much confidence as ATAGI declaring it’s safe and necessary to vaccinate children.

Figures
Figures
January 3, 2023 1:55 pm

Vaccines are administered in such an insidious and unnatural fashion that there is no way to know how they affect any one person. They are of course supposed toelicit a permanent physiological reaction (which they do even though the reaction is not what immunologists think it is) but people are so entranced by them they make up bizarre rationalisations that they can’t possibly cause long term injury.

The point is that excess deaths are telling a horrific story but for most people who die there will always be a chance to say “well not him!”

I can’t believe people are still getting boosters.

Rosie’s not a commie so I really wish she would stop.

Monty: you should keep getting them.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 1:55 pm

Mara owns 50% of the Giants now JC.
I used to follow them but I’ve just followed players, like Tom Brady for the last 10 years.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 1:55 pm

JCsays:

January 3, 2023 at 1:51 pm

Any thoughts?

The angle of attack.

You’re guessing.
The first thing the tin-kickers will look for is vaccination certificates.

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 1:55 pm

Doc Beaugan:

It will be interesting to see if this accomplishes its obvious goal of destroying the morale of the US armed forces.

I’m not sure, but there was a novel about ten years ago where all the freaks who hadn’t gained the confidence of their unit members were just tied and left for the enemy with a descriptor tied to their shirts. It had something to do with the Gulf war, but damned if I can remember the name.

GreyRanga
GreyRanga
January 3, 2023 1:56 pm

Lysander trading in January is fraught with danger as every budding billionaire to be is buying the latest thing they heard of from their pissed relative. October is much the same with reporting season. A week before the share price accounts for expected dividends but not lower than expected results.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 1:57 pm

Sancho Panzer says:
January 3, 2023 at 1:53 pm

On Kruddster.
Yes, he will be bound not to make direct public statements without approval from Canbra.

Imagine how often the loon would be contacting the Albanian to offer advice. Not that I can or do, but I actually could feel sorry for the Albanian for having to have put himself through this torture. It will be torture unless he blocks him.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 1:59 pm

I was checking the ATSB Sancho but there’s nothing up there yet on QLD heli accident. It was obviously the jab wot did it. 😛

anyway, while I was there I noted this incident:

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) is investigating an incident involving an air traffic controller who appeared to have fallen asleep at a control console in the Air Traffic Services Centre (ATSC), Brisbane on 9 December 2022.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 1:59 pm

Speaking of the choppers colliding.
Watching a channel nine clip on YouTube they said they weren’t going to show the moment of impact.
Click, click, you could see it everywhere.
I wonder if it’s a ACMA rule.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 2:00 pm

LOL Ranga!!! That’s hilariously funny and very likely true!!! 😛

Speedbox
January 3, 2023 2:00 pm

JC says:
January 3, 2023 at 1:48 pm
The curtain is opening up to a very steady, easing going 23.
Prigozhin next leader? ‘Worse than Putin’…

ASX down 111.5 points (1.50%) at the moment. Not the start we had been hoping for. 🙁

As for Prigozhin, should he assume (more) power that would confirm Putin was actually a ‘moderate’.

Frank
Frank
January 3, 2023 2:02 pm

He’s completely normal for his “ideological side”. He and his ideological side can’t even, won’t even, condemn the overt sexualisation of children.

Arguing for drag queen story hour for toddlers is small beer compared to arguing on behalf of signing them up to Grindr.

GreyRanga
GreyRanga
January 3, 2023 2:03 pm

JC is that simulated NFL or simulated pron. Both are about as interesting as Fantasy Football.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 2:03 pm

Watching the hit, the offensive player lowers his helmet & drives into the defensive player with that last stride.
Totally legal.
Defensive player got caught in a shitty position.

As mentioned above, like Phil Hughes.

areff
areff
January 3, 2023 2:05 pm

No male porn star ever came up with that combo

The best slogan the NBA never used: “Marvel at our Johnsons”

There were, and still are, a lot of Johnsons aiming for the hoop.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 2:05 pm

Thanks Speedbox.

I have no real idea about about the “Kremliners”. I just posted a few headers amused how 23 is starting out. No different to 22. I think it’s going to be a shit of a year. But it’s just a hunch.

Lysander
Lysander
January 3, 2023 2:06 pm

Some light reading from 2009 before getting on a plane…

AN EMIRATES jet carrying 257 passengers nearly crashed while taking off from Melbourne Airport after its weight had been miscalculated by 100 tonnes.

The Airbus A340-500 scraped its tail along the tarmac and grassland beyond the runway at Tullamarine on March 20, then hit airport landing lights and disabled a radio antenna before taking off.

Apparently the captain forgot to carry the one in his calculations. The ATSB photos and diagrams are quite scary; showing skid marks into the grass and that the plane went below “ground level” for a moment into Brimbank Park before having enough speed to climb…

Zipster
January 3, 2023 2:06 pm

The helicopter prang on the Gold Coast.
Any thoughts?

neither pilot paying attention to location of the other aircraft

Farmer Gez
Farmer Gez
January 3, 2023 2:07 pm

A mate’s been vaccinated four times because he has bad chest reactions to the usual flu. He feels like shit and has been this way all last year. His partner had the same regime and feels listless most days.

The neighbours wife can’t get out of bed for more than a few hours each day and has all the tests you could poke a stick at. She’s only in her forties with two teenage kids. I spoke to her a few months ago about the shitness of the vaccines and she expressed surprise that I had such a negative attitude to the 100% certified medicine show elixir.
She’s a lovely girl and I hope she back on her feet soon.

Kneel
Kneel
January 3, 2023 2:08 pm

“The best slogan the NBA never used: “Marvel at our Johnsons””

Almost as good as the Dicken’s Cider ad: “My girlfriend love my Dicken’s Cider!”

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 2:09 pm

Good to see nothing’s changed here. Low loader cruises past with 30T excavator on it, not chained down,

I occasionally see a load which is obviously heavy, and will have yuuuge momentum forces in a bend at 100 kmh.
Now, I am sure those tie-down straps are as good as chains.
But I never pass him on the outside of a bend on a dual carriageway.

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 2:10 pm

Salvatore:

You don’t think being credibly called a pathological liar is enough punishment for JC for the one night?
That he’s a blowhard goes without saying. Why pick on the poor sad sack while he’s down?

Because he does it repeatedly to others?
Because he constantly drags up shit from the past which he thinks people don’t remember?
No.
It’s just because he’s a malevolent jerk who delights in causing fights – unless he’s in the same room/punching distance of the people he insults. Then he’s a gentleman, as others have described him from a previous Cat meetup.
He’s just a coward. And a very nasty one at that.

calli
calli
January 3, 2023 2:10 pm

Any thoughts?

Momentary distraction.

Vicki
Vicki
January 3, 2023 2:13 pm

I have noticed that Alan Jones has put the contents of his Fitzroy home to auction with Lawsons. I know that he has had spinal surgery once again in 2022. Anyone know anything further?

There are those who love him, and those who hate him. But he was always fearless in exposing political hypocrites and other mendacity.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 2:13 pm

Lord, where’s the iodine.

m0nty
m0nty
January 3, 2023 2:14 pm

There are those who love him, and those who hate him.

The family of the kid involved in the incident at Kings that got Jones sacked probably don’t belong to the former category.

GreyRanga
GreyRanga
January 3, 2023 2:17 pm

I was serious, sheila I used to know regularly lost 30k around January for a few years. Woke as they come. Liars party aficionado in Sussex Street. Husband put a stop to it. It was a joy to behold. A bloke lost a quarter mil on the sayso of his receptionist wife in a start-up. Kept putting in good after bad money. I belonged to a small group of traders following the market.

Speedbox
January 3, 2023 2:17 pm

JC says:
January 3, 2023 at 2:05 pm

Yes. Things might change of course but overall, the current financial pointers for 2023 are not promising at all. On the plus side, this does represent opportunities for portfolio consolidating and strengthening.

I remain the eternal optimist about the bourse. Sooner or later, the pain will be worthwhile. 🙂 Accumulate, accumulate, accumulate.

DrBeauGan
DrBeauGan
January 3, 2023 2:19 pm

I’m not sure, but there was a novel about ten years ago where all the freaks who hadn’t gained the confidence of their unit members were just tied and left for the enemy with a descriptor tied to their shirts. It had something to do with the Gulf war, but damned if I can remember the name.

That’s my preferred outcome. We’ll see.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 2:20 pm

Lysander.
That incident caused Runnybum (who has obviously died of Covid) to dub me Biggles.
The point was, this wasn’t about flying as such.
The Maximum Take Off Weight (MTOW) of an A340-500 is 380 tonnes. This was a long haul flight to the Middle East, so you would expect that it would have been close to MTOW. A crew who was tuned in would have straight away said “Wut!?! 275 tonnes? That’s bullshit. Let’s work that out again.”
So they simply set take off power for the lower weight and, surprise, surprise, the take off roll was a tad sluggish.
You’re right.
They came within a few feet of a catastrophic prang.
Any person familiar with the key parameters of their job should spot a 25% – 30% error intuitively.
Truckdriver, pilot, header operator, whatever.

Dot
Dot
January 3, 2023 2:21 pm

Good thing Lathem didn’t join.

He did and he left on good terms. He was true to his principles and he is doing good work.

Zipster
January 3, 2023 2:22 pm

Estimate: China COVID Infections Could Hit 600 Million; US Weighs Airline Wastewater Testing

00:54 Estimate: China Infections Could Hit 600 Million
02:00 U.S. Weighs Airline Wastewater Testing as COVID-19 Surges in China
04:22 Body Bags, Urns, Wreathes Sold Out: Factory Owner
05:41 Hospital Staff: Many Patients Getting Reinfected
06:31 Returnees Scuffle with Police at China Airport
07:23 Taiwan Offers Help to China Amid COVID-19 Surge
09:02 Chinese Jet Within 20 Feet of U.S. Military Aircraft
10:50 N. Korean Leader Promises Larger Nuclear Arsenal
12:07 South Korea, U.S. Discuss Nuclear Exercises: Yoon
13:13 NBA Draws Backlash Over Ties with CCP

Bar Beach Swimmer
January 3, 2023 2:23 pm

JMH @ 12:43

Sorry, you can’t outdo the weather right here today, JMH.

Both the sky and the water were blue and clear; just the right waves and the slightest of a sea breeze this morning. While, off the coast, 7-8 beautiful coal ships waiting to sail into port! Pure magic.

Dot
Dot
January 3, 2023 2:24 pm

Those College Bowl games were good yesterday.

A shame Big M didn’t get up.

Vicki
Vicki
January 3, 2023 2:24 pm

A mate’s been vaccinated four times because he has bad chest reactions to the usual flu. He feels like shit and has been this way all last year. His partner had the same regime and feels listless most days.

Yes Gez, it breaks your heart when you come across such situations. But when they have never considered the possibility that a monumental medical catastrophe has occurred, it is well nigh impossible to even bring up the possibility.

There is still at least one (perhaps more) person in my city social circle who thinks I am some sort of potential “super spreader” because I remain unvaccinated. She must have a conviction that I am some sort of “Typhoid Mary” who harbours the dreaded virus but shows no symptoms.

I don’t think these people will concede anything until the government releases a united “mea culpa” & releases the actual data, and further reveals that VAERS flaws (& deliberate concealment and/or official instructions in GP practices) that prevented accurate recording of adverse events.

bespoke
bespoke
January 3, 2023 2:25 pm

Cheers, Dot.

What do you think of the bickering?

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 2:25 pm

Just re-read the guns of August.

The Zimmerman Telegram is next on my re – read list.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 2:26 pm

Speedbox.

I don’t disagree with your summation. The world seems to be getting along with most of the dislocations. I suspect the overly forecasted US recession won’t be big and if it looks like holding around consensus then there could be a big upswing in the US markets. Also, Europe could also surprise maybe. The thing I worry about is international politics..

I’ll put up a long wonky piece from someone who’s developed a following on Wall Street. It’s a little sobering but possibly also close to the make possibly. At the very least , it’s interesting.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 2:27 pm

Those College Bowl games were good yesterday.

Ohio State offensive line was the first team this year to neutralise the Georgia monster.
Tulane beating USC today was awesome.

Sancho Panzer
Sancho Panzer
January 3, 2023 2:28 pm

callisays:

January 3, 2023 at 2:10 pm

Any thoughts?

Momentary distraction.

Routine, repetitive flights, with pressure to load and unload quickly and get the next batch in the air.
In fact, I wondered if the benign conditions played a part. If winds were stronger, departing and arriving helicopters would each be flying into the wind on departure and landing. If winds were light and flukey, maybe there was less adherence to a standard arrival and departure direction.
But just guessing.
Every vehicle has blindspots.

Robert Sewell
January 3, 2023 2:31 pm

No sympathy for Germany. If you don’t stand up to the politicians who betray your nation, you deserve everything you get.

Big_Nambas
Big_Nambas
January 3, 2023 2:31 pm

Shirley you are taking a lend;

Before the pandemic, Fuellmich, who runs his own law firm in Göttingen, central Germany, and also lives and works part-time in the US, was best known for his involvement in high-profile corporate fraud cases against companies including Deutsche Bank and Volkswagen.

But last year, as the pandemic swept the world, drawing vast numbers of people down conspiracy-theory rabbit holes, his career took a surprising turn. In July 2020 Fuellmich launched himself as a vlogger and founded the corona ausschuss – roughly translated as “corona committee” – to investigate “crimes against humanity” committed by governments and corporations regarding COVID-19.

The committee’s “findings”, which are broadcast weekly on his website in multi-hour-long sessions, read like a glossary of every COVID conspiracy going. Hosted by Fuellmich and three other lawyers, it comes across as an official-looking enquiry – similar to what a government might set up after a national disaster.

Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
Zulu Kilo Two Alpha
January 3, 2023 2:32 pm

1 in 28 Frenchmen dead. 1 in 32 Germans, 1 in 57 for the Poms and 1 in 107 for the Russians.

France had the highest casualty rate of the victorious powers – over 70% of all soldiers mobilized were casualties. Might explain why they weren’t too keen on a re – run in 1940.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 2:33 pm

Part 1

“Zolten”
War encumbers commodities.
A recurring theme in my dispatches this year has been that in a moment when the world is going from unipolar to multipolar, the actions of heads of state are far more important than the actions of central banks. That is because heads of state lead, their actions affect inflation, and central banks merely follow by hiking rates to “clean up”. Central banks will be behind the curve in this game, and if investors read only the speeches of central bankers but not statesmen, they will be even more behind the curve. The multipolar world order is being built not by G7 heads of state but by the “G7 of the East” (the BRICS heads of state), which is a G5 really but because of “BRICSpansion”, I took the liberty to round up.
The special relationship between China and Russia has a financial agenda to it, and what President Xi and President Putin say about the future of money – that is, the future they envision – matters for the future of the U.S. dollar and liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market. Their actions are forging something new: Bretton Woods III is slowly taking shape, and in light of developments to date, my motto for Bretton Woods III – “our commodity, your problem” – remains apt.
President Xi’s visit with Saudi and GCC leaders marks the birth of the petroyuan and a leap in China’s growing encumbrance of OPEC+’s oil and gas reserves: with the China-GCC Summit, China can claim to have built a “special relationship” not only with the “+” sign in OPEC+ (Russia), but with Iran and all of OPEC+…
President Xi’s visit was the very first China-Arab States Summit in history, and echoes FDR’s meeting with King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud on Valentine’s Day 1945 aboard an American cruiser, the USS Quincy. Fixed income investors should care – not just because the invoicing of oil in renminbi will hurt the dollar’s might, but also because commodity encumbrance means more inflation for the West.
Here are the key parts from President Xi’s speech at the China-GCC Summit (all emphasis with orange underlines are mine): “In the next three to five years, China is ready to work with GCC countries in the following priority areas: first, setting up a new paradigm of all-dimensional energy cooperation, where China will continue to import large quantities of crude oil on a long-term basis from GCC countries, and purchase more LNG. We will strengthen our cooperation in the upstream sector, engineering services, as well as [downstream] storage, transportation, and refinery. The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange platform will be fully utilized for RMB settlement in oil and gas trade, […] and we could start currency swap cooperation and advance the m-CBDC Bridge project”.

War and Commodity Encumbrance 2
Let’s dissect President Xi’s comments bit by bit, and color them with other
pieces of information as we go along. First, what is the “duration” of this theme?
It’s pretty short: in the words of President Xi, “the next three to five years”.
In market terms, that means that five-year forward five-year inflation breakevens
should be discounting a world in which oil and gas is invoiced not only in dollars
but also renminbi, and in which some oil and gas is not available for the West
at low prices (and in dollars) because they have been encumbered by the East.
But it does not appear that breakeven expectations reflect anything like that…
My sense is that the market is starting to realize that the world is going from
unipolar to multipolar politically, but the market has yet to make the leap that
in the emerging multipolar world order, cross-currency bases will be smaller,
commodity bases will be greater, and inflation rates in the West will be higher…
Inflation traders should be paranoid, not complacent. As Andy Grove said,
“only the paranoid survive”, but when I asked a small group of inflation traders
over dinner in London this summer about how the market (they) comes up with
five-year forward five-year breakevens, I did not sense any degree of paranoia
in their answer: “there is no top-down or bottom-up work that we do to come
up with our estimates; we take central banks’ inflation targets as a given and
the rest is liquidity”. Inflation breakevens do not seem to price any geopolitical risk.
Second, “paradigm” in “a new paradigm of all-dimensional energy cooperation”
is a symbolic word. The meeting between FDR and King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud
was a new paradigm too: the U.S.’s security guarantees for the kingdom for
access to affordable oil supplies. Over time, the paradigm boiled down to this:
the U.S. imported oil and paid for it with U.S. dollars, which Saudi Arabia spent
on Treasuries and arms and recycled the leftovers as deposits in U.S. banks.
(In the wake of the OPEC shocks of the 1970s, that recycling of petrodollars
led to the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s.) The old paradigm worked…
…until it didn’t:
the U.S. is now less reliant on oil from the Middle East owing to the shale revolution,
while China is the largest importer of oil; security relations are in flux (see here);
Saudi holdings of U.S. Treasuries and bank deposits are down as the kingdom
went from funding the U.S. government and banks to owning equity in firms;
and the Saudi crown prince said recently that the kingdom could reduce its
investments in the U.S. (see here). Similar patterns hold in other GCC countries.
The “new paradigm” between China, Saudi Arabia, and GCC countries is
fundamentally different from the one struck aboard USS Quincy. Naturally so,
as China is now dealing with a rich Middle East, whereas FDR was dealing with a
Middle East that had just started to develop. With wealth, power and priorities shift:
back then, “liquidity and security” were more important for an emerging region;
today, “equity and respect” are more important for what has become an eminent region.
That is what China offered: “all-dimensional energy cooperation” means not just taking
oil for cash and arms but investing in the region in the “downstream sector”
and leveraging the regional know-how for cooperation in the “upstream sector”
– “upstream” could potentially mean the joint exploration of oil in the South China Sea.
Furthermore, Xi’s “all-dimensional energy cooperation” also means working in
cooperation on the “localized production of new energy equipment” (see here).
Put differently, “oil for development” (plants and jobs) crowded out “oil for arms” –
the Belt and Road Initiative met Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 in a big win-win…

Dot
Dot
January 3, 2023 2:33 pm

TBH bern

I prefer College Football to NFL.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 2:34 pm

Key questions for 2023.
What will the reactions be to:
The US cycling negative (pcp) inflation data at some point;
US house prices turning negative (yoy) as defined by the Case-Shiller index;
How long it takes for the world to adjust to the BOJ forcing up Japanese bond yields.

Keep in mind the US cycling lower energy prices in 2023 will be a huge relief.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 2:35 pm

Part 2.

Sorry it’s long everyone.

Third, the “new paradigm” will not be funded with U.S. dollars:
President Xi noted that “the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange
[…] will be fully utilized for RMB settlement in oil and gas trade”. President Xi’s
comments that “China will continue to import large quantities of crude oil on a
long-term basis from GCC countries, and purchase more LNG” underscores the
gravity of the underlined quote: combined, the two basically say that China,
already the largest buyer of oil and gas from GCC countries, will buy even more
in the future, and wants to pay for all of it in renminbi over the next three to five years.
Again, think of the timing of this statement in a diplomatic sense: President Xi
communicated his message on “renminbi invoicing” not during the first day of
his visit – when he met only the Saudi leadership – but during the second day of
his visit – when he met the leadership of all the GCC countries – to in part signal…
…GCC oil flowing East + renminbi invoicing = the dawn of the petroyuan.
Good morning!
Given the scope of priority areas in which China plans to work with GCC countries
– the sale of clean energy infrastructure, big data and cloud computing centers,
5G and 6G projects, and cooperation in smart manufacturing and space exploration
as per Xi’s speech – there will be many avenues through which GCC countries
will be able to decumulate the renminbi they earn from selling oil and gas to China.
And if, perish the thought, any GCC country were to accumulate some surplus cash
in “non-convertible” renminbi, just as President Xi’s plane was landing in Riyadh,
the PBoC revealed that during 2022, it had re-started gold purchases with gusto.
Why do China’s gold purchases matter in the context of renminbi settlement?
Because at the 2018 BRICS Summit, China launched a renminbi-denominated
oil futures contract on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and since
2016 and 2017, the renminbi has been convertible to gold on the Shanghai
and Hong Kong Gold Exchanges, respectively. Not a bad deal, this renminbi…
Paraphrasing Forrest Gump, “you can spend it on solar panels, wind turbines,
data centers, telecommunications equipment, or space projects to create jobs,
or you can just recycle it at some bank or just convert it to good old gold bars.
Money is as money does, and convertibility to gold beats convertibility to dollars”.
President Xi’s “three- to five-year horizon” means that by 2025, the GCC may be
paid in renminbi for all of the oil and gas that they will be shipping east to China.
Fourth, “plumbing” references in Xi’s speech add further gravity to the above…
When was the last time you heard a head of state talk about swap lines and
central bank digital currencies (CBDC)? And not just any CBDC, but a specific one:
“the m-CBDC Bridge project” (see here).
The m-CBDC Bridge project, or as the BIS likes to refer to it, Project mBridge,
is a masterclass in plumbing: undertaken by the PBoC, the Bank of Thailand,
the HKMA, and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates, the project
enables real-time, peer-to-peer, cross-border, and foreign exchange transactions
using CBDCs, and does so without involving the U.S. dollar or the network of Western
correspondent banks that the U.S. dollar system runs on. Pretty interesting, no?
In a very Uncle Sam-like fashion (see here), China wants more of the GCC’s oil,
wants to pay for it with renminbi, and wants the GCC to accept e-renminbi on
the m-CBDC Bridge platform, so don’t hesitate – join the mBridge fast train…
27 December 2022
War and Commodity Encumbrance 4
And finally, President Xi’s reference to starting “currency swap cooperation”,
reminded me of using swap lines as analogues of the Lend-Lease agreement
whereby the U.S. lent dollars to Britain to buy arms to fight Germany during WWII:
now we fight climate change and if you don’t earn renminbi to build NEOM,
no problem at all, we can swap your local currency for my local currency
whereby I lend you some renminbi and then you can buy the stuff you need,
and when you will start selling me oil for renminbi, you can pay off the swap lines.
All I care about is that you don’t pay for imports from me in U.S. dollars, because
I have enough U.S. dollars already and I don’t want to add to my sanctions risk.
The “m-CBDC Bridge project” offers further leads down the monetary rabbit hole:
I didn’t understand “why” when I first read about Russia requesting oil payments
from India in United Arab Emirates dirhams, but now I do: dirhams “appeal” to
Russia because the Central Bank of the UAE is a member of m-CBDC Bridge,
and so dirhams can be sold for renminbi using central bank digital currencies
and thus away from the Western banking system. This does not necessarily
have to go through the m-CBDC Bridge project per se, but the existence of it
implies that some CBDCs are already interlinked to facilitate interstate payments
“off the Western system”. Then, perhaps inspired by Russia’s payment request,
on December 6th, Bloomberg ran a story about India and the UAE working on a
rupee-dirham payment mechanism to bypass the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade, a
mechanism that will include payments for oil and gas purchases from the UAE.
Do take a step back and consider… that since the beginning of this year, 2022,
Russia has been selling oil to China for renminbi, and to India for UAE dirhams;
India and the UAE are working on settling oil and gas trades in dirhams by 2023;
and China is asking the GCC to “fully” utilize Shanghai’s exchanges to settle all
oil and gas sales to China in renminbi by 2025. That’s dusk for the petrodollar…
…and dawn for the petroyuan. Now on to the topic of commodity encumbrance.
In money and banking, the word “encumbrance” is typically used in the context
of transactions involving collateral: if collateral is pledged to a specific trade,
it’s referred to as “encumbered”, which means it can’t be used to do other trades.
If encumbrance becomes extreme, collateral gets scarce, which typically shows up
as interest rates on scarce pieces of collateral trading deeply below OIS rates…
Under Bretton Woods III, a system in which commodities are collateral,
encumbrance means that commodities can get scarce in certain parts of the world
– and that scarcity shows up as inflation “printing” far above inflation targets…
To see what encumbrance means in the context of the oil and gas markets today,
let’s start with the geographic scope of OPEC+, that is, OPEC plus Russia:
the original founding members of OPEC were the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq,
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Venezuela in 1960, which were later joined by
Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967),
Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), Gabon (1975), Angola (2007),
Equatorial Guinea (2017), and Congo (2018). Russia joined OPEC in 2016 –
a union that forged OPEC+. Think of OPEC+ as follows: Russia, Iran, the GCC,
Latin American producers, North African producers, West African producers,
and Indonesia. I left out Iraq, where ISIS is complicating the overall picture,
but the rest of the groupings show how China is starting to dominate OPEC+:
First, Russia and China have their famous special relationship, and since the
outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, China has been paying for Russian oil in renminbi
at a steep discount. As President Putin remarked, “China drives a hard bargain”.

Big_Nambas
Big_Nambas
January 3, 2023 2:35 pm

rosie says:
January 3, 2023 at 12:57 pm

reiner fuellmich

?
Surely you’re having a lend.
How did those 4th July 2021 international criminal court ‘Nurnberg Trials’ go?
Or the PCR pandemic?

Actually a very real person and a true skeptic, not a member of Rosie’s mRNA church, that’s for sure.

sfw
sfw
January 3, 2023 2:36 pm

Farmer Gez, I got the first and second jabs as late as possible when Diktator Dan made them mandatory to work. I didn’t want to, but unlike the purest of the pure here I didn’t have a choice if I wanted to keep a roof over the families heads and pay the bills. After the second one I got shingles, some of it in the worst possible place and ever since I’ve struggled for energy. Things I used to love doing no longer interest me much and I have to force myself to get out and work and do things. I’ve always enjoyed working and never understood people who don’t like work.

Anyway I thought it was just me, however over the past few months I’ve been talking to others and I’m amazed at how many have a similar malaise. The last week or so I’ve felt a bit more energetic so hoping it’s on the way out.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 2:37 pm

x1000 Dot.

Dot
Dot
January 3, 2023 2:38 pm

What do you think of the bickering?

Dean MacRae is being a very good State President. He’s a bit bewildered and slightly miffed like me.

The SGM to bring things to a head is a good idea.

JC
JC
January 3, 2023 2:38 pm

Last one part 3.

Second, Iran and China have also had a special relationship since March 27, 2021
– the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership – a 25-year “deal” under which
China committed to invest $400 billion into Iran’s economy in exchange for a
steady supply of Iranian oil at a steep discount. The deal included $280 billion
toward developing downstream petrochemical sectors (refining and plastics)
and $120 billion toward Iran’s transportation and manufacturing infrastructure.
Specifically, under the agreement, “China will be able to buy any and all Iranian
oil, gas, and petrochemical products at a minimum guaranteed discount of
12 percent to the six-month rolling mean price of comparable benchmark products,
plus another 6 to 8 percent on top for risk-adjusted compensation” (see here).
This means that Iran is selling its oil to China at about the same price as Russia,
or maybe in reverse, as the Iran deal predates the post-Ukraine prices for Russia!
Third, Venezuela has been accepting payments for oil in renminbi since 2019
(see here) and has also been selling oil to China at steep discounts (see here).
Fourth, Xi’s GCC “pitch” was similar to the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
with Iran – investments in downstream petrochemical projects, manufacturing,
and infrastructure – plus some higher value-added projects for Saudi Arabia
to aid Riyadh’s Silicon Valley aspirations. Because the GCC aren’t sanctioned,
China didn’t ask for any steep discounts, but it did ask for renminbi settlement.
Let’s stop here for a moment. Russia, Iran, and Venezuela account for about
40 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, and each of them are currently selling
oil to China for renminbi at a steep discount. The GCC countries account for
40 percent of proven oil reserves as well – Saudi Arabia has a half of that,
and the other GCC countries the other half – and are being courted by China
to accept renminbi for their oil in exchange for transformative investments –
the “new paradigm” we discussed above. To underscore, the U.S. has sanctioned
half of OPEC with 40 percent of the world’s oil reserves and lost them to China,
while China is courting the other half of OPEC with an offer that’s hard to refuse…
The remaining 20 percent of proven oil reserves are in North and West Africa
and Indonesia. Geopolitically, North Africa is dominated by Russia at present
(see here), West Africa by China, and Indonesia has its own agenda (see below).
Commodity encumbrance here means that over the next “three to five years”,
China will not only pay for more oil in renminbi (crowding out the U.S. dollar),
but new investments in downstream petrochemical industries in Iran, Saudi Arabia,
and the GCC more broadly mean that in the future, much more value-added
will be captured locally at the expense of industries in the West. Think of this
as a “farm-to-table” model: I used to sell my chicken and vegetables to you,
and you sold soup for a markup in your five-star restaurant, but from now on,
I’ll make the soup myself and you’ll get to import it in a can – my oil, my jobs,
your spend, “our commodity, your problem. “Our commodity, our emancipation”.
Commodity encumbrance has had its first major casualty in Europe already:
BASF’s decision to permanently downsize its operations at its main plant in
Ludwigshafen and instead shift its chemical operations to China was motivated
by the fact that China is securing energy at discounts, not markups like Europe.
Collateral encumbrance means encumbrance from the perspective of someone
pledging collateral to a dealer. Dealers in turn rehypothecate pledged collateral.
Commodity rehypothecation will work the same way: heavily discounted oil and
locally produced chemicals invoiced in renminbi mean encumbrance by the East,
and the marginal re-export of oil and chemicals also for renminbi to the West
means commodity rehypothecation for a profit, i.e., an “East-to-West” spread…
27 December 2022
War and Commodity Encumbrance 6
We are starting to see examples of commodity rehypothecation already:
China became a big exporter of Russian LNG to Europe, and India a big exporter
of Russian oil and refined products such as diesel to Europe (see here and here).
We should expect more “rehypothecation” in the future across more products
and invoiced not just in euros and dollars, but also renminbi, dirhams, and rupees.
But commodity encumbrance has a darker, “institutional” aspect to it too…
What I described above is a de facto state of affairs, in which Russia, Iran, and
Venezuela have effectively pledged their resources to the BRICS and Belt and Road
“cause”, and China is courting the GCC to do the same under a “new paradigm”.
But there is also a de jure version of the commodity encumbrance theme, and
here is where a recent speech by President Putin comes in. On June 22, 2022,
at the BRICS Business Forum – a WEF-like meeting of the “G7 of the East” –
President Putin noted that “the creation of an international reserve currency
based on a basket of currencies of our countries is being worked on” (see here).
This “reserve currency project” took off after China failed to reform the SDR,
and its antecedents were chronicled in a recent book by Zoe Liu and Mihaela Papa:
Can the BRICS De-Dollarize the Global Financial System (see here). The book
was funded by the Rising Power Alliances Project at the Fletcher School of
Tufts University, which in turn was funded by the U.S. Department of Defense.
It would seem to me that if the DoD has a keen interest in the topic of
de-dollarization, market participants should have one as well, and should also add
commodity encumbrance to the list. Now back to Putin’s “BRICS coin” idea…
When a G7 rates strategist or trader starts looking at the “G7 of the East”,
he or she will realize that institutions and people are different, but they do exist.
Regarding the development of an “international reserve currency” à la the SDR,
Sergei Glazyev has been in charge. Since 2019, Glazyev has been serving as
minister in charge of integration and macroeconomics of the EEC, that is, the
Eurasian Economic Commission. He strikes me as someone similar to Liu He,
who President Xi introduced to a former U.S. national security advisor saying:
“This is Liu He. He is very important to me”. Given his recent progress report
on “BRICS coin”, Sergei Glazyev seems to be very important to President Putin.
Regarding “institutionalized commodity encumbrance”, the comments I could find
about the “BRICS coin” project from Glazyev revolve around the methodology
to determine the weight of each participating currency in the “coin”. Specifically:
“should [a nation] reserve a portion of [its] natural resources for the backing
of the new economic system, [its] respective weight in the currency basket of
the new monetary unit would increase accordingly, providing that nation with
larger currency reserves and credit capacity. In addition, bilateral swap lines
with trading partner countries would provide them with adequate financing for
co-investments and trade financing” (see here). Hm. Swap lines again to facilitate
trade and investments, and a de jure vision for commodity encumbrance in
exchange for boosting a country’s “credit line” in an alternative economic system.
It seems to me that “new paradigms” come in pairs…
Attention needs to be paid to the goings-on of the global East and South,
especially given that this year Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran have all started
their application to the BRICS (see here). Furthermore, following this year’s
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Samarkand, the SCO
– “the NATO of the East” – granted dialogue partner status to “half the GCC”
– Saudi Arabia and Qatar – and started procedures to admit Iran as a member…
27 December 2022
War and Commodity Encumbrance 7
In Riyadh, President Xi referred to “a garden of civilizations” in the context of the
Belt and Road Initiative (see here). Unless they involve Adam, Eve, and a snake,
gardens typically refer to a happy and peaceful place. Now consider that if
Russia and Iran get along, China and Iran get along, Russia and Saudi Arabia
get along, and China and Saudi Arabia get along, then the foreign ministers of
Saudi Arabia and Iran engaging in what the FT called “friendly talks” last week
(see here) means more momentum for Belt and Road, BRICS+, and “BRICS coin”.
Indeed, for the Belt and Road Initiative to work, the region has to be a
peaceful “garden of civilizations”, and for “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”
to work, a Great Power needs to befriend the enemy of a rival Great Power.
But that strategy is increasingly hard to implement in the Middle Eastern “region”
of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): the great powers of the Eurasian landmass
– China and Russia – are bound by a “special relationship”, and each of them
have good a relationship with each of the great powers of the Middle East, and
all of them have much to gain from building a new economic and monetary system.
The China-GCC Summit is one thing, and China’s strategic partnership with Iran
is another, but both Saudi Arabia and Iran applying to pillar institutions of the
multipolar world order – BRICS+ and the SCO – at the same exact time,
plus the idea of “BRICS coin” as a commodity-weighted neutral reserve asset
that encourages members to pledge their commodities to the BRICS “cause”,
should have G7 bond investors concerned, because these trends may keep
inflation from slowing and interest rates from falling for the rest of this decade.
Finally, the de facto and de jure commodity encumbrance themes described
above have an even graver inflationary undertone if you consider the following:
over the past decade, all growth in global oil production came from U.S. shale
and other non-conventional sources such as Canadian tar sands. We know
from official comments following President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia that
the kingdom is currently “pumping” at capacity and will be able to boost output
by only one million barrels per day by 2025 and then “no more”. In light of that,
consider that production from shale fields has peaked and recall some recent
comments from the largest shale operator in the U.S. that more drilling would
harm the shale industry (see here). It appears to me that unless the U.S.
nationalizes shale oil fields and starts to drill for oil itself to boost production,
over the next three to five years, we’re looking at an inelastic supply of oil and gas…
…and of that inelastic supply:
(1) China will get a bigger share at a discount, invoiced in renminbi.
(2) China will export more downstream products at a wider margin, and…
(3) China will lure more firms like BASF with discounted energy bills.
(4) Iran, with Chinese capital, will do more downstream exports too, and…
(5) GCC countries, with Chinese capital, ditto, most likely for renminbi.
The “new paradigm”, as I see it, comes with a theme of “emancipation”:
both sanctioned and non-sanctioned members of OPEC, with Chinese capital,
are going to adopt the “farm-to-table” model in which they will not just sell oil
but will also refine more of it and process more of it into high value-added
petrochemical products. Given supply constraints over “the next three to five years”,
this will likely be at the expense of refiners and petrochemical firms in the West,
and also growth in the West. All this means much less domestic production and
more inflation as steadily price-inflating alternatives are imported from the East.
And this is not just about oil and gas…
27 December 2022
War and Commodity Encumbrance 8
Earlier this year, President Widodo of Indonesia (an OPEC member since 1962)
called for an OPEC-style cartel for battery metals for EVs. Resource nationalism
is in the air, but markets don’t seem to price it as a potential driver of inflation.
Consider that shortly after President Widodo floated his idea on October 30, 2022,
on November 15, 2022, the G7 gave Indonesia $20 billion to move away from coal
(see here). Then, on December 14, 2022, the G7 gave Vietnam $15 billion too
(see here) to do the same. Great Powers are spending a lot to keep commodities
and friend-shoring locations in their orbit at affordable prices. One would suspect
these “outlays” are a part of the G7’s $600 billion earmarked to counter China’s
Belt and Road Initiative (see here). Here is the point: major amounts of money
are being mobilized to cut off big, fat tail risks to inflation, and to re-emphasize…
…five-year forward five-year breakeven inflation expectations do not price
geopolitical risk. I also believe that most inflation traders may not appreciate that
the future path of inflation in the West is being “bought” in $15 to $20 billion “clips”
one commodity and one region at a time – commodity encumbrance is a real risk.
Commodity encumbrance cuts in the other direction too…
Consider that on November 3, 2022, Canada ordered three Chinese firms to
exit lithium mining (see here). In simple terms, commodity encumbrance means…
…a total war for the control of commodities.
President Xi’s “next three to five years” of implementing the “new paradigm”
and the risks of resource nationalism and “BRICS coin” means this for G7 rates:
when you look at the yield curve and think about the five-year section and then
the forward five-year section, by the time the forward five-year section starts,
President Xi may have accomplished his “next three- to five-year” goal of paying
for China’s oil and gas imports exclusively in renminbi and may have advanced
commodity encumbrance by developing downstream petrochemical industries
in the Middle East “region” of Belt and Road and also the rollout of “BRICS coin”.
I don’t think five-year forward five-year rates are pricing the future correctly:
breakevens appear to be blind to geopolitical risks and the likelihood of the above.
If the above scenario won’t come to pass, it will be due to a big, global fight…
But a fight like that takes time to conclude, and in its wake, forward five-years
should still be different. Or maybe not, if yield curve control funds reconstruction,
but under that scenario, bond investors will be subject to financial repression…
Five-year forward five-year breakeven inflation expectations now make little sense.
For two generations of investors, geopolitics did not matter. This time is different:
it’s time to get real and it’s time to start pricing the secular end of “lowflation”…
Recognize two things: first, that inflation has been driven by non-linear shocks
(a pandemic; stimulus; supply chain issues involving laptops, chips, and cars;
post-pandemic labor shortages; and then the war in Ukraine), and second, that
inflation forecasts treat geopolitics in the rearview mirror. Don’t be too DSGE…
…think about inflation with geopolitics, resource nationalism, and “BRICS coin”
in mind as the next set of non-linear shocks that will keep inflation above target,
forcing central banks to hike interest rates above 5% and keep them high as they…
…“clean up” the inflation mess caused by Great Power conflict.
This year was just the beginning. Next year sets the stage for BRICS and the BRI:
in April, China will host the fourth Belt and Road Forum (the WEF of the East).
Following forums in 2017 and 2019, but not 2021 due to Covid, the coming forum
will be hosted by a China that, while in lockdown, forged a bond with all of OPEC+.

bespoke
bespoke
January 3, 2023 2:39 pm

That incident caused Runnybum (who has obviously died of Covid) to dub me Biggles.

You’re a legend…

Dot
Dot
January 3, 2023 2:39 pm

Keep in mind the US cycling lower energy prices in 2023 will be a huge relief.

…let’s hope not.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 2:39 pm

“m-CBDC Bridge project”

JC, you’ll set Custard off.
Or maybe JC is Q …

thefrollickingmole
thefrollickingmole
January 3, 2023 2:39 pm

On Kruddster.
Yes, he will be bound not to make direct public statements without approval from Canbra.
But be prepared for an avalanche of “highly placed diplomatic sources” and “a senior embassy official familiar with the issue” stories.

Can you imagine the “leakage” if Trump (or any republican really) actually became president again?
Krudds diplomacy would consist of not only spitting the dummy and overturning the pram, but setting the pram and a shitty nappy alight on the white house lawn.

feelthebern
feelthebern
January 3, 2023 2:42 pm

What do you mean dot?
The US will be cycling lower energy prices.
While Australia will be cycling higher energy prices.

sfw
sfw
January 3, 2023 2:42 pm

Ken Block dead.

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